Titanic Struggle Recap

Reds turn first trip play in 21 years, but fall to the Yankees

The Reds turned their first triple play in over 21 years, but the Reds fell 4-2 in Yankee Stadium. The Reds offense was dominated by Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery, and didn’t get a hit until the 6th inning.

The Reds made a run late. Billy Hamilton hit an RBI-double in the top of the 8th to cut the lead to 3-2. Zack Cozart was at first base at the time, and his quad injury likely prevented him for scoring the tying run. Eugenio Suarez struck out with runners on second and third to end the inning.

The Reds are now 2-10 to start the second half.

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (41-59) 2 3 0
New York Yankees (52-46) 4 8 0
W: Montgomery (7-5) L: Castillo (1-4) S: Chapman (12)
FanGraphs Win Probability | StatcastBox Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Eugenio Suarez striking out to end the inning in the top of the 8th, stranding runners on 2nd & 3rd. Yankees lead 3-2. That play decreased the Reds chances of winning by 14.9% (from 28.2% to 13.3%).

Positives

Todd Frazier stepped to the plate with the bases loaded in his first ever plate appearance against the Reds (which also happened to be his first ever PA as a Yankee at Yankee Stadium). Frazier proceeded to ground into a triple play. It was the first triple play for the Reds since September 12th, 1995 (Jeff Branson to Bret Boone to Hal Morris).

Luis Castillo pitched OK tonight. He only allowed 1 extra base hit, but gave up 3 ER in 5.0 innings. Several of the hits Castillo allowed were weak singles tonight. Castillo only struck out 2 batters tonight. His previous low in strikeouts for a game was 5.

Billy Hamilton had an RBI double in the 8th inning.

Eugenio Suarez made a brilliant play at 3B in the 5th inning. Suarez had a weak grounder hit to him with runners on the corners, and 1 out. Suarez’ only choice was to bare hand the ball, and he did. Suarez threw a perfect strike home while on the run for a big out.

Jose Peraza walked tonight! It was Peraza’s first unintentional walk since May 21st. Congrats to Jose on this monumental accomplishment!

Drew Storen pitched a perfect inning with two strikeouts.

Negatives

The Reds didn’t get a hit until the 6th inning, and only had 3 hits for the entire night. Joey Votto went 0 for 4, and is now just 5 for 39 since the all-star break. Votto still has 10 walks since the break, so he is still getting on base more than half of the team.

Zack Cozart pitch hit in the 8th inning. He reached on a fielder’s choice. Billy Hamilton later hit a double that if anyone other than Cozart was running, would have tied the game. Cozart looked so bad rounding the bases that Cozart had to be pinch-run for by Robert Stephenson, and the Reds had to lose the DH because they were out of position players who could play SS.

Michael Lorenzen gave up a home run to former Red, Didi Gregorious.

Not so random thoughts………..

Zack Cozart: It is going to be pretty difficult for the Reds to find any team to give substantial value for a guy who can barely run the bases right now.

Dellin Betances walked two batters and gave up a run. He entered tonight with a 2.62 ERA, and exited the game to boos. Why anyone would want to play in NYC is beyond me.

Up Next:

Reds at Yankees
Wednesday, 1:05 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio, MLB Network* (out of market only)
Homer Bailey (8.56 ERA) vs Luis Severion (3.21 ERA)

 

All statistics are used courtesy of Fangraphs, ESPN Stats & Info, and Baseball-Reference.

48 thoughts on “Reds turn first trip play in 21 years, but fall to the Yankees

  1. Yes he did. That is why he did no start. Notice some were blasting . Price because he did not start Cozart. Finding fault in some decision by another person is easy.

  2. Let’s move away from manager decisions as why the Reds might lose 100 games. This team has major flaws. The pitching is terrible. Despite moments of hope most of the time pitching disappoints. There is no position where the Reds have the best player at any position. The closest is Votto but Goldschmidt, Freeman, Rizzo , Bellinger are either close or even better. The rest of the Reds, ex Cozart & Suarex are a bunch of nice AAAA players. Until the draft produces some real studs the outlook is bleak. Winker, the slow corner outfielder with zero power is not the answer.

    • Scooter is a decent player on a absolute hot streak. Duvall was leading the NL in extra basehits about 2 weeks before the break. They have some talent but Price isn’t maximizing it. Why not put Peralta in yesterday when it was a 1 run in the 7th?

