Game Thread

Reds at Diamondbacks — July 7, 2017

The Reds (37-48) have righted the ship a bit after losing 14 of 15 games, taking six of the last 10 contests and splitting a four-game series with the Rockies in Coors Field. They’ll wrap up the first half of the season by heading to Phoenix to take on the Diamondbacks (52-34), who boast the third-best record in baseball. Unfortunately for them, the Dodgers are in their division and own the second-best record.

First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET.

Starting Pitchers

Name IP ERA xFIP K% BB%
Tim Adleman 79.0 4.67 4.88 21.9% 9.6%
Zack Greinke 109.1 3.05 3.12 28.7% 5.1%

Tim Adleman continues to be a solid innings-eater at the back of the Reds’ rotation. He gives up a few more home runs than you’d like to see and his walks have spiked over the last couple of months, but the Reds can typically count on him for at least five innings of three-run baseball. The 29-year-old has a tough matchup tonight — both in terms of the offense and opposing pitcher he’s facing — so he’ll need to keep the ball in the park and limit the free passes.

Adleman has never faced any current D-Backs hitter.


After a disappointing debut season in Arizona, Zack Greinke is healthy and back to his ace form. The right-hander flirted with a no-hitter on May 11 and has been the anchor of a strong D-Backs rotation. One year after posting his lowest strikeout rate since 2007, he has bounced back to whiff batters at the highest rate of his career. On top of that, his already-low walk rate has decreased even further. Only six of 74 qualified pitchers have a higher K%, and just six have a lower BB%. When batters do put the ball in play against him, they aren’t doing much with it, as his soft-contact rate (22.4%) is the 10th-best in the league. Greinke has been particularly dominant at Chase Field, where he holds a 2.67 ERA, 2.86 xFIP, and 33.3 K%.

Here is how Greinke has performed against Reds hitters in his career (stats courtesy of Baseball Reference):

Lineups

Reds

Diamondbacks

CF Billy Hamilton (60 wRC+) CF A.J. Pollock (101 wRC+)
SS Zack Cozart (165 wRC+)  RF David Peralta (114 wRC+)
1B Joey Votto (162 wRC+) 1B Paul Goldschmidt (155 wRC+)
LF Adam Duvall (122 wRC+) 3B Jake Lamb (134 wRC+)
3B Eugenio Suárez (128 wRC+) SS Chris Owings (104 wRC+)
RF Scott Schebler (117 wRC+) 2B Brandon Drury (98 wRC+)
2B José Peraza (64 wRC+) LF Gregor Blanco (85 wRC+)
C Tucker Barnhart (106 wRC+) C Jeff Mathis (29 wRC+)
P Tim Adleman (4.61 xFIP) P Zack Greinke (3.12 xFIP)

— Bryan Price penciled in the usual Reds lineup tonight.

— Jesse Winker was recalled from Triple-A, but it appears he’ll just be a bench bat this weekend.

News and Notes

Stat of the Day

The battle of these two first basemen will be an interesting one to watch. Both are all-star reserves behind starter Ryan Zimmerman, but you could make the case for either Votto or Goldschmidt to start instead. Here’s a comparison of their numbers:

PA HR AVG OBP SLG wRC+ fWAR
Joey Votto 371 24 0.316 0.429 0.622 166 3.8
Paul Goldschmidt 369 19 0.314 0.431 0.578 155 4.1

Pretty ridiculous.

Final Thoughts

The Reds have been pretty terrible on the road this season (14-28), but the series against the Rockies was a step in the right direction. Although tonight’s pitching matchup heavily favors the Diamondbacks on paper, baseball is a weird game. Let’s see if Adleman can defy the odds and outduel Greinke (or at least keep the Reds in the game).

56 thoughts on “Reds at Diamondbacks — July 7, 2017

  1. Can someone clarify Finnegan? This was a non-baseball injury ON TOP of and AFTER his baseball injury that ended his season? or his season ended because of this?

    Glad the Reds keep going out of their way to bring WInker up to sit the bench and learn his place as player #25 after Kivlehan and Alcantara. He’s only a AAA All star

    • Alcantara Is about useless as can be. There are plenty of guys that can do his job and better. Namely some guy named Winker. I heard he is pretty good.

