2017 Reds

The Rotation in One Month

The Reds appear to have a contending offense, defense, and bullpen, and yet, they remain under .500. Their struggles can be easily traced to an underwhelming starting rotation. Reds pitchers who have started more than one game are as follows:

  • Bronson Arroyo
  • Scott Feldman
  • Tim Adelman
  • Asher Wojciechowski
  • Rookie Davis
  • Lisalverto Bonilla
  • Amir Garrett

Only one of those guys, Garrett, likely has a long-term future in the rotation; Davis has an outside chance as well. I don’t need to tell you that Reds starters have been bad but just to put some numbers to it, they have the worst ERA, FIP, xFIP, and WAR in all of baseball.

But hope has sprung forth from the depths of pitching despair as Homer Bailey and Brandon Finnegan appear on their way back by the end of the month. The Reds also sent Cody Reed and Robert Stephenson to AAA to stretch them out, and Sal Romano has returned from the disabled list for Louisville Bats. Young talent is on the way, and it seems likely that we will see some big changes in the rotation in the next month.

Obviously, Finnegan and Bailey will start once they are ready, but who else should fill out the rotation? The Reds certainly have plenty of candidates, which means there will be varying opinions. Those options include the following (besides Finnegan and Bailey):

  • Scott Feldman
  • Tim Adelman
  • Amir Garrett
  • Robert Stephenson
  • Cody Reed
  • Sal Romano
  • Michael Lorenzen

With three spots available, let’s look at the case for each candidate.

Scott Feldman

You are who we thought you were! Which isn’t bad nor great. It’s quite Feldman. Feldman remains an adequate Major League pitcher who could start at the back end of a rotation or fill up some bullpen innings.

Right now, he has a 4.29 ERA and 4.52 SIERA. For those unfamiliar with SIERA, it’s a strong indicator of future ERA (think FIP or xFIP). He’s essentially an adequate innings filler who doesn’t fill that many innings. I don’t buy that he will have much in terms of trade value come the deadline, but he’s been the best of what the Reds have thrown out there so far. He will eat some innings and will keep the Reds in the game most days. If that’s enough to keep him in the rotation, the Reds may be concerned about innings limits for their young pitchers.

 

Tim Adleman

Tim Adleman is another guy that reeks of adequacy. In fact, he’s very Feldmany with a 4.34 ERA and 4.47 SIERA. He could probably succeed as a reliever with his deceptive delivery and stuff that plays up in short stints, but his ability to not embarrass himself has led to double-digit starts this season. Adleman has league average strikeout and walk rates for a starter, which impressed me. Likely his biggest problem has been the homerun ball. He’s given up ten homers in ten starts and let up another in his relief appearance. Adleman has a really high fly ball percentage, so the homers will likely continue, especially at Great American Ball Park.

He’s younger (29) than Feldman but still at an age where he is unlikely to get that much better. The Reds could rely on him to eat some more innings, and maybe he finds a way to limit the home run ball. But it’s hard to imagine Adleman will stand in the way of real prospects when the team deems them ready.

Amir Garrett

Garrett is an extremely athletic lefty that impressed initially. In early May, the Reds sent him down to AAA to manage his innings and do the service time thing. He has struggled ever since and went on the DL at one point for hip inflammation. The injury probably affected his performance, and I still wonder if he’s 100 percent healthy.

Even so, Garrett’s ugly ERA (7.40), and troubling walk rate (10.6%) suggest he has lots to work on. He has also allowed 16 home runs. His fastball command and execution has largely been the problem as opponents are slugging .630 against the pitch.

Still, Garrett showed enough promise early in the season that the Reds might let him ride out the struggles and adjust at the Major League level. However, he could refine some things in AAA, and the Reds would get an extra year out of him with just a few service days saved. His next few starts will be extremely important in terms of staying in the rotation as others get healthy.

Robert Stephenson

Stephenson was shuttled back to Louisville so he could stretch out to start again. Dick Williams recently mentioned that the Reds had wanted to break Stephenson of some preparation habits by placing him in the bullpen to begin the season. As many have noted, he has great stuff, but the command continues to elude him.

For the Reds, he had an unsightly 13.2% BB%, and it has continued at Louisville, though he has yet to give up a run in 9 innings. Stephenson will strike plenty of people out, but the poor command has mitigated the benefits. In the Majors this season, opposing hitters obliterated his fastball, hitting .407 and slugging .797 against it. Ouch.

