The Reds (37-48) have righted the ship a bit after losing 14 of 15 games, taking six of the last 10 contests and splitting a four-game series with the Rockies in Coors Field. They’ll wrap up the first half of the season by heading to Phoenix to take on the Diamondbacks (52-34), who boast the third-best record in baseball. Unfortunately for them, the Dodgers are in their division and own the second-best record.
First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET.
Tim Adleman continues to be a solid innings-eater at the back of the Reds’ rotation. He gives up a few more home runs than you’d like to see and his walks have spiked over the last couple of months, but the Reds can typically count on him for at least five innings of three-run baseball. The 29-year-old has a tough matchup tonight — both in terms of the offense and opposing pitcher he’s facing — so he’ll need to keep the ball in the park and limit the free passes.
Adleman has never faced any current D-Backs hitter.
After a disappointing debut season in Arizona, Zack Greinke is healthy and back to his ace form. The right-hander flirted with a no-hitter on May 11 and has been the anchor of a strong D-Backs rotation. One year after posting his lowest strikeout rate since 2007, he has bounced back to whiff batters at the highest rate of his career. On top of that, his already-low walk rate has decreased even further. Only six of 74 qualified pitchers have a higher K%, and just six have a lower BB%. When batters do put the ball in play against him, they aren’t doing much with it, as his soft-contact rate (22.4%) is the 10th-best in the league. Greinke has been particularly dominant at Chase Field, where he holds a 2.67 ERA, 2.86 xFIP, and 33.3 K%.
Here is how Greinke has performed against Reds hitters in his career (stats courtesy of Baseball Reference):
|CF Billy Hamilton (60 wRC+)||CF A.J. Pollock (101 wRC+)|
|SS Zack Cozart (165 wRC+)||RF David Peralta (114 wRC+)|
|1B Joey Votto (162 wRC+)||1B Paul Goldschmidt (155 wRC+)|
|LF Adam Duvall (122 wRC+)||3B Jake Lamb (134 wRC+)|
|3B Eugenio Suárez (128 wRC+)||SS Chris Owings (104 wRC+)|
|RF Scott Schebler (117 wRC+)||2B Brandon Drury (98 wRC+)|
|2B José Peraza (64 wRC+)||LF Gregor Blanco (85 wRC+)|
|C Tucker Barnhart (106 wRC+)||C Jeff Mathis (29 wRC+)|
|P Tim Adleman (4.61 xFIP)||P Zack Greinke (3.12 xFIP)|
— Bryan Price penciled in the usual Reds lineup tonight.
— Jesse Winker was recalled from Triple-A, but it appears he’ll just be a bench bat this weekend.
News and Notes
Stat of the Day
The battle of these two first basemen will be an interesting one to watch. Both are all-star reserves behind starter Ryan Zimmerman, but you could make the case for either Votto or Goldschmidt to start instead. Here’s a comparison of their numbers:
The Reds have been pretty terrible on the road this season (14-28), but the series against the Rockies was a step in the right direction. Although tonight’s pitching matchup heavily favors the Diamondbacks on paper, baseball is a weird game. Let’s see if Adleman can defy the odds and outduel Greinke (or at least keep the Reds in the game).