Hot Stove

Monday Reds Rumors from the Hot Stove

Baseball’s Winter Meetings started today in Orlando. We’ll update Reds-related rumors from today on this thread. Check back during the day. If you see a report on the interwebs that we haven’t included yet, post it in the comments and we’ll add it.

11 am: So far, there’s a Joel Sherman report about a possible fit with the Giants for both Billy Hamilton and Adam Duvall. No mention of what the Giants might return in a deal like that.

12 noon: Here are a few lists of Giants prospects: Baseball America, John SicklesMLB Prospect Watch, Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus. Some of these have been updated more recently than others. Keep in mind that every organization has a Top 10 or Top 20 list. That doesn’t compare the quality to the overall pool. For example, Christian Arroyo (#57) is the only Giants prospect in their Top 100 overall. The Reds have five players on that list: Nick Senzel (#6), Hunter Greene (#18), Taylor Trammell (#68), Tyler Mahle (#78) and Jesse Winker (#100).

1:15 pm: Zach Buchanan confirms reports that San Diego Padres have “real interest” in Zack Cozart. Don’t get your hopes up that Cozart will return to the Reds.

Buchanan: “Toward the end of the season, the Reds expressed some interest in keeping Cozart around for 2018 and beyond. But no extension talks ever materialized, and it’s unclear if the Reds have kept in touch with Cozart’s camp about a potential reunion. If the Reds were to re-sign Cozart, it likely would come only if the shortstop were willing to sign for less than he might receive on the open market.”

4:15 pm: Mark Sheldon reports that Dick Williams says the Reds are looking at relievers more than starters. Of course, not all the pitchers who are in contention to start will make the rotation. Some will have to pitch from the bullpen. Ten names: Castillo, Bailey, DeSclafani, Mahle, Stevenson, Reed, Garrett, Romano, Finnegan and potentially Lorenzen and Rookie Davis (makes 11).

4:25 pm: Not a new rumor, but adding the Texas Rangers to list of teams with possible interest in Billy Hamilton. This quote in yesterday’s article by Zach Buchanan:

“The Reds have more trade chips than they did a year ago, and those chips are much more established. There’s likely to be broad interest in closer Raisel Iglesias, who is locked up for several more years on an affordable deal. Billy Hamilton has drawn interest from the San Francisco Giants and also reportedly the Texas Rangers, both teams in need of a center fielder. Scooter Gennett could possibly interest a team needing a second baseman, although his market has been quiet so far, a source said. Left fielder Adam Duvall has probably drawn the second most interest of Reds players beyond Hamilton, according to that source, although which teams have asked about him isn’t clear.”

4:30: Zach Buchanan has more from Dick Williams’ meeting with reporters this afternoon. Williams says there’s interest in Billy Hamilton but Reds place great value in their centerfielder’s defense.

There’s always interest in Billy Hamilton. But the Reds still value him highly, especially for how his defense helps the team’s young pitching staff. ‘His defense helps our ERA,’ Williams said. ‘He’s got a lot of value and he still has that offensive upside if we can unlock it.’ That said, Williams will never say never when it comes to trade. A year ago, the team waited until January to strike by trading Dan Straily, because their high asking price was met. ‘We feel like we’re in a real stable position and we can just be opportunistic,’ he said.”

That’s a good negotiating position. Of course, it’s possible that the Reds overvalue Hamilton and that will make it hard to find a deal. But the Reds new boss has been much less effusive about Hamilton and has said several times that he wants a leadoff hitter with a higher OBP. I’ve got a lot more confidence in Williams’ assessment of Hamilton than I did of Jocketty’s.

4:45 pm: TR Sullivan, who covers the Texas Rangers for MLB, tweeted this a few hours ago:

5:10 pm: Free agent relievers (Brandon Morrow, Pat Neshek) have signed huge contracts today. Raisel Iglesias would bring back a haul. The Reds should really look to deal him for a big future piece.

5:15 pm: Giants vice president of baseball operations says club will try to avoid signing free agents that are attached to a qualifying offer. That applies to Lorenzo Cain, a centerfielder who many had suggested would be a good match for San Francisco. The Giants’ stance improves the odds of a trade with the Reds for Billy Hamilton.

5:30 pm: What’s the downside of waiting to trade Raisel Iglesais instead of now at peak value? See: Chapman, Aroldis.

5:40: Ben Nicholson-Smith, Blue Jays beat writer posts this report. Really feels like there could be a match here between Blue Jays and Reds. Scooter Gennett and Adam Duvall?

