Big League Ready

The Sorting Is Nearly Complete

As I’ve sporadically written this column over the course of the season, various players have seen their stock rise and fall. I sat down to write this column and realized that, suddenly, the picture is a lot clearer. And that we need to add a few names to the list. So here we go, let’s look at the list.

Falling Stock

Cody Reed – Seems to be killing himself with what’s between his ears. He’s not going to be part of the picture unless he gets that lined out.

Amir Garrett – Same as Reed. His AAA numbers are awful. This is pretty shocking to me, frankly, but I suppose you never know.

Jose Peraza – He hasn’t been given up on, yet. But he has been benched. He needs to return to the plate approach he had in Louisville when the Reds first acquired him. Time isn’t running out for him, but it’s getting later all the time. He probably gets one more season to prove himself.

Dilson Herrera – Season ending shoulder injury. Ugh.

Robert Stephenson – His stock is perhaps not quite as low as the other pitchers – he’s finally gotten his walks down in AAA – but he’s going to need to show something at the big league level.

Rookie Davis – Injuries and uneven results in the minors

Holding Steady

Sal Romano – Due to injuries, Romano is the only player who hasn’t really seen his stock move. He’s getting his chance with the Reds right now and having mixed, though somewhat promising results.

Rising Stock

Luis Castillo – Looks like a real pitcher to me. We’ll see how he does for the rest of the year, but he’s probably getting a slot in next year’s rotation.

Tyler Mahle – Six starts in AAA, five quality starts. His numbers are holding steady and it looks like sometime next year, he’ll get a shot. Maybe even at the beginning of the year.

Nick Senzel – I wondered when he’d make it on the list and here he is. He’s hitting .314/.375/.480 at AA. The jump from A+ to AA is supposedly the biggest until the big leagues, and he didn’t miss a beat. He’ll be knocking on the door soon, though he’ll reportedly finish the year in AA.

Jesse Winker – There’s not much power, but for the second year in a row, he’s getting on base like crazy. He’s finally gotten some cups of coffee and one assumes that his time is finally coming.

Adam Duvall/Scott Schebler – They’ve both proven they can hit. Slumps happen, of course, but the Reds now have a crowded outfield.

Conclusion

Baseball is a strange game. But seems as though all the prospects might end up yielding a couple of big league starting pitchers and half a lineup’s worth of hitters next year. Who knows where, exactly, they’ll play, but one assumes the Reds plan to figure that out.

81 thoughts on “The Sorting Is Nearly Complete

  1. There’s still a lot of question marks regarding Red’s starting pitching. Will Bailey, DeSclafani and Finnegan return to full strength? Will a young core of Castillo, Mahle and Romano get it done? I have my doubts. Instead of pouring money into prospects and they are only prospects, why not spend some money on an established pitcher, and not a has-been, to anchor the rotation? I see that as the only way to get the Reds to the next level.

    • Don’t worry…..you’ll get an “established” starter next year alright! Like Arroyo, Simon, Marquis-type established. Whatever they can get for the spare change between the sofa cushions. They have to save up for another .210 hitting Cuban shortstop!

      • Whoa, I know it’s fun to bash the front office, and I realize it’s easy to ignore good moves, while touting the bad. It’s hard to suggest that Feldman was not a clear cut middle of the rotation starter. Arroyo never would have gotten a chance, without all the injuries.

    • I agree they need to bring in at least 1 solid middle of the rotation type to provide stability while the younger internal rotation guys continue to develop and sort out. Steve Mancuso wrote here last week about the importance of incremental improvement. This is one move they could make which should provide such improvement.

      Some folks will counter that next season is the year the injury bug will go away and several of the internal guys will surely find themselves at the MLB level. It would be great if that happened; but, they need to base next season on more than just hope that it does. If they truly do end up with “too much” starting pitching, they can always flip the guy they brought in since he will be more than the band aid type guys they’ve signed in the last several years.

  2. With Herrera’s injury situation, 2B gets even more interesting. The next two years can be Gennett if they so choose but who else figures in? Shed Long appears to have hit some of that A+/AA wall Jason referred to in regard to Senzel. On the other side of the coin Alex Blandino (Reds 2014 1st Rd pick #29 overall) is making a run at AAA to get back onto the ledger after being all but written off as a bust after consecutive poor years a AA.

