First we heard rumors of teams inquiring about Raisel Iglesias. Next, it’s Billy Hamilton’s name popping up in trade talks. Now today, we hear that the Reds are “open to offers” for left fielder Adam Duvall, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.

MLB Trade Rumors had some thoughts, as well:

Duvall, 29, would provide cheap power to a team in need of it – he’s not eligible for arbitration until next winter and is fresh off his second 30-home run season in a row (though he hit an underwhelming .249/.301/.480 in 2017).

I can’t imagine that the Reds will be able to expect a lot of value in return for Duvall, but he could certainly be a piece in a larger deal with a team who is interested in a cheap power bat.

The recently-wedded Duvall has been roughly a league average hitter (103 OPS+) over his first two seasons as a big league regular, but he has shown himself to be a 30-homer, 100 RBI guy and he bears the magical moniker “All-Star” (if any of that still means anything to big league teams these days; I’m not sure it does). But throw in the fact that he is a two-time Gold Glove finalist, and is fairly inexpensive — and under team control for four more years — and the full package looks a little better.

Once again, these hot stove pieces bring us to the one inescapable reality of Cincinnati’s situation this off-season: Dick Williams should be listening to offers on everyone, and everyone should be available in trade, for the right return. Except maybe Nick Senzel. Because I want to see him in a Reds uniform.

(Okay, I concede: I’d trade Senzel in exchange for Mike Trout.)

Also noted in that piece:

The shortstop-needy Padres will pursue the premier player available at the position, Zack Cozart, according to Cafardo. Cozart was one of the best players in the majors last season, pairing his usual excellent defense with uncharacteristically great offense (.297/.385/.548 with 24 homers in 507 PAs), but the longtime Red isn’t a free agent at a time when many teams are seeking a shortstop, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explained. That could negatively affect his market, then, though MLBTR still forecasts a respectable contract (three years, $42MM) for the 32-year-old.

I still think, if I were the Reds, I’d offer Cozart three years and $36 million. That’s almost assuredly insane (given his age and injury history) and driven largely by sentimentality, but since the Reds don’t really have an overwhelming option to replace Cozart at shortstop, it kinda makes sense to my warped mind.

What do you think?

46 Responses

  1. Kap

    Trade Duvall to the diamondbacks for marte

  2. Steve Mancuso

    It’s important to keep in mind the context of a few of these trades. The Reds have young replacements coming up in certain positions. That’s what makes the case for these trades. The Reds wouldn’t and shouldn’t be eager to trade Adam Duvall if it wasn’t for Jesse Winker. Same with Scooter Gennett and Dilson Herrera and more importantly Nick Senzel at 2B. Throw in the decent chance that Duvall and Gennett are at peak value and, well, it’s time to shop them aggressively.

    • Jack A. Willoughby

      Reds will not win their division w/o a corner outfielder that hits 30 HR, not if they call GABP home. So if you trade Duvall, it’s down to Schebler. Why? He plays great defense, makes ML minimum, & trading him will not produce either a top shelf cf, ss or sp prospect. When Jesse Winker demonstrates that he’s not a liability in the field or vs lefties, you’ll still get about the same trade value for Duvall as is available now.

      • Bill

        I will agree that he isn’t going to provide a starting SS or CF that everyone wants, but I don’t think a corner outfielder hitting 30 HR is a requirement to get to the playoffs. As you mentioned Schebler is still there to provide 30+ HR, you also have Gennett, Suarez, and Votto providing HRs if that is what you want. From what I have seen the only significant benefit of Duvall over Schebler is he is right handed in a lefty heavy lineup. If Duvall can be combined with someone else to provide a better SS or CF it would be worth looking into. The biggest problem I see with trading Duvall, Gennett, Stephenson, Hamilton, or others that get thrown around on this site is; the other teams should have the some concerns that the Reds have with these individuals. This greatly reduces the trade value unless a team is desperate for that particular skill set and has an extra CF or SS sitting around.

