2017 Reds

Reds at Rays – June 20, 2017

With the 9 game losing streak now safely in their rearview mirror, the Reds look to build on Monday’s success in game 2 of this interleague series versus the Rays in Florida. Nobody is happier than Bryan Price that the losing streak is history.

Starting Pitchers

Lefthander Amir Garrett gets the starting call for the Reds. Garrett has struggled to regain his dazzling early season form after a trip to AAA for service time considerations to manage his innings count which was followed by a trip to the DL when he tweaked his hip upon returning to the Reds. However in his most recent start against the Padres, Garrett looked much like his earlier self on the mound. Hopefully he will bedazzle the Rays tonight.

The Rays send 29 year old righthander Alex Cobb to the mound in what will be his 101st MLB start. Cobb’s career has been one of  promise marred by injury.  In 2013, he logged 22 starts with a 3.36 FIP despite missing 2 months after being struck in the head by line drive while on the mound. He pitched a full season in 2014 (27 starts; 3.23 FIP) only to begin 2015 on the DL with forearm tendonitis which led to Tommy John surgery in early May of 2015. As will sound all too familiar to Reds fans, Cobb’s 2016 season was also essentially lost to rehab and recovery from the TJ surgery (5 MLB starts; 22 IP; 5.60 FIP).  Tonight will be Cobb’s 15th start of 2017.

PITCHER xFIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9
Amir Garrett 5.08 2.80 4.12 7.57
Alex Cobb 4.58 1.04 2.61 6.25

I didn’t realize just how out of kilter Garrett’s numbers had gotten until I populated this table. Obviously he has to get his BB rate and HR rate both substantially lower to be a successful MLB starting pitcher. 14 starts into 2017, is Cobb on the road back to his former self following TJ surgery or is this the pitcher he is now?

Bullpens

Monday night Michael Lorenzen pitched two innings; and, Raisel Iglesias pitched one. Both had also pitched an inning on Sunday. Thus the backend of the Reds pen may be short tonight.

As both Raisel Iglesias and Drew Storen warmed up in the Reds pen during the top of the 9th with the Reds already leading by 3 runs and threatening to add on, Steve Mancuso noted:

Things became even more curious when the Iglesias was brought on to pitch the bottom of the 9th after  the Reds had stretched their lead to 4 runs making it a nonsave situation.  Should we be wondering if Storen was experiencing some sort of physical issue and was shut down?

For the Rays, Jose Alvarado failed to retire a single batter while allowing the ultimately winning run. He was followed by Danny Farquhar who helped the Reds seal the deal by allowing 2 more runs officially charged to Alvarado along with 1 of his own in 2 innings of work. Unfortunately for the Reds, the rest of the Rays pen looks rested and ready for tonight.

Lineups

REDS

SP: Amir Garrett

RAYS

SP: Alex Cobb

1. Billy Hamilton (CF)
2. Scooter Gennett (2B)
3. Joey Votto (1B)
4. Adam Duvall (LF)
5. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
6. Scott Schebler (RF)
7. Devin Mesoraco (DH)
8. Tucker Barnhart (C)
9. Jose Peraza (SS)
1. Steven Souza Jr. (RF)
2. Corey Dickerson (LF)
3. Evan Longoria (3B)
4. Logan Morrison (DH)
5. Trevor Plouffe (1B)
6. Daniel Robertson (SS)
7. Peter Bourjos (CF)
8. Taylor Featherston (2B)
9. Jesus Sucre (C)

It is surprising that Jesse Winker is not starting tonight since Bryan Price had previously indicated Winker figured to start all 3 games versus the Rays. At least Mesoraco gets bumped up one spot from his typical #8 slot.

 

Final Thoughts

Here’s Homer Bailey’s Monday AAA rehab start in a nutshell:

For the record, the two runners left behind by Bailey did not score. The numbers in Doug’s tweet reflect Bailey’s final line.

Want more details with some thoughts from Homer?

 

Barring some physical issue between now and the weekend, Bailey appears on track to make his first MLB start of the season in Washington either Saturday or Sunday.  As Bailey returns, recall that Alex Cobb, tonight’s Rays starter underwent TJ surgery at virtually the same time as Bailey and has yet to post numbers approaching his former production. Hope for the best (eventually); but, understand Bailey’s best going forward may be different from his best prior to the surgery and  even that may be a while more in coming.