    • And apparently Finnegan fell jumping onto a dock and hurt his other shoulder. Does this make him the modern day Carl Povano?

  2. I hope the Cincy-Lville shuttle stops for Winker and that Price at least gets him into games in the late innings until changes occur where Winker can be the needed Reds leadoff man. The Reds need Winker at leadoff because of his OBP ability followed, hopefully, with Votto batting in second position.

  3. Well at least that explains why Winker was pulled from the Bats game after 4 innings last night. THey had to make sure he made his flight in plenty of time to ride the bench again.

    • It’s ridiculous !!!! So sick of Price and his ineptitude me incompetence as manager of the Reds. He needs to be gone at the end of his year, period. Don’t want him anywhere close to this team when the Reds are really ready to compete in the next year or two. Tired of his clown act !!!

      • Is it price? I don’t know. I can’t believe Dick Williams says we’re bringing up Winker…use him as u see fit? I think it get backs to Billy…the reds don’t want to risk Winker succeeding. Because this is Billy time….what if Winker played 8 games in a row and did well? Can’t risk that….Billy’s bobblehead day is coming up….
        Dick Williams does what Phil Castellini tells him to do. We got a Billy bobblehead day coming up…that’s like almost a Pete Rose marketing event….and all eyes need to focus on the Billy bobblehead.

      • The manager doesn’t decide how the organization’s best prospect is handled.

        Price doesn’t unilaterally determine who plays….nor does Joe Maddon or anyone else. This isn’t the 70’s where most GM’s were the idiot brothers in law of the owner who weren’t deemed smart enough to run the lumber yard. Billion dollar businesses aren’t operated that way.

        • Ok then , put Dick Williams in the dugout and let him make out the lineup then. Price must be more useless than I thought Chuck.

          • Try to accept that your dislike for Price doesn’t necessarily fit into the overarching plan that the front office has for the club…

          • Ain’t really worried about it one way or another. I will always pull for them to win regardless of who the manager is. Don’t dislike him as a person , I dislike him as a manager of the Reds – nothing more, nothing less.

  4. Tyler Mahle got smacked around tonite. Most of the youngsters aren’t really hot right now? I think I’d go with Stephens or Bob Steve to replace Adleman but they’ll prob ride Adleman for the whole 2nd half and learn nothing…..same as when Winker gets called up.

  5. That is a ridiculous rule.

    At worst, Hamilton should be sent back to first base.

  6. How did that happen? Cozart called for inteference, so Billy is out after stealing 2nd

      • Definitely looked like a strike to me.

        I checked Gameday, and apparently the pitch tracker wasn’t working in the first inning, but I just re-checked it on the DVR.

  7. Chalk that great catch up to a run saved by Billy….Hope he is OK…took quite a jolt

  8. First he’s out stealing second. And he can’t double up a player on a routine flyball

    He is definitely a liability to this team

    • I get your sarcasm – excellent analysis! If Billy weren’t leading off, no doubt we’d be leading the division…

  9. What a catch by Billy! He is amazing….seriously doubt anyone else catches that ball. He had to come a loooong way fast! Adleman needs to go though….rarely gets deep into a game because he has to be careful and goes 2-2, 3-2 on everyone and he’s also a flyball pitcher which equals too many HRs in gabp or a place like this.

    • Whily ol’ Goldy was at bat, I was just thinking that Adleman could have one of the more unlikely quality starts for the Reds all season.

      Wishful thinking.

  10. Duval doubles on the 1st pitch. I bet the pitch counters aren’t happy about that

    • Leading the NL in extra basehits:) Pretty good for somebody everyone but about 3 of us on here wanted to trade.

