2017 Reds / Milton / Titanic Struggle Recap

Recap: Reds lose third straight. To the Mets. The hapless New York Metropolitans. Three games in a row.

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (61-82) 1 4 0
New York Mets (63-79) 6 9 0
W: Montero (5-9) L: Bailey (4-8)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score

Not-So-Random Thoughts
–The Reds have scored a grand total of four runs in these three games in New York, all losses. That’s nine straight losses at Citi Field. Ugh.

–Everyone on earth — with the obvious exception of Bryan Price — knew that it was a bad idea to send Homer Bailey back out to the mound for the seventh inning. The Reds were down 3-1, so they still had a fighter’s chance. Bailey was up to 96 pitches on the night, and had surrendered three hits and a walk in the previous two innings. He’d pitched a fine game –six innings, three runs — he’s continuing to improve in his comeback from injury, and Price was playing with fire by leaving him in the game.

Homer promptly hit the first batter of the seventh inning with a pitch. The Mets then sent Jacob deGrom, a pitcher, to the plate to pinch hit. Presumably, deGrom was up there to lay down a sac bunt, but he was unable to get that done — because Bailey walked the pinch-hitting pitcher.

Michael Lorenzen came in at that point and soon both of those runs scored (thanks partially to a double that would have been caught in the air by most center fielders, but Scott Schebler couldn’t pull in). It turned a good start for Homer into a sub-par one, and the game was out of reach.

–Some nights, it seems like this is a season that will never end. Whatever. It’s not like we’re going to turn this into a Mets-focused site or something silly like that. Let’s just hope for better things tomorrow (and in 2018).

Milton was unhappy with Cincinnati’s performance today.

52 thoughts on “Recap: Reds lose third straight. To the Mets. The hapless New York Metropolitans. Three games in a row.

    • Just imagine how different the game would have been 3-1 – they could have thought about bunting guys over had they got on. The issue with this series is offense in my opinion and when it is not going I agree the games frustrating to watch

    • The point was Homer shouldn’t have been out there in the 7th. That’s a bad decision by Price.
      It was also a bad decision by Price to sit Duvall vs. Montero instead of Harvey. A little research, a cursory look at stats, would have yielded better lineups. Finally, a bad decision to put Schebler in CF instead of Ervin, for obvious reasons.

  1. if Winker is back from the DL, I hope he’s in the lineup for the remaining three weeks of the season. The Reds need his on-base ability. I don’t think Shebler is the answer as a starting outfielder. His hitting is inconsistent and he swings at too many bad pitches plus his defense leaves a lot to be desired.

    • I posted this in the game thread last night:
      Schebler down to .235. He is Jay Bruce light. Less power, less arm…swings at bad pitches….but is OK when the Reds are up/down 5-0.
      I’d be OK moving him in a package for a pitcher…but his value is falling daily.

      A few innings later, he tried to throw a runner out at home after Scooter deflected a single through the infield. He had no chance getting the guy (who didn’t even have to slide), and it allowed Aoki go to 2nd. The very next play, he misplayed the ball in center (the ball was very high and landed 1 foot onto the warning track) into a double, and Aoki scored.
      To his credit, the next batter hit a sinking liner to left center, and he came in and made a nice diving catch, but got up and made a poor throw to 2nd trying to double-off Aoki.

      • When Schebler first came back from DL he seemed like he was back to early season form…but watching him the last few games, he’s missing balls low and away by a mile (on pitches he probably should not even be swinging at) and behind high hard ones. What’s up? Seems to have lost his ability to opposite field. Injured again? Hearing Winker’s and Ervin’s footsteps?

        • Schebler is a decent 4th outfielder for an average team. He is a starter on a bad team.

  2. No offense for 3 games.

    And WTF is Price doing leaving Bailey in the game after 96 pitches? No point in doing this at all.

    This is an example of Price being a bad manager, regardless of the talent on the team.

    • I agree. This is the second start in a row where Bailey went 6 solid innings and was sent out to start the 7th without recording an out and ended up having his inherited runners score. Price did that same thing to Stephenson as well after his most recent start. Start the inning clean with a reliever and let Bailey take the progress he’s made. He’s completed the 6th inning three games in a row. That is progress. With expanded bullpens there is no excuse to act like Dusty did leaving Arroyo in for 1 inning too long.

      • I didn’t see the game, but is it possible that Price is, at this point in the season, not playing for the win as much as he’s extending Bailey’s innings/pitch counts?

        • I guess I don’t see the point in extending pitch counts in individual games when you’re getting ready to have 5 months off. Bailey has pitched over a hundred pitches this year so it’s not like he hasn’t been stretched out to work a starters load. Come spring everyone will start off at the same place with pitch counts and build up strength through spring training.

          • Yeah. I understand that keeping Bailey in the game with so little season left won’t have an appreciable effect on his physical readiness. It might push his mind-set, though, if he’s feeling tentative, as he may well be. Sounds pretty new age, I realize.

  3. Chad, you made me dig out my copy of “The Book.”

    According to their game state chart…
    Trailing by 2
    Start of bottom of 7th inning
    Reds’ chance of winning the game……..

