As I touched on a little this morning in my Three Up, Three Down column, the Reds are now solidly in last place in the NL Central. None of us would have been surprised about this fact entering the season. I’d be willing to bet a few of us would be surprised, however, if someone told us we’d be facing the first place Milwaukee Brewers as the calendar is about to turn over to July. But this is where we are. The Brew Crew are a game above the defending World Champion Cubs, and haven’t really shown any signs of stopping.

It’s a tale of two teams, both of which were in committed rebuilds at this time a year ago. The Reds are firmly still there – even if some fans, and at times seemingly the team’s brass – feel otherwise. The Brewers are at a point where they can start seriously considering calling it quits on the rebuild and start playing for something more than an early draft pick.

None of these two teams’ futures will be decided on the mound today, however. The Reds will look to stop the bleeding against Milwaukee, having gone 2-6 against the Brewers so far in 2017. Here are the starting lineups, news and notes for the first game in the series, scheduled for 7:10 PM tonight.

Starting Pitchers

Name IP ERA xFIP K% BB%
Junior Guerra 37.2 3.11 6.04 16.7% 13.6%
Tim Adleman 69.0 4.30 5.01 21.1% 9.7%

Starting tonight for the Brewers is Junior Guerra. Guerra entered the year at the top of the rotation, and while others have since stepped up to replace him, he’s still given the Brew Crew a fine season statistically. The gap between his ERA and xFIP is likely due to the high walk rate, matched with the low earned run numbers. He’s stranding 88% of runners that get on base, which is ridiculously good. You’ve got to think this will catch up with him eventually, however.

 

The Reds will send Tim Adleman to the mound. It seems like every time I get the opportunity to write about Adleman, I always say the same thing. Solid, dependable, not-world-beating. In a rotation with the makeup of the current Reds starting five, you’ll absolutely take that. Adleman has been pretty dang good for the Reds so far this season, a team without a lot to show from its starting pitching. He’s a big reason, alongside fellow non-world-beater Scott Feldman, that the Reds aren’t much, much worse off than they already are.

The lineups

Brewers Reds
2B Eric Sogard (162 wRC+) CF Billy Hamilton (57 wRC+)
1B Eric Thames (137 wRC+) 2B Scooter Gennett (137 wRC+)
LF Ryan Braun (122 wRC+) 1B Joey Votto (156 wRC+)
3B Travis Shaw (124 wRC+) LF Adam Duvall (116 wRC+)
RF Domingo Santana (116 wRC+) 3B Eugenio Suarez (114 wRC+)
C Manny Pina (96 wRC+)  RF Scott Schebler (123 wRC+)
CF Keon Broxton (105 wRC+) C Devin Mesoraco (123 wRC+)
SS Orlando Arcia (78 wRC+) 2B Jose Peraza (61 wRC+)
P Junior Guerra (6.04 xFIP) P Tim Adleman (5.01 xFIP)

It’s easy to see why the Brewers have had a stranglehold on the NL Central lead since May 27. Look at those wRC+ numbers. They don’t tell the whole story, of course, but they go a long way in doing so. Ryan Braun is back in the lineup after missing a month on the DL. He’ll look to continue where he left off, as he was batting .262/.350/.524 before hit hit the DL.

It’s more of the same from Cincinnati. The team’s lowest offensive producer is leading off, getting more at bats than anyone. Can Billy Hamilton truly provide enough speed on the bases to justify continuing to lead off?

News and Notes

Final Thoughts

The Reds are currently not as good a team as the Brewers. That statement is meant only to reflect the quality of the product on the field today. Injury, timing, and development are all factors that both teams have dealt with, but roster construction has been on the forefront of both teams’ priority lists over the past few seasons. Whether the Brewers current record and play on the field is indicative of them having ‘won’ the NL Center rebuild-off can’t be decided just yet, and won’t be decided in tonight’s game. So sit back, relax, and go Reds!

Jordan has been a lifelong Reds fan, attending games since before he can remember. When he’s not watching, listening to, or writing about the Reds, he’s designing websites, photographing weddings, and hanging out with his friends and family.

Join the conversation! 110 Comments

  1. Comparing positions they are just about equal except one. One just about doubles the other.

  2. The lineups have us matching up against the Orioles.

  3. Is Jesse Winker alive?

  4. Six guys in the Reds starting lineup with wRC+ rate above 110; and the leadoff guy isn’t among them. Only the pitcher has a lower wRC+ than the leadoff guy. Is this extreme sorting out or foolishness or maybe a little of both?

  5. Well, the Reds helped build Milwaukee up in the beginning of the season, let’s try to help tear them down a bit. And for the love of all things baseball, keep Thames in the park please!

    • And Guerra would be an excellent pitcher to give Peraza the “take” sign to about 4 pitches in a row, exploit that walk rate a bit.