  11. Scooter better be nicked up….ignorant to play Peraza over him??????? They’re already going w/Corbin (a lefty) on Wed I think? Sit Scooter then? Price makes Dusty look like Morgan Freeman (Bruce Almighty version)

  12. Guys on the D’Backs feed said about Peralta, “Get ready for this at bat. It won’t take long.”

  13. It seems like the Dbacks win every Greinke start 10-2. Adleman gives up a double to a guy hitting .180 and hits the pitcher. He sucks and should be back in the independent league or wherever he came from. He fooled them for a short while but he’s not big league caliber

  14. Adelman needs to go to long relief….transition lorenzen to a starter…the young relievers and bullpen are ahead of the young starters and can handle the job. Hi

    Make lorenzen a starter. Adelman is not a major league starter.

  15. Suarez 0-9 with 5ks vs Greinke….now 0-11 with 7. Price ignores stats more then Dusty did? They used to say Greinke didn’t care in KC towards the end but he competes pretty well with a 91 mph fastball!

    Rooting for Milw other then Ryan Braun. They’re rolling again tonite….who is Jesus Aguilar? Their GM is pretty astute…..all they need is a Sonny Gray or somebody and they can win the division. Or atleast try to somewhat match whatever the Cubs do.

    Gnite all

    • Milwaukee isn’t going to deplete their farm system and set them self back years to acquire a guy that they’ll need to trade in 2 years before he hits UFA…..the Cubs will drive up the Price to either keep him from the Brewers or force the Brewers to pay so much it totally screws them.

      I believe Sonny will soon be a Cubbie

  16. On a somewhat lighter note. What’s up with adults at games shouting, “swing”. I’ve heard the same guy for three innings now when the Reds bat almost every pitch. Heard it a few games now. Reminds me of Billy Madison on every golf stroke. Somewhat of a pet peeve of mine.

    Either that or it’s Greinke shouting it every pitch. It’s a effective strategy against this lineup

  17. The reds are a 50 loss team at the all Star break..they are on pace to lose 90 games for the third year in a row. Billy is playing and batting leadoff with his career .295 obp……. Jose Peraza….with his negative WAR plays….while scooter Gennett sits…Tim adleman and Blake wood pitch.

    The commissioner’s office may have an issue with tanking and going for the #2 pick again….

    • The Astros tanked. The Reds will very likely win more games for the second year in a row. The Commissioners Office will have no concerns.

      • Benching Gennett…a 3 WAR prorated player who has done something only less than 20 players ever have done…… and playing a negative WAR player instead is tanking. Losing 90 games 3 years in a row and not playing a AAA all star is tanking. Pitching arroyo and adelman and wojo is tanking.

    • Yes. Yes. And yes. They aren’t playing to win this year. Period. As much as we would like them to win right now, that’s not in the cards. It is clear that the organization is willing to lose singular games in pursuit of longer term goals.

      It’s better to sit back and enjoy a victory when we get one, but otherwise get used to ugliness on a daily basis…

      • There is a distinction between developing young players who can’t quite win yet….vs playing bad players who can’t compete instead of younger players or succeeding players who can. Tanking is benching Jesse Winker when you are about to lose 90 games 3 years in a row….tanking is benching scooter Gennett for Jose Peraza….tanking is having the worst rotation in baseball…..and continuing to run out retreads….when u have a potential all star in your bullpen throwing 2 innings a week.

        • Perhaps – who knows. I root for a win every night, but otherwise I’ll choose patience. I’m a huge Reds fan but I know there are people in the organization who are far better informed than me. Second guessing every move in every game is pointless…

          • Just because people are more informed, doesn’t mean they’ll make the right decision. I think the management of the Reds from the field up cannot make good choices.

  18. Naw.

    At the start of the season, the Padres were openly discussed as running out close to a AAAA roster (especially the pitching staff). No one in MLB or the media raised an objection.

    Retrenching through the draft and international signings is the only sustainable hope for San Diego, with the checkbooks of the Dodgers and Giants in the same division.

    The Reds are more than a season away from sustainable contending, and may sell in the second half, but they aren’t at the bottomed out stage like the Padres.

  19. There is that play that started all the shenanigans in the Rangers at Blue Jays.
    Shin-Soo Choo played the role of Goldy in that one.

  20. Reds are the masters of garbage time runs.

    Despite all they have done in this half inning, DBacks have win expectancy of 98.7% following Peraza’s single.

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