    • Blandino is interesting. He’s been doing well in Louisville and his defense is good. He could be an option. Short is the real conundrum. I don’t know that the Reds have anyone besides Peraza who could play there and has even a hope of hitting major league pitching. They have options at second. Blandino. One assumes Suarez or Senzel will have to move to a new position. Herrera might contribute.

      • Why not platoon Blandino w/Scooter and let Peraza play everyday at AAA? Why not cover their bases and give Suarez some time at shortstop? It is highly likely that Peraza will never hit so they need to be proactive for a change!

      • And it is not like Long has completely flamed out at AA since he moved up with Senzel about a month ago. His BA/OBP has been terrible to date; but he is OPSing in the .630-.640 range based on slugging in a league which Doug (Gray) is always pointing out is tough on slugging versus an OPS of .922 at A+. At AA his K rate is down 2.5% and BB rate is up 2.5%; so, he’s putting the ball in play a lot but making outs. He could still come around.

        • Correct, Long hasn’t struggled as much as bad as it looks. It’s mainly been BABIP where he is hitting .200. Both 12% BB rate and 20% K rate are good rates and improvements from A+. An ISO of 170 is also nice from a 2B. I think it’s a matter of time before those numbers adjust. He’s certainly someone I’m watching for that 2B job by 2019.

  3. Too bad about Garrett. He’s still considered by many journalists as one of the most athletic guys in the pitching flow. Would BobSteve need more starts before his stock is conclusive? I’m not a Reds writer, so my window is relatively small. It also seems that the team could use Winker’s offerings over those of Schebler.

  4. Hold on Jason. A bold statement that is off base. That Stock Down column needs some more names in it. Eugenio Suarez’s stock, BA and OBP have nearly fallen off of a cliff since June started. Duvall is starting to wear down for a second consecutive second half. Schebler is doing his best Jay Bruce imitation and has nearly disappeared from the lineup. Schebler isn’t even hitting his dog’s weight since the all-star break, .065.
    The SS position is up n the air.
    The 2B position may or may not be settled.
    The C position in limbo.
    The starting rotation is still a disaster.
    The sorting out is almost over is just preposterous.
    Jeepers Creepers, man, the front office hasn’t even figured out a way to sort out the sorting out. The sorting out needs sorting out.
    Again this trade deadline, the front office will display themselves as chimps trying to mate with footballs.
    As long as Walt Jocketty has influence in the Reds front office, this Rebuild is lost. The Rebuild is getting away from GM Dick Williams.

      • Apparently only the Reds have players who produce in a non linear manner. I thought it was normal for players to have slumps and hot streaks…..but apparently it’s not.

        If I looked, I guess I would see that Kris Bryant gets on base 4 times for EVERY 10 at bats…..it’s never 1 for 10 or 8 for 10.

    • Suarez had one bad month (June) and is hitting .265/.359/.485 with a 119 wRC+ in July. That perception that he’s fallen off a cliff is incorrect. And his OBP in his bad month was .343, though his power wasn’t there.

      Now, if the they are done sorting the pitching, they are in big trouble. They are still giving starts to Adelman who has been really poor and has no future in the rotation.

      • His July pre-ASB was horrendous too. He has played a little better post-ASB. In the long run he might be playing himself into a platoon situation. If Senzel takes 3B over, a platoon of Suarez vs. LHP and Gennett vs. RHP at 2B .
        If I’m Dick Williams, I am on the phone to Boston trying to trade Suarez to the RedSox for their 3B weakness. I’m shopping the heck out of Suarez to Boston and selling high, if it could lead to getting Devers. Not Cozart to Boston, though that could be a plan-B.
        Then I’m calling Tampa Bay, LA Dodgers, and possibly Houston and Washington on a Cozart and Cingrani package.
        However, shopping Suarez and also Schebler would be high on my winter list of to-do things if they don’t happen at the deadline.
        The Reds have to go get a quality starting pitcher this winter. One of these two should help in that endeavor. Both have behind them a highly regarded ML ready or almost ML ready prospect ready to go in 2018.

