2017 Reds

Reds vs Blue Jays- May 31, 2017

Today’s matinee gives the Reds one last chance to win a game in Toronto this season. The Reds need a win today not only to avoid a series sweep but also to complete both the current road trip and month of May at .500. As Jack McKeon used to say about the turnaround between a night game and following matinee, we need to sleep  quick; so, let’s get to it.

Starting Pitchers

Tim Adleman starts for the Reds. Adelman has pitched 36 innings in 7 previous starts this season which makes him a 5 inning man. His ERA is 4.95 with a marginally better 4.80 FIP. The rap on Adleman is that he tends to be OK until he goes off the tracks suddenly then he is done for the day, often taking the team’s chances with him to the showers.

Righthander Mike Bolsinger will be on the mound for the Jays. With Francisco Liriano nearing his return from the DL, Bolsinger may be the man on the Toronto’s rotation bubble per MLB.com. Bolsinger has made 4 starts this season for Toronto pitching 20.1 innings. Like his counterpart Adleman, he is a 5 inning pitcher. However, his ERA and FIP are both much worse than Adleman’s.   Perhaps most notably, he has actually walked more batters than he has struck out.

PITCHER xFIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9
Tim Adleman 4.54 1.58 3.15 7.65
Mike Bolsinger 5.90 0.89 6.64 6.20

Bullpens

Michael Lorenzen pitched 3 outstanding relief innings Tuesday night and undoubtedly is not available today. Blake Wood pitched a disastrous 8th inning Tuesday and likely will not see action today. Everyone else including new arrival righthander Jackson Stephens should be available for the Reds. When Stephens gets into a game, he will be the 10th Reds player and 7th Reds pitcher to make his MLB debut in 2017.

Toronto’s Danny Barnes pitched 2 innings Tuesday and likely will be unavailable. Everyone else in the Blue Jays pen should be on call.

Lineups

 

     REDS

SP: Tim Adleman

    BLUE JAYS

SP: Mike Bolsinger

1. Billy Hamilton (CF)
2. Zack Cozart (SS)
3. Joey Votto (1B)
4. Adam Duvall (LF)
5. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
6. Scott Schebler (RF)
7. Scooter Gennett (DH)
8. Tucker Barnhart (C)
9. Jose Peraza (2B)
1. Devon Travis (2B)
2. Ezequiel Carrera (CF)
3. Jose Bautista (RF)
4. Kendrys Morales (1B)
5. Justin Smoak (DH)
6. Russell Martin (3B)
7. Chris Coghlan (LF)
8. Ryan Goins (SS)
9. Luke Maile (C)

Final Thoughts

Pending the outcome of today’s game, the Reds will finish May at either 14-14 or 13-15.

Despite instability of the starting pitching, the Reds will be at least 5 games better in May 2017 than they were in May 2016.

For the 2017 season the Reds will be at least 7 games better than they were through the end of May during the 2016 season.  

From June 1, 2016 through the end of action today, the Reds will have played 162 games, the equivalent of a full season. For this “season”, their record will be either 75-87 or 76-86.  That’s just 5 turned games over the course of a season from .500, the jumping off point to contention.

Could it be time to trade some patience for higher expectations?


Data and stats from Baseball-Reference.comFangraphs.com, and MLB.com

62 thoughts on “Reds vs Blue Jays- May 31, 2017

  1. Yes it is time to raise our expectations. This team is no longer terrible. We should expect nothing less than at least .500 right now.

    • In the wrap around season of June 2016 thru May of 2017 they were also very consistent. There was only two months, June and September of 2016, where they were more than 2 games off of .500 (12-16 both months). For me that’s another sign it is time to move from building in general and start zeroing in on filling specific needs, like starting pitching at 1 1A, 1B etc……

    • Every aspect of the team is definitely above-.500 caliber — except the starting pitching, which might be as bad as last year’s bullpen.

  2. Vottomatic.

    After a mini-slump, looks like Votto may be ready to go on another tear.

  3. Zack Cozart now sporting a 171 wRC+. Unreal. Votto’s injury shortened 2012 was his best season at 172 wRC+, I believe.

      • He’ll make the team unless he goes into a huge slump. He’s tied for 2nd in MLB in fWAR I think. But he won’t start. Too many big market teams with fan-favorites.

  4. Amazing that with a win today, they’ll have had a .500 May and stand only two games under .500 for the year. Given terrible luck with injuries and frequently awful starting pitching, I’m delighted with that record. With even consistently decent starting pitching this team is a playoff contender. Oh, and Votto!!

  5. Back to back walks to start the 2nd. Can they actually turn one of these starts to an inning into something big????

  6. Hopefully the pitching staff will be healthier next season. That coupled with a new Manager should make it.

    • +1000

      I’m in my car a few minutes ago and said to myself that Barnhart should bunt since he’s a good candidate for the doubleplay. Schebler has some speed on 2nd base as well. Price loves the bunt when Barnhart is the dead duck turtle on base but he can’t advise it here? Of course it costs the Reds a run!