  6. I see Reds are bringing up Shackleford and sending Brice down.

  7. I didn’t know we had a take sign for anybody at any time.If we do we sure don’t use it.Taking is a no no with this club.

  8. Braun…aka Reds killer, along with Thames, is back off the DL just in time to come to GABP. How long will it take either of them to go yard?

  9. Billy ‘front row’ Hamilton goes deep !!!

    • He may have had an inside-the-park HR in a bigger park. Looked like it had some decent velocity and it was a classic humpback liner. In little league it was the kind that rolled for days.

  10. Billy has suddenly came to life in the last 4 games.
    2 hits saturday
    2 hits sunday
    1-1 (PH on Monday)
    Now a leadoff HR tonight

  11. Duval goes upper tank!!

  12. We have taken two walks in the first inning and neither one was Votto.Maybe we do have a take sign.

  13. Does Thom not know any advanced stats? He hasn’t cited WAR or wRC+ in his discussion about the ASG. Votto is second in WAR and third in wRC+. IMO, that merits the ASG. He mentioned slugging and not ISO. I think Votto is worthy of the ASG.

    • Thom knows RBI and BA … and little else. Most nights, I’d rather listen to Marty than Thom.

      • Thom just wears me out. Can’t go there.

        • I switched to my computer and selected the WLW audio feed. I see I have the “park feed” option tonight, so that might be an option at some point.

  14. Even with the TOOTBLAN this is more fun than we’ve had in quite a while.

  15. I had a thought with Billy’s “mash” … he could hit for the cycle tonight. He’s gotten the most difficult one for him out of the way first.

  16. Yes it is but true to form we make an out at third and Peraza swings and goes out on the first pitch.We just can’t get out of our own way sometimes.

  17. Guerra is a perfect example of inflated stats. Look at the difference between his ERA and FIP. He’s been very lucky according to those stats. Also his 212 babip against is also quite low, contributing to that luck. You’d never find that out with the TV coverage.

  18. K’s and gopher balls … I’m thinking we really have to out hit the Crew tonight to get it done.

  19. No doubt because they own us so far.It would be nice when we put a crooked number up that we stop giving it right back the next inning.Long night for sure.

  20. So it wasn’t the triceps thing with Finnegan, but a reinjury of what sidelined him in the first place? Not sure I heard correctly on the reporter half-inning on radio feed.

    • Same muscle different location on it. The party line is that they did an MRI before his first rehab start; and, the entire area was healthy. Therefore this is a separate freak injury to the same muscle.
      At times like this is when one wonders if there is an underlying situation stressing the muscle making these tears essentially symptomatic of the underlying issue.

  21. 2 rare events in 1 AB for Votto.
    Pulled foul ball into the stands and an infield pop.

  22. I’m done for tonight.Long way to go but Adleman just doesn’t have it.

  23. Well k.r.a.p. (again).

  24. I am watching this half-inning, wishing it was a Scott Feldman start.

    (Yep, that’s where we are at with the starting pitching at this point).

  25. Friday: Reds score 4 in the 1st and finish with 5.
    Sunday: Reds score 5 in the 1st and finish with 6.
    Tonight the Reds score 4 in the 1st.

    How about they get it going for the rest of the game tonight?? Now they have to as they trail 5-4.

  26. Suarezzzz ties it up!!!.
    6th HR of the game

    • He drove it to right center, which is a good sign for him.

      • Similar thought. Swing looked very sweet. Then Schebler hit one well … but a little too well and right at Braun.

  27. From “where’s that ball?” to a just-in-time quick flip. And that’s a clean inning for the good guys.

  28. Can’t ask for much more from a pitcher in an at bat … a bit robbed.

  29. Oh so close … just foul!

  30. And he goes down on a lousy swing at ball 4 … back to Adelman to hold another inning.

  31. Ten pitch inning from a guy that is just terrible.Please bench Peraza when Cozy returns.He has seen 3 pitches in 2 at bats.Can’t somebody put a stop to his T ball approach at the plate.

    • You came back, James! Same thought about Peraza just hacking at anything. Imagine if he’s on when Adelman smacks that one … of course if he’s on Tim is bunting, so I take that thought back …

  32. Bronson in the WLW booth … starting out speaking very candidly about his status. Actually said “time for me to step away from the game” and “walk away”.

  33. Bronson just confirmed he’s retiring on 700

    • Yep … he’s talking nostalgia … he’s being candid and gracious. Hard to interpret that any other way.

  34. Love.Our.Infield. Suarez does such a great job starting DP’s from 3rd.

  35. Bronson talking about his 85 minor league wins in 7 full seasons there.

  36. “I sleep better when the Reds win.” – Chris Welsh

    Nice way to shut up Thom and his annoying, “you look like you need some sleep.”

    Could not pay me enough to sit in the same booth with that arrogant blowhard for 120 or so games.

  37. Yeah came back to take a peak and while I believe the young guys need to play,Peraza is just foolish at the plate.I can’t imagine anybody allowing this type of thing to continue game after game.Its like he is in T ball and he has to swing.