    23.4%

    At this point, isn’t the big picture goal to give Bailey the work to try and reasonably insure he is ready to go the entire 2018 season?

    19 more games and then, no more meaningful Reds baseball for 6 months.
    (That’s a long time to go without seeing Milton).

    I am keeping my sense of humor and will do my part to keep RLN from being anything like any Mets fan-related sites. Joyless is being kind in describing them, every single year.

    • One additional inning on September 9 is going to help him get ready for next season? That makes as much sense to me as taking him out in the 5th because you don’t want his arm to be fatigued in April.

      • He started the inning at 96 pitches (I believe).

        I think we all agree that Price/Jenkins or Bailey isn’t going to risk the guy’s arm in a meaningless September game. As long as he felt good, why not give him the work? He had registered a quality start to that point, anyway.

        Even if the Reds had overcome that 76.6% likelihood they were losing when Bailey started the 7th, is 71-91 that much better than 70-92?

        By that logic, how dare Price give Duvall a day off? Get him back out there for all 19 remaining games…get that 1st round pick, Ervin, back on the bench.

        (And, I am not a Price fan, by any means)

        • Plus, the TV broadcasters said he had already thrown 109 pitches in an outing earlier this season.

          It’s not like they were stretching him 20 pitches farther than he had gone in 2017.

          • It wasn’t the number of pitches, it was that Bailey was clearly fatigued. I don’t care if Bailey throws 130 pitches, as long as he’s still strong.

        • I agree with Sliotar here. I think over the last few weeks that Price has been pushing his starters into the 7th…demanding that they stretch out, and can go up to 110-120 pitches per start. Homer was only at 96 pitches.
          I have no problem, in a meaningless game, of experimenting with this.
          Stop acting like 90-100 pitches is some kind of thin ice area for a pitcher. Lets groom our pitchers to go 115-120.

          • I do think pitchers should be expected to regularly go 110-120 pitches per start. There doesn’t seem to be any evidence that suggests there’s a difference between 100-120 for pitchers fatigue. At the same time you have to recognize when a pitcher is running out of gas. I think that’s where Price is missing the mark lately as he’s sent Homer out twice in a row, and Stephenson his last start to begin the seventh when they appeared to be done for the evening.

          • Bailey didn’t seem fatigued after 6. No reason to remove him. When showing fatigue in the 7th (2 batters) he removed him. Can’t be any more clearer than that

      • If a pitcher cannot go more than 6 innings at 96 pitches , maybe he should be a reliever. Price does a lot of dumb & pointless things, this was not one of them

  4. I’ll continue saying it: I don’t care what his strengths are, bringing Price back is sending a clear message to this team. All anyone asks of the Reds is to show up on time, go through the motions, do whatever feels comfortable. have some fun, be nice, chat with friendly reporters from time to time, and show up again tomorrow.

    • Exactly! San Diego was down 6-0 tonite after 6 innings and beat a playoff bound in Arizona on the road. They have no established talent to speak of, and now they’re 4 games better then the Reds. We get down a few runs and quit. Thats on Price

      • This team has not quit. We just came off a 3 game sweep of the Brewers. Had we quit then. We have been out pitched and out hit in this series. Neither was from lack of effort.

    • Exactly. In other cities, the expectation is to win. Not in Cincinnati. Here, it’s just nice that we have a team.

        • I agree with Jim T. This team has not quit. They get beat (a lot) but quitting isn’t something that I see.

          • What does it look like when a baseball team has quit? They stop taking their ABs? Refuse to catch the ball when it’s hit to them? Pitchers throw underhand? I think it looks a lot like what we’ve been seeing the past few days. Go on the road to face a horrible team and somehow manage to look far worse than you did at home against a playoff contender. They were “up” for the Milwaukee series. That one mattered to them. This series on the road against a bad team — they don’t care. That’s what quitting looks like. It doesn’t mean the players NEVER care, it means they don’t ALWAYS care.

  5. All we have to know about the Reds keeping Price is, the price was right. Now who is behind the next door the Reds open?

  6. The Reds want to win…the owners, friont office, manager, coaches, players. The Reds problem is a lack of sufficient talent. Many on this site over rate Reds talent and under rate other teams. Batting Scooter cleanup shows how weak the talent is. Duval is inconsistent but he will finish with 100 RBI. He is not an All-Star but he is the best left fielder the Reds have had for many years. Schebler does not have the skills to be a regular center fielder. He is not quite as good as Bruce. Ervin is not the answer. Hamilton will be in CF until some definite improvement comes along. Winker looks OK but is his power and defense good enough to hold down a starting corner OF position on a competitive team? Catching is below average. My guess is Senzel will be at 3B and Suarez at SS year. The infield defense will not be as good. Votto has had a great career here but players do not win vs. age and a slow decline is inevitable. I am not sure Votto wants it but a trade to a playoff contender might help him and the Reds. Getting a chance to play in a bigger market and in meaningful games will enhance his Hall of Fame credentials. The Reds will be slightly better next season. The starting pitching will improve which should help them win 75 games or so. Next step 80 games in 2019.

