2017 Reds

Reds at Rockies – July 5, 2017

The Reds and Rockies meet tonight in game 3 of this 4 game series in Colorado. The series stands at 1-1 which sets tonight as the pivotal game of the series.  The winner will do no worse than split the series and will have a shot a winning it outright in Thursday’s matinee. The loser…. well, that’s simple zero sum math everyone can figure out on their own. Despite the Reds scoring 8 runs on Tuesday, we still haven’t had a typical Coors Field rock’em sock’em game yet. I’d gladly take a pass on having one tonight so long as the Reds pick up the win.

Starting Pitchers

Scott Feldman gets the call for the Reds. While it would be euphemistic to call the righthander a staff ace, in the last month his performance has stabilized at a level  that merits calling him the backbone of the Reds starting staff. In six June starts, Feldman completed 36.1 innings with a 2.97 ERA.  His FIP and xFIP numbers were both just more than a run higher than his ERA, indicating he may enjoyed greater than his fair share of good luck in June.

Righthander Jon Gray will be on the mound for the Rockies.  Gray, 25,  is yet another Rockies starter who was a top 10 overall  draft pick, being picked #3 overall by the Rockies in 2013. In the last three games, the Reds will have faced the 2013 draft #3 overall, and the 2014 draft  #8 and #9 overall picks. Sounds like the Rockies have a plan for dealing with the Coors Field shooting gallery.   This will be Gray’s second start since returning from a foot injury which cost him 2 months on the DL. In his return appearance against the DBacks, Gray worked  6 innings allowing 2 runs (both earned) while striking out 10 and walking only 1. Don’t expect a soft touch because he is recently back from injury.

PITCHER xFIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9
Scott Feldman 4.09 1.01 2.95 7.37
Jon Gray 3.65 0.98 3.53 9.33

Bullpens

Both teams used around 3 innings last night spread across three relievers each  Neither should be severely distressed for tonight. Asher Wojciechowski drew the thankless job of pitching the 9th inning for the Reds with a 7 run lead and handled the situation well. Michael Lorenzen and Wandy Peralta each threw an inning and are unlikely to go any longer than that if called on tonight.

Lineups

REDS

1. Billy Hamilton (CF)
2. Zack Cozart (SS)
3. Joey Votto (1B)
4. Scooter Gennett (LF)
5. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
6. Scott Schebler (RF)
7. Jose Peraza (2B)
8. Tucker Barnhart (C)
9. Scott Feldman (P)

ROCKIES

1. Charlie Blackmon (CF)
2. Raimel Tapia (LF)
3. Nolan Arenado (3B)
4. Carlos Gonzalez (RF)
5. Mark Reynolds (1B)
6. Pat Valaika (SS)
7. Alexi Amarista (2B)
8. Ryan Hanigan (C)
9. Jon Gray (P)

Scooter Gennett is in for Adam Duvall, both in LF and in the batting order.

Ryan Hanigan (remember him?) gets a  start for the Rockies behind the plate.

 

Final Thoughts

Here is breaking news that is not one bit good.

Mesoraco’s left shoulder is the one which was surgically repaired about a year ago.

The injury is “not serious” (for now)….

 

The deadline for signing 2017 draftees who are not college seniors is 5PM EDT Friday. Word on the street is that Reds overall #2 pick Hunter Greene, the only still unsigned member of the draft’s top 10, has completed his physical; but, there still has been no announcement that he has signed. It will be a big relief when official word finally comes especially given this late Tweet from Zach Buchanan

Even with the Reds most reliable starting pitcher to date on the mound tonight, Fangraph’s  pregame  win probability projection has the Rockies as big favorites (57/43%).  Hopefully the Reds will blow that out of the water just like they did last night’s projection.  Go Reds!



Statistics and data from Fangraphs.com,  Baseball Reference, and MLB.com

 

68 thoughts on “Reds at Rockies – July 5, 2017

  1. The Reds and their “strains “. Hopefully Mez doesn’t go on the 60 day DL. Scooter batting cleanup! Lol

  2. They need to find out about Peraza so its smart to find some starts for him when Cozart/Scooter are playing. My issue is that they could’ve done the same thing w/Winker…..maybe 3-4 starts a week by moving people around.

  3. With the new 10 day D and 5 games before the 5 day All star break …this seems almost like a good scripted rest for mesoraco….the 5 day DL.

  4. 9 pitches, and that includes Votto. It would be nice to see a few more pitches at the top of the lineup

    • Only one pitch was out of the strike zone, and at least all three batters made decent contact.

  5. Billy swings… 1 pitch 1 out.
    Both Peraza and Hamilton are afraid to hit with deep in the count… .hurry up and get a decision on the first hittable pitch you see….that’s the approach…and you can’t change that in the major leagues.

    What DW does the second half of this season at the leadoff position is now the third biggest question behind the development of starting pitching and Zach Cozart.

          • Because Votto does it over and over with 2 strikes. Hamilton does it on an 0-0 count. Votto is having an historic season of not striking out while leading the league in walks and home runs….Are you suggesting Votto and Hamilton have similar 2 strike approaches and Hamilton is being unfairly maligned for his high K% and low OBP% and low walk % as a leadoff hitter?

  6. Great graphic on FSO showing feldman usage of the cutter and curve …60% …more than anyone on the NL…..the reds need to focus on pitchers more than their 2 seam fastball velocity at Goodyear on March 1 in the bullpen. Hindsight is 20/20….but Mike Leake is worth his FA contract….because he throws easy and pitches. I want to see Tyler Mahle pitch.

  7. Cozart on a 6 for 43 (.140) streak with only 1 double and 1 walk. They won’t get much in a trade. I say play it out and see how he responds and can he make it thru September?

