The Cincinnati Reds (21-23) finally got a win over the Cleveland Indians (23-20). The Reds had lost six straight games to the Tribe prior to a 5-1 win last evening. Scott Feldman was brilliant, and he needed to be against the defending AL champs lineup. Tonight, the Reds will turn to rookie Amir Garrett, who will be looking to get back on track.

Starting Pitchers

Amir Garrett‘s 2017 numbers are bit misleading. It’s hard to believe that a pitcher with a 5.18 ERA has actually had a quality start in 5 of his 7 starts. In those five starts quality starts, Garrett has a 2.24 ERA with 27 K, 10 BB, and 3 HR in 32.2 IP. The other two starts, Garrett has got beat around (at MIL, at CHC): 7.1 IP, 15 ER, 6 K, 8 BB, 5 HR.

The good news for Garrett is that the Indians struggle against LHP. The Indians team 83 wRC+ vs LHP ranks 24th in the MLB.


Carlos Carrasco might be one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. Since the start of 2014, Carrasco’s 11.7 fWAR ranks 17th best in the MLB. The three pitchers directly behind Carrasco are Cole Hammels, Gerrit Cole, and Noah Syndergaard. Over that same span, Carrasco’s 3.02 FIP is the 9th best among qualifying pitchers.

Carrasco had to leave his last start on 5/15 because of pectoral tightness. He also missed the end of last season, including the Indians run to the World Series because of a fracture in his pitching hand.

Carrasco has made 4 career appearances (3 starts) against the Reds, but the last came in 2015. He has a 4.09 ERA with 21 K and 5 BB in 22.0 IP.

Starting Lineups

You can find the lineups here.

Can Schebler do it again?

Scott Schebler has homered in three consecutive games. Can he do it again? Schebler is on pace for 48 home runs. Yes, 48 home runs! I think most of Reds fans thought we would be livid if anyone was holding Winker down at AAA. Well, Schebler has been good enough to do just that, and do it without most of the Reds faithful being upset about Winker being stuck at AAA.

Joey Votto 1, Indians fan 0

Votto apparently had some fun with some Indians fans that were heckling him on Monday evening. Enjoy.

Conclusion

The Reds have Amir Garrett on the mound, and are a win away from a quick two-game sweep of the defending AL champs in the Queen City. The Indians struggle against LHP, and this just might be the night he puts together a really good start. Go Reds!

 

All photos are used courtesy of Kareem Elgazzar and the Cincinnati Enquirer, and are used by permission. All statistics are used courtesy of Fangraphs, ESPN Stats & Info, and Baseball-Reference. 

Nick is a lifelong Reds fan who was born and raised in Cincinnati. He acquired his love of baseball from his late grandfather. Nick moved to the Cleveland area in 2014 with his wife, and his currently fighting to convert his beautiful baby daughter Emma to Reds fandom. Nick has been writing for Redleg Nation since 2013. Follow Nick on Twitter @nicholaspkirby.

Join the conversation! 101 Comments

  1. Whisk brooms up. Little sweep. Need a good outing tonight from Garrett.

  2. I feel the whole Ohio Cup thing is a little forced. To me, the Indians are just another team. Detroit and Pittsburgh are about just as close as Cleveland.

    • It was cool the first time they played them. But I agree — I don’t think anyone gives much thought to the concept.

      Granted, I still hate the Dodgers from the NL West.

  3. It seems to be a lot of feast or famine for these starting pitchers, by my count Feldman has 4 starts of allowing 1 run or fewer, gotta think that is near the top of the league. If they give up a few runs early does not seem like they settle down. Here is hoping Reds gets at least a 6th quality start, if not something excellent from Amir tonight

  4. ok then…so the vitriole and RLN outrage over Sunday’s debacle…..and the Arroyo why is he pitching….and Stephenson why is he not….addressed in enquirer article just now.
    Price says goal for Stephenson is to mature and learn how to be a major league pitcher. May not pitch 140 innings,,, but goal for him is to learn how to handle adversity and be a pro and mature. No plans to send him to AAA. Keep him in MLB this year to let him learn the mental part of being a professional.
    I’m good with that. Truce.