  7. My knee started aching just watching that. It seems like this year I’ve watched more umpire injuries than in years past.

  8. Ump was quick to call that third strike. Probably wanted to get out of the crouch and move around

  9. You can see these things coming a mile away.The guy who went deep is hitting .074 for goodness sakes.Once we start through the third time its big time trouble for our starters.Just don’t have the stuff.

  10. This is not a game the Reds should lose! Bolsinger is their Bonilla….he’s awful and they’re sitting Donaldson & Tulo. Cmon boys!!

  11. You are right INDY but we struggle against these type of guys because we are not patient at the plate.

  12. Yeah lets leave Scooter in to face the lefty when Kvilehan has been doing damage! I swear Price costs the Reds 5 games a year easy!!

      • Every credible study shows a managers net impact at +-3 to 5 games per year. Yet, you’re claiming that Bryan Price cost them a net 26 games per year. So the 98 loss disaster of 2015 would’ve been a wild card contending 89-73 with anyone else? Were the Reds really a 93 win team last year with another manager?

        Who knew.

  13. Booth again noting the inconsistency of the strike zone … something has to give at some point because it just gets ridiculously inaccurate at times.

  14. That’s a kick in the gut. Really wish Peralta would have just ignored the runner on first and concentrated in the hitter.

  15. Those long atbats never seem to work out in the pitchers favor. Just walk the guy or let him get himself out and move on to the next guy! Straily was a master at that! Another one bites the dust!!

  16. I like Joe Smith. He’s a good, local kid. I hope the Reds bash him around some though.

  17. Reds lose again.Today it was because we didn’t hit and like last night their pen got it done and ours didn’t.We are not always going to hit and our pen will give up some but it gets magnified because we have no room for error with our starters.We celebrate if they keep us in the game past the 4th.

  18. As usual! Billy chokes and Price should’ve had Barnhart bunt in the 3rd or whenever it was? To avoid the double play there and moves up 2 runners for Peraza who’s been hitting well. It would be 5-5 right now!

        • 1st/2nd nobody out and your slowest batter at the plate with a fast man on 2nd and a great contact hitter on deck. Yeah…as soon as I turned on my radio and saw they walked Scooter….I was thinking possible dp. Thats not hindsight

          • Same dumb@## manager will bunt the pitcher with Barnhart on base and the corner infielders standing 20 feet away.

    • Seriously, enough with the ” choke” non sense. Most batters ” choke” most of the time.

      Hitting a baseball is much more difficult than sitting on your couch, eating Doritos and endlessly commenting on the failures of others

      • Lol…..yeah you never attempt to humililate anyone. You’re always the beacon of positivity! ##$(**V&# charles

      • Hey Aristotle Schick , glad you got all the answers. Folks have a right to express their own opinions on this board. You are the one that endlessly comments how everyone’s opinion is wrong but your own.

  19. Players win and lose but the Reds fans (and players) deserve to have a front office & manager that are putting people in the best position to win. They fail to do that time after time! If its not Price neglecting his job then its the front office! Ross > Bonilla by a mile but whos on the Reds roster and who isn’t? A decent manager pinch hits Kvilehan over Scooter vs a lefty. Most of this stuff is a no-brainer!

    • Jackson Stephens 5.79 at AAA & gets promoted. I think they drop names in a hat…I really do!

      • It has more to do with who is on the 40-man as well as service times. But I do agree it can be frustrating seeing obviously more talented players passed over when the team is struggling.

        But patience got us this far. What’s a little longer?

  20. Billy was 0-4 and 2-12 in the series with 3K’s when he came up.He has to put the ball in play but the reality is he has no power and is not a threat to hit a sac fly.He is not an RBI guy and with the game on the line who would be your choice to pitch too on our team.You would want to pitch to a guy that strikes out and has no power.It is not a knock on him its just who he is.They gave us a chance and we gave it right back.I would have pinch hit for him in a heart beat and regardless it would have the right call.

    • Infield in….you hope he can slash one somewhere but he immediately started chasing out of the zone. It happens. Ozuna or whatever his name is….he’s their closer for a reason. I just hate the simple things that can be controlled. Scooter is .194 vs lefties last 3 years….he needs to be hit for there in a tie game with the go ahead run on 2nd. Price is always a step behind…always!

      • I understand that I’m not qualified to make decisions for a ML team, but I believe it may be time to take a look at Peraza #1 & Billy #8 in the lineup. Hamilton is repeating the same mistakes as 1st half of 2016 & before.

  21. Had enough boys…too much losing. See in you 3-4 weeks. I’m trying to sell my house….can’t be over analyzing a sub. 500 team on a daily basis all summer anyway. No hard feeling to Chuck or anyone else….good luck!!

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