2017 Reds / Big League Ready

Second Verse, Same as the First

Come back with me, if you will, to a moment in the not-so-distant past. The Reds had a couple of hotshot starters in Louisville and a few more in Pensacola. We were waiting to see who would make the leap to the big leagues and who wouldn’t quite cut it. I know, I know it’s hard to imagine now. Oh, wait, that’s right. We’re exactly back where we were.

There have been some bumps along the way, but right now, there are at least six pitchers in the minors who we should think of as potential fixtures in the rotation in the coming years.

  1. Tyler Mahle – I’m giving Mahle top-billing because he hasn’t bumped his head yet. I haven’t see him pitch in person, but given that a promotion to Louisville can’t be far off, I don’t imagine it will be much longer. His double-A numbers are sparkling (1.54 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9). He looks like a front line starter so far. Fingers crossed, everyone.
  2. Cody Reed – I’m still ranking Reed highly. He has a 2.56 ERA in Louisville and seems to be getting his head straightened out. He’ll get another shot soon. Probably before the end of the season. He has the stuff and people generally speak well of his willingness to work and try to improve.
  3. Sal Romano – Romano is just coming back from a shoulder injury. He’s had one good start in Louisville and one bad start since coming back. He’s still only 23 and the future prognosis is good. The most important thing is that there don’t seem to be any lasting effects from the injury right now. A few more solid starts and he might find himself with another shot.
  4. Luis Castillo – He’s a little old for double-A (24), but has pitched his way into the conversation. He’ll probably get promoted to Louisville around the same time as Mahle.
  5. Rookie Davis – I want to rank Davis higher. He’s smart and coachable and has good stuff. But he’s also dealing with injuries for the second year in a row, so we must exercise extreme caution. If he gets past the injuries, I think he’ll become at least a serviceable MLB starter. Probably 3-4 type.
  6. Robert Stephenson – I doubt anyone in the organization has seen his stock drop so precipitously. He’s in Louisville now. Having the same problems he’s always had. He started his return to the minor with 8.2 no-hit innings over two starts, during which he also walked approximately 7,000 batters while throwing eleventy billion pitches. Until he can control his pitch count and cut down on walks, he has to be viewed as having marginal potential at best.

There you go. I don’t mean to keep focusing on the pitching in these columns, but there’s been so much turmoil that I need to write it up periodically just to remind myself what’s going on. I don’t know who’s going to be in the rotation next season. Or at the end of this season. Or next month. Or, frankly, next week. I just know that it’s probably going to be different from how it is right now and it can’t get worse than it’s already been. We must, Reds fans, surely be on the way up.

15 thoughts on “Second Verse, Same as the First

  1. Bob Steve’s seeming inability to consistently throw them in the zone is most troubling. Aside from a few specific players (some on our Reds roster), guys in The Show are pretty patient and will figure out that you can’t throw a strike.

    I like the thoughts on the others. There is hope brewing in the system.

    • Bobsteve was able to throw a strike to Troy Tulowitzki with the bases loaded against Toronto! Gotta find the bright side – right?!
      For some young hurlers, learning can be painful – let’s hope Bobsteve can figure some things out down in Louisville. There’s a mile of difference between a thrower and a pitcher!

  2. Bob Steve to me seems like a prime candidate for a “change of scenery” trade. There has to be other organizations who like his raw talent and feel they can help him to maximize it.

    I wonder what sort of return the Reds could get by packaging Stephenson with Cozart?

    • Not much.

      Stephenson’s value is minimal and Cozart is a 3 month rental with a history of injury, an absurdly high BABIP and currently playing for a rebuilding team that can’t afford him long term and needs to trade him…..no leverage for the Red Legs. Similar return to Jay Bruce…..maybe less since Bruce had an extra year under contract…..unless of course, Addison Russel or Sterling Castro break their legs the night before the trade deadline.

      Stephenson isn’t worth trading at this point. There’s at least a 50% chance he becomes a decent pitcher. He would sell for 10% of his intrinsic value.

  3. The 1st crop of young sp prospects has been harvested. 2 of the most promising ended up in the bullpen(Lorenzen & Iglesias). Of the rest only 3- DeSclafani, Finnegan, & Adleman- have enjoyed any degree of ML success. I expect this current crop (Reed, Stephenson, Garrett, perhaps Romano & Davis) to fare no better, with perhaps 1 or 2 making sp grade & perhaps another catching on in the pen. They’re not all Maroi Soto.

    • I think that you are being sarcastic, but will answer as if you weren’t: Greene might not pitch for the Reds for 4 years or more, and even then only if he avoids injury, learns good secondary pitches and makes good progress. Robert Stephenson was viewed as a nearly sure-thing future ace when he was drafted.

  4. Who would you say is first on depth chart to get called up to Majors? Cody Reed is probably the favorite, but my gut feeling is Romano is a tad bit closer.

    Also, when will most prospect rankings add Greene and other Draft picks to Reds top 30?

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