Titanic Struggle Recap

Big seventh inning lifts the Reds past the dirty birds

The Reds entered play on Monday with one of the worst starting pitching rotations so far in MLB history.

The Reds are desperate for anyone to step up, and tonight Asher Wojciechowski did just that. He allowed just two runs over six innings, and kept the ball in the park, something he was not able to do in Toronto in his first start. Wojciechowski was helped by Adam Duvall, who threw out two runners in big situations.

The Reds offense had just two hits off Carlos Martinez through six innings, and he was absolutely cruising. Billy Hamilton lead off the seventh inning with a perfect bunt single. That seemingly got Martinez off his game out of nowhere. He fell behind to the next hitter Zack Cozart 3-0, and Cozart ended up with a single. Joey Votto then drew a clutch walk, and the bases were loaded. Martinez was able to strike out Duvall, but Eugenio Suarez ripped a double that Dexter Fowler nearly made an incredible catch on, and the game was tied. Martinez exited the game, and Scooter Gennett hit a big double in a tough lefty-lefty matchup against Kevin Siegrist to give the Reds a 4-2 lead.

The Reds bullpen was great just like all season. Bonilla, Lorenzen, and Iglesias didn’t allow a hit over three innings. The Reds secured a 4-2 win in the first of four games against the Cardinals at GABP.

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (26-30) 4 6 0
St. Louis Cardinals (26-29) 2 8 0
W: Bonilla (2-3) L: Martinez (4-5) S: Iglesias (10)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Eugenio Suarez’ RBI double off Carlos Martinez with 1 out in the 7th inning, tying the game at 2-2. That play increased the Reds chances of winning by 32.9% (from 40.3% to 73.2%).

Player of the Game

Positives

Asher Wojciechowski gave the Reds a much needed quality start (6.0 IP, 8 H, 0 HR, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 2.05 FIP). He couldn’t keep the ball in the park against the Blue Jays last week, but against a Cardinals lineup that lacks power he was. He has done a great job throwing strikes so far with the Reds, as he has just 3 walks in 14.0 innings.

Eugenio Suarez and Scooter Gennett both had 2-RBI doubles in the 7th inning, which accounted for all of the Reds scoring tonight.

Billy Hamilton got on-base twice tonight. His bunt single in the 7th inning started the Reds big rally. He was also robbed of a hit by a nice play by the Cardinals 2B DeJong.

Zack Cozart had a two hit night, and is now hitting  .348/.433/.620. The latest all-star ballot update was released today, and Cozart has moved up to second place among SS, about 57,000 behind Corey Seager. Cozart has been climbing, and since the first release of the voting update last week, Cozart has received 283,234 votes. Seager has received 205,436 votes.

Adam Duvall threw out two runners in the game, and both were huge to help out Wojciechowski. Duvall had 16 defensive runs saved last year. That was the 2nd most among all LF in the MLB, and the 10th most among all MLB players in any one position.

Lisalverto BonillaMichael Lorenzen, and Raisel Iglesias pitched three hitless innings. Bonilla and Lorenzen pitched perfect innings. Iglesias did walk a batter, but struck out 3.

The Reds for whatever strange reason have owned Carlos Martinez this season.

Negatives

Nothing to see here.

Not so random thoughts………

Tonight’s version of what misinformed info did you hear from the Reds broadcast comes from our good friend Thom Brennaman. Adam Duvall (as stated above), threw out two runners. Thom went on a tangent about how he doesn’t believe in advanced fielding metrics because this off-season he heard that Adam Duvall was listed as a below average fielder. That would be cool, except Duvall had 16 defensive runs saved last year. That was the 2nd most among all LF in the MLB, and the 10th most among all MLB players in any one position. Jim Day doubled down on the advanced metrics being wrong about Duvall last season in the postgame show as well. Holy Moses.

Baseball is a funny game, and wins and losses for pitchers are silly. Yesterday, Julio Teheran got the win against the Reds. Tonight, Carlos Martinez got the loss against the Reds.

Up Next:

Cardinals at Reds
Tuesday, 7:10 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Tim Adleman (4.89 ERA) vs Adam Wainwright (3.79 ERA)

 

All photos are used courtesy of Sam Greene and the Cincinnati Enquirer, and are used by permission. All statistics are used courtesy of Fangraphs, ESPN Stats & Info, and Baseball-Reference.