66 thoughts on “Monday Reds Rumors from the Hot Stove

    • I don’t think so myself,but throw Cue to back in a Reds uniform and watch him win 12-15

    • He has played about as much at 3b as he has SS in the minors. I read somewhere that he may not be the best at defense at SS and that is what we need. But he has been a highly rated prospect (top 100). He also doesn’t walk much. I for sure wouldn’t give up both for him unless we get more (hunter Strickland, Austin Slater, Chris Stratton, etc). I would trade Hamilton one for one for arroyo or duvall one for one.

      • On second thought. We don’t need a guy who can play 3b or 2b and not at SS. Unless the scouts are sure he can perform at SS, I’d prefer not the have Arroyo. There seem to be a lot of possible CF’s available: Yelich, Bradley Jr, Kiermeir??, Inciarte??.

        We need a solid SS or CF, not a question mark.

  1. Here’s the Giants top 30 prospects: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=sf

    Stephen Duggar (#7) and Seth Corry (#13) were the names I thought would be interesting. Duggar can play CF and reached AAA last year.

    Corry a LHP who was in rookie ball last year. “He has the athleticism to repeat his delivery and provide more strikes, but he’s still in the process of learning how to do so. The Giants excel at polishing up young pitchers, and Corry gives them a quality left arm to work with.”

  2. This is a situation for a 3 team trade to yield a solid CF. Get the players the other team wants from SF for Duvall and Hamilton and flip them for 1. Yelich 2. Kiermeir 3. Inciarte 4. 3+ war CF

  3. I no the obp folks hate duvall, but he has over 60 hr & 200 rbi in 2 seaons. Hes the guy that is producing and needs to be signed, & his defense is gg caliber. Production counts obp ppl

    • I agree RLS. We finally solve our pathetic LF situation and now everybody wants to trade him.

      • How long will Duvall maintain his current levels of production? He’s aging and has a known health condition. If you can get value for him now, you need to do it, otherwise you’ll be left with a bad LFer in a few years who isn’t worth anything on the open market.

        Sell high.

        Also – look beyond home runs, please. I won’t even talk OBP since the two of you seem to scoff of people who look at it.

        Duvall made 452 outs last year. Out of 647 times at the plate. SEVENTY percent of the time he makes an out. If he’d hit something like 40-45 homers, that’s enough value that you don’t really care… but 31? In the new live ball era, 31 homers isn’t impressive in the least.

        Duvall was a below-average hitter last year, by wRC+, which is the best thing out there to measure total offense, even if you don’t buy into it. He was barely above average the year before.

        His defense is good for the position, yes, but defense declines quickly as a player ages.

        I really don’t understand the aversion to unloading him. He’s probably fine to keep, and probably fine to move. Either way, he’s just not THAT good. He’s “fine.” Not “good.”

  4. Sounds like any trade with the Giants should start with Arroyo. Would a straight swap of Duvall or Hamilton for Arroyo be fair?

    • In my opinion, no. You would be trading one of the top power hitters over the past couple of years or one of the best defensive centerfielders in the game for an unproven prospect. Neither Hamilton nor Duvall is on the verge of free agency, so the Giants would have to surrender more. What, exactly, I don’t know. Doesn’t seem to me to be a good fit if Arroyo is not ready to step in at shortstop.

      • Makes sense, I don’t really know too much about Arroyo other than him being SF’s top prospect. Mainly got caught up in thinking that he was their “best” prospect, but according to BA he is only 4th now. That and he doesn’t match up with the Reds needs to well, other than adding another IF option.

        Honestly, there’s not much in their system that looks good enough to trade for, much less a starting MLBer. I might me missing somebody, or there could be a Duvall-like hidden gem player, but SF doesn’t seem to have much to offer.

      • A guy who has never slugged .500 is one of the top power hitters?

        • ISO, sure… nevermind my stupid comment.

          He’s got power, but can’t get on base.

          I retract.

  5. I’d give Tampa almost whatever they want for Kevin Kiermaier and Blake Snell. Deal Billy wherever and KK/Ervin could platoon in CF and increase the offense by a ton!! Snell could be another Castillo, but he’s a first rounder so Tampa knows what they have.

    • Blake Snell change-o-scenery could be a STUD ACE lefty. He was so dominating in minors, seems like a good buy kinda low(er) than expected risk.

  6. I really don’t see any major changes. The Reds might trade Duvall to open up LF for Winker if they can get a top young bullpen piece ..but they don’t have to do anything.

    They aren’t a playoff team in 2018 and they have a cheap deep outfield and a young cheap shortstop.

    They want to wait and let the mesoraco contract expire….see what Bailey.disco.and and finnegan have plus the young pitchers, see what the timetable is for Siri and Trammell as CF options and sort through the middle inf this year to plan 2019.

    Biggest splash will be a bullpen FA on a team friendly guaranteed contract.

    • Exactly. That is why the Red’s front office is one of the most boring in all of MLB. They expect the fans to attend games, but put a mediocre product on the field…year after year.