Is there a more misleading pitching statistic, especially for relievers, than wins/loses? Last night, Michael Lorenzen entered the game in the bottom of the 7th with 1 out, and a man on base. He surrendered a game tying home run to the first batter he faced then finished out the inning without further damage. When the Reds came back to retake the lead in the top of the 8th inning, Lorenzen became the winning pitcher of record despite having already been charged with a blown save for allowing the game tying home run.  There has to be a better way….

Go Reds! Make it 2 in a row in the good direction!


Stats, data, and biographical information  from Fangraphs.com, MLB.com,  and Wikipedia

 

 

 

 

73 thoughts on “Reds at Rays – June 20, 2017

  1. Tucker Barnhart hitting over Jesse Winker. Price really hates giving his prospects time to acclimate.

    • Meso had caught a lot in the last couple of weeks including a day game following a night. I’m wondering if he has a tweak or something barking a bit but is good to bat.

      • Well, we do want to keep Devin swinging, so the DH role is good. We have Turner if something happens to Tucker during the game. Worst case is Devin comes in to play.

        No Winker is a head-scratcher … give Duvall a night off or even Billy but get Winker some AB’s.

  2. No winker. I get tired of banging my head into the wall. If you’re not going to play him for the 3 games then don’t say it.

  3. No Winker…..??? Can someone explain to Price and DW how a rebuild works! You play new guys to see what they can do. If you win 75 instead of 73 with your regular crew they don’t hand out participation ribbons. We’ll see Winker pinch-hit a little more in September and maybe Mahle/Castillo can face the same AAAA guys in Sept. they could’ve seen with Louisville. Its means nothing and we learn nothing. We learn NOTHING because this isn’t rebuilding. You don’t put a 40 yr has been with the worst arm in mlb on a rebuilding team. Arroyo gets how many starts to prove that what everyone already knew but Reed/Stephenson get 1 start combined? Its beyond idiotic!

  4. Right on Indy it is beyond idiotic.Just make no sense at all.Tucker,Peraza and Billy back to back again after no hits last night so lets try that again.Winker go ahead and bring coffee and donuts cause you ain’t playing tonight.

  5. If Winker can’t play when there is a DH he isn’t going to when we play in our own league.You bring a guy up to play and he gets a big hit late to extend the lead and you set him the next day.

  6. I called them out and Tucker and Peraza get hits and we lead 1-0 sooooooo come on Billy and make me shut up too.

  7. That was a gift triple for Duval….about time one of those gifts goes our way.

  8. the roof plays a factor again as Peraza couldn’t coral the foul pop. Batter ends up walking and scoring

  9. Schebler’s throw home on the base hit (instead of 2nd) allows another runner to get to 2nd….of course he comes home to score

  10. Thanks not watching but almost 40 pitches that inning.Was he missing bad or just missing?He always seems to have one bad inning that goes south really quick.

  11. 3 gift runs so far! Walks plus Scooter should’ve had that one basehit. He got no jump on the ball and it was right next to his glove….maybe the speed of the ball on turf confused him but he should’ve had it. Peraza would’ve had it I believe! They also had Morrison down 1-2 and he had a terrible swing on a breaking ball so Garrett gives him a fastball for a 2 run single? I don’t get it? I know Garrett is young but his stuff is pretty ordinary so he can’t afford breakdowns like that. His ceiling is a 3.80s – 4.00 lefty version of Adleman imo. I thought he would have better stuff?

  12. Billy fails again….so brilliant to give your worst hitter the most atbats. I swear?????

  13. You knew he wasn’t going to drive in Peraza.He has no power to even lift a ball to the outfield and the infield is already in.

    • Dick williams reputation is on the line.
      Let’s see what he does.
      Joey Votto as a rookie would be sitting behing Scott hatteberg under this regime.

      • Actually he did sit when he came up. After a nice September in 2007 he started as backup to Hattebutg in 2008.

  14. I’m giving up on Billy. He’s not getting any better and he’ll eventually lose a step which ends everything he brings to the table.

  15. Billy is what he is and won’t get any better.To expect him to be anything else offensively is just foolish.

  16. Another one bites the dust. We maxed out at 1 in a row…lol

    Reed>Garrett on the shuttle to Lville. 7 era for Amir isn’t cutting it & Reed hasn’t had a fair shot!

    • I think Reed has had a fair shot, and he will get another. It is time to option Garrett for a while. He is not improving right now.

      regardless of why you think Garrett was sent down earlier, he would have been going down eventually as his stuff right now is just not good enough to put away hitters at the ML level and too much plate when he is getting hit hard.