        • It would be strange to see the Reds ship away a 26-year-old who is already an above-average player. Suarez has accumulated 2.0 WAR already this season, and his walk rate has jumped up substantially. Looks like he is improving as a player. Can’t imagine someone as good as Suarez being a platoon guy.

          Yes, the one poor month was frustrating, but everyone struggles from time to time.

        • So you think Suarez is bad….but you also think a trade headlined by him would produce one of the top prospects in baseball. I’m a bit confused

          • No, I did not say he was bad. I said sell high if he can help the Reds net Devers. I am sure the Reds could put together a very attractive package centering on Suarez that could get Devers.
            A Suarez trade would have a pretty profound domino effect on the Reds organization if they got Devers.
            I’ve given up trying to be open minded about trading Duvall.
            On the Reds, one of Suarez, Duvall, and Schebler is not going to make it through the winter and won’t be here for Opening Day 2018. Which one will that be? Late April 2018 brings the arrival of Senzel. Senzel at 3B and Devers at 2B or the other way around for the next 6+ years. That would be nice to build around.
            Suarez could be moved to the OF, but that would require learning another position again for him. Duvall, Schebler and Winker seem to be in line first for that though.
            In a few short months, late April 2018, things could turn out where Suarez might not have a position to play in Cincinnati. Wait then and trade, when most teams aren’t trading until July.
            Nobody has a crystal ball though. It kind of reminds me of that scene in that Mark Wahlberg movie, “Shooter”, when the old man tells Wahlberg, “Just when you think you’ve got it figured, you’re wrong!”. And then points to his noggin.
            Think you have it figured on Suarez. And wrong.
            Think you have it figured on Duvall. And wrong.
            Think you have it figured on Schebler. Wrong.
            Peraza. Wrong.
            Who knows.

          • I concur with you WVRedlegs. Not sure the Reds have figured anything out with Duvall and Schebler. Suarez seems to be improving.

            Schebler has a falling wRC+ of 103 now, quickly going below 100.

            The Reds two best hitters are not young. Not sure exactly what the Reds have figured out this year. Winker is a top prospect and does not play.

          • As always, I genuinely respect and appreciate your knowledge and passion….but I think the chances of the Reds acquiring Devers are 0. Why would the Red Sox trade a guy projected to be better than Suarez, for Suarez when they’re not concerned that their window is closing?

          • You got it chuck. Another Reds fan who says Suarez might be a platoon player but the Front office could get Devers for him. Dilussional .

    • Suarez has been solid in July especially post all star break. Only June was truly bad as a whole.

    • Again this trade deadline, the front office will display themselves as chimps trying to mate with footballs.

      …………….What?

      • Jocketty, any year, at the deadline. Last year’s deadline. Not talking about winter off-season trades.
        Last year’s Jay Bruce trade.
        Last year’s non trade of Cozart.
        Trade deadline of 2015 holding onto Chapman and Frazier when the whole baseball world knew better.
        Trade deadline of 2015, Waiting too long and holding onto Cueto and Leake and dealt from a much lower leverage position.
        The 2013 deadline. Crickets. Deafening crickets.
        Trade deadline of 2012, after Votto hurts his knee and has surgery, Jocketty fortifies the lineup by getting relief pitcher Jonathan Broxton. Broxton dumped 2 years later in August 2014 trade.
        Jocketty dumps his major 2015 acquisition, Marlon Byrd, in August 2015 after spending a good pitching prospect to get him. No flip value at all.

  5. Next years lineup needs have Gennett at 2B, period. If Peraza plays, then he needs to be a SS. Herrera is a crap shoot but he is not starting next year at this point. Heck, you might see an IF of Senzel at 3B, Suarez at SS, Gennett at 2B long term.

  6. Why has Jesse Winker not been playing for the reds this year. What are they waiting for? Get him up here and platoon him. Same with Ervin.

    Schebler should be a decent 4th outfielder with some pop on the bench. He can play all 3 spots.

    Trade Cozart even if you get nothing back, need to open reps for Peraza and Suarez. Start playing Suarez at SS because Nick Senzel is a 3rd baseman. Let Blandino play some there in meantime.

    Scooter is the 2b for next season. If he continues to hit, hes the bridge to shed long.

