2017 Reds

Reds at Rays – June 21, 2017

Hope you slept quick because we have a 12:10 matinee coming up as the Reds finish their series versus the Rays. Today’s game sets up as the series rubber match after the Rays withstood a 2 out, 2 run  ninth inning rally by the Reds to win 6-5 Tuesday night. In case you missed it; or, if you just want to see a thing of beauty all over again, here is the opening blow of the Reds ninth inning rally:

Starting Pitchers

Righthander Tim Adleman makes the start for the Reds. Over the last month, Adleman has arguably been the Reds most reliable starter. In 5 starts, he is averaging slightly more than 6 innings per start and has posted an ERA of 2.25. Digging a little deeper though,  his FIP over the same period is 4.97; his xFIP is 5.01.

Why the great divergence between ERA and FIP for Adleman in the last month?  It is because the FIP formula doesn’t like the number of walks and home runs he has allowed in comparison to his strikeouts over the number of innings he has pitched. So, if a person trusts FIP, Adleman has been more lucky than truly good over the last month.

Erasmo Ramirez  will be on the mound for the Rays. Ramirez is a 27 year old righthander who has been in professional baseball for a decade. He first appeared in MLB during the 2012 season then bounced back and forth between the MLB and the minors until 2015 when he stuck with the Rays primarily as a starter. However in 2016 he was moved to bullpen, appearing in 64 games only one of which was a start. He began 2017 as a reliever but was moved back into the rotation about a month ago.

In the rotation through 6 games, Ramirez ERA is 7.06; but, his FIP is 4.59.  Per FIP, in the last month he is the flip side of the coin from Adleman, more unlucky than truly bad.

PITCHER (All 2017 Games) xFIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9
Tim Adleman 4.97 1.69 3.38 7.59
Erasmo Ramirez 4.16 1.33 1.83 6.83

Bullpens

The Reds “B team” did all the pen work last night and did it admirably. The front line guys should all be on deck today; and, with an off day following on Thursday, Bryan Price should feel no constraints in how he uses them.

The availability of closer Alex Colomé on a short turnaround may be an issue for the Rays since Colomé was extended to 23 pitches last night in the ninth inning. The other burning question? Will the Reds leave town without  seeing Jumbo Diaz on the mound opposing them.

Lineups

REDS

SP: Tim Adleman

RAYS

SP: Erasmo Ramirez

1. Billy Hamilton (CF)
2. Scooter Gennett (2B)
3. Joey Votto (1B)
4. Adam Duvall (LF)
5. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
6. Scott Schebler (RF)
7. Devin Mesoraco (C)
8. Jesse Winker (DH)
9. Jose Peraza (SS)
1. Mallex Smith (LF)
2. Corey Dickerson (DH)
3. Steven Souza Jr. (RF)
4. Logan Morrison (1B)
5. Trevor Plouffe (3B)
6. Daniel Robertson (SS)
7. Taylor Featherston (2B)
8. Peter Bourjos (CF)
9. Jesus Sucre (C)

Is it too early in the day to complain about Jesse Winker being dropped to 8th? On second thought, that is a pretty robust group batting in front of him except for the lead off spot.

Final Thoughts

From our RLN leader, Tuesday’s game in less than 140 characters

Here’s a late (early AM) story with clubhouse comments  about that below average start

Personally, I’ve taken to calling games like last night Slip Slidin’ Away games because the Paul Simon song of that name pops into my mind as the starter gets into deeper and deeper trouble until finally it is too late to escape.  The good news is the song says “You know the nearer your destination, the more you’re slip slidin’ away”  So, that “better eventually” Chad predicted has to be getting much closer with all the slip slidin’ away that’s been going on, right?

And finally this late breaking tidbit

Here is more about Castillo from Steve Mancuso

Go Reds. Start a new winning streak today!