      When the have the opportunity to improve during the offseason or at the trading deadline they punt.

      The Chapman, Bruce, Frazier deals were purely to shed salary, they received squat in return.

    • And apparently want to waste another year in which Votto will likely be highly productive. He can’t have many of those left and our beloved Reds have basically wasted 3 of them (2015, 2016, 2017). I won’t count 2014 but because I don’t fault them for not starting the rebuild then, although they should have started it before the AS break that year.

  7. Why are we just discussing prospects in a trade with the Giants? Are there players on the ML roster that would be a better fit? Reds have collected plenty of prospects already. Unless the Giants have a top guy that’s ML ready, and it doesn’t appear they do, unless the trade is for a ML player, move on.

    • I have no idea if the Giants would trade him, but Joe Panik is a good young player for Giants.

      2017 – 1.3 WAR; 10 HR, 53 RBI; .288/.347/.421/.768; 46 BB to 54 SO

      Plays 2B and won a GG there in 2016. Will turn 27 this year, but even though he isn’t super young he is there youngest ML player (FA in 2021). The Giants don’t have many young players or really good prospects.

      Again, not much about what Giants have to offer is a great fit for Reds but they do have some decent IF options – only it doesn’t appear that any of these infielders (Panik or Arroyo) would work at SS, the Reds biggest need in IF. A deal with the Giants would probably turn into a quantity over quality trade.

      • Agree. Panik is a player that would help the Reds, but that would put Peraza at SS…and it’s just me, I don’t think that’s his best position.

  8. The problem for the Reds is they simply have to play Jesse Winker every day in the OF and unless they trade Duvall or Schebler (or maybe Billy), Price simply is going to treat him as either the 25th man on the roster or send him back to Louisville. Adam Duvall would make a great 4th outfielder on a good team. It’s beating a dead horse, but Price won’t bench Duvall/Schebler in favor of the rookie Winker. I think every offseason for 4 years we’ve said, “Everyone knows the Reds need to trade X to make room for Y,” and they continue to disappoint. The Reds simply overvalue the stats Duvall puts up; the only team that would be willing to overpay for Duvall is the Reds and so they will end up holding out for what they would be willing to give up for a player with his skill set. Incredibly disappointing.

    • No…even the Reds will find a place for Winker full-time this year. He’ll be 4 months short of 25 in April. He’s ready! I prefer Duvall over Schebler and I think its pretty obvious when you break it down. Duvall is a much much better defender, and if all they do is trade Duvall (assuming minus Cozart?) then you’re looking at Winker, Schebler, Scooter, Billy, and Tucker vs lefties. That’s a recipe for disaster!

  9. Just saw that Rangers have interest in Hamilton on a streamer on MLB network. I didn’t catch the author or who might be involved from Rangers. Also read Rangers are looking for relief help.

  10. Any deal with the Giants the first name I ask for is Heliot Ramos. Duvall for Heliot Ramos, Shaun Anderson, and Garrett Williams.

  11. In my opinion, Michael Lorenzen has a better chance of unlocking offensive upside next season than Hamilton does. I believe Hamilton has shown us who he is at this point. His number would look a lot better though if he were platooned and primarily hit against RHP. His slash line vs RHP last year was 259/322/351/673. Hamilton with a 320+ OBP is a real valuable player all things combined.

    I wouldn’t mind a Hamilton for Profar deal. Maybe they throw in decent prospect in the deal.

    • I’m down on Billy big-time. I’m a Pacers fan (IU grad) and you can see how Victor Oladipo trained to get in shape and really increased his strength and size! Billy looks exactly the same as 4 years ago. That’s unacceptable with modern weight training and nutrition. These trainers could turn Michael Jackson into Bo Jackson with 1 dedicated off season!!

      • Well … almost … though a roid test would probably turn up a little “magic” in that case. But I agree with what you are saying.

        And Billy’s main issue isn’t his strength. It’s still his willingness to engage a higher level of plate discipline.

  12. I don’t like Williams’ comments about Hamilton. It’s beginning to sound like he really has no intention of trading him and therefore our chances of possibly getting Yelich are dwindling. We probably wouldn’t of gotten Yelich anyway. I suppose we could try and swap Duvall with some prospects for Yelich (or whatever combination makes sense). We can live without Hamilton people! We did long before he even existed and we’ll get along just fine without him. He’s not the only CF’r on the face of the planet. Our world will not end if we don’t have Hamilton. Please trade Hamilton, DW!!!

  13. We have a lot of infielders. And a surplus of LH bats. My Winter Meeting Wish List will be pretty well met if the likely 2018 Regression Champion Scooter Gennett is dealt at the peak of his value.

