A Minors Obsession

Minor League All Questions Answered

The Minor League Baseball season is more than halfway over, so what better time to bring out an All Questions Answered topic here at Redleg Nation? If you’re new to the site, it’s pretty simple: Ask your question(s) in the comments section and I’ll give you an answer. While my specialty is in the minor leagues, I’m more than willing to share my thoughts on the big league stuff as well.

You will need to follow a few simple rules to participate:

The rules for the All Questions Answered part of today.

Try to avoid questions that will require me to look up answers (such as: Who was the last guy to steal 25 bags and hit 25 home runs in the system).
Try to avoid overly long answer-type questions. I tend to give thorough and detailed answers as it is, so please don’t have me type out a novel.
Each user can ask up to three questions.
Ask your questions before 9PM and I will be sure to answer it. If you ask after 9PM on Wednesday, then I can’t guarantee that I will answer your question.

Special note: I’m typing this from a hotel in Georgia. I’ll be traveling the rest of the way to Daytona to watch the Tortugas (Reds Advanced-A team) play for a few days before heading to Pensacola to watch the Blue Wahoos (Double-A) for a few more. That means that I may not be able to start answering questions until about 5pm or so, once I get to the ballpark and get things squared away. But, I promise I will answer all the questions before Thursday morning and hopefully sooner than that. i will definitely start answering some from the ballpark once I get settled in and batting practice for Daytona ends.

45 thoughts on “Minor League All Questions Answered

  1. Hey Doug thanks for doing these they are really insightful. Do you think Nick Senzel gets called up in September or sometime next season or do we have longer to wait than either of those times? Also do you really think the Reds would sign Cozart or you think that was just talk to try and possibly boost his value?

    • I don’t think he gets called up this season. He’s not on the 40-man and doesn’t need to be next season, either. And there’s a big 40-man roster crunch coming this offseason as it is. And it’s not likely that they plan to have him starting next April, either, so there’s no real need to force the issue. I do think we will see him up at some point in 2018 though. He’s too good to keep down for too much longer.

      And, it is tough to say on Cozart. We haven’t exactly seen how this front office operates when it comes to things like this. I’d like to think they aren’t going to sign an over 30-year-old shortstop on a career year to an extension and this is just posturing, unless he’s willing to take a MASSIVE discount compared to what he would get in free agency.

  2. 1) At one point this season, I asked what Vincej would have to do to move into the future conversation. He’s since put up a slash line so far of .291/.345/365/710. Which is certainly better than Peraza’s MLB line (I realize MLB and AAA are not the same). My question is this: if (when) Cozart is shipped, might we see Vincej and Herrera brought up to become the SS/2b at MLB level, and Peraza can bump Alcantara from the bench?

    2) By my math, there are 9 names that need added as part of the rule 5 and/or 60 day DL. My list is Travieso, Disco, Finnegan, LaValley, Long, Mahle, Weiss, Vincej, and Blandino. Since 9 roster spots will be tough to find, is there anyone on my list you may omit, with the likelihood they wouldn’t be picked up?

    3) As part of a B to question 2, I’ve got the Reds looking in to trading Cingrani, Wood, and Adleman to free up spots. The first 2 are arb eligible, so a 1st year player making the minimum would be more team friendly. Other than Wojo, who on the 40 man do you believe should be eyeballing be traded/waived.

    • 1. I don’t think you’ll see Vincej bump Peraza, but maybe you could see Vincej bump Alcantara and become the utility bench guy. With that said, and I wrote about it last week, they need to sit Peraza down and tell him that he absolutely needs to walk more and swing at bad pitches less, or he’s going to the minor leagues to work on that exact thing.

      2. I’d definitely leave Vincej unprotected. I like him, but he’s a guy you can generally find on minor league free agent deals when you need them in December every year. Blandino – I want to see how the rest of the season goes, but he’s got my attention right now. Travieso, I’d probably try to get him through waivers. Can’t imagine someone picking him up coming off of shoulder surgery.

      3. I can’t imagine you’d get much in return for any of the three. I’d still be exploring trading one of the current starting corner outfielders. I wouldn’t move them just to move them, but for a good offer, I’d do it and play Winker in left and whoever I didn’t trade in right. You’re losing power and some defense with that move, but gaining on-base percentage and money.

  3. What are your thoughts on bringing Winker up and putting him in left field while moving Suarez to short and Duval to 3rd?

      • How bad was Suarez at SS? I thought he just made bad throws and booted balls, both mistakes he seems to have corrected. I doubt 10 wins if Cozart gets traded, is Peraza that much better than Suarez?

          • exactly, you change suarez from plus 2 to minus 2, duvall from plus 1-2 to minus 2-3. Winker is likely a minus 1-2. maybe it’s only 6 wins less but that stinks.

        • I know that when he was at SS I thought he was horrible. Maybe he would be better now but he’s been so good at 3B I hate to mess with that.

    • I don’t like it. Dival was never a quality third base option. You’d be weakening three different defensive positions with that move. Every single player is probably two full steps worse than the guy they’d be replacing on the defensive spectrum.