      I get that Price would be the scapegoat, but what I don’t understand it that the Price defenders always say the manager doesn’t make that much difference. Well if thats the case, then why all the ardent defending for a position that doesn’t matter? If someone knew takes your McDonalds order tomorrow does it really matter? The truth is that it does matter!! Terry Francona took a team minus 2 of their top 3 starters and their top hitter and still was within a run of winning it all. The Reds are going to need a strong analytical guy that overachieves and not a former pitching coach that can’t manage a pitching staff. Any idiot should know that the 3rd time a team sees a pitcher in a game then they start to zero in on the tiring starter. What does dummy do? He leaves Adleman in to go from a respectable 6ip, 3 er to 6.1 ip and 5 runs.

      • The same Terry Francona whose record over his first 4 years as a manager looks very similar to Bryan Price’s? The same Terry Francona who oversaw the greatest collapse in history with the 2011 Red Sox? That’s your example of a manager ” that matters?”

        Let’s assume after 4 losing seasons Price is fired…..the 4th season in particular had moments of optimism yet ended with 97 losses in a dreadful finish.

        No reasonable person would argue that firing him wasn’t justified…..and amazingly things shake out in such a way that next year Price is managing the Dodgers…and they have 8 solid years and win a couple of titles. Would your opinion on Price change…or did he just happen to be the manager and that success was almost certain to occur anyway?

        The absurd hypothetical I just described is basically what happened to Terry Francona

        • If the manager doesn’t matter the Reds should hire you or me for 1/10th the cost of Price and apply that money toward better bench players.

          Evaluate the manager based on their use of their given resources, not by comparisons with those who have experienced success without evaluating how well Francona or Madden uses their resources. Compare Price with some managers who failed miserably without any future redeeming success, too, if you want to give Price an objective pass for his stupid decision making; show why you think Price will become smarter in the future to avoid having a lousy future managerial record as well. There are many more managers who managed their resources poorly than managed them well if only because it has taken those in charge of baseball many many years before realizing how poorly prevailing thoughts existed until analytics were applied to the game.

          • Price makes about 1 million per year so the cost savings of hiring you for 100k doesn’t pay for much. Given that managers don’t unilaterally make any franchise altering decisions you would likely win/lose about as many games as Price. …..given the same level of talent, Joe Maddon would also win about as many games as Price.

            I don’t think Price will become “smarter” in the future…….though if he manages a team with better talent he will certainly seem “smarter”. Some guys happen to be at the right place at the right time and some aren’t. If Sparky Anderson had taken over the 1970 San Diego Padres he likely dies as a car salesman in Burbank. Had he been retained, Dave Bristol likely has a statue and is in the HOF.

            Joe Torre had a losing record over his first 13 years as a manager and then became “smarter” once he inherited the 1996 Yankees. Joe Torre and Sparky Anderson were baseball’s Mega Millions winners.

            Bruce Bochy seems to alternate between smart and dumb every other year….how is that even possible? Sparky Anderson won 102 games in year 1 and lost 103 in year 20…..did he regress as he became more experienced? How did Lou Pinella’s fire and intensity serve those 100 loss Devil Rays? Casey Stengal pre and post Yankees has a record that Bryan Price could laugh at……

            Price makes all kinds of idiotic mistakes……so does Joe Maddon…..they all do.

            I’m not a fan of Price….I think he’s irrelevant.

          • Of course the main factor in a team’s record is the talent of the team, not the manager. That’s not exactly a revelation. Everyone in this discussion would agree with that.

            To jump from that to “managers make no difference” is an absurd leap of logic.

            I doubt a single person in baseball (or broaden that to all sports) – player, coach, general manager, trainer, ball boy – would agree with the claim that the manager is irrelevant.

            You know, there is space between the manager being all-important and being irrelevant. You set up “all important” as your straw man because that makes it easy to knock down.

            What’s your evidence/logic against this claim: Managers can make a difference 3-5 games a year.

        • You could run with this and save a lot of time “You want to fire Price and get a new manager? Why not? Its irrelevant”

          I don’t immediately fire out several paragraphs defending something that I deem as irrevelant…but that’s just me.

        • Chuck didn’t say that the manager doesn’t matter. I believe that his point is that managers are about as good as the talent they manage, not so different from what Steve said. Managers get fired when their teams play poorly,so it would seem that Price’s job is in jeopardy, as perhaps it should be. But I also doubt that a different manager would have gotten materially better results, and our calls for his sacking represent frustration with the team and with Price’s stubborn refusal to do things the way we think they should be done.