Statistics, data, and background information from Fangraphs.com, MLB.com, and Baseball-Reference.com 

71 thoughts on “Reds at Rays – June 21, 2017

  1. Winker hitting in front of Peraza and Hamilton…ugh! Once again, at least Winker is in the lineup and getting some PA’s against major league pitchers.

    • I have a feeling Winker will bath 7th and 8th every game until he’s “established,” whatever that means… even if he’s carrying a .350 or so OBP, which is what I’d estimate him for right now as a rookie.

  2. I am so glad Bryan Price said this today about the importance of throwing strikes:

    “We sent Cody and Robert down to Triple-A to really focus on repeating their delivery,” Price said. “I think this isn’t so much a direct message to those guys, as it is really wanting them to settle in there and let them get on a really nice roll before (a recall) — it doesn’t mean if you throw two or three good ballgames and that means you’re ready to come back. I think we really want them to cement their deliveries, nail their deliveries and have a string of outings where they’re really on top of their game and they’re just way better than the league.”

    “You have to pitch ahead, throw it over the plate and let your defense work. If competing in the zone is a problem, you’re not ready.”

    http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2017/06/21/reds-luis-castillo-make-big-league-debut-friday/415566001/

    The big leagues is not the place to learn how to throw strikes.

  3. Let’s see their guy has a 7 ERA in his 6 starts so far which means us having no hits after 4 inning is what you would expect.I’m good with that.

    • Besides the bombs, Tampa getting away with some lucky hits. A bloop and infield single in back to back innings.

      Meanwhile the fastest man on the baseball field gets caught halfway between third and home when the SS has the ball 10 feet away

      • It would have been nice to see what Schebler could have done with the bases loaded. That’s Hamilton’s 3rd really damaging out on the bases within the last couple of weeks. The other two were getting caught stealing 3rd, in situations where he shouldn’t have been running, to kill rallies in close games.

        And why is Schebler batting so low in the order ?

  4. I agree with everything Price is saying but show me a rookie that can consistently do it.Nobody on this team does that.Aldeman has already walked 3 guys through 3+ innings and Garrett walked 4 in 4 innings last night.

    • Prior to today, Adleman’s walks per nine innings was 3.3, or about one every three innings. For the most part, Adleman throws strikes. If you have guys who are going to give up a lot of walks or a lot of batted balls, you’d rather go with the guy who gives up batted balls because at least the defense has a chance to catch them.

      Of course, we’d just like to have some pitchers who can consistently hold the opponents to less than four runs per nine innings — no matter how they do it.

  5. Its almost like he is saying he knows everybody walks people but you guys are worse so you have a different standard to work too.Well you won’t see them again.

    • I don’t see that they’re being held to a different standard at all. At the major league level they’ve had multiple opportunities and been terrible. Why not give Castillo a chance ?

      • I’m on board with giving Castillo a chance. Won’t likely happen but I sure would like to see it.

  6. Gives up a homer in to Schebler, so what do they do when the pitcher might be getting rattled? 6 pitches, 3 pop ups.

  7. Hahahahahahaha. This team getting ate up by this covered ballpark. Sorry but Duvall looked like a tee ball player going for that

    • Coach to players- “Don’t take your eye off the ball to find the fence when there is a fly ball”. Pretty simple tip

  8. Every pitcher we face pounds the zone because we can’t hit.Wait a minute we are what 5th or 6th in runs scored and the same in home runs.I sometimes think the only way we would walk is if we faced our own pitchers but then I am not sure.

    • An unstoppable force against an immovable object.

      Votto would have zero hits and ABs with 635 walks. The rest of the team would be a mix of HRs (Schebler, Suarez) and SOs leaders (Hamilton, Duvall, Peraza)

  9. Missed Kershaw and still go 0-6 vs LA. Missed Archer and prob blow this series. Missing Scherzer this weekend. They’ll score 5 in 3 innings when we’re down 7-1 but somehow that offensive spark never carries over to the next day?