    • Here’s the money quote from Price. “My goal for him (Stephenson) was to get comfortable pitching at the big league level and helping us be a better team by being in our bullpen.”

      If so, then why didn’t Garrett and Davis start out in the pen as well? How is giving one of your best arms an inning here and there of mop up work making the Reds a better team? Price says Stephenson is on a pace for 80 innings and meanwhile you got Arroyo in there on a pace for 200 innings during a season where questions were supposed to be answered.

    • Stephenson pitched 163 innings. So I guess he is destined to regress to something less this year, which means that he won’t be able to pitch a full load next year as a starter??

      • I’ve said my piece on Stephenson and Arroyo…I will wait a month to see how the Reds handle things and injuries play out. I will say I think this offense and bullpen is ahead of schedule….Zach cozart will be a big loss though.

  5. Price sounds like he is raising a child when he talks about maturity and learning etc.No talk about his pitching?

  6. The new stat gurus say rbis don’t matter and hitting w/risp is a fluke and not a real ability but Duvall is on pace for 120+ rbis, hitting over .300 w/risp and nearly .400 with 2 outs/risp. If hitting w/risp is not important then scoring TDs isn’t important in football. There is almost nothing more important in my book in the game of baseball and Duvall does it pretty well!

    • if everybody gets on in front him like they have been doing most guys can get near 100 RBI, I seriously doubt he gets to that if anybody tails off, he just is not that good of a hitter who showed he worse down 2nd half last year. If he puts up the numbers then the RBI’s will grow of course. Billy’s on pace for 60

    • So if he’s able to control how he performs with RISP then why can’t he control how he performs without RISP?

      That number is a reflection of the sheer randomness associated with extremely small sample sizes and the fact that if the pitcher is already struggling and allowing guys to get on base then he’s likely easier to hit.

    • No one is saying hitting with RISP isn’t important. That’s just stupid, of course it’s important to get hits when runners are on base. The thing is, hitting without RISP is important too. All hitting is important.

      What stat gurus are saying is that there’s no such thing as a “clutch” hitter. Either a guy’s a good hitter, or he’s not. Some people think that a guy with a high avg w/ RISP is like Bane from the comics, injecting himself with Venom whenever there’s a runner on second. Like magic, the Venom turns a normal .250 hitter into a .400 superhero! Amazing!

      • Anyone who’s actually played a sport rather than just be a stats geek knows that the “pressure” of a situation changes how different people perform/behave. Those are human beings at bat – not dice throws.

        • Yep, and anyone who’s played sports would know that you can’t just “flip a switch” and become a better player whenever you feel like it. Like when runners are on base.

          Doesn’t work like that.

    • Duvall has the most PA with runners in scoring position. Duvall is 84th in baseball, with a minimum of 30 PA, in wRC+. It is 116. Votto leads the Reds at 210. Freeman leads MLB with 278

      Duvall has the 3rd highest PA in baseball with 60.

      Not sure Duvall is anything special with runners in scoring position

  7. Now can Amir get a good bunt down?

  8. Scooter with an 8 pitch walk.I just love those kind of professional at bats.

    • That was a great atbat. He was an excellent pickup for the Reds! Our bench is a strength for the first time in atleast 5 years.

  9. Jam shot bloop for Billy = RBI single

  10. That’s what you call a ‘get it done’ hit by Garrett.

  11. Got two but should have had more.Hard to argue with Billy being thrown out trying to steal but it hurt as did Cozy’s pop up.

  12. 0-2 on Lindor and walks him.Growing pains of a young pitcher and of course he scores.

    • Then he can’t get the breaking ball over and grooves a fastball to Brantley. It seems like he can’t put them away tonite?