    • Billy as at least streaky with the bat (like tonight). Peraza seems to just hack away.

  38. Bronson won’t be coaching right now. Direct quote from the man himself. He may look at that in the future.

    • I thought it was funny that he so disliked being traded to the Reds that in his first few months with the Reds, he’d go back in the clubhouse just to watch the Red Sox.

      • I missed that … but he did go on to “gush” about his time with the Reds. I’m sure we’ll give him a 5-star send off yet this year.

  39. No doubter from Votto…2 run bomb!!!

  40. OK, now I actually want to see Joey in the HR Derby. He just murdered that ball.

  41. All together on my 3 fantasy teams I have Votto, Billy, Suarez, Duvall, and Shaw. Not bad for half a game!

  42. Like I said … we’ll have to really out hit them tonight. This is what it looks like.

    • Yeah, only Brewers at Reds games seems to get comments regularly like, “Guerra has given up 7 runs, but has kind of kept his team in this one.”

      (Rockies games excepted)

  43. Is Guerra done? Looks like it. Yep. Counsel made the call.

  44. Castro on the DL for the Yankees. I wonder if they are asking about Scooter?
    I would like Scooter on future Reds teams…but you never know.

  45. Nick Travieso at Pensacola. Season ending shoulder surgery

  46. Good AB by Mez…hit it hard…Sac Fly

  47. Mes looks like he has most of his good stroke back.

  48. Adleman done … let’s see if Tucker can rip into one.

  49. Sounded like he broke that bat.

  50. Time for that bases clearing triple …

  51. Nope another strikeout.

  52. Missed a big chance right there.

  53. 5 runs on 5 hits over 5 innings … and can win, cannot lose … very odd line on Adleman tonight.

  54. Every reds game is like watching a game at Coors or Wrigley with the wind blowing out…what happens when the reds actually play at Coors?

    • Stay tuned. That should be coming up on a road trip very soon. Same Reds time, same Reds channel. (RIP Adam West!)

      • To steal a line from The Jerk …

        “Take his plate away. It just makes me to d*** sad.”

        He will always be Batman for my generation.

        • I giving you +100 on that. Adam West was the best Batman representative ever, in and out of the costume. RIP.

  55. That kind of ate Suarez up a bit … and the near-save by Duvall.

  56. Mez at least learned from his mistake the other day. Fire the ball in front of the plate to 2nd first, then you can get the double play. He did it backwards the other day, and the runner going to 2nd was safe.

    • Yep, that extra second to tag the runner made a difference plus eliminating the force play.

  57. Wild DP! Way to handle that Mes!

  58. 1 or 2 more runs would make things feel a lot safer.

    Ol’ Reds killer Ryan Braun could get 2 more at-bats in this game, with any kind of rally. So could Shaw and Thames.

  59. Nice inning for Tony. Why not give him another inning??

    • He only threw 8 pitches. Price should bring him back! Cingrani, Peralta, and Hernandez could be a nice setup group. I don’t know if Storen is signed but maybe 1 year? They’re going to need to give Lorenzen a shot in the rotation….they don’t have enough healthy arms otherwise?

      Alex Cobb 8 shutout ip, 2 hits vs Pitt. I was impressed w/him vs the Reds. He’s not an ace but he’s pretty good! He’s down to 3.73 era and 3.08 if you take out 1 bad game. He’s as good as Disco. He’ll be 30 so not young but maybe they could pick him up?

  60. I didn’t recognize Thames when he wasn’t in his home run trot.

  61. Is Scooter Gennett an everyday second baseman?

    • Career .524 ops vs lefties…..going to say no

      • .796 vs righties though and an insane .928 this year!! I think he should def get all the atbats vs righties

        • His 2B defense this year, in a small sample size, is much better than in previous seasons, to go with the offense.

          He just turned 27. One season wonder? Or, a late bloomer?

          It would be fun to see the data the Reds actually use during the off-season to project his future, if he is still on the team.

  62. Nats pick up K-Rod. Talk about desperate. He was awful with Detroit this year

    • I guess they wanted no part of our pen guys after what they saw this weekend

  63. 4 up 4 down for Tony and yanked. I like Tony when he doesnt walk guys

    • Cingrani was rolling and they weren’t getting good swings off him but most managers feel like they have to do the lefty/righty thing.

  64. disaster averted…I can breathe again…til next inning

  65. So who gets Saturday? Reed/Bob Steve are doing ok in AAA but still walking too many guys. Tyler Mahle? 6 ip, 3 unearned with 9Ks/1 walk last night. Why not?

  66. 1 game closer to 1st!

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About Jordan Barhorst

Jordan has been a lifelong Reds fan, attending games since before he can remember. When he's not watching, listening to, or writing about the Reds, he's designing websites, photographing weddings, and hanging out with his friends and family.

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2007 Reds, Game Thread

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