    The pitching sorting is complete, sort of. The positional sorting is nowhere close.

    • Well,
      Adam and Schleber (sp) have hitting the cover off the ball 1st half of the season.
      Jessie has no power, and cannot play center field.

      That being said, he is marginal.

  7. The starting pitching sort is the most critical because we have done nothing and it takes the longest to figure out to begin with.Only way to figure out who can and who can’t is to give young guys a chance to fail and to do that the team most be willing to lose a bunch of games.We will lose a bunch of games and come away with at best a couple of guys getting 12-15 starts.The first half killed the rebuild process in regards to pitching but we weren’t willing to get beat up yet we got beat up anyway.We chose to lose with vets and warm bodies rather then young guys. Its easier to just plug in a position guy and let him play thus he gets a legitimate shot such as Peraza with his 400 at bats.You have to be really committed to do that with two or three young pitchers because when they fail it has a big impact on every game they fail in and generally works the pen to death and losses mount up quickly.Of course that happened anyway and we even carried an extra pitcher just to prove we knew it was going to happen.What have we found out?Nothing at all?

  8. I had given up on the Reds’ ability to move Cozart, but I heard J.P Morosi say the Red Sox are considering getting him to play third base. I still doubt we would get much in return for the rental, but I don’t see how he fits with the Reds unless he signs a one-year contract, which seems unlikely.

    • At this point my best guess is they will not trade him and offer the QO and Cozart will probably turn it down and sign a 3-year deal somewhere as long as he gets through the year healthy

        • I think you’re right. Considering his injury history (even before aggravating the quad yesterday), I’d be stunned if Cozart didn’t take a QO if offered. Even if he didn’t have the quad issues, I was thinking he’s probably a 3yr/$30-million guy or so. Now, I’m not sure a team would sign him to a 3yr term.

    • Interesting decisions for front office to make … presuming there is no overwhelming trade offer for Cozart, the injury setback for Herrera and Peraza’s disappointing performance make the middle infield more unsettled that previously imagined. It would be a very bad move to grab someone from the minors who is not ready and plug him in every day at either second or short. I’m sure Dick Williams is weighing all options with Cozart.

    • I wish the Reds had played Zack at 3B a little bit last year, just so he could show that he could do it. I think he probably can, but marketing him as a 3B, SS and utility infielder is much broader than just SS.

  9. Schebler is starting to resemble a poor man’s Jay Bruce…without the GG caliber defense Bruce had for years. His BA and OBP are dropping and on a team with a lack of RH bats….and plenty of power…..perhaps Winker complements this team better than does schebler. Plate disciple and elite defense and speed don’t slump.

    Votto.Suarez and Senzel are sorted. Write it down. They are 3 locks in the infield from mid summer 2018 onward. The question is shortstop.

    • Senzel is NOT sorted until he demonstrates he can hit and play defense at the major league level. As we have learned with many pitchers, just because someone has the “prospect” label does not make success automatic.

      • I hear you…more reflecting optimism.
        But…Senzel is the overall #2 pick….the best amateur hitter in the last 2 drafts and no ordinary “prospect”. He’s steamrolling through the minors and dominating at AA.

      • Agree… And by most accounts, he isn’t a particularly good 3B defensively. He has a nice first step and range but still makes a lot of mistakes. I think he’ll improve defensively but seems a lot of fans are anointing him a solid MLB player early next year and I just don’t see that happening. He’s still got stuff to work on.

  10. I have been wondering if the Reds aren’t considering a bigger move than just trading Cozart at the deadline ? I wonder if Duvall might be part of a deal to bring a more polished and controllable starter to stabilize the rotation . It would certainly open up a spot for Winker to see what he can do the rest of the season . I know that any deal for Duvall would rightfully command a huge package both based on his performance on offense and defense and the amount of control he has left . A team in the pennant race looking for a controllable outfield bat , would probably be willing to part with a top hitting prospect and a top pitching prospect about to break the big league roster as well as a couple midrange pieces . It would be a tough decision , but if a team offered a big package , Dick Williams would be crazy not to listen . This team isn’t going anywhere this year, so now would be the time to see if Winker can cut it in the big leagues as a starter.

