2017 Reds / Game Thread

Reds vs. Marlins — July 21, 2017

After going 1-6 through the first seven games of the 10-game home stand and being outscored 58-16 in those six losses, the Cincinnati Reds (40-55) try to salvage what’s left of it as they welcome the Miami Marlins (42-51) to town for a three game series at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is at 7:10 EDT.

The Marlins come in hitting 9th in the NL in OPS and 7th in OBP. However, they are 3rd in the NL in batting average and 3rd in total hits. Overall, it looks as if the Marlins and the Reds have similar offenses in terms of the numbers. The Reds are 6th in the NL in OPS and 8th in OBP.

As for the pitching, Marlins pitchers have been better than the Reds (what team isn’t?), but not a lot better. The Marlins currently rank 11th in the NL in ERA, and are tied with the Reds for most walks given up in the NL (363). Unlike the Reds, however, Marlins pitchers do not give up the home run ball. While the Reds have allowed 166 home runs, the Marlins have surrendered only 102 this season.

Starting Pitchers

Pitcher IP ERA xFIP K% BB%
Homer Bailey 21.1 10.13 4.95 15.6% 10.1%
Jose Urena 89.1 3.93 5.53 15.9% 8.6%

It’s hard to judge Bailey on the five starts he’s made thus far. In two of those games, Bailey pitched against one of the best offensive teams in the Washington Nationals and got shellacked, giving up 16 runs on 14 hits in 5.2 innings. But he has also shown flashes of his old self against Arizona and Colorado, pitching six innings or more and giving up only one run in each of those starts. He has struck out 17 in 21.1 innings, but he’s also walked 11. 

In 2015, 25-year-old Jose Urena was the Marlins’ #4 prospect. He’s now in the middle of his third year in the majors, and has already surpassed his total innings pitched from the previous year. After starting the season in the bullpen, the Marlins moved him to the rotation at the beginning of May. He’s a hard-throwing right hander, with an average fastball velocity of 95.7, and has a changeup and a slider in his arsenal. 

Urena is coming off a rough start against the Dodgers, in which he gave up five runs in three innings. The Dodgers are beating everybody right now though, so it’d be unfair to judge Urena’s performance based on that start.

Lineups

Marlins                                                                Reds

1. Dee Gordon (2B)
2. Giancarlo Stanton (RF)
3. Christian Yelich (CF)
4. Marcell Ozuna (LF)
5. Justin Bour (1B)
6. J.T. Realmuto (C)
7. Derek Dietrich (3B)
8. Miguel Rojas (SS)
9. Jose Urena (P)
1. Billy Hamilton (CF)
2. Zack Cozart (SS)
3. Joey Votto (1B)
4. Adam Duvall (LF)
5. Scooter Gennett (2B)
6. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
7. Scott Schebler (RF)
8. Tucker Barnhart (C)
9. Homer Bailey (P)

Giancarlo Stanton and his powerful swing makes his once a year appearance at GABP. Stanton currently leads the NL in home runs with 30 and has five home runs in 19 career games in Cincinnati. Left fielder Marcell Ozuna might be the one to watch this weekend, however. The first-time All-Star is having a breakout year, hitting .315/.373/.555, with an OPS of .928, and has continued to hit since the break, going 7-for-23 with two runs scored.

Much like Ozuna, Zack Cozart has continued his solid hitting after the break, going 7-for-18 with two home runs, three walks, and three runs scored. His trade value keeps going up, and the intrigue surrounding the Reds and whether they will trade him or won’t trade him continues.

Five batters in the Reds lineup tonight have had success against Urena, including Scott Schebler who is 3-for-3, and Tucker Barnhart, who is 1-for-2 with a home run.

News and Notes

Final Thoughts

I’m not sure how I feel about this move. On one hand, Peraza’s plate discipline has been downright awful this season. He has just six walks this season and 51 strikeouts. And in 2016, his walk/strikeout numbers were similar. On the other hand, he’s only 23 and could use the experience to improve his game. The Reds definitely shouldn’t give up on Peraza yet, and being that the team is out of contention, this could be the perfect time to work on his approach at the plate. This is the time for the Reds to evaluate what they have in the young stars, to see who could potentially help them contend in 2018.