61 thoughts on “Big seventh inning lifts the Reds past the dirty birds

  1. I swear if my turning off the game when we were down lead in any way to us coming back and winning I’ll do it every night.

    Love me some roast Dirty Birds. Extra special when The Neck Tattoo whiffs like he did against Iggy.

    • might add he whiffs after crying a call on a low strike and the ump had the audacity to call the very next pitch which was the same vertical level a strike also….

      • They looked like strikes to me… Would have to pull up the map to see if robo-umps would have called them strikes.

        • I saw them, and definitely strikes they were.

          A couple hits last night notwithstanding, he’s just frustrated over his mediocre offensive output this season.

  2. The Old Cossack couldn’t do anything but sit in the Old Recliner and shake his head in disgust when Tom began spewing his complete lack of baseball intelligence while talking about Duvall’s defense.

    • The worst part is when they doubled down in the post-game show. You’d think someone would have said, he you were actually wrong about that.

      • I’ve found myself tuning out of the post-game commentary this season in favor of getting updates on the minor league games and kery individual performances rather than listening to a lot of nothing from the radio crew and Price, so I missed it.

      • Did anyone else hear during the last two innings of the tv broadcast discussion that this could be Bonilla’s first win since 2014? And yet I see his record is now listed as 2-3…

        • Pretty sure he is not 2-3, I cannot recall when he won a game this season, baseball reference had him at 0-3 as of yesterday.
          What was the comments made on Duvall defense, what was he wrong about?

    • I’ve started listening to the WLW audio feed instead when Thom is on TV. I supposed if Marty does what Marty does when he returns I’ll just listen to the ballpark feed or switch to the opposing team feed altogether. Either that or just mute it.

  3. The Reds defense won this game for the good guys tonight. Not just the 2 big throws by Duvall, but the timely double plays to keep the game in moderate control until the Reds bats could wake up. I’m waiting for the game when the pitcher just completely loses his composure while trying to pitch to Votto and just starts screaming at Votto from the mound then plunks him rather than issuing him another BB.

  4. Good win for the good guys.

    Watching on TV I couldn’t help but notice all the empty seats for a game versus the Cardinals. This leaves me wondering if (lack of) fannies in the seats and buying concessions could end up playing a role in the Reds plans, making them more likely to go in on a flashy trade which they believe might speed the rebuild and thus put more fannies in the seats sooner than otherwise????

    • I noticed the same. The box score showed only 16,000 for the attendance. I am assuming school is out which means it was a low turn out for a decent weather night.

      • School isn’t quite out in Ohio yet but it is in Indiana. Not sure about Kentucky. I would have thought they would get 20,000+ even on a weeknight. Disappointing but I’m not one to tell people how to spend their entertainment dollars. I was sitting at home on my couch watching rather than making the 25 mile drive down to the ballpark.

    • I think they’ve done a nice job of matching payroll to revenue. Fan revenue was likely down about 18 million last year and net payroll was down about the same. This year, fan revenue should be flat to modestly down and payroll is modestly down.

      This isn’t a “baseball statement”…..but moving Frazier and Chapman off the books when they did likely enabled them to be more profitable on less revenue. I’m sure they’d rather draw 2.5 million than 1.8 million, but the cash cost to win enough games to draw 2.5 million is likely far more than the incremental revenue produced.

      • Williams claims that the substantial portion of the downturn in payroll has been spent on infrastructure; and that as early as this coming off season will start being redirected back into payroll.

  5. I saw the post game show and wondered what in the heck they were talking about.Do they just make this stuff up?They watched him all of last year and saw how he performed?It could be the words advanced fielding metrics just got everybody to scratching their heads.I mean it sounds bad so it must be bad.Just trying to come up with an excuse for those guys.

    • My guess is that there might have been an individual tiny piece of either DRS or UZR that might have been negative, and someone saw it, Thom overheard that person talking about it, then formed his own opinion.

      OR, it is a targeted attack to get the less-than-smart listeners to steel themselves against “advanced” stats even more.