    • With a very small sample size at the major league level saying Winker is not the answer may be premature. I remember when a guy called Don Mattingly was said to have no power.

      Team’s that have effective offenses have players with high on-base capabilities. Winker has that. It’s just a matter of finding a decision maker on the Red’s to realize that and get him some sustainable playing time.

    • “There is no position where the Reds have the best player at any position.”

      What does that have to do with anything? It has no bearing on building a winning team at all. Least of all, anything to do with a major flaw.

      • I was thinking the same thing. I’d rather have 8 league average position players than 1 guys who’s the best at his position and 7 who were below average. Baseball is a game where 1 player doesn’t make or break a team.

  3. Other than the triple play, the highlight of the game for me was Peraza’s walk in the eighth inning.

  4. The entire situation with Cozart in the 8th inning left a bad taste in my mouth. I understand using him as a PH. I don’t understand on two levels why he was left in the game to run the bases. At the immediate level, they needed a runner who could score from 1st in the event of an extra base hit. At a second level more important than who won or lost a meaningless (for the Reds) game, Cozart was put into a situation where he was more likely to aggravate his already injured quad at a time when the Reds are supposedly trying to trade him in the next 5 days.

    Earlier Tuesday RLN ran a post about the opportunity cost of carrying the third catcher all season. Well, if Cozart comes up injured and untradeable, add this to the top of the list. All season long, we have seen the team “shorten” the already short bench (3rd catcher) even more when they felt they needed an additional bullpen arm. Did it occur to anyone that since they were playing 3 consecutive DH games, it might be a prudent idea to follow suit and do as many AL teams do; shorten the bullpen in favor of an additional bench player? End rant.

    • I turned some things over in my mind, and this is what I concluded Price must have been thinking:

      If Price had put in a pinch runner for Cozart when he was on 1st and they scored the tying run on Hamilton’s hit, you could be looking at an extra innings game with one of your best hitters already burned. In that case, it made sense to leave Cozart in so he could hit in the extra innings, if they should come to pass. But then of course, once Price saw just how bad he looked, THEN it was time to take him out.

      This in turn led to these two string of thoughts:

      1. Price is still playing to win the best way he knows how. Is this a good thing? Would we be crucifying him if he were obviously playing not to win? I think a lot of us here would be ok with the Reds tanking and getting another nice draft pick, but what about Joe Casualfan? Price has to at least keep up appearances for them, even if the end result (Reds lose) turns out the same. It would probably help the Reds slightly more to get a higher draft pick, but Price is the manager, and part of his job description is to win games. What is Price supposed to do?

      2. Speaking of job description, how was Price not aware of how badly Cozart was injured that he would ask him to run the bases? Isn’t another part of his job to know how his players are holding up and communicate with them? How can there be such a disconnect there that Price wouldn’t realize how bad things were until after seeing Cozart in action? Or did his desire to win override his common sense of protecting the health of his player?

      Price does a lot to rub people the wrong way, but I think #1 shows he’s at least trying to win, even if doing so at this point would actually be worse for the Reds, long-term. but #2 to me is inexcusable. How can a manager be so out of the loop on the condition of his players? Does he not watch them when they warm up? Does he not talk to them? Or if he knew, why would he risk it?

      Questions to ponder.

      • Here is @ctrent reporting on the situation
        http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2017/07/26/cozarts-quad-injury-comes-inopportune-time-reds/511438001/

        Cozart is among his primary sources. Sounds like the quad aggravated on his run to 1st base to beat the DP attempt. In real time Ctrent had tweeted that Cozart and Benavides (1B coach) seemed to be discussing Cozart’s leg. Cozart is quoted as saying he didn’t “say anything” because he didn’t want to force the decision to remove him. After he reached 3B on the Hamilton double, Hatcher (3B coach) apparently took it upon himself to signal the bench send out a replacement runner.

        I think it has been a devil’s deal for Cozart to keep playing despite the risks and that the player and team both signed off on with knowledge of the risks. That doesn’t make it a wise decision for either party or nor mean that it has been well managed

        • Jim, we are reading the same tea leaves. Both the team and Cozart are in a no-win situation. If Cozart shuts irt down for the season or even most of the remaining season in order to let his quad heal properly, both the team and Cozart lose. Cozart is playing for a contract this off season and the team is hoping for a trade to materialize. Both Cozart and the team are aware of the risks and I beliee both have signed off on those risks.