    • In theory I agree. I do have an issue in leading with Duvall though. The issue is that trading Duvall really puts a dent into their RH hitting power; and, they already are struggling vs LH pitching.

      Maybe a team could be convinced to take Schebler or Winker instead along with somebody in the coming wave from the minors NOT named Senzel or Greene?

    • Duvall has performed well and the number of controllable years he has left are certainly a plus. He’s also diabetic with a low walk rate. No one is going to offer a monster package….despite his production…. for a guy with sustainability red flags.

      If you were the GM of team X, would you offer a lot for a guy with analytical red flags and diabetes?

  11. Garrett has pitched 58.1 innings; Castillo has 35; BobSteve 30; Rookie 19; Romano 18; Reed 14; Finnegan 13. The Reds have 63 more games left. Assuming BobSteve/Romano/Castillo stay in the rotation, that’s about 12 more starts, maybe 60-84 more innings, meaning after this year Castillo may be the only one with 100+ip in a big league season. That’s hardly enough to be considered sorting of any kind.

    And, based on what the Reds have shown up until now, when Feldman comes back he’s taking a spot from one of the young guys; if Disco comes back he’s taking a spot from one of the young guys too. So what, exactly, have the Reds accomplished with this “sorting”? About 30% of the total innings this year (274.3/881.2) have been pitched by Feldman/Adelman/Arroyo, none of who factor positively into any Reds future. An additional 87.2 innings have been pitched by guys like Asher, Bonilla, Jake Buchanan types, so now we are up to 41% of the total innings available up to this point that have been completed wasted; they have “sorted” absolutely nothing.

    Without even looking at the record, the year to this point has been a failure.

    • I try to look at it from the Reds prospective and most of those guys can’t get AAA hitters out consistently so they’re not ready. At the same time…Castillo is 24, so no point in burying him in AA half the year? They need to find out about Winker…FAIL. They will need to platoon Scooter and Peraza doesn’t hit lefties either? Will they call up Blandino? I doubt it…maybe September. Why is Wood still around at 32 yrs old? Its not all on Price, but he absorbed every one of Dusty’s stupid patterns with the bunting, playing veterans, etc. A mannequin with a baseball jersey on would’ve won a WS by now with all the HOF talent Dusty’s had!

      Look at last night….how many games have we been within 1 run in the 7th inning lately? Answer….not many! He pushes Adleman into the 7th and then follows up with Wood? Peralta was good to go! Storen was good to go! Wood? Cmon???

      Firing Price is the first step of the “rebuild”! Until that happens then nothing is being really being rebuilt! Price loses continuously and not only that….he’s a former pitching coach and its primarily because of pitching! Would you put your kid on a school bus where the driver has had 4 prior accidents?

    • The first group below is the 3 sure fire starters entering the season. They are in the rotation if healthy. They’ve provided 10 GS (0.5 rotations spots for this season) due to injury and this should have been seen as a big opportunity for a rebuilding/sorting club to see what their top arms have.

      The second group is the near ready top prospects, two of which for sure should have opened the season in the rotation. This should have also been the group to have filled in all the starts missed by the first group for a rebuilding/sorting club. This group currently has 30 GS which translates into 1.5 rotation spots for this season.

      The third group is the spot starter/long reliever/AAA rotation depth group. These are the non-prospect guys or depth guys who have no future with a rebuilding clubs future rotation. They should start only when absolutely necessary for a rebuilding/sorting club. They’ve somehow amassed 59 GS this season (3 rotation spots for this season) which is twice as many as group two, where most all of these starts should have gone.

      This is why we have next to nothing done as far as sorting out our starting rotation. The second group of pitchers have 57 GS at AAA. If you give them a bye on Feldman, that they should have went with him for one veteran in the rotation due to injuries, that’s still 40 GS (read 2 rotation spots this season) wasted on arms with no chance of helping this team with the future. Give those 2 rotation spots to group two along with the 1.5 they actually got, and we could have had 3.5 rotation spots, 70 GS, from that group for sorting purposes in an already lost season. This huge mistake has certainly set the rebuild back a year.