  13. Tie game.

  14. Home Plate ump, Fagen, doesn’t call the low strike. Both teams so far. Of every ump in the majors, he leads in runs per 9 (11.36) by a half a run.

    https://www.rotowire.com/daily/mlb/umpire_stats.php

  15. You kind of knew Encarnacion was going to do that didn’t you?Down 5-3 just like that.

  16. Gomes with a blast to make it 6-3.The big inning has been Garrett’s down fall in his 3 bad starts.

  17. I’m not giving up on Garrett or the Reds, but man oh man, this pitching staff is tough to watch on a night-by-night basis.

    Fangraphs ranks the Reds’ position players as having played the best of any team so far this year, which is such a pleasant surprise. Unfortunately they have the 27th best pitching staff.

  18. It is what it is but Garrett just threw almost 40 pitches that inning.Just couldn’t put the hitters away.Santana batted it seemed like forever.Learning at the big league level can be very unforgiving at times.I hope he truly is learning and I think he is.

    • Garrett stuff just isn’t that good. That’s why I would rather have Reed and Stephenson starting over him.

    • AAA does nothing for Garrett…this is defending AL champ lineup….get better young man…reds fans are rooting for you.

  19. Ouch….our starting pitching is depressing! We’ve got 4 guys on pace for 30+ HRs/100 rbis and Cozart’s obp is higher then Votto’s. The defense and bullpen is good but we’re still going nowhere this year. I don’t see an elite arm w/Garrett? He needs to get that breaking ball over vs lefties and the slider vs righties. Its basically fastball/change and he doesn’t throw 96 mph. Finnegan actually has better stuff at this point but then he also has more experience.

    • I mean Cozart’s ops is higher then Joey’s….for this week anyway.

      • Typo typo….is good? Never mind me tonite….can’t think straight

  20. As far as velocity Garrett won’t light up the gun which is why he has little room for error.Several young Red pitchers throw much harder but Garrett seems to be ahead of some of the rest in knowing how to pitch.

    • He hasn’t been around long enough to know what he’s doing, but he’s been around long enough for his opponents to have legitimate data and scouting reports on him. He has talent, but everyone gets figured out and we’ll see how well he adjusts.

    • Wow 88 and 89 MPH fastballs from Garrett. Is that correct?

  21. A 9 pitch inning for Carrasco which you knew was going to happen after his team put him ahead.He walked Scott but the rest went up hacking.Peraza with a first pitch out.

  22. 10-0 Nats in the 5th tonite….we haven’t played them yet. That should be Milw Brewer type of fun:(

  23. Good bounce back inning for Garrett.He just hasn’t learned yet how to limit the damage in an inning.When he does its the next step to becoming a good pitcher.

  24. I’m a Bears fan and it amazes me that the NFL’s charter franchise hasn’t developed a QB since Sid Luckman. It’s also amazing that baseball’s charter franchise has developed such a small number of quality starters over the past 40 years.

    • I’m a Bears fan too….don’t short change Mr. Michael Tomczak now!! The guy was a born leader:) McMahon wasn’t great and was never going to put up big passing stats w/Payton on the team but he was very good when healthy! I would compare him to Joe Flacco or someone like that.

      As for the Reds….its the sad truth. Cueto, Rijo, and Soto and thats about it. I can’t think of anyone else close to elite off the top of my head? 3 guys in 40 is pretty sad….even if I’m forgetting 1-2 guys its still pathetic!

  25. Carrasco is back on point with 20 pitches in the last two innings.This game is over but I hope Stephensen gets to pitch tonight.

  26. Garrett’s ERA is up near 6 now. Tell me again, why is he getting the chance to learn on the job, while Stephenson is relegated to the bullpen and Reed wastes away in AAA?

    Not to throw shade on Garrett. I’m fine with him in the rotation. But the other two should be there as well.

    • Ya I don’t get the double standards. Seems like the high ceiling guys should be getting more chances than the lower ceiling guys. Maybe there’s some other stuff going on that we aren’t seeing.

      • For some reason, those two seem to be in Bryan Price’s doghouse. I think he would prefer to start Jason Marquis again than give either of them a shot.

        • Here’s the funny thing about that.

          Player A 6.46 ERA 5.27 FIP 4.08 xFIP
          Player B 6.00 ERA 6.34 FIP 4.77 xFIP.

          Player