          Cozart has been able to maintain his production at the plate, despite his quad injury, but unfortunately (and understandably) his defense has suffered, his baserunning has suffered and his on-field performance has been ugly and painful to watch. Among those watching are the scouts and I can’t see anyone touching Cozart this season with the reasonable expectation that he could succumb to the quad injury at any time and be done for the season.

          The quad injury, on top of Cozart’s injury history and age, is also going to negatively impact his off season contract. There’s simply no way the Reds can or shouold extend a qualifying offer to Cozart. There is a good chance that Cozart’s market could completely collapse during the off season and the Reds might be able to resign Cozart to a one-year or multi-year, incentive-laden contract during the off season.

          • CTrent and Zach just put up a podcast made after the game. In it Trent says Cozart tweaked the quad on the run to 1st but the real aggravation happened on the 1st to 3rd jaunt. Trent by inference also questions Cozart’s future prognosis, i.e. the best case scenario is that the injury is resolved over the winter.

            I guess my question is where would a possibly gimpy legged Cozart fit anywhere in the Reds plans for 2018? He sounds like a DH candidate to me.

            Here’s the direct link to the podcast. For anyone blocked by their paywall, it is also available via iTunes and GooglePlay,

          • I agree. Votto had a quad injury that cost him a half season…it’s silly to think cozart can continue to play…put Peraza their and give him 50 games.
            I also agree the market is collapsing for cozart and he could end up signing a very modest deal.

            He had major injuries.hes getting older…he hasn’t been able to sustain his health in 3 seasons. Also…every franchise has a SS plan…they either have their guy or one is close. My sense is the reds will keep Suarez at 3b….similar to them keeping Phillips at 2b.
            Suarez is playing 3b well and hurting solid…leave him alone.

          • There are degrees of quad injuries and types. An injury can be made worse. With quads, tendinitis can become tendonosis. That’s what happened to Joey Votto. Here’s the link to a post I wrote a few years ago about Votto’s quad injury. It discusses the different degrees of injury.

            https://redlegnation.com/2014/08/15/vottos-injury-adding-insult/

            Cozart needs rest. My guess is that his playing time the past couple weeks has been partly dictated by the trade market. It’s clear that no team is going to take a shot on Zack now, with hope he can play the rest of the year. At least no one would offer anything of value for him.

            It would be in Zack’s interest for the Reds to shut him down now until September. Rest is the only way he’ll get better. A month may not even be enough time. But if Zack can get back on the field for a few weeks in September and prove he’s healthy, it should re-establish value for him in the free agent market.

        • I would shut Cozart down and put him on the 10-day DL, with the hope he can play a 2-3 weeks in September and establish some value for his off season contract. It’s the right thing to do. Move Herrera to the 60-day DL and shut him down for the season. Move Blandino to the 40-man roster and promote him to the 25-man roster into a platoon with Scooter at 2B. Peraza plays SS every day for the remainder of the season or until Cozart is able to play effectively.

          • I think they will hold out on DLing Cozart until after the deadline unless he projects as being out until September.

            Once the deadline passes, they may follow your plan but with hopes he can come back and have a hot couple of weeks and be moved in a waiver deal before 1 September.

            He’d probably be worth the gamble of 5-6 weeks salary to a playoff bound AL team who believed he was refreshed and not likely to be over taxed if used strictly as a DH.

          • This makes fantastic sense… I agree with Jim below though that they will probably not DL Cozart until next week. Trade possibility right now is near zero percent but trade value with him actually on DL is zero percent.

      • The Reds handling of Zack Cozart has been completely indefensible and driven solely by the All-Star Game/Donkey PR Gold.

        Through May 12th, Cozart started 31/35 games, a roughly 143 game pace. On 5/12, he played all 17 innings of a game of a game on the west coast (sound familiar?). He sat the next 3 days (2 games), and then from 5/16 – 6/12 he started all 20 games in 21 days. He came out in the 6th inning on June 12, missed 3 more days ( 2 games), started on 6/16 and 6/17 and then went on the DL.

        He came off the DL on June 30th literally so he could start in the ASG. This isn’t even debatable, the Reds actually admitted it. The 4 games before last night were the first time he had started 4 games in a row since coming off the DL. Now the Reds have ruined their ability to trade him, just as they did with Scott Feldman and his knee.