      • Scott Carter

        From what I’ve seen Winker has already proven both of those things and still is young enough to improve both. Plus he gets on base more than a than 1/3 of the time.

      • Jack A. Willoughby

        ML .120/.154/.354 vs lefties. We all hope this small sample size proves nothing about Winker, right?

      • Scott Carter

        But the question that I would have is how many of those AB’s were before he started getting regular playing time. I remember a lot of times seeing Winker coming up in a PH situation after sitting for two games or so and the opposing team bringing ing in a LOOGY to face him. As poorly as this team was managed, especially in regard to the young players, it is hard to make definitive statement on what a particular player can or cannot do.

      • Shawn

        Winker hits both lefties and righties

  3. james garrett

    The only problem I have with moving Duvall is that in my mind they then keep Billy and keeping him is a big time mistake.I can see this front office doing just that and not blinking regardless of who they get for Adam. We need to address CF and SS at some point and shouldn’t trading a 30 homer guy or any trade for that manner target one of those positions even if it is a prospect.

    • Michael E

      I agree. Hamilton is a very good (not great) defensive CF, but that bat, it needs removed from the lineup. Trade him NOW, while teams have CF needs, are interested and Hamilton isn’t hurt or hitting .200 in June.

      I’d rather they trade Hamilton, keep the other OFs and play a defensive downgrade with a much better bat in CF. Whatever Hamilton “saves” in runs allowed is given up by his awful bat and runs produced and likely a net negative, WAR or otherwise be darn.

      • jim t

        Billy is a great defensive CF. Have know idea who your watching. While his bat is very suspect he gives you around 70 SB’s a year. The problem with Billy is the reds insistence in batting him leadoff instead of the bottom of the order.

      • james garrett

        He is a great CF but he can’t hit or get on base regardless of where he is at in the lineup.Just can’t hide him and his 300 obp and lack of power and after 4 years of almost indentical stats there is no reason to expect him to get any better.He has to be traded as Michael E said and NOW.He will only get slower and continue to fight injuries because of his stature and the way he goes all out on the field.We will find out the Reds plan very quickly because they know that CF and SS are the positions they need to address.If they hand the jobs to Billy and Peraza then that tells it all in my mind what their plans are for this year.

      • jim t

        Not advocating for the reds to keep him. The comment I found odd was saying he wasn’t a great defensive CF’er. Reds need to see what they have in Perraza at SS and find a CF to replace Billy. They also need to play Winker everyday in LF.

      • Eric (@eric3287)

        Billy’s career high SB is 59 last year. He’s never even given the Reds 60, let along 70 stolen bases.

      • Michael E

        Billy has great range, yes, but a poor arm, so that keeps him from being GREAT CF in my mind. Very good, but not great.

    • Michael E

      That said, this IS the time to try to get a good return on career years for Gennett and Duvall. I like both, I do, but if you shop them aggressively, both should be in demand. Duvall for that SORELY needed RH power OF bat that MANY teams don’t have and Gennett for above average hitting at a position half the teams have crap.

      Both should bring a better return than Chad alluded to… lets not undervalue our players. Duvall is likely an equal version to Frazier (a tad better I’d say) while under years of control. He can play a little IF too. Duvall should bring back a very nice prospect or a swap for a good current MLB player at another position or pitcher.

      Gennett shouldn’t bring back quite as much, but we still should get no less than a prospect that slides into our top 8 or so.

  4. Darrin

    IMO, Duvall needs to DH, I feel that’s the only way he can play a full, productive season and maybe even add a few seasons to the end of his career. I also believe throwing 40ish million dollars at Cozart would be an enormous mistake, let somebody else risk it.

  5. Bill

    I personally would listen to offers on Duvall, Schebler, and Hamilton and if there was an offer that improved the team take it. If not use Hamilton as the fourth OF and late game replacement as a pinch runner and defender. If Schebler can’t handle it defensively or someone gets hurt Hamilton returns to starting CF.