With other young starters making their way up through the minors, Stephenson needs to show improvement soon, and the Reds need to figure out whether he fits into the rotation or bullpen long term.

Cody Reed

Reed got shelled by the Cubs in his only start this season. He was also inconsistent as a reliever and struggled mightily with command. He is apparently working on new mechanics to stop tipping pitches, which may have led to the wildness. His changeup and slider actually fared really well against big leaguers, but like the other young pitchers on this list, his fastball got shelled (.889 slugging against).

In AAA, he continues to walk too many people (12.7%), but the results are much better. He has a 2.56 ERA in 38.2 innings recently pitched an 8-inning gem where he walked only one batter and let up two hits. If that performance is a sign that the new mechanics are sinking in, watch out. Reed has some serious potential with a mid-90s fastball and nasty slider. His next few starts in AAA will be telling and success will likely lead to a call up sooner than later.

Sal Romano

Romano does something that several of the other young pitchers struggle to do: throws strikes. He doesn’t walk many people and sits 94-96 with his fastball. He had one nervy start for the Reds early in the season and went on the DL soon after (he’s back now). In six starts at AAA, Romano has a 1.69 ERA while walking only 5.4% of batters.

Doug Gray thinks very highly of Romano and his stuff. The biggest question is whether he is ready to challenge MLB hitters; Michael Lorenzen, Homer Bailey, Cody Reed, and Rookie Davis were all rushed to the Majors with limited AAA experience, and it backfired. Maybe Romano doesn’t need much AAA development time. However, that would be the exception to the rule.

Whenever he becomes a regular, his ability to limit walks and keep the ball out of the air could play well at GABP.

Michael Lorenzen

Yes, I’m tired of this conversation as well, but it makes too much sense not to at least consider it. To recap, Lorenzen was rushed to the Majors a year and a half after being a full-time centerfielder in college. He spent exactly one season in the minors as a full-time starter. He struggled mightily in 2015; the biggest causes being a straight fastball and suspect command. Batters hit .302 and slugged .516 against that fastball.

To address the fastball issue, Lorenzen learned a hard sinker and biting cutter in the off season. Those are now the pitches he uses most often; two pitches he NEVER threw as a starter. His slider, which produced only 17 strikeouts in 113 innings in 2015, has struck out 15 batters in only 34.1 innings in 2017.

One misplaced narrative is that Lorenzen immediately became better out of the pen. Though a small sample covering only 7.2 innings, he was actually worse in some ways out of the bullpen in 2015 than as a starter. As a reliever, he let up a higher percentage of line drives, induced a lower percentage of groundballs, and struck out the exact same percentage of batters as when he was a starter. It’s seems quite possible that he was just a struggling young pitcher that needed a fastball with more movement and improved secondary pitches.

But questions remain. Can Lorenzen consistently get hitters out at 94-96 instead of 96-98? Should his previous elbow issue concern the Reds? They have consistently said they have no concerns about his health as a starter, but the risk is still there. The biggest one for me is whether his command can hold up over longer outings. We’ve seen some lapse in command at time this season, and yet, he’s also dominated in some three inning appearances.

Conclusion

We still have lots of things to learn over the next month. Will Reed continue to show improvement? Will Romano dominate AAA as teams see him a second time? Can Stephenson show some semblance of command? Is Garrett healthy and if so, will he bounce back to early season form? We will get more data to answer those questions as June rolls into July.

But right now, I’d like to see the following rotation three weeks to one month from now:

  1. Homer Bailey
  2. Brandon Finnegan
  3. Michael Lorenzen
  4. Amir Garrett
  5. Cody Reed

It’s time to see whether Lorenzen’s new repertoire can hold up over 6-8 innings. He might have the best pure stuff of any of these guys, and the Reds can find another multiple-inning reliever (Rookie Davis?). As a top prospect who had early success, Garrett gets the benefit of the doubt unless he isn’t healthy. In that case, I give Stephenson a chance.

Reed has the stuff and looks better with each AAA start. His command was solid before this season, so I’m betting the new mechanics led to some of those issues, and he will quickly return to the strike thrower he was in the minors.

I’m a big Romano fan, and yet, I also think he needs 15-20 AAA starts before the Reds give him an extended look. He pitched poorly in the first half of 2016 in AA before turning it on big time.  Half a season of success above A ball isn’t enough, and the Reds should resist rushing him to the Majors too early.

I move Adleman and Feldman to the bullpen where their stuff can play up a little, and they don’t need to face a lineup more than once. I offer Arroyo a paid mentoring/coaching position for the rest of the season.