        Next time the Reds want to give fans the opportunity to see a donkey at the stadium, they should just parade around the front office instead of buying a farm animal.

      • I think Jim explained #2 pretty well. Cozart aggravated the injury running to 1B. I don’t think this can be on Price. He really couldn’t know just how badly Cozart was hurting.

        As for #1, I don’t think it’s about the fans so much as it is about the players in his clubhouse. Players don’t want to play for a manager who’s not trying to win ballgames. It’s all about the players. As soon as a manager seems to have given up on trying to win games, he loses the clubhouse. That’s also my argument for why Price sometimes doesn’t seem to be all in as far as the rebuild. He’s trying to win games. Orders from the top are the only way he doesn’t do this and then the players get ticked at the GM instead of the manager. Still carries some of the same effect in that the players want to try to win games.

  5. Not only do the Reds need to figure out which of these youngsters can pitch in 2018, but need to make sure they figure out which pitchers can pitch consistently in the bullpen as well. I don’t really trust B Wood. Jury out on Tony C.?? I don’t think he can pitch in the major leagues by primary relying on his fastball 90 to 95% of the time. Also…the Reds not hitting at all right now. You know Pitchers will make adjustments to different teams, as the year goes along. Reds Hitters need to make adjustments as well as the year goes along.

  6. With Nunez going to Boston, the market for Cozart seems essentially gone. Put him on the DL, at least for 10 days, if not longer. Give Peraza a chance to walk again before the season is out, and find a way to rotate a 4-man outfield with Winker in the mix. I think Cozart’s big time FA contract is diminishing, given the fact that he hasn’t been able to stay on the field post-injury. The “mutual interest” in an extension may be justified, and it may be the kind of gamble the Reds need to take, if the terms are reasonable.

    • At this point I see no way Cozart would turn his back on a formal Qualifying Offer (~$18M) if things get that far down the road. I also think that is too much for the Reds to pay him for a single season.

      Somewhat hidden by Cozart’s offensive surge, the cracks are starting to show in his defense just as they did with Brandon Phillips. Some of the defensive falloff is probably related to the current quad issue; some is probably the beginning age related decline. I’m not really sure that the two can be separated right now.

      I believe that between health and age it is a fair question whether he will ever again be a 6 or 7 day a week league average or better SS. This is just a tough situation for the team and unfortunate situation for the player.

      • His defense was still “Good Cozart” at the beginning of the year. Without a doubt, the quad is causing him troubles in the field too.

        • Listening to @ctrent and @zachENQ on their podcast right now. Trent just said the best case scenario for Cozart is that the injury lasts only to the end of the season, i..e. it could be a chronic thing which plagues him off and on the rest of his career.

      • I think a 2 year / $20M-$22M deal will be offered to Cozart as an extension. That would be almost double his current salary. A fair and equitable deal for both parties.
        This comes as a result of Peraza’s bad season and Herrera’s very questionable shoulder. Two big failings in this season of big failures. The only spot Herrera secured was his usual DL spot. Peraza may have secured a spot on the trade train this winter. Most of the talk has been about the failings of the starting pitching setting The Rebuild back a year, and rightfully so. But this middle INF failing runs a close second in setting this Rebuild behind.
        Thank goodness for Cozart and Scooter. Things would have looked a lot uglier without them.

        • That wouldn’t be bad for the Reds but I’d rather move Suarez to SS. Senzel is coming pretty fast. I think they could roll him out in late April and see what happens? Cozart’s body is just breaking down and it could be another $20 mil down the drain for nothing.

      • If $18 million would be the qualifying offer, then I agree, much as I like Cozart, that is way to rich for my budget.

  7. Just another loss in typical fashion.Don’t score much unless we hit homers.I tuned in late last night to see how Castillo did and to see how many hits we had.Actually Billy was at bat in the eight and when he first hit the ball I thought it may go out then when it didn’t I thought tie game.Then reality set in Billy with a homer or Cozy scoring from first wasn’t ever going to happen.We can discuss all day long about Price and never agree on if he is a good manager or not.I personally think he could win a bunch of games with the Nats or Dodgers but so could anybody else.He just has to go because we just has to go in my opinion.He may end up managing a great team and turn in to a Hall of Famer but lets just move on from him.

  8. Pretty nice start for Castillo all in all. Love the composure, many of the hits were fluky, and you can’t help but like the easy gas and the changeup.

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