      He is right now getting the Reed 2016 treatment.

      Next man up and let Garrett spend some time in AAA.

      Welcome to learning how to pitch at the ML level

      • Reed had 1 start? Granted his control is bad too but he’s got much better stuff then Garrett. I tell you if Castillo doesn’t pan out then they’re really going to regret dealing Straily. The guy can throw 90 mph effortlessly every 5 days and mix speeds and miss bats plus he’s still in his 20s and cheap.

  17. Worst starting pitching I’ve ever seen. Between Arroyo, Garrett, Bonilla and Wojo….has to be atleast 6.50 combined era. Am I missing any scrubs….oh Rookie as well!

  18. He’s done for this game.He hasn’t the velocity to say here hit it down 2-0 and 3-1.

  19. That’s 12 starts for him so because we threw away almost 3 months we may have to cut him of and try Reed or Stephensen or Romano.Got to speed this sorting up a tad.

  20. Just to be clear I don’t think 12 starts tell you much.Just like last year when Reed got 11 and Stephensen got 8.I would prefer he start every 5th day along with the other two for the rest of the year but we know that won’t happen.

    • I agree for the most part but confidence is a big part of making it as a youngster. To me about a 5.50 era is the cutoff. If you’re at 7 and walking a guy an inning and massive amounts of HRs….you’re not ready

  21. You always see their pitcher settle down too when our starter falls apart and gives them a nice lead. Depressing but so predictable

  22. Tonight’s Fun Fact…..when leading off in the 1st inning, Billy Hamilton’s OBP is .371. He has 17 SB and has scored 17 first inning runs. The Reds are 9th YTD in 1st inning runs….last year they were 3rd. However, they’re actually averaging more 1st inning runs this year than last.

    • Thats interesting? They score first constantly and lose….thats usually like a 70% or more win on average although I’m just guessing.

      What do we do Chuck with this starting pitching? We have literally nothing and nobody we can count on. Shoot for 2019 and plan on Hunter Greene coming up like Doc Gooden at 19 and whiffing half the league!

    • So what you are not saying is that his OBP on his other 3 at bats is incredibly awful.

      • Pardon this awful, awful phrase…..but that is a fact, Jack.

        I’m still looking at the numbers, but most players get better the more times they face a pitcher in a game……but, he seems to get worse. His OBP jumps again in the 7th….but most teams bring in a “7th inning guy” so he’s facing a new pitcher. He’s actually quite good when leading off an inning…..almost any inning…..and Carrot Top as Hamlet bad when he isn’t.

        • Chuck I don’t have access to where you get the stats. I’m quite curious on his OBP of 2nd ,third, fourth at bat. Billy is a hard player to figure out. Is he helping or not? This is why I wouldn’t mind schebler in center for about 10 games to see what he has. He might be good or he might be a nightmare. But like you say it’s a difference between winning 73 or 75.

  23. I think its a combination of how our hitters react as well.We get shell shocked and start swinging even more then normal.That was an 11 pitch inning and Suarez saw 7 of them

    • You can’t be shell shocked when it happens 4-5x a week. Its more like an internal voice that says “#*$* it….here we go again”

      • “Winning is a habit. Unfortunately, so is losing” Ole Vince from Green Bay

  24. I agree Indy but I get so caught up with giving guys a chance like we did Disco and Finny.Yes I have mentioned that several times but its true.I also fear we are going to give up on a guy and somebody else is willing to throw them out there for 25 starts and they turn it around.

    • I don’t think we should release anyone….maybe trade our problem for their pitcher and hope everyone involved just needed a change of scenery. Thats what I was thinking about with Gausman.

  25. Both teams seem to want to get this one over in a hurry.Works for me.I’m gone.

  26. Most fans on this site are always screaming to give young pitchers a chance. Bring them to the manjors and let them pitch. E.g. Reed, Stephenson. Garrett is a young pitcher rated above these two. He gets banged around like Reed and Stephenson did last year and this year and they are calling for Garrett to be sent to Louisville. Which way do u want it? How about we let Garrett keep pitching in the majors. There is nothing to lose. Patience. This is a bad baseball team. The Reds should get a nice high draft pick next year which will help rebuilding. Losing is never fun.

    • Totally agree. Garrett needs to learn how to work through that one inning he has. I have no problem with him staying in the rotation. I think Reed needs to come up and pitch as well. Stephenson as well once he stops walking so many. Walks kill.