  4. 1) With how both are performing at their level, do you think we could see Jose Siri bumped up to Daytona and Miles Gordon moved to Dayton?

    2) Assuming he rebounds and looks more like he did in April and May, do you see the Reds possibly moving Suarez in an offseason trade to free up 3B for Senzel, and use someone like Kivelhan or other roster filler for a couple weeks to start 2018 to prolong his team control? Or do you think Senzel will need a little more time than that and June/July as a more realistic callup date (safely past the super 2 date)?

    3) With Zack Weiss looking like he is returning to form, along with the emergence of Wandy Peralta, and with Jimmy Herger and Ariel Hernandez on the horizon, do you think the Reds non-tender Blake Wood going into 2018?

    • I don’t think they’ll bump Siri up. He got his head handed to him in Dayton last year. Let him have some more sustained success this year and if he keeps it going next year, get more aggressive with him. For Gordon, at 19-years-old, it would be a surprise if he got bumped up, but not shocking. However, I think if it were to happen, it would be later in the year, not in the next week or two.

      I think they will try to keep Senzel down until June/July next year.

      I certainly think it’s a possibility, if they don’t trade him sooner.

  5. The 40-man roster seems to be a great topic as some have created many different scenarios to move prospects up. Why is Keury Mella on the 40 man roster? He was a throw in from SanFran in the Leake trade. His numbers just don’t look like they are improving and the initial MLB bio talks of arm trouble and poor mechanics.

    Doug while you are traveling how about an update on Keury. It seems that Mahle (AAA-Louisville) has demonstrated that he should be considered ahead of Keury. A brief review of the numbers seems to scream the same thoughts. If 2018 is the year the REDS become relevant again, Mahle looks to be part of that rebirth while Keury seems destined to be just “another career prospect”.

    Thanks,
    George

      • Yes I know the above, the question is why is Kuery still on 40 man roster, (his results at AA are not stellar) while Hahle (AAA-Louisville) is being blocked by the lack of an opening on the 40 man. I know Rule 5 plays a part in this but based on his results at AA, he is not giving any indication of progress.

    • Mahle is on the 40-man because a team may have taken him as a bullpen guy if he was unprotected. I think that’s where he’s going to wind up, so I wouldn’t pay a ton of attention to his stats as a starter at this point. He throws hard and his fastball moves. It’ll probably play up in the bullpen, too.

      The 40-man roster isn’t about the best 40 men in the organization. It’s about protecting other teams from taking your players for next to nothing. Mahle has to be added this offseason, and he will be.

  6. 1. If you had to choose one pairing, who would you want? Senzel-Trammell or Greene-Downs? Which pair has the higher ceiling? Floor?

    2. Do you think Shed Long is being overrated a bit? His splits in High-A this year were dramatic, and show that he was far better at home than away where the ballpark in Daytona is more hitter friendly, and now he’s slumping hard in Pensacola.

    3. Is there a hold up on getting Jose Garcia into games right now in the DSL? I seem to remember Alfredo Rodriguez getting into games pretty quickly after signing his contract.

    • 1. Senzel/Trammell and it’s not close. We’ve already got results on them and the results are outstanding. Ceiling wise, while I’m sure some other evaluators will disagree with me, I’ll stick with the 2016 crop, too. It’s close in that one, though.

      2. No, I don’t. While Daytona does play hitter friendly compared to the rest of the league, and he did show heavy splits in 2017, he hit very well away from Daytona last year after he was called up.

      3. He hasn’t played in a long time. And while I don’t know how his stuff has been going when it led up to signing, for Rodriguez, he was getting ready to play on July 2nd. He knew he was signing on that date.

  7. This may be more of a rhetorical question, but I completely whiffed on the transaction that moved Seth Mejias-Brean from the Bats to the Raniers at the beginning of May. I know SMB had lost the luster from any prospect status some time ago. Was this simply a dump to open a roster spot at Louisville, similar to the Renda dump recently. Was there any return coming to the Reds organization in the transaction?

  8. You have had a very busy June, turning into a busy July. Great work as always.

    1. With the announcement that Nick Travieso has had shoulder surgery, is this the end of the line for Travieso as a starter?

    2. Hunter Greene still is not signed. I know what Sheldon has reported that he “might” sign today. Did you foresee this long of a wait before he would sign? Its all about the Benjamins $$$$$$.

    3. As the standings sit today, the Reds would have the 5th overall selection in next year’s draft. Do you think the Reds will finish 2017 with a top-5 or top-10 draft selection spot in next year’s draft?

    • I have a very busy March through September lol. There are literally zerp off days for me in those months. On a good day I’ll only work 6 hours in those months.

      1. We will find out in about 18 months. While shoulder surgery is incredibly scary, and nothing you want to ever see anyone go under, some guys have had it and remained a starter.

      2. I figured it’d be a case where he signed in the last week of the deadline. And it should always be about the $$$$$$ when you are getting drafted. It’s literally the only chance you’ll ever have to get guaranteed money. Get every last penny that you can for you and your family.