I’m guessing that because Scooter Gennett is playing well, Bryan Price wants to reward him with playing time. If Peraza is indeed pressing too much as Price thinks he is, Price sees this as a good opportunity to get Gennett playing time and give Peraza a bit of a break. And of course, everything could change in a week if Cozart is traded by the deadline.

77 thoughts on “Reds vs. Marlins — July 21, 2017

  1. Peraza will play a lot even if Cozy isn’t traded.This is no big deal and may not last long anyway.

    • He probably should go to Louisville to play every day with the specific instructions on improving strike zone discipline and recognition. That’s not going to improve playing three or four times per week with the big league team.

  2. The Cards sent Grichuk down to work on his offense and is back and looking good. Why can’t we send Peraza down to work on his offense? Arizona sent Marte down and then brought him back up . He as well is 23. Wishing Bob Steve all the luck on Saturday.

  3. Scooter needs to platoon at 2B…period. It took way too long to make the move from Peraza to Scooter, so I don’t expect Price or DW to recogonize the obvious and put a platoon partner on the 25-man roster and in the lineup for probably another year.

  4. Stoked to see Stephenson comingt back on the 25-man roster and in the starting lineup this time. I just hope he gets an extended opportunity as a starter this time.

  5. “Unlike the Reds, however, Marlins pitchers do not give up the home run ball.”

    The all star HR hitting contest notwithstanding, the Miami expanse does not give up HR like GABP.

  6. Don’t bench Peraza. Send him to L-ville to learn the zone and refine his approach while playing. Makes more sense than benching him (unless the Reds have concluded he won’t or can’t improve).

    • With him only bring 23 I hope the organization doesn’t give up on him. Although this is the same organization that let Hamilton get to the big leagues without learning to bunt. Still amazes me.

      • I’m afraid that even if Billy could bunt it wouldn’t make that much difference. His problem is that he can’t hit the ball hard enough to get it past a drawn in infield.

  7. Hopefully we don’t see Scooter in the outfield ever again and our favorite on base machine Winker gets to play some.

  8. Stephenson got 8 starts way back in 2016 and I hope he gets more this time but I doubt it.

    • I hope he earns the chance to get a lot more starts by reducing his walk rate, as he did at Louisville, and generally pitching more effectively than he has in previous chances.

  9. Anyone from the nation going to be taking in the game from CBTS Pavilion this evening? We’ll be up there for the 1st time this year.

  10. Excited to see Stephenson get another shot. Kid obviously has all the tools in the world, just couldn’t harness it. Let’s see if things are starting to click. His AAA seem to say yes, but I want to see him do it at the MLB level.

  11. I am glad to see Bailey,Castillo, Romano.and Stephenson 4/5 games. Tough sledding as the reds have 31 games against the Cubs/Brewers/Yankees/Red Sox/ Braves/ solo make up with the Indians..

    Even if they play .500 against the Pirates/cards/mets/Padres / Marlin’s…..you have to think they are 10 under against the playoff contenders…..that’s a 69-93 ish record and another top 5 pick.

  12. The move to Scooter over Peraza is about a month tardy but that’s Price. On the other hand, hitting and “D” really hasn’t been the issue.

  13. This is a first. Rain delay and it’s not raining. Game has been delayed. Tarp not even on the field.

    • A very slow-moving rain shower is most definitely inching its way over downtown Cincinnati.

    • Yeah, and I’ve been defending him and defending him. Looks like he’s damaged goods.

  14. I hope Stephensen does well.The Reds don’t have the same patience they showed with Disco and Finny.Unless they give these young pitchers a legitimate chance to pitch without fear of being sent back down after getting hammered a few times they might as well just release them or trade them all.This kid pitching tonight is a good example of a good organization that was indeed willing to let him take his lumps the last two years and some this year but he still gets the ball tonight.

  15. Tonight’s lineup is probably the best the Reds have to offer against a rhp. Finally!

  16. Amir Garrett implosion in Louisville.
    He is hurt. No way a guy plays twice in the All Star Futures game….makes a top100 prospect list and strikes out 12 against the Orioles in 7 innings and then fails this badly.
    Pull the plug and dig deeper. Something is very wrong.