      GS IP
       Bailey, H 6 27.3
       Finnegan, B 4 13.0
      DeSclafani, A 0 0.0
      Total 10 40.33

      Player GS IP
       Garrett, A 12 58.3
       Castillo, L 6 35.0
       Davis, R 5 19.0
       Romano, S 4 18.0
       Reed, C 1 2.0
       Stephens, J 1 5.0
       Stephenson, R 1 5.3
      Total 30 142.66

      Player GS IP
       Feldman, S 19 103.7
       Adleman, T 18 96.3
       Arroyo, B 14 71.0
       Bonilla, L 4 20.7
       Wojciechowski, A 4 17.3
      Total 59 308.98

      • It makes the decision to start Reed and Stephenson in the bullpen even more curious. No idea why it wasn’t Finnegan, Feldman, Stephenson, Reed, and Garrett to start the year with Romano waiting to be the next guy up. Instead they allowed sentimentality to get the best of them in rooting for an Arroyo comeback and decided Davis would be a better rotation option even though he lacks the stuff or AAA track record of Stephenson or Reed.

        • Solid analysis Tom. I wonder if a similar chart exists in the GM’s office. Planning this out is not rocket science. Executing it with injuries gets more curious – for sure.

          I do question the Rookie Davis start. Not sure I saw ML stuff there, but I guess he was impressive enough in ST to earn a shot. No doubt, he was not ML ready when compared to the stuff of Castillo or Stephenson.

  12. It seems like all of your “Rising Stock” players are guys who haven’t had any significant playing time in the majors (outfielders aside) and guys who have played in the majors all saw their stock drop. To me, this is an alarming list. “The year for sorting” only showed that everyone who we thought was ready is probably not as good of a prospect as we believed. We are in the same position now as we were before this season- hoping our next batch of prospects pan out. I think players like Senzel and Romano will, but I’ve been wrong before (I still believe in Cody Reed). Pinning our hopes on unproven minor leaguers (Senzel, Mahle, Castillo) is definitely not the position we hoped or expected to be in at this point in the 2017 season.

    • I share this thought and recall that many of the pitchers that were supposedly ready until they saw MLB weren’t.

      But they’ve got a reasonably good offensive team that Senzel appears on line to make better as soon as mid 2018. That’s why I say jump start by acquiring a solid early to mid career middle of the rotation starting pitcher.

    • In general, you’re correct. Though Castillo is approaching “significant time.” Mahle, I’ll note, has had the best numbers of any of the prospects in the minors and it isn’t particularly close.

      • I agree, and I have high expectations for all the “Rising Stock” players you mentioned. I just think this season was a bit of a setback for many of our “ready now” players and our outlook is riskier because we are counting on unproven talent.

  13. Sorting for the outfield and infield is almost done. Winker needs to get at bats and 2B is a big question mark. I still don’t understand why we wasted the first half of sorting on Arroyo, Bonilla, and Adleman. I don’t understand why Adleman is still starting. What does he have to prove? He doesn’t figure into this club’s future so why is he still pitching every fifth day? Enough is enough

    • Adleman is currently one of the best five starting options they have in the organization. That will change when Feldman and-or DeSclafani return, and that’s when you can expect Adleman to be moved to the bullpen, because clearly he is not on the long-term plan.

      Who would you bring up from Class AAA now to replace Adleman? Reed, who is still walking everybody in sight and is obviously not ready yet? Jackson Stephens, who has a 4.82 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP? That’s not the kind of Class AAA performance that makes me think he’s a major league starter, at least at this point in his career. There are numerous examples of harm done to minor leaguers who were “rushed” to the big leagues. There should be more qualifications to being brought to the major leagues than a merely having a pulse.

      Mahle would be a good choice, but he’s not on the 40-man roster. Putting him there now would reduce the number of option years they have on him going forward, which there is no reason to do at this point in 2017.

      • Agree if Disco and Feldman return and neither Stephenson nor Romano nor Castillo has flat out crashed and burned (think Reed in 2016), Adleman has to be the odd man out of the rotation unless someone else has been injured. Otherwise if Adleman stays in the rotation, it is beyond explanation.

      • If this is indeed the season for sorting, I’d say it’s time to make a spot on the 40 man for Mahle. There are several guys taking up valuable spots who don’t figure into the club’s future even for next season (Wood, Bonilla…). Move Adleman to the BP as a long reliever. He’s earned that much but he’s certainly not a valid option for the rotation.