  7. Probably doesn’t matter if Homer goes out for the 7th or not.Pros and cons both make sense but Homer has been hurt for two years and what is the worse thing that can happen for him.It would be bad if he got hurt which can happen if he is fatigued but if he was good to go back out then let him.If winning the game was important them a fresh arm would have been better.If winning is important then look no further then the offense over the last 14 games.We are 6-8 and in our losses we have scored 7 runs having faced the Bucs and Mets.Yes all teams go through this but our starting pitching has been pretty good not great.Its a team game and the pen is wore out and the line up is as well.Time to let the young guys play more and more and lets wrap this season up.Finally all the outfielders were moved last night so Duvall could get a night off.No need to do that just put Kivlehan in left and leave the others alone.Time to try Scott in center is at a smaller out field with Duvall in left and Winker in right,two guys in their normal positions,

  8. The Reds amazing starting OF

    1,646 PA with an OBP just over .300
    w RC+ 101 101 65
    BB% 7.8 5.5 6.8

    Reds won 68 games last year and might get to 70 this year

    Playing the same OF next year does not seem to be an optimal plan, yet, the Reds have done little this (rebuilding) season to develop their younger players

    • That outfield leads the MLB in assists, I think, and is generally very good defensively. The team as a whole is comfortably above the median in runs scored. The Reds have a poor record this year, yes, and it’s because of the pitching. And the pitching is showing signs of improvement.

      • Schebler is not an average defender. Not for lack of trying, he hustles, but he is not.
        The offense gets runs in batches often extending big leads or coming back when the deficits are too large to overcome. The result yields inflated offensive stats, especially by the home run/strike out batters. We need more Winker’s – high OBP hitters – and fewer Schebler’s/Duvall’s.

  9. Bailey had another encouraging outing. Suarez and his disciplined appraoch at the plate still screams for a move to the top of the lineup.

    We know Schebler struggles defensively and we know Hamilton struggles offensively, I don’t believe the Reds have a Dr. Frankenstein on the payroll to put Schemilton in CF. How much better would Schebler’s defense in CF be if he played there regularly? I don’t think anyone knows and no one seems inclined to find out. How much better would Hamilton’s offense be he he played regularly or even maximized his PA by leading off? Oh yeah…he does and he’s the same offensive player he’s always been at both the AAA and MLB levels. I liked Schebler playing CF yesterday with Ervin shifted to LF. I hope Duvall continues to sit for a few games, Schebler continues to play CF the rest of the 2017 season and Winker is healthy enough to start today in RF and starts in RF (and leads off) every game for the rest of the 2017 season.

    This team is going to miss Cozy next saeason…a lot.

    • I think the good Dr. F would be better off creating a Winker Hamilton hybrid….Whamilton?? Haminker???

    • You’re right in that I certainly wouldn’t be inclined to find out if Schebler’s defense would be any better in CF if he played there regularly. He’s adequate in RF and that doesn’t bode well for playing CF regularly.

  10. If you’re going to play Schebler in CF, then his offense needs to make up for his lack of range (think Choo). Don’t get me wrong. I don’t like Price, at all, many of my comments this year have been clear on that, but he experimented with the lineup tonight; put Scheb in center (something we’ve all clamored for) and in a very very small sample, didn’t quite work out. This offense has been good this year, one of the better. I think we all need to accept that what we wanted for 2017, is now hopefully what 2018 will be. The organization may make bad choices, but I don’t think there wholly stupid, they’ve made good personnel moves this year and there is hope in all of the pitching we have, and the people coming up. As long as the Vertigo issue gets resolved an offense featuring senzel, Suarez, Votto, Winker, and any of the others coming through is a solid offense. Don’t let the clouds in the sky block the rest of the blue sky and sun out there, my friends.

  11. With 19 games remaining (for the Reds), the race for the 2018 rule 4 draft:

    54-88 PHI (.381) —-
    56-88 SF (.389) +1.0 games
    55-86 CHW (.390) +1.5 games

    60-81 DET (.426) +6.5 games
    61-82 CIN (.427) +6.5 games
    62-80 OAK (.437) +8.0 games
    63-79 NYM (.444) +9.0 games
    63-78 ATL (.447) +9.5 games

    65-78 SD (.455) +10.5 games
    65-77 TOR (.458) +11.0 games
    67-76 PIT (.469) +12.5 games

  12. The more I hear other teams commenting on Hamilton’s disruptive force and elite defense, the more I think Hamilton may have more trade value than we have assumed if DW makes him available.

    With Hamilton entering his final two arbitraion seasons, Hamilton’s contract over those two seasons would offeset half of Cozart’s contract for those two seasons if the Reds signed Cozart to a three year contract.

    • I love Billy (batting way lower in the order) but I’m a believer in the “change of scenery” for him. There are some teams with huge ballparks that should be interested. I’m on the trade him bandwagon as well.

      CC: Dick Williams and Steve Mancuso

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