    • Its confidence….you see it with QBs in the NFL. David Carr was a 1st rounder but got hit so hard & so often that he was gunshy in the pocket and never developed.
      Do you really want to see Garrett vs the Nationals this weekend? Like I said before….5.50 is like the cutoff to me. Lorenzen got absolutely hammered in 2015….had a 5.40 era. 7 and above is painful.

      Lets see what Bonilla does? He actually reminds me of Volquez as far as his delivery. He hides the ball well and has a nice change. Is it that hard to go 5 ip with 3 earned (5.40 era)?

    • Garrett is different from Reed and Stephenson in that his ceiling is lower. I’m fine with giving Garrett/Davis more chances but not at the expense of Reed and Stephenson. With Finnegan and Bailey coming, back it’s going to be that much harder to find starts for Reed and Stephenson with Garrett in the rotation. Garrett could still be a #3 or #4 but those guys are a lot easier to find than a #1 or #2. The priority should have been seeing if Reed and Stephenson can eventually develop into TOR guys rather than seeing if Garrett/Davis can be MOR guys.

  27. Cubs picked up Mike Montgomery from Seattle last year. A loogy/spot starter type of guy. 51 innings so far with a 2.28 era. Theo is kind of good! Dick Williams? Not so sure?

    • Apples to Oranges, Indy.

      After 3 years of tanking Theo also had a lot of organizational surplus to enable him to make such a deal. Also, when you have virtually unlimited resources you can trade prospects more easily since all you need to do is raise the priice of beer a nickel and you can sign a free agent if needed.

      Epstein is great…..HOF quality. But he’s been the GM for 2 teams that have virtually no financial constraints. It would be interesting to see what he would do with the Reds.

      • Well of course but I doubt they paid much for Montgomery. I haven’t looked but I think it was headsup for a Schwarber type slugger they had at AAA….can’t recall the name. I think we have a borderline top 10 system….atleast we should with all the nonstop uninterrupted losing.

  28. Fun Fact 2: Billy Hamilton’s OBP vs the same pitcher in a game
    1st at bat: .371
    2nd at bat: .274
    3rd at bat: .263

    Joey Votto:
    1st AB: .391
    2nd AB: .478
    3rd AB: .410

    9 of Votto’s 19 HR’s have occurred in the 1st or 7th…..Hamilton’s OBP in those 2 innings:
    .371 and .424

    • I’d like to see them get a 10 day DL stint to get fully healthy, He has been knicked up over the last month ( who hasn’t right?) But Billy, more than anybody else, needs to be at or close to 100%

      When he goes, the Reds go.

      • Tend to agree that a 10-day stint would give him a much needed break. Of course, Winker in RF and Schebler in CF would have done that as well.

          • True. But the 10-day is exactly why they created the beast. Very short-term option for guys that were banged up.

    • Billy has no fun facts….just facts.

      Billy gets to play by different rules than everyone else.
      Why is that? He can;t hit.

      Billy is average to below in batting average….but that does not matter.
      Billy is immune from OBP even though he hits leadoff and is below .300. No team does that except Bob Castellini’s team. I thought Bob Castellini wanted to win????
      Everyone accepts Billy’s ISO is below any 12u Little leaguer…stop picking on Billy!!! Facts don’t matter. Right Bob?

      He cant hit for average or get on base or hit for power. He strikes out all the time and every game. But he runs fast and catches balls no one else can once every 2 weeks. Right Bob?

      He has a bobble head day in 2 weeks. Thanks Phil. That’s why I root for the Reds.
      I planned on going to the game for Fathers day,…then decided $150 to watch Arroyo wasn’t worth it.
      Thanks Bob. No one is buying what you are selling.

      • Cubs finished last and lost 95 games for 4 years. They had not a World Series for 108 years. Reds are 3 years away from being in the plsoffs 3 out of 4 years and we have fans jumping off the Brent-Spence bridge. Paul Daugherty thinks Billy Hamilton is under rated. He thinks he makes the Reds go.
        Bob Castellini wants the Reds to win just as much as the most loyal die hard Reds fan. 4 weeks ago Hamilton was electric and he had turned the corner in the eyes of many. In my opinion it was a temporary mirage. He still needs to play in this rebuilding season to determine if he should be a key part of the Reds future.

  29. Hernandez better be careful. If he pitches to well, they might send him down again

  30. Starters suck….bullpen holds them and we rally but fall short. Rinse and repeat

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