The Reds could certainly construct the staff a different way that makes sense. I’d understand if Feldman retained a spot for some stability, even if that stability is steeped in mediocrity. While I disagree with it, maybe they do want to give Romano a look soon.

Even so, I think the best construction as of now is the one I’ve laid out. In fact, that rotation could make things pretty interesting if the Reds can remain around .500 for a few more weeks. Regardless of what they do, the rotation should look a lot better in July than it has all season.

 

 

45 thoughts on “The Rotation in One Month

  1. I agree 100% with your future 5.
    I do think Feldman will be traded in 6 weeks….won’t get much at all…but someone will want a spot #5 starter or temporary depth for the stretch run if a starter misses a few turns ..perhaps the reds could get an AA Peralta equivalent for him.
    I like Adleman has a long man…who can come in the 3rd inning and give you 4-5 innings if Garrett or Reed are laboring in the 3rd or 4 th inning.

  2. I also agree 100% with your starting 5.Won’t happen because its the right thing to do but we can hope.

  3. Interesting data about hitters teeing off on fastballs vs. multiple young pitchers. It reinforces what my eyes have been telling me—-that the pitch sequencing, specifically as it stems from Price’s dogma of ‘establishing the fastball’, has done more harm than good with the young guys mentioned above. We know each of them has offspeed offerings that are plus and the data backs it up. Without question it has harmed the team’s chances to win individual games. So many times we’ve seen that the pitch sequencing doesn’t flow from that pitcher’s strengths and what he has working that day. It’s been been particularly damaging to Stephenson.

    The major leagues isn’t the place to work on fastball command, it’s about getting outs any way possible.

    My rotation on July 1:
    Homer
    Finnegan
    Garrett
    Stephenson
    Romano

    I’d have Lorenzen in there, but that would just be yelling at clouds. Reed looks more like Randy Myers bullpen piece. If any of these guys faceplants, I’m looking at Mahle and Castillo in September.

    • It seems to me that Stephenson’s problem is an inability to consistently control any of his pitches, not just his fastball. Arroyo, who is mostly ineffective now but who knows a good deal more about pitching than any of us, has said that establishing his fastball is critical to the success of his breaking stuff.

      • At AA Pensacola, Stephenson never knew where the ball was going to go when it left his hand. Control is his problem. You are right.

    • Part of “establishing the fastball” is locating the fastball. That’s where these young guys have been falling short. I don’t think it’s Price’s philosophy that’s causing the fastballs to be ripped. The best pitch in baseball at any level is still a well-located fastball.

  4. Further caution about Reed is probably in order. He followed up on the 8 inning gem by walking 5 in 5 innings Wednesday night. His BB per 9 innings rate is now at 5.36 (13.8%). His K to BB rate is (predictably given the BB’s) down to 1.62, his WHIP is 1.49.

    The biggest difference I see is that the ball is staying in the park for him (0.41 HR per 9 innings) at AAA.

    I doubt his results would be so lucky back in MLB with the continuing high walk rate and past propensity to give up home runs at that level.

    • I am encouraged with Reed. He’s missing bats and not giving up runs or many guys or home runs…..yes…he walked 5 but if he simply wins 2 of those…it’s a great outing….same with Garrett….one daggon bad pitch and a great outing gets lost in the loss.
      For that matter…I thought lorenzen got squeezed too.
      That said..I’m not rushing Reed…let him take the ball another 5-7 starts in AAA and build upon what he’s doing.

      • In part, I’m playing devil’s advocate here because it seems to me many folks are inclined to find reasons to believe Reed will be OK ahead of him actually demonstrating he is getting there.

        I still think there is a need to keep both feet firmly on the ground where Reed is concerned. Maybe he is turning a corner to the good; maybe he hasn’t just yet.

        He can’t walk people at the rate he is now in AAA at the MLB level and succeed; and, it is not unreasonable to believe that whatever his walk rate is at AAA, it will be at least the same or even higher in MLB. Also, we won’t know if he can miss bats at MLB until we see him doing it consistently at the MLB level. However he is going to have to miss a lot of bats to stay out of trouble at MLB with a 13% walk rate.

        • Reed doesn’t really have a history of control issues in the minors. I am more inclined to see him making a positive contribution because of that track record. He could have been tipping his pitches his whole time in the minors and it was never picked up. When he got to MLB and there was video from several angles, opponents picked up the tip and he got shelled. The Reds have tried to correct some things with him to get him to stop tipping and I think that’s what has caused the control issues. I think he’ll work through them.