    • Hasn’t been right since his hip injury. He may have been trying to fight through something. Good chance you’re right.

  17. Not with Billy leading off.Put him at 9 and move everybody up one and it is.

  18. That extra year of control they gained by sending him down doesn’t look like much right now.Sure he is hurting.

  19. Dubious beginning. Jam-job single and ringing double. Finally got an out but a run in. Now IF in and only the 1st inning. I would give up the run for an out here.

  20. Think I will call it a night.I know Homer is in spring training mode but just can’t watch us lose the game in the first inning.

  21. Seen this story before.One more inning and I’m out of here. 2-0 with runners at second and third, one out before Reds first at bat.

  22. Nine pitch inning for the kid that got hammered the last time out.Bye Bye.

  23. Is Homer Bailey reinventing himself? Not the power out her…..but a strike thrower with movement. . ….keep them off balance….. keep them guessing 2017 version of 2012 Bronson Arroyo….throw any pitch on any count??? Homer Bailey isn’t dominant but he is pitching….yes indeed….pitching with a purpose…….and throwing strikes and good hitters aren’t barreling baseballs and arent comfortable and are making outs instead.
    This is fun to watch.

      • That’s a good shout, Old School, on this being fun to watch.

        He has thrown a couple of breaking pitches where I said, “Huh? Oh, wow.”

        Bailey grinding out innings with minimal damage, regardless of how it’s done, is like a monsoon in the middle of a drought in Reds Country right now.

  24. Homer Bailey has been able to dial up 96-98 mph tonight when needed. That’s good news from a health perspective. Always worry about velocity when pitchers return from elbow surgery.

  25. Another assist from the outfield! They seem to test Duvall and Billy all the time for some reason?

  26. Homer looks pretty decent. He had really good stuff before the break too. I’ll take 180 ip and 3.80 era next year from him.

  27. And the beat rolls on for Bailey… He is competing in the strike zone and mostly winning…. Marlins have some hitters.

  28. If feels like the old recap cliche’ “scattered” definitely applies tonight.

    Homer Bailey has scattered 8 hits over 6 innings so far tonight.

    Reds only 2 hits? Not so good so far tonight.

  29. The Reds are in the ballgame in the 7th. inning and then this defensive play. Terrible.

    • Wow….Scooter makes the error but they would’ve got out of it with no harm except Joey wasn’t paying attention and wandered off the bag? Their guy wandered off first so of course Joey should go behind him for the double up? The ball beats Gordon easily but Joey is 2 steps from the bag? 2 losing teams not paying attention

  30. They just have too many guys struggling right now….can’t afford dumb errors and giving away runs! Scooter makes the physical error but Joey’s mental hitter bothers me more. He had another one in this homestand! They had bases loaded & 1 out and the ball was hard hit to him behind the bag…the play was the force at home and he hesitated and only got the out at first.

        • This mini-slump started after he had four days off for the all-star break.

          Yeah, he had a couple at-bats in the ASG, but he also had three days off and hasn’t had to travel yet since the break.

          • well considering he had to travel for the AS game and all the activities that go along with that it is far from a normal all-star break now is it? He was able to have monster 2nd half seasons as a result to having a real break after the AS game.

        • I agree with you. We’re not going anywhere anyway? Give Duvall a day off and then play him at 1st the next day.

  31. Let’s do something here to get Bailey off the hook!!!! He no way deserves a loss.

    • Billy should be dfa’d immediately for grounding out. Cozart needs to be tarred and rolled in donkey hair for that 2-0 fly out.

      • What if the game goes past midnight? Will they have to fire him in game? Will Jim Day be the one that tells him?

    • Options:
      a. Have Hamilton to squeeze bunt
      b. Replace Hamilton with a pinch hitter
      c. Let him hit

      What option our beloved manager chose?

  32. Game ends with pinch hitter (using the term loosely) Alcantara averaging .200 with a .500 ops. Where have you gone Jesse Winker, RLN turns it’s lonely eyes to you . . . .

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