    • The old guys got starts because Bailey, DeSclafani and, early on, Finnegan were injured and the young guys were brutally ineffective.

  14. Reed is working on new mechanics so as to not tip his pitches, hence the sudden increase in walks. Stephenson has had one start where the manager left him in one inning too long. I would put these two in a separate “need more data” category. I agree that Castillo and Romano look like keepers.

    • I saw Tyler Mahle’s last start and he looked pretty good! I didn’t see radar readings but he was throwing pretty hard….someone said 96 and that was in the 5th inning. They say that locating the fb is his main attribute but he got atleast 3 guys fishing on wipeout sliders. Plus he’s only 22! I would rate him slightly higher then Romano. I also was intrigued w/Jackson Stephens when he pitched vs the Cubs. I didn’t expect him to throw 95-96 and he has a big curve. He’s only 23 as well. Lastly….call me crazy but Bonilla has good stuff! A fb w/movement up to 94-95 and a good changeup and decent curve. He’s only 1 run in his last 20 ip at Lville. Its just been walks/homers with him? Chris Welsh remarked about him also….how his pitches are pretty decent by themselves but just putting it together.

      • I’m disenchanted with radar guns, Indy. Everybody throws 95+,and they’re all getting whacked around unless they have other pitches, good control and an idea of how to pitch.

        • Yes! Stephens hasn’t been particularly good at AAA and in my opinion, he projects as a RP in MLB. Mahle has been very good but why rush him? Bonilla has had issues with command and reminds me an awful lot of a guy I thought may break through in Kevius Sampson. Velocity is nice but command is even more important. Give me a guy like Hendricks (Cubs), or Greinke (D-Backs), or Leake (Cards). A guy that commands his pitches. If he has plus velocity to go with that command then he becomes a star hurler. Without command though, the velocity by itself just doesn’t play in MLB. These guys can all hit fastballs in the heart of the zone.

  15. Louisville is playing this afternoon. I just checked in on Gameday to see what was going on and happened to noticed that Jesse Winker’s OPS is down to .782 despite an OBP of .389.

    This is worrisome to me for a corner outfielder because essentially it means that with him in an MLB lineup, whenever or wherever that might be, a team is going to have to make up for a lot of lost power compared to what they normally would expect from a corner guy, especially a guy who is very average at baserunning and defense. Not saying Winker won’t have a good or even outstanding MLB career; but, it sure would be nice if at least some of his “lost” power would reappear.

    • Wouldn’t this be the right team for that though? They have plenty of power…too many low obp guys and hence solo homers in a band box.

      I also want to see Winker in GABP…I think his slugging goes up.

    • And he is 2-3 with 2 runs in the leadoff hole…Ervin homered in the 2 hole. DW sending memos on line up construction ???

    • It would make it a whole lot easier for the Reds to bring him up if he had another plus skill to go along with his OBP. I love the OBP but with an ISO under .100, so-so defense at a corner OF spot, and adequate speed? That’s why I’m not too excited. Potential to be a nice player but he’s not pounding down the door, especially when Schebler and Duvall were hitting the cover off the ball and playing above average defense.

  16. Thanks Eric 3287 for providing the data to support my rant on having sorted out nothing regarding our young pitchers.If we continue with the same process we will be talking about it again next year.I just struggle with it all and the way we determine who gets a shot at pitching.Aldeman is a 5 inning guy who will give up 4 or 5 runs so what if we bring up a guy who is a 3 inning guy that gives up 4 or 5 runs.Who cares?We have carried and extra guy all year long in the pen and let Wood and Cingrani take over if we get down by a bunch early.Not like that hasn’t happened before right.In a season where our starters have set records in futility we want to make others earn the right to start.Name one guy who has earned it or proven he could get it done.Line em up and let him pitch and keep the bus running.

  17. Indy I love the Dusty and mannequin comparison.You are too much but I agree with the comment.He will mess this year up as well even if Kershaw never throws another pitch.

    • I don’t know? Washington might be too good to screw it up? Rendon looks like Manny Ramirez all of a sudden. Is Turner supposed to come back at all? They better pick up a reliever or 2 before the deadline though? I’ll take them over the Cubs all day!