          Now, there are a couple things with Reed to consider that do point to him having a chance to not be an effective MLB starter aside from the command. The two main ones are his release and how well RH hitters apparently see the ball out of his hand and also the lack of depth on this slider, which makes it harder for him to bury it on the back foot of RH hitters. Even if he ends up not being a good SP, I think he will have some value in the pen though. His stuff is still above average and I think the command will come back.

  5. Are the Reds in contact with Jake Peavy as a rumor suggests??? Anybody heard?
    Peavy is 36 years old, but not an over-the-hill starting pitcher. He doesn’t issue many BB”s or HR’s. Good sink on his fastball and gets lots of ground ball outs. Seems to be very suitable for GABP. He gets a lot of movement on his fastball. He is still an effective pitcher and could be a good role model for the younger pitchers.
    One other thing is he lives about 75 miles from Pensacola in Alabama. He could pitch there a few times until he is ready to join up with the Reds.
    Trade Feldman and move Arroyo to the pen until he shows he can’t pitch 1 inning any more. One last thing about Peavy, he also plays guitar. He and Arroyo after hours in the clubhouse.

    • Depends on if they want another veteran placeholder. I’d much rather the Reds go with youth. I don’t see Lorenzen starting this year though as the Reds would need to stretch him out to do so.

    • According to Padres Twitter, Peavy would come back only to play for a contender. The Padres have the money and interest to have a reunion, but allegedly, he turned them down.

  6. I am a firm believer in learning to pitch at the big league level.Rarely does what you do in the minors transfer to the big leagues.Reed dominated at AAA and Garrett dominated at AA and have struggled in the big leagues.The only way to get better is to pitch in the big leagues.As a front office or a manager you are looking for improvement to build on from these guys.It doesn’t have to be this start or that start it could be did they limit the damage in a particular inning or like Amir getting the next 3 hitter in order with 2’ks after the tieing homer.Finnegan after 40 starts still struggles with walks.Sounds like guys we know.However he has learned other things and another pitch which helped him in the second half last year after just an awful first half.Guys have to be given plenty of rope and plenty of starts and they will fail sometimes..Bet you Amir learned more during the games he got hammered then he did when he struck out 12.Its a process with young starting pitching and you have to let it happen.

  7. Has anyone asked the Reds’ management why they seem so adamant that Lorenzen stay in the bull pen. Sorry if I missed the answer before. Thanks.

    • The best answer I’ve heard was during Dick Williams’ interview with Chad on our Redleg Nation podcast. He essentially said that Lorenzen’s stuff played in the bullpen, and he got better results. Everybody’s stuff plays up in the bullpen, so he must mean they aren’t convinced he can get people out in the mid 90s as opposed to a couple ticks faster out of the pen.

      It’s confusing because as I wrote, they haven’t seen him start with his sinker or cutter. I guess they don’t think his stuff translates to starting.

      • Lorenzen is now almost a full year healthy and to the reds credit they have managed his innings and rehab well. I think he would be a great starter with his command and pitch repertoire and poise. He’s a guy I would trust with the ball on the road in the playoffs.

        I don’t think Price will be back as DW wants the next era of winning to coincide with his choice as manager.
        Lorenzen could easily throw 15 innings in the AFL and come into ST in 2018 as a starter.

        • In in interview I saw in April, Price said Lorenzen was staying in the bullpen this year but he would likely get an opportunity to start in the future. That’s my interpretation, not his exact words. He did say that Lorenzen would get an opportunity to start and it wouldn’t be this year. For what it’s worth. If Price isn’t here next year, which seems at least 50/50, who knows what the next manager will want to do with him.

    • Romano, Mahle, and Castillo would be ok. Rookie should be in the mix too. Adleman and Wojo only if everyone else is bombing consistently or hurt. They desperately need info for next year! Cozart will be gone and probably Duvall or Schebler too so they can’t wait til Joey is 38 to make a move!

      • Mahle and Castillo haven’t pitched an inning in AAA yet, so I hope they don’t pitch for the Reds in any extensive fashion starting next month. Davis has barely pitched in AAA and not well, so pass for me. Romano would be okay, but I’d prefer they let the league adjust to him in AAA and see how he handles it before using any more service time.

        • July…maybe not? I guess I didn’t see the time frame being discussed but hopefully they’ll get some run before this season is over? Your 5 makes perfect sense….just exchanging Lorenzen for Adleman since that’s their call for now.