    The infield is a more interesting when it comes to trades. You have Suarez and Votto locked in the corners, currently Perraza and Gennett in the middle. In the minors waiting is Senzel who can probably play 2B or 3B. The same for Blandino, but probably blocked by Senzel. Herrera who may need a prosthetic shoulder out of options at 2B. Gennett is a perfect sell high scenario, but comes with question marks. Perraza hasn’t shown he can hit, but is still young.

    With no idea on how the rotation is going to work out the Reds may be better off trading at the deadline than in the off season. Of course the drawback is like Cozart they get injured or don’t play well and are unable to be traded. Halfway through the season may give a better idea on if the Reds are one piece away for contending or destined to be in the cycle of trading for prospects every year. In a perfect world the pitching is healthy, Senzel is a star at 2B, Gennett is traded for prospects to keep the pipeline filled, and the Reds resign Cozart who repeats last years performance. Unfortunately the world is not perfect and keeping up with the Yankees and Dodgers resources is extremely difficult

  6. Eric

    I have said this on other sites. They need to package Duvall and prospects to Miami for Yelich. I would move Hamilton to Texas for Profar and a prospect if I could get the prospect. I would field offers on Gennett and trade him as soon as possible.

    • jim t

      If we could land Profar for Hamilton I would jump at he opportunity.

  7. Brian Davis

    Im not for trading any of the Reds productive players,simply for the fact that they will just be giving them away. Cueto,Chapman,Frazier and on and on,what did we get in return for those Reds fan favorites? Nothing for the problems with the rotation,nothing. What does this Reds fan want for Christmas? A NEW GM,ASAP,RIGHT NOW .

    • CI3J

      Do you want to talk about Alfredo Simon and Dan Strailey?

  8. jim t

    Being reported on WLW that the Giants have interest in Both Duvall and Hamilton.

    • scottya

      Sadly their system is not loaded with CF and SS prospects. They have ton’s of starting pitching that looks good. This may not be the best fit.

      • Michael E

        Meh, take what you can get. If they have a GOOD SP prospect (SP1/SP2 upside) you take him and run. We have lots of MI/CI prospects, so we can find a SS internally if necessary.

        I would love to get a good CF or SS prospect, but if Giants are willing to overpay via pitching, just as good. As we have seen, you can NEVER have too much good pitching. Having 7 or 8 good SP candidates when we contend means withstanding an injury or two and having a top 5 rotation (probably not till 2019, but its coming).

  9. Collin

    I definitely don’t want to resign cozart. I’d like to see senzel with the team to start the year and without SS open I don’t think here is a place for him immediately. I don’t understand trading Duvall. He’s our righty power hitter. I’d rather get rid of schebler somehow and replace with winkker

    • Shawn

      Duvall has broken down at the end of the season the past 2 years. Possibly due to high s diabetes, Schebler is the better hitter. ( I know he struggled while hurt last year ) and can cover CF. Why would you rather keep Duvall?

      • greenmtred

        They aren’t completely dissimilar, but Duvall is the better fielder with a better arm. Schebler can be put in CF, but has shown little evidence that he can actually cover it. The Reds will probably lose Cozart,and with him, superior SS defense. Sacking the outfield defense in addition would affect the emergence of the young pitchers, and pitching was the team’s Achilles heel in 2017. Somebody is probably going to answer that fielding isn’t important in today’s game, and I will proactively answer that each team still has to record 3 outs per inning, so it is evident that defense still matters, regardless of launch angles.

  10. cfd3000

    I’m not surprised that there is interest in Duvall. I just hope that Dick Williams is interested in packaging him to return a new and better CF or SS. Preferably the former, with a 2 year resigning of Cozart. Unfortunately he may demand a three year deal and that’s where it looks like a stretch, but there’s no one to step in at SS if Cozart is gone and they don’t trade for his replacement. Peraza is not the answer there, and I don’t want to see Suarez uprooted. In any case this is good news. DW should be in sell high mode on Duvall, Gennett, Hamilton, and even Iglesias and Peralta.

