Baseball’s Winter Meetings started yesterday in Orlando. We’ll update Reds-related rumors from today on this thread. Check back during the day. If you see a report we haven’t included yet, post it in the comments and we’ll add it.

Starting with a couple reports from the West Coast:

10:25 pm (12/11): This column by Susan Slusser, a terrific baseball reporter for the San Francisco Chronicle, lists Adam Duvall as a player the Oakland A’s have interest in, along with other outfielders.

11 pm (12/11): Yesterday, the San Francisco Giants were linked to interest in Billy Hamilton and Duvall. Chronicle reporter Henry Schulman suggests that the development of Giants prospect Steven Duggar in the Fall League makes acquisition of a centerfielder, like Hamilton, less necessary. San Francisco may look for a short-term “caretaker” CF to hold the job until Duggar is ready, possibly the 2018 season.

To me, that sounds like a reason the Giants won’t sign Lorenzo Cain to a pricey 3-year contract. Billy Hamilton has two more seasons before he’s a free agent.

10 am: It’s Luis Castillo’s birthday. Reminder of a trade that went pretty well for the Reds last January.

11 am: Zach Buchanan tweets that a team asked about Nick Senzel.

12:30 pm: Guess we’ll have to settle for news on former Reds for now. Jon Heyman reporting that several teams interested in Jay Bruce, who is a free agent. Mets, Rockies, Blue Jays and Mariners among them. I figured Cleveland would try to get Bruce back. Teams looking for power at corner outfield could trade for Adam Duvall and get a younger, less expensive player.

1:05 pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post says Yankees looking for 2B. Preferably not expensive and hits LH. Scooter Gennett is a perfect fit for that. Sherman also reports in a different tweet that clubs believe the Marlins will trade both OF, Ozuna and Yelich.

2:10 pm: Serious question, would you trade Nick Senzel straight up for Christian Yelich? Yelich is under contract through 2021 plus a $15 million team option in 2022 (age 30 season).

2:15 pm: Ken Rosenthal says Reds continue to draw interest on OF. Clearing a spot for Winker, which makes sense.

3:15 pm: BREAKING: Talks between Reds and Giants regarding Billy Hamilton are “serious” and could be finished this week. Other teams, including Rangers still involved. Zach Buchanan with the big scoop. See separate thread.

46 Responses

  1. scottya

    We now know what prospects the Marlins like so, although Hamilton and Duvall probably won’t yield all 3??: 1. Tyler Beede 2. Heliot Ramos 3. Chris Shaw. Swap them + in a Three team deal for Yelich.

    If we add Yelich at CF (4war). 40+ war as a team is possible if all are healthy in 18′ (see fangraphs 2018 zips Projections) We are appx 32-36 right now.

    • Ernie Howerton

      Not trying to be disrespectful but HOF in what league?

      • Scott Carter

        My thoughts as well. I think Duvall is a solid player. But future HOF sounds a little like hyperbole.

  2. IndyRedMan

    Would Cain cost any more then Cozart? 15 HRs and an .803 ops isn’t overwhelming so I’m thinking $45 mil/ 3yrs? Yelich is younger and cheaper but he’d prob cost Stephenson or Mahle, etc, etc? Cain is a WS champion coming off a career high opb of .363. He’ll be 32 next year, but kind of reminds me of Torii Hunter and he was good til he was 38! He’s good defensively and might pull off 20/20 in Cincinnati. KC is a pitchers paradise. Mesoraco will be off the books after this year and they’d trade Billy so the budget wouldn’t be too crazy. Ozuna would be the big haul so prob Cubs or St. Louis:(

    • Michael Smith

      I dont know if they return the call without Mahle and Trammel nor should they.

    • Thomas Jefferson

      There is an extra cost: Cain rejected a QO, so he requires compensation from the team that signs him. The Reds would have to give up a high draft pick (I think it would be their extra 2nd round pick) if they were to sign a FA who rejected a QO.

  3. davemoorewvu

    Listening to MLB Network Radio.. They’re under the belief that we are years away from competing, and that we should trade Votto for prospects. I refuse to believe that we are that far away. Maybe I’m blinded by being a fan, but I really think if the right moves were made, we could compete in 2018.

    • TR

      It’s always been that way. The Cincinnati Reds are under the radar until they win.

      • Colorado Red

        There stay under the radar even if we win.
        Example the 90 WS Champ Reds, still got no respect.

    • Kyle Farmer

      I love MLB Network. Darn near the only thing I watch but it’s scary how misinformed their main guys are on the Reds. I get why, but I wonder if they are putting out the same misinformed opinions on pretty much every other team in flyover country as well.

