The Reds finally looked somewhat competent last night against Milwaukee, slugging their way to an 8-6 victory. They good guys will look to keep up the hot bats tonight in game two, slated to start at 7:10 EST.
The Brewers, just like last night, will send a pitcher out to the mound with a much better ERA than xFIP. Unlike last night’s starter Junior Guerra, Chase Anderson has kept his walk rate somewhat in check. The difference in Anderson’s ERA and xFIP can likely be traced to BABIP, which currently sits at .274, well under his career .295 rate. The Reds will once again attempt to take advantage of a pitcher who’s traditional season statistics scream stud, but who’s sabermetric statistics show dud.
Luis Castillo will make his Great American Ballpark debut tonight. The fireball-throwing prospect pitched decently in his first outing last week, perhaps letting nerves get to him a bit as he gave up 5 walks in 5 innings. He was able to keep damage off the scoreboard though, even if the Reds bullpen imploded after he left. Castillo doesn’t walk guys in the minor leagues, and generally has pretty good control on all of his pitches. We’ll see if the home crowd can help calm his nerves a bit tonight.
|2B Eric Sogard (160 wRC+)||CF Billy Hamilton (61 wRC+)|
|1B Eric Thames (134 wRC+)||2B Scooter Gennett (137 wRC+)|
|LF Ryan Braun (119 wRC+)||1B Joey Votto (157 wRC+)|
|3B Travis Shaw (127 wRC+)||LF Adam Duvall (121 wRC+)|
|RF Hernan Perez (88 wRC+)||3B Eugenio Suarez (119 wRC+)|
|CF Keon Broxton (106 wRC+)||RF Scott Schebler (123 wRC+)|
|C Stephen Vogt (72 wRC+)||2B Jose Peraza (61 wRC+)|
|SS Orlando Arcia (84 wRC+)||C Tucker Barnhart (87 wRC+)|
|P Chase Anderson (5.21 xFIP)||P Luis Castillo (5.21 xFIP)|
The Brewers will shuffle things up slightly in game 2, with Hernan Perez taking over for Domingo Santana in Right, and newly claimed, former Oakland Athletic Catcher Stephen Vogt takes over behind the plate. Vogt seems to be falling off a cliff in his age 32 season. He’s slashing .215/.286/.354 with -1.2 FanGraphs BSR, -7.2 Off, and -3.1 Def. In other words, he’s been well below replacement level so far this season. We’ll see if he can bounce back after the move from the AL to the NL.
Tucker Barnhart will take over for Devin Mesoraco behind the plate tonight for the Redlegs. Other than that, everything stays the same.
News and Notes
Last night was fun to watch, even if it doesn’t erase the huge losing skid the team is trying to pull out of. Winning games like that – especially against division-leading rivals – goes a long way in building confidence that even if the rebuild isn’t done, it’s certainly got key pieces in place. The offense is legit – now we just need the pitching to catch up. A bright young star takes the mound again tonight – will he buck the trend of young Reds pitching prospect bursting into flames on the major league mound?