    • Michael E

      Trade Duvall and Hamilton together if necessary. Get back a very good CF or SS prospect and maybe a good SP prospect (or two). They’re both cheap so a team that is very OF poor (fielding and hitting) might bite to get cost-controlled players and willing to give up high end prospects that maybe are a year or more away.

  11. sultanofswaff

    The Reds need to fix CF, the Red Sox need a power bat and are making Jackie Bradley Jr. available. Duvall seems like a good fit, but Boston’s sights are probably set higher so we might need to chip in another player to make it work. If we’re matching up WAR, adding Hamilton gets you there. Better yet, you could hide Billy in a lineup in the American league, so the appeal should be greater. If the Reds need more for those two, I’d ask for a reliever.

  12. JREIS

    I think we should keep Duvall ,he is a crowd favorite….. the ladies by his merchandise and crowd the left field bleachers to watch him lol….
    plus we have some good young outfielders in our farm system to replace him in a couple of years with Siri, Trammel and Ervin..

  13. IndyRedMan

    I’ve been talking about Scooter to the Yankees for a while now and now they’ve deal Castro. Our pen needs help and they have a bunch of great arms? Duvall fits the Reds imo….hate to trade him? We have a lot of lefty sticks and he gives some balance vs lefties plus he’s a very good defender. In a perfect world…they could bat him 6th and limit him to 400-450 atbats and I think he’d be very good!

  14. doofus

    “Once again, these hot stove pieces bring us to the one inescapable reality of Cincinnati’s situation this off-season: Dick Williams should be listening to offers on everyone, and everyone should be available in trade, for the right return. Except maybe Nick Senzel. Because I want to see him in a Reds uniform.”

    Agree and would add that DW should be actively searching for SS and CF trades, not just waiting for others to come to him.

  15. doofus

    Why can’t the Red’s front office be aggressive about pursuing trades for players the club desperately needs?

    • Dirk Thomas

      We don’t know that they aren’t. The lack of action may indicate that the Reds and the team(s) they’re approaching have yet to agree on a deal.

  16. doofus

    Why does the front office ignore the fact that the clock on Joey Votto is running, that they need to add talent around him to at least sniff the playoffs?

    • JREIS

      I think they know we are a few years off from being competitive again. so they try to keep the players that they know are crowd favorites. that is why I Don’t believe they are going to trade SCooter, Duvall or Billy.
      fans like these players and come to the ball park to see them even when the reds are loosing.

  17. sultanofswaff

    Center Field:

    -The Cubs have a glut of outfielders and a barren farm system. I’d see if they’d be open to offers on CF Almora. That leaves the job to Ian Happ (lots of power, lots of strikeouts).

    -If the market collapses, a one year deal for Carlos Gomez would be an option.

    -Joc Pedersen is out of a job. His bat would play up and the lack of range would be better suited to GABP.

    -The Nationals have 2 CF, michael taylor and brian goodwin. Taylor is the starter, goodwin had an .800+ OPS in 250 AB……good BB/K ratio in the minors. Top prospect Victor Robles is on the way.

    The Reds could upgrade CF w/o gutting the ML roster or the farm. GET IT DONE!

    • greenmtred

      The lack of range would certainly show on balls in the gaps and on balls that drop in front of him because he has to play deep.

      • Michael E

        and it appears Pederson is going to be as bad a hitter as Hamilton, more power perhaps, but less speed/SBs.

  18. Shawn

    I’d offer Cozart 3 years 33 Million With a option for 4th year. Trade whatever it takes to get Yellich. Trade Hamilton, Duval and Iglesias for prospects. Then at all star break I would see what our pitching needs are and use prospects to make a run for the playoffs if we are in charge mtention

  19. Greg Hess

    Schebler is the one they need to be shopping!

  20. Dan Greene

    The Reds are still trying to generate a small payroll and don’t have any consideration for level of play placed on the field. Duvall is gold glove, power bat, that is fans friendly.
    Therefore – he must go according to Reds.