  4. Old-school

    Great thread.
    The reds aren’t adding payroll or even.mid level FA in 2018, with $35 million in payroll to Bailey and Mesoraco. Hopefully they can build momentum for the winning window to start in 2019. A lot of these players may be July deadline moves…..Hamilton would be incredible player to add to a playoff team for the stretch run……Duvall and his power bat likewise and Gennett with lefty pop.
    I don’t see these guys as big time core additions to anyone that will retrieve a super future player. Iglesias on the hand …packaged could…..but don’t see that happening.

    • Steve Mancuso

      Agree Reds aren’t going to dive into FA market, nor should they. But they have room to add payroll. Williams and Price have both indicated that. Spent $115 million in 2014, on the old TV contract. Payroll with this team right now is about $95 million.

      • Old-school

        Hope so. Not resigning Cozart and trading Hamilton and clearing his $5 million would allow a nice extension to Suarez and some budgeting to acquire some strategic younger but major league ready players that fit the next winning window. If DW were to do that…..a successful offseason.

        The Reds aren’t adding any Cain’s/Cozarts or Lance Lynn’s to payroll was the point I didn’t make so well.

  5. Shchi Cossack

    Before delving into a potential trade with the Fish, some Old Cossack perspective feels appropriate. The Fish finally dumped Stanton and his contract and got thoroughly fleeced by the Yankees, Stanton and Soria in the process. Not only did the Fish not dump the entire contract, but they got nothing of value in return. The Fish also dumped Gordon’s contract but acheived a reasonable return during the transaction. Even with those two transactions, the Fish still need to dump salary.

    $13.5MM for Martin Prado ($15.0MM for 2019)
    $13.0MM for Edinson Volquez
    $10.9MM for Marcel Ozuna (2nd year arbitration estimate)
    $10.9MM for Starlin Castro ($12.9MM for 2019 with club option)
    $9.00MM for Brad Zeigler
    $7.00MM for Christian Yelich ($37.5MM through 2021 + club option for 2022)

    The Reds need a SS and CF upgrade with the loss of Cozart and the lack of development from Hamilton. The pitching rotation needs a complete shakeout of internal options rather than external additions. I believe the pitching talent is available internally, just untapped. The Reds have a war chest available to fill their needs, but although the needs can be identified, the timing to fill those needs is still undetermined.

    Moving Yelich or Ozuna does not resolve the financial constrains on the Fish, but does lose young talent on a team set up for a complete rebuild. If the Reds (or anyone else) want to pry Yelich or Ozuna away from the Marlins, they almost need to include aquiring a bad contract (Zeigler or Prado) in the process unless they intend to overpay in prospects returned to the Fish. Otherwise, moving Yelich or Ozuna doesn’t really do the Fish any good.

    Enough of the Old Cossack perspective and on to the potential trade with the Fish.

    The Reds can probably resign Cozart to fill the gap at SS or complete a trade with the Fish for Yelich while absorbing a bad contract but not both. By absorbing a bad contract in the trade for Yelich, the prospect cost will be reduced and payroll reduction is still a priority for the Fish. I would like to see the Reds resign Cozart, but the market for Cozart will probably take some time before being resolved and the markets for Ozuna and Yelich are primed and ready to go as early as the winter meetings. The Fish may only need to move one of Yelich and Ozuna in order to get their payroll under the $90MM target.

    I’m not interested in Ozuna at all since he only has team control for 2 seasons and one of those seasons would be completely unresolved and possibly (probably) non-competitive for the Reds. One year of control during an anticipated competitive season is simply not enough to justify the financial cost of absorbing the bad contrct and the loss of prospects needed to complete the deal.

    In dealing with the Fish, Yelich, with his extended team control on a reasonable contract, is the only realistic target for the Reds. The Reds should offer Big Sal or Lorenzen, along with Billy Hamilton and LaValley for Yelich while absorbing Prado’s contract. If the Fish want more in a prospect return, then substitute Zeigler’s contract for Prado’s contract in the deal and sweeten the prospect pot (while keeping an eye on Cozart!)

    • IndyRedMan

      Good stuff!! I cannot believe Miami gave out that many bad contracts? You should be forced out by MLB if you’re that stupid? Nobody even cares about baseball in south Florida? Long term though….couldn’t they pay Ozuna with Homer’s $? Yelich is a nice player, but the damage Ozuna could do in GABP would be staggering!!

      • Shchi Cossack

        The timing for an Ozuna extention is a problem, along with the arbitration costs for 2018 & 2019. In order to extend Ozuna, the Reds would have to pull the trigger as soon as they obtain his contract in 2018, which would include his arbitration salaries for 2018 and 2019 at a premium and then a probable 8-year year extention on top of buying out the final two arbitration seasons. After 2018, Ozuna would not consider an extention with only one season remaining until free agency and already pocketing over $12MM in career earnings..