  6. I’ll keep beating the Lorenzen in the rotation drum….retired the Cards on 12 pitches tonite. Obviously he wouldn’t be hitting 99 but he has the kind of movement w/velocity where he can just pitch to contact and get outs or double plays when needed! I lived in Texas in the 90s and saw a ton of Kevin Brown and I don’t think he even had much of a change-up or slow curve? He just pounded the zone with movement and racked up ground outs!

  7. Jays/A’s free game on yahoo…watched a inning of As lefty Sean Manaea. He’s a big tall kid that can hit 94 or so but its that down-and-in slider to lefties that really makes him look like a potential #2 starter. How come the Reds big lefties can seem to get that pitch down? Every time I’ve seen Reed his slider is down and in so much that it never looks like a strike or he bends it over the middle of the plate above the belt and it gets hit a mile! The slider seems to be almost forgotten for Garrett…basically fastball/change-up. These guys have to use that size and get that downward bend on it or they’ll never be much?

  8. Player of the game? Adam Duvall! Don’t even look at his at-bats. How many guys did he throw out tonight? Look at the his fine throw to the plate, after he picked up the ball with his momentum going in the wrong direction. Wow! Let’s give him credit! And he isn’t even listed on your ballot.

      • Me, too. I’m happy for Wojo, and happy the Reds won, but I also couldn’t help noticing that the Cards started hitting rockets off him after a few innings. All of our starters seem to be long-relief guys in disguise.

    • Not that WPA is the only thing that matters, but even crediting Duvall with the 6+% WPA change his two assists gave, he was still negative WPA for the game. Turns out making an out with the bases loaded is really, really bad.

      • Duvall also got gunned down at second by Molina. That’s not good. He made an out with the bases loaded? Of course, that’s not good either. But baseball is a game where you fail more than succeed. So, what is the overall result for Duvall and the Reds today? Simply, without Duvall’s two assists (and at least one was quite amazing), the Reds are not even in this game. Look at advanced metrics, of course. But they do not always tell the whole story. Duvall’s arm won this game..

  9. Adam Duvall threw out two runners in the game, and both were huge to help out Wojciechowsk. Duvall had 16 defensive runs saved last year. That was the 2nd most among all LF in the MLB, and the 10th most among all MLB players in any one position.

    Yeah, let’s trade him. Sheesh.

    • Yeah. Seems that some want to trade based upon a person’s age and yet disregard that same line of reasoning with Votto. Our offense and defense is nearing perfection. Extend Cozart 3 or 4 years and enjoy a stellar team.

    • You do understand that Duvall has a number of red flags that historically have led to diminishing production, such as a low walk rate?
      No one is denying that Duvall is playing well and has certainly been better than most anticipated 2 years ago. By all accounts he’s a very positive addition. However, doesn’t it make sense to consider the possibility/probability that Duvall’s high k-low walk rate will eventually impact his ability to perform? Everyone gets figured out and needs to adjust. If you’re unable to secure walks then you ultimately are at the pitchers mercy as you will see nothing you can drive.

      • Duvall’s OBP entering last night’s game was .322. Not world-beating, but a clear improvement over last year. Again, general projections don’t necessarily apply to specific players. That said, a very good offer for anyone is worth considering, but if we know about his red flags, it’s safe to assume that the other teams do, too.

        • His walk rate is lower than last year. His BABIP is higher than last year w/o having a meaningful increase in any peripheral stat that increases BABIP.

          His “true-talent” OBP at this point, given his batted ball proflle, is around .305-.310. Which isn’t so far from .322, really.

    • But he can’t hit. Everybody knows it . That’s why Hamilton tries to steal 3rd with 2 outs & Duvall at the plate. Fact is Duvall led off the 2nd with that base hit. Those 55 HR & 162 RBI in 902 AB are anomalies.

      • What is your point? Anyone with a wi-fi password can decipher that Duvall is
        ” currently” playing well. The baseball graveyard is filled with guys who started off looking like Babe Ruth and wound up looking like Ruth Bader Ginsberg.

        Duvall’s analytics show he fits into a profile of a guy that “may” not be able to adjust. The debate around trading him isn’t about what makes the Reds better-worse a week from now. Trading him would be most certainly make the Reds immediately worse. It’s a matter of can Duvall sustain and inporove. Will he make the Reds better in the future.