    • Peak value is hard to say. But , Gennett and schebler strike me as better American league players. . Big lefty bats who can DH and give depth and serve as a 3Rd /4 th outfielder (schebler) or as an extra infielder and emergency starter in the new era of the 7 day DL( Gennett).

      • I doubt Gennett will ever do what he did last year–unless they make the baseballs even more homer-prone. He’s unlikely to get better defensively. He’s a year older, and will never get paid less. If ever there were a strong case for “this guy will never be worth more”, it is Scooter Gennett heading into this season.

  14. It seems there is plenty interest in the guys we should be shopping. Scooter Gennett, Adam Duvall, Billy Hamilton and obviously Raisel Iglesias.

    Now to turn this into a deal that is in our favor!

  15. I’m sorry,you just can’t trade the slugging bat of Adam Duvall and Gold Glove capabilities.We hadn’t that kind of production from left field for a while

    • Duvall is roughly a league average hitter overall, with a good first half and his second half collapse both of the last two years. If it is possible to give him rest during the year and prevent the second half slump he is probably better than Schebler. Being right handed is also a benefit, but that becomes less of a benefit is Gennett gets replaced with a 2B hitting from the right side. To me the biggest concern is Duvall struggling late in the year, which is something you can’t afford in the playoffs. Other than that Duvall and Schebler are similar players with Schebler being the younger version

      • Add in he is already at his prime, so chances are we have seen Duvall’s best, barring a serious off-season committment to building better dog-days stamina.

        The other thing all these Duvall proponents forget, he has value to other clubs, meaning we can get a good return. Schebler doesn’t have that same value.

        I agree with most though, if we traded Duvall, even with his second half collapses, we need to get the better end of the deal (i.e. most agree Reds did very well). Trading him for some 25 year old mediocre non-top-10 prospect stuck in AA ball is NOT a good deal.

  16. Winkler needs to be playing. No more debacles like putting Stephenson and reed in the pen and not pitching them. We should be looking for a cf and a shortstop

  17. There’s only 3 things the Reds should be dealing for: #1 prospects, #2 prospects, & #3 more prospects. And to hades for those “ML ready” prospects. I want A-Ball prospects that don’t have to go on the 40 man this year.

    • All I want is clear all-star upside to whomever they get, whatever level/age (below age 24 preferably). I don’t care if AAA or low A ball, but don’t want the so-called high floor, low ceiling types, the career .240 hitters that have to platoon or SPs with poor fastballs, or poor control or only one pitch.

  18. Billy Hamilton is 27. Right now his speed is still a marketable commodity, but we can expect that to decline as he approaches 30. I think the (last?) best chance of getting a decent return for him is this year.

    • I think most Reds fans agree. Some love the defense to the point of keeping him at all costs, but I am ready to take a small step back on D to get a significant upgrade on offense.

      It would be nice to keep Hamilton if he were used as a 5th OF, late inning defense replacement and pinch runner, but starting 140+ games is putting a hurt on our run production.

  19. IF the Reds are shopping for a SS and CF, here’s a list of possibilities.
    SS:
    1 Brendan Rodgers (Rockies)
    2 Willy Adames (Rays)
    3 Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks)
    4 Jorge Polanco (Twins)
    5 Bo Bichette (Blue Jays)
    CF:
    1 Christian Yelich (Marlins)
    2 Alex Verdugo (Dodgers)
    3 Kevin Kiermaier (Rays)
    4 Ian Happ (Cubs)
    5 David Dahl (Rockies)

      • Agree. And pursuit of: Story, Galvis/Crawford, Profar, Ahmed, Marrero, as well as Inciarte, JBJ, Benintendi, Alford, Mazara should be considered.

  20. A note on the availability of the Marlins OFers. Ken Rosenthal is reporting, “Marlins pushing Ozuna, telling teams he will be easier to acquire (lower acquisition cost) than Yelich. Two years of control for Ozuna, five for Yelich.”

    Ozuna had 5.8 WAR last year with .312/.376/.548 and 37 HR, 127 RBI. He played some time at all 3 OF positions, while winning a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger. 27 Years Old.

    Yelich is a year younger with team option for 2022 (.282/.369/.439) and plays only CF. Owed $43 million through 2021.

    Either would be a really, really nice pickup.

    • Also being said that 6-8 teams are showing interest in Ozuna, including Cardinals, Giants, Nats and A’s.

    • Given that I’d almost wish for Ozuna over Yelich. But either would be an upgrade. I’d be okay if they sent both Hamilton and Duvall for one of them and some swap of prospects perhaps.

  21. Please… Just please trade for Ozuna or Yelich. Make it happen.

  22. Ozuna!!!! 2 years of control and then he gets Homer’s $. Ozuna, Votto, Suarez, Senzel, and Winker. That’s a scary offense! Prob go to St. Louis or the Nats though…lets be realistic

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