    • I picked Dusty’s Nats to win it all this year. Dodgers may end up the better team but the Nats are really good. Postseason is a bit of a crap shoot and it’s not 100% on Dusty that he doesn’t have a WS title yet.

  18. Yeah they are better then the Cubs but the Dodgers are special even without Gonzalez.Not sure if or when Turner comes back but their issue as you said will be in the pen and more specifically who gets those last 3 outs.Doolittle and Madson have closed in the past but I don’t think either is the answer come play off time on the road in a one run game.They will exercise extreme caution with Kershaw since they are so far ahead in their division.

  19. Thanks Tom for the data on our starters.Sure tells it all doesn’t it and not because I have harped on it all year.How could or why would they allow this to happen.It was gift wrapped and put under the tree even before they left camp to use this year to find out about these young guys.Even carried an extra pitcher.Gee how nutty.

  20. Nats lineup is impressive and they got some good starters, but two of them are going to take 3 innings in a playoff game to get the job done. Even with the guys they added, that bullpen is setup to get exposed in a short series – they won’t be able to play match up much at all. They also have Dusty, nice guy but he has pretty much left huge playoff disappointment after winning a ton of games in the regular season everywhere he has managed. I’ll believe it when I see it when a Baker led team wins it all.

  21. Haven’t Posted in a while but just wanted to say I feel like this season has not answered many questions so far.

    Catching – Might be fixed for now assuming Mesoroco stays healthy.
    Starting Pitchers – What a mess. Bailey has not produced since coming off the DL
    Disco might get to finally start again in late Aug.
    Finnigan, Who knows what is going on with him.
    Of all the rookies who have started this season or last season for us
    none of them really have shown me any consistency. A few bright
    spots here and there but that’s it. This is an area that we might end
    up signing some good free agents for. That costs a lot of money to
    do that.
    Relief Pitching – Honestly this is an area I am happy with right now. Don’t mess it up.
    1st base – This is automatic Votto is still a great player
    2nd base – Give it to Gennet. He has done a nice job and I have no clue why the
    Brewers let him go. He was a decent player for them too. His season this
    year so far has been great. He is under 30 still too. If we could get Peraza
    to backup SS and 2b and have some productivity I think we are ok here.
    Shortstop – I honestly hope we hang onto Cozart for like 2 years with a team option for
    a 3rd year. I know we just got some nice SS prospects in the low minors.
    If Peraza starts hitting move him to SS if we get rid of Cozart and
    hopefully Herrara next season can start getting some more MLB time in
    behind Gennet.
    3rd base – This is interesting to me cause Suarez is doing a nice job there this year
    minus his bad June. If Senzel comes roaring in and just locks up 3rd I
    would like to see Suarez be given a shot at Shortstop. He has played
    some there in the past assuming Cozart would be gone. Maybe he
    becomes a super utility player playing everywhere but Catcher and Center
    field.
    Outfield – I like Duvall overall in Left. Hamilton is amazing defense and seems to be
    warming up lately hitting wise. I am not sold on RF though. Schebler had
    a very nice start but has been terrible of late. I know Bruce did the same
    thing in the past. I mean I am ok with him but just seems like this could be
    a place we could upgrade. I hope Winkler gets a real chance to play OF
    in 2018 cause the guy has great on base skills. This lineup needs that.
    We have to many low on base guys that having batting averages between
    .240 to .270. We need on base skills and someone who can hit .280 or
    higher consistently.
    Bench – This is an area that has done fairly well this year overall. I would not
    much here.

    Conclusion – Overall we have a pretty decent team on the hitting side of things. The
    problem is our starting rotation. I really feel like it will be 2019 or 2020
    before we are legitimate contenders again. I Bailey’s contract has been a
    bust I like Disco and hope he can return to good form again. Finnigan has
    upside again hopefully if he can get healthy. The rookies if someone is
    going to start standing out I hope they can soon. I know that is tough in the
    bigs, Even Maddox, Glavine and Smoltz had poor rookie and 2nd year
    seasons. It was year 3 they seemed to put it together. Here is hoping for
    the best but we all must remember to be patient with starting pitching not to
    jump down them and say oh you had a rough half season or even a full
    season.

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