          1.Homer Bailey
          2.Brandon Finnegan
          3.Michael Lorenzen/Adleman
          4.Amir Garrett
          5.Cody Reed

          • I could see that with Adleman instead of Lorenzen as you say. That seems like a very real possibility for the rotation in July.

  8. I got this from the brilliant baseball mind of Thom Brennaman but I’ll parrot it anyway. Why couldn’t Wandy Peralta become a very good starter? You put your superior arms in the pen because they’re such max effort guys that they can’t pace themselves or they can only master 2 pitches. Which category does he fall in? He can hit 97 with the fastball and has a great changeup plus his breaking stuff neuters lefties (.146 this year). Why not?

  9. All the Reds have to do is take Feldman &
    Adleman out of this rotation (no matter which 2 of the Reds current prospects at AAA you replace them with) & this team will eclipse the loss totals for 2015 & 2016 seasons.

  10. I can see it now…”It’s quite Feldman” & “He’s very Feldmany” are gonna become part of the new American vernacular to describe adequateness, lol!

  11. In a month, I’d like to see a rotation

    Bailey
    Finnegan
    Feldman/Adleman
    Reed
    Stephenson

    Romano, Lorenzen and maybe Garrett would be next in line for me.

  12. With Houston signing Elias Rodriguez (posted a couple hour ago), I guess the Reds are done signing prominent International prospects. Check back in about ………731 days.

  13. Why haven’t the Reds been working on a cutter or sinker with Stephenson and Reed to get hitters off the 4 seamer? If it worked well for Lorenzen, apply that to other young pitchers with a similar problem? However, Reed’s issues are more mechanical than the pitch itself it sounds like.

  14. Stephenson had a good but rain shortened start tonight (Thursday). 4IP; 1 run(earned); 1 hit; 2BB; 3K; 0HR. The strongest point was that he completed the 4 innings on just 51 pitches (31 strikes). It would be great to see more work like this from him.

  15. It’s the same story over and over for the last three years or so, the next “great” rotation is on their way, but there’s always an injury or a step back. The crude reality is that the proved guys are injured/rehabilitating and the unproved ones are unable to crack a major league line-up. Good luck.

  16. Bailey
    Finnegan
    Garrett
    Stephenson
    Reed.

    Let’s see what we have got.

    Romano and Davis to follow.

  17. I am sick of hearing about Stephenson he has more chances than all the other young arms combined. He has electric stuff but it is obvious he has the proverbial 10 cent head. He has had flashes that make me say wow but a regular diet of him makes me question if he will ever be a major league pitcher never mind a number 1 starter. I would give Romano a chance before bringing back Stephenson

    • See, I don’t think Stephenson’s issue is a 10-cent head. I used to think that until the Jim Day piece in spring training when he talked to Davis, Garrett, and Stephenson. The guy was much more meticulous than the other two. If anything, he might be trying to think too much. I’m not sure what Stephenson’s issues are but I don’t think I’d describe him as that stereotypical ‘million dollar arm with a ten cent head’ guy.

      • You know who I’d really like to talk to, are the catchers who have caught him. See what they think the deal is… Off the record.

    • Stephenson experience a drop in his FB velocity as he was promoted through the minor league system. This drop in velocity was parallel to his increased walk rate as he progressed through the minor league system.

      From the Old cossack’s layman perspective, Stephenson’s issue in physical, not mental. He lacks control. He is simply not able to spot his pitches. This may not be a correctable issue and may represent a fatal flaw as a major league pitcher, starter or reliever. What I do know, is that there is not difference in spotting pitches in the minors or majors, the ball needs to go where you intend to throw it, period. If it doesn’t, the pitcher will not have success at the major league level, no matter how hard or soft he throws.

      Stephenson does not need to pitch at the major league level until he can demonstrate control of his pitches at the AAA level. This means pitching to locations, not just getting minor league hitters out. He must be able to locate pitches inside and outside for strikes and up and down for strikes in the stike zone. If he can’t, then Stephenson will continue to experience very high walk rates and pitches grooved in the hitting zone that will get crushed at the major league level.

      i hope Stephenson can pull it together and get the control he needs to be successful. If he can, he can be VERY successful at the major league level as a starter, but if not, there’s no role for him at the major league level.

  18. Great point! But Stephenson isn’t alone. I watched Garrett throw vs. Padres and he has the same issue as Stephenson and Reed. Although Garrett had decent results, he still wasn’t hitting the mit. I agree that if any of our young pitchers have aspirations of being a consistent Major League starter they have to be able to hit their spots.

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