  10. If Votto doesn’t swing, it’s a ball. He should be allowed to call his own zone. I love it when pitchers visibly disagree when they don’t get a call they want and Votto walks. Great AB

  11. We have battled back and probably will today but we are behind so much I just wonder sometimes if the other teams pitcher just says here hit it.That concerns me because I really don’t know how much that plays into us scoring so many runs and hitting homers but it has to play a part in it.

  12. Why not have Jumbo give up a HR to the first guy he faces…for old times sake???

  13. I get to see Schebler hit with the bases loaded after all. But it would have been nice to see him hit against Ramirez with the bases loaded, maybe the score would be 5-3 now. (Thanks a lot, Billy.)

    And, once again, why is Schebler batting so low in the order ?

  14. Were done on to Washington.Just wasn’t meant to be today.They have blooped and dribbled us to death.

  15. Well the glimmer of hope for a comeback was fun while it lasted. No tv feed for me in DC since Raleigh is their market. See y’all on the flip side.

  16. That was a rocket.Down 7-2 now so can we just forfeit and catch the plane.

  17. Peralta is wearing down…..basically his first time as a steady reliever. Maybe they should invent a 10 day DL injury for him or something?

  18. He inherited a mess and made it worse.It happens and will again but we know what our issues are and its walks and the starters not going past 4 or 5 innings.Just can’t continue to do that two out of every 3 games we play and expect us to pull it out.Offense defense and pen have no room for error when we are constantly behind.

  19. Throw out the Cards series and the Reds are 1 out from being 1-14….not that 2-13 isn’t embarrassing enough. I cannot believe they suck this badly because they have talent!

    • Correction….its worse

      Reds are 2-16 in their last 18 vs non-Card opponents!

      • But their competing!! Didn’t you hear/read that Bryan Price quote? Painful. My salvation is work has been really busy and I haven’t been able to follow as closely for the most part.

  20. Somebody needs to smack Price upside the head. Hamilton with a robust .599 OPS should be considered a late-inning defensive/pinch runner replacement at best and AAA candidate at worst.

    • Hamilton will be fine, there were RedlegNation podcasts earlier this year proclaiming Hamilton to be a candidate for NL MVP.

      When you have the opportunity to bat one of the worst hitters in baseball lead off, you just need to do it. Speed does not slump remember

      • The evidence is out there now for Billy! He can be dynamic but he’s just not durable and strong enough to be a decent hit and consistent performer at the big league level. He’s slumping now but he’s the type that will have a few hot weeks again and then get hurt for a month or 2. They need to reevaluate!!

  21. Duval’s OBP is .322 and Schebler’s is .333.Add in the power and good enough defense it tells me these guys are above average corner outfielders.

  22. Looks like he will get to hit 5 times again today.Love it when your worst hitter gets to do that on a daily basis.

  23. Not sure they have anyone that can play CF regularly. I don’t think Schebler can.

    • It wasn’t that long ago that most thought Suarez couldn’t play anywhere regularly! Scheb would be better then Dexter Fowler in CF and he’s played there for many years

      • I never thought he’d be a plus defender but he was very young and had shown decent ability at SS in the minors. This told me that there was at least a chance. Schebler can play out there for short stints or even a few games here and there. I wouldn’t want him out there every day though. I don’t think you’re right about him being better than Fowler. He’d probably be a little worse than Fowler and Fowler is getting older. A better comp would probably be Choo but with a weaker arm. On second thought, he might be better than Choo out there. That wasn’t pretty.

  24. Hernandez has been perfect in two innings.Probably will be sent down this weekend.No value in keeping a guy with nasty nasty stuff around.

  25. Billy without a hit in the series.If you believe as he goes we go then we better do something to get him right.

  26. Just don’t drink Jobu’s rum!
    It’s Very Bad to Steal Jobu’s Rum!

    Billy says “Bats, they are sick. I cannot hit, bats are afraid. I ask Jobu to come, take fear from bats.”

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