        • Will Duvall make the Reds better in the future window they are targeting than the return they would get on him would for the same target? I think it comes down to that.

          If they don’t import starting pitching via trade or FA signings, that future target is likely 2020-2022 because unless everything falls exactly perfectly, it is going to take them at least 2 more seasons to develop even a league average rotation internally. On the other hand, a couple of solid middle of the rotation guys added to the current mix in 2018 may make them a legitimate contender immediately if even 1 or 2 internal candidates get healthy or develop sufficiently.

          DW has to decide where is window is then deal accordingly.

        • Seems to me you would have to get someone on the order of Matt Latos (someoe with some proven major league performance and a few years of control) for Duvall to trade Duvall now…and Winkler would have to step in and provide equal defense and offensive production…otherwise you are just treading water.

      • The anomaly is evidently repeating itself this year. I’m doubtful that Billy tried to steal 3rd last night because Duvall was up. Billy steals bases. It’s what he does. He steals when Votto is up.

  10. The Cards offense has been sputtering this year. This should be a good series for us.

    • To me the Cards look like a team that tried to ride the old horse one race too long last year and now are trying to retool without openly going into rebuilding mode.

      I don’t think it bodes well for their prospects that they sank such big money into a 34 year old catcher thru 2020 when the rest of the cast isn’t certain.

      • I think Oscar Taveras’s death had a lot to do with the Cardinals’ offensive predicament. Plus, they haven’t pulled their usual career year out of washed up veterans schtick this year.

      • And the Neck Tat is one of the worst catchers offensively this season. His two caught stealings last night aside, he’s a high-medium defender anymore too.

        • Molina’s OPS since (and counting) his age 30 season to present is .748; his OPS+ 102. A big hunk of that is thanks to his age 30 season.

  11. The Reds are in a good position with Duvall.He has flaws but its not like he isn’t productive and they don’t have to trade him to begin with.He is a tweener in age in that he isn’t old nor young and team control is for 4 years so that should make another team want him enough to pay for him.Very valuable trading chip right now or after the season because I think he can sustain his performance for another year or two.His swing is short and compact and he can take it out in any direction especially in GABP.He took advantage of his opportunity and is a really good player.

  12. Was the following the game casually on Game day during Asher Wojciechowski pitching and it seemed he was awful when I tuned. At one point 7 of 9 batters got hitts after first time through line-up. Somehow the Cardinals only scored 2 runs. I believe he allowed 9 of last 14 batters to reach base- I would think he was not fooling any one and just got lucky he made it through the 4th with help of poor Cardinals base running

    • Wojo had 6 Ks/2 walks and got 2-3 doubleplays. He also didn’t get taken deep. That puts him miles above the other clowns imo….not that he’s that great either. I remembered that he mowed down Toronto the first time thru the lineup too then got promptly blasted. He might be 7th in line if the Reds were fully healthy.

  13. I wouldn’t call it poor Cardinals base running. I’d call it good Reds defense. The throws by Duvall were right on the money, especially the one at third base that nailed Piscotty. Just watch the replay of it and watch Piscotty’s reaction of disbelief that he was out after the play.
    However, it was the 2 early double plays that got Wojo off the hook.

    • I heard somewhere last week that Carlos Zambrano is pitching in Mexico or someplace? He’s only 35!! He could be the only pitcher that hits someone and then both teams try to beat him up on the mound!

  14. Truly hilarious INDY but you are right.Fans would join in as well.Family may want to take a shot.

  15. At dinnertime, my kids like us to ask them trivia questions. My 8yo, who scores games and collects baseball cards, asked for a hard spelling question, so I jokingly gave him “Wojciechowski.”

    He got it on the first try. I am not freaking kidding you guys.

      • I spell it just fine but need to use the Polish pronunciation and not the American pronunciation to know how… Semi-Fluent in Polish. I used to be very fluent but lack of use has eroded it by a significant margin.

  16. Who puts the inane public interest stories on in the middle of the game? I want to watch Red’s baseball, not here Jim Day interview some nice old lady.

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