    • PDunc

      What could a trade for Yelich and Castro look like? Is there anyway that the Reds fit both in their payroll? Would take 2 big contracts off the Marlin’s books and fill the Reds needs at CF and SS. Castro would also add another right-handed bat to the Reds lineup.
      Suarez, Winker, Senzel, and Castillo are untouchable. Offer Trammel + young pitching as a start.
      Even offer Trammel + Greene. Both are high upside prospects the Marlins would want. But timeline for either doesn’t exactly match up with the current Reds core.

      • Chris Miller

        You want to deal Trammel and Greene? Really? Also, Castro is not someone we want, nor does he play even a remotely decent SS, defensively.

    • VaRedsFan

      @ Cossack – Where does Prado play? Would he block Senzel at 2nd? Could he play 3rd, Suarez to SS, Senzel call up to play 2nd?

      • Shchi Cossack

        Prado would play a utility role if retained by the Reds, at least without considering Price’s lineup construction. More probably, the Reds would handle Prado like they handled Phillips and eat a good portion of the contract to move as much of the contract as possible, irrespective of any prospect return. The costs of Prado’s contract would simply be a cost of completing the transaction to obtain Yelich. Lots of teams take on bad contracts to obtain good players without gutting their prospects for the future. In this situation, i think it would be an effective use of the money that’s been set aside. The expiration of Mesoraco’s and Bailey’s contracts will provide the cash infusion needed going forward.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      I agree with your analysis and insight. This is one instance where I would make just about anyone the Marlins want to talk about except for Senzel, Votto, Castillo and Barnhart open for discussion in a package involving Yelich. And, yes, I think they will require taking back a bad contract. But for four (and possibly five) years control of a player who has performed like Yelich has, you bring out the big guns and see what you can make happen.

  6. Ethan L

    Please trade Duvall and BHam! While they’re at it, ship out Scooter, and shop Schebler. I hope they make these deals.

  7. scottya

    Someone asked about Senzel and the GM said ummm no. This just lets us know DW is shopping for the BIG FISH!

    • Colorado Red

      If that is true, the Reds need to jump on it.

  8. Colorado Red

    Any thoughts are the return for Nick? I would have a boatload to trade someone like him.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      You don’t trade him if you believe he could be one of the next great MLB hitters, and apparently Dick Williams does.

  9. Scooter Rolen

    Anybody have a guess as what the Yanks might give us for Scooter? Does he have enough of a peak for a top 100 prospect?

    • IndyRedMan

      Scooter is a hometown boy and could easily pull off Suarez/Yelich type ops vs righties, but everyone wants to trade him? I wouldn’t really be on board exactly, but I could see a fit with the Yankees for Chad Green or Tommy Kahnle. Of course trading for relievers is a crap shoot in itself but Iggy needs quality help!

      • Scooter Rolen

        If the Reds were to trade Scooter, they need to know who their next 2B is. That could be by getting a better or younger one in a trade, or finding him in our system (Senzel?)

        The OF is a situation where we need playing time for Winker and could improve from Hamilton’s offense. Until we know that Senzel can play 2B (I don’t think we already know) then there doesn’t seem to be a replacement yet for Scooter – Peraza is currently SS and Herrera is a big question mark. I suppose the Reds might try to add playing time for Herrera by trading Scooter, but Senzel is probably the reason if the Reds do in fact attempt a trade of Scooter.

  10. Scooter Rolen

    I would prefer Senzel over Yelich, just because it seems that the Reds have more depth in minors and majors for OF, while the IF is still missing pieces as it is. Also it is still unknown whether Yelich will end up being a better ML player than Senzel. Finally, Senzel is much cheaper.

  11. scottya

    No way I would trade Senzel! I would trade Hunter Greene however for Yelich. Senzel is a lock, in my opinion. Greene may be great, but a lot more risk.

  12. davemoorewvu

    Mark Sheldon is doing a Facebook love right now. He just said there’s zero chance that we trade for Yelich or Ozuna. Actually kinda laughed about it while answering the question.

    • Steve Mancuso

      He’s right about Ozuna. For Reds purposes, grouping those two together to talk about them doesn’t make any sense. Ozuna has 2 years of contract left, Yelich has 4 plus option. I’d be surprised if the Reds weren’t one of the teams asking about Yelich. Marlins are trying to trade Ozuna first and reports out there say the Cardinals are the lead team.

  13. Muso

    Gennett for Clint Frazier and Chad Greene…

  14. Scooter Rolen

    Buchanan is now saying that a Hamilton-SFG deal could be done by this week and that talks are now “serious.”

  15. Old-school

    The reds were prepared to go to a 6 man pitching rotation to accommodate Ohtani. That’s outside the box.

  16. Redhaze

    I just heard the Reds may be interested in Yovanni Gallardo. I would rather have Feldman back in the fifth spot of the rotation. 90 loss seasons are getting old fast. Lets lose the rebuild now.