  8. I’m not sure why we’re so hard on a guy who’s hitting .262/.324/.385/.709 in the leadoff position in the past 2.5 weeks, while they guy hitting .130/.304/.241/.545 in the #5 position during the same stretch is being praised for his patience and all the walks he’s drawing.

    • I know….can you believe it? Joey Votto was 0 for his last 6 until that lucky triple …send him to Daytona.

      • Wait, are you trying to give me the “small sample size” argument. 😀

        I’m talking about how they’re doing right now. Not all season. Not their whole careers.

        But if you want a bigger sample size, how about .207/.324/.335/.659 for Suarez in the LAST TWO MONTHS?

        • Or you could just sample the year or career….Billy Hamilton is 40% below league average…and the most putrid weak low obp no power lead off hitter 4 years in a row….Eugenio is 11% above league average…..he’s 2nd in walks…playing a great 3b and more WAR than Billy and Peraza combined… Are you really suggesting Billy is better than Suarez?????

          • *facepalm*

            I said exactly what I meant.

            We are being hard on a guy who is “getting it” over the past few weeks, and we are praising a third baseman, batting fifth, because he is getting walks!

            One need not suggest something silly like “Billy is better than Suarez” to understand the inconsistency happening here.

  9. Looking beyond the All Star break at possible rotation moves, it was a tough night for Cody Reed tonight. 4IP/ 6R (5 earned)/ 7H/ 6BB (ouch!) 4K.

    • Thats not good. Suarez/Cozart in major slumps. Always more bad news then good with this organization it seems? Perhaps Romano will step up in the rotation but I don’t expect that either? Mahle is 22 and Jackson Stephens is 23 so maybe they’ll get better?

      • Stephens throwing 95-96 vs the Cubs was a surprise. Velocity is only part of the puzzle but its better to have it then not.

  10. Impressed with Jon Gray’s ability to hit Hanigan’s target at 96-97 mph. Schebler hit that ball hard but Gray was trying to bury the ball at the knees away for the doubleplay. We have guys with the arm but they have no idea where its going.

  11. 1 road win in a row….thats maxing it out for the Reds. Had enough…goodnight boys. I was just saying the other day that Feldman was better then Adleman and some of the other marginal guys because he doesn’t allow so many hrs. If we resign him…he’ll go full Arroyo next year. The Reds feel like my Pacers…..whatever they choose will end up wrong.

  12. This game is a perfect example of why hitting is overrated…Gennett has done nothing…despite his 2 hits….but Peraza’s superior 2nd base defense has given the reds a chance to win this game. Suarez’s rbi was irrelevant. Gennett ‘s 2 hits and RBI are irrelevant.

  13. Yay Suarez!

    Glad to see him contribute a little bit (even if it was a swing at a first pitch out of the strike zone). 😉

    • Keep shoveling that hole you are digging.
      You are definitely on to something….Suarez is not part of the future!!!

      • LOL, are you doubting my sincerity? I want Suarez to start succeeding again. I have nothing against they guy, and I think he can be a long-term part of the puzzle.

        I’m just not going to praise a third baseman for getting walks while swinging a horrible bat.

        You got me wrong guy.

        Enjoy the rest of the game.

        • Suarez is scuffling lately..but is second on the team in walks and playing great defensively and is still a solid player….but…… criticizing him in order to explain away the egregious failures of Billy Hamilton is a false argument. Billy Hamilton’s proven inability to hit has nothing to do with Eugenio’ s struggles….more of the narrative that Billy plays by different rules than every one else.

          • LOL, it wasn’t supposed to be a defense of Hamilton, guy. Hamilton was just an easy example because, if anything, he can’t do anything RIGHT in some eyes.

            It was all about Suarez. Finally the TV guys are starting to talk about how badly he’s playing lately.

            But I’m rooting for Suarez. Because I like the Reds, and I want their players to do well. I’m just not going to pretend they’re doing well when they’re not.

          • I believe that Hamilton is an unusual player that is difficult to evaluate using traditional and the more commonly accepted advanced metrics. Why do the Reds continue to play him and let him lead off? In my mind, 1 of 3 possibilities;

            1. The Reds are incompetent. They don’t understand run creation, lineup construction nor the poisonous impact of a consistent out maker getting the most at bats.

            2. The Atlanta Falcons traded Brett Favre. The Reds want to absolutely, positively, beyond a shadow of a doubt make sure this guy can’t consistently hit and/or get on base because they’re terrified the second they give up on him he turns into Ricky Henderson.

            3. The Reds pay a group of people with advanced degrees in mathematics, engineering and other “smart people things” really good civilian money to analyze things to a far greater degree than what we read about on Fan Graphs. Perhaps they have proprietary data that shows Hamilton has an ancillary impact on pitchers that enhances the production of Votto, Duvall etc…..and that his low OBP is “offset” by these ancillary factors.

            I want #3 to be the case….though i often think it’s #1……while reality is likely #2.

  14. Chris Welsh just hypothesized that Hernandez emergence could open up a starting spot for lorenzen?????

  15. I came back to see the Reds have kept it close. Cingrani has been so good but thats kind of typical Tony. Alcantara blows…absolutely worthless but we caught a break. Holland is due to blow a few….who knows?

  16. Not the Reds night… Feldman gives up a homer to a pitcher that had never hit one and was a career .106 batter. Schebler with a double play and a strikeout in crucial ABs with RISP. Bad calls that went against Peraza and Barnhart. The Reds had their chances and it just didn’t fall their way. Try for the split tomorrow.

  17. I’d like to blame the pitching as status quo, which 5 runs isn’t very good, but 26 runners left on base isn’t going to get it done. Some of these guys (Suarez, Schebler, etc) could definitely use the upcoming break. Get em tomorrow boys.

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