      3. Top 10, yes. Top 5, probably not.

    • Thanks for pointing out the article. Good read. I hope Hunter signs today or tomorrow. I wonder if he will pitch or play shortstop?

      • He will pitch and DH, at least the first year. I’d be shocked beyond belief if they let him play in the field at any point in which they still plan to let him pitch.

    • Holy crap – that young man is impressive but that is some scary stuff. Just let the kid play ball – the rest will take care of itself.

  9. Is there any thought to sending Peraza down to have him work on his swing and hitting approach? Almost no BBs, his swings look mostly like jabs at the ball (save the 440+ ft HR yesterday) – he looks like he is mostly over-matched at the MLB level.

    Secondly, is his apparent lack of a solid bat impacting mgmts decision of whether or not to trade Cozart?

    Thanks. Really like your column/blog/writings – whatever we call them these days.

    • I would have done it the second Cozart came back off of the disabled list and told him he needs to stop swinging at so much outside of the zone and until he demonstrates a better understanding of the zone, he’s not coming back up. But, I don’t think the Reds are considering it for some strange reason.

      I really hope the Reds aren’t letting this decide how they handle Cozart.

      And I call my whatevers “multimedia productions”.

  10. Hi doug. Avid reader of your site. Keep up the good work.

    1. Do you think Jimmy herget makes his MLB debut and if successful, will he stay?

    2. Still don’t know what to think of Billy Hamilton yet. Which center field prospect has the best chance to take his spot if it comes down to it?

    3. Besides storen, which reds reliever has the best chance of being traded this trade season?

    Thanks

    • 1. It wouldn’t surprise me if he does. He’s not on the 40-man, and doesn’t have to be this offseason either, but when you’ve got a legit arm in AAA and he’s dominating, you make that move. I think he’s a legit big league arm. Probably more of a 7th/8th inning type than a closer, but I think he’ll be good.

      2. Tough to say. I’m not sold that Taylor Trammell’s going to play there every day. Plenty of speed to do it, but his arm is a serious question mark out there. He, Siri, Friedl and Fairchild all have a chance, but all are in A-ball or rookie ball….

      3. Wood. Cincgrani. But I wouldn’t be completely surprised if someone paid through the nose for either Lorenzen or Iglesias.

  11. 1. Are you giving up on billy hamilton after this season if his production doesn’t pick up at all before the end of the year?

    2. Do the reds currently have a top 5 farm system in baseball in your opinion?

    3. Would you consider playing Scott schebler in center field 3/4 games a week to get Jesse winner playing time in the majors? Would schebler be able to play at worst a shin soo choo level of defense in center?

    Thanks!

    • 1. I’ve never thought he was going to really hit enough, but there’s nowhere near a better option right now for center field, either. But please, for the loe of God, bat him 7th or 8th.

      2. I’d say so, as long as Hunter Greene signs. That will get the two Top 25 caliber guys in the entire minor leagues along with several other Top 100 guys and tons of depth behind those guys.

      3. No. I’d play Schebler in center, twice a week, at most. He’s just not a center fielder. He’s probably a tad better than Choo was, but Choo was a better hitter, too. And this pitching staff needs way more defense than the one pitching with Choo.

  12. Assuming Cozart is moved before the deadline,

    1. Beyond “Best Available Player”, is there a particular position you’d target for a prospect in return?

    2. Who comes up from AAA to take his place on the 25 man roster?

    3. Do you think Vincej ever gets a shot with the Reds?

    • 1. Not really, no. Honestly, I’d look for a center fielder in the AAA range. I don’t think the Reds will, but I’d at least be considering it. I think they’ve got guys that can be ready in a few years, but no one seems to be that guy in AA/AAA in the system.

      2. I guess it depends on what they acquire. Are they just going to slide Peraza to short and start Scooter at second? Maybe they add a guy to the 40-man, if a spot opens up with trading Cozart, for Vincej or Iribarren, someone who can at least back up shortstop. Maybe they keep Alcantara around just because of his ability to sort of play shortstop and they bring up someone with more of a bat.

      3. If he doesn’t this year, I don’t think so.

  13. Hey Doug,
    How do you see the OF situation shaking out next year? I’m having trouble seeing a huge difference between Shebler & Duvall and am not sure what more Winker or (Ervin) will prove in AAA.
    *Not that Ervin’s torn the cover off the ball, it just seems like there’s not much that I see changing overall evaluation.

    • I think Hamilton, Schebler and Duvall are the starters unless there’s an injury or a trade.

      Winker’s got to hit for more power to break into the lineup unless one of the corner guys gets hurt or just completely falls off the map in terms of production.

  14. Hopefully a moot point. Doesn’t Hunter Greene’s leverage come with significantly more risk than the Reds’ leverage? Thanks.

    • Both sides have leverage. Greene can go to a juco and re-enter the draft next year. The Reds can make a big offer and if he doesn’t sign, then they still get the #3 overall pick next year.

      With that said, I still think there’s more than a 99% chance he’s going to sign.

  15. Doug:

    NO big deal, but Beau Amaral was just released. Is this just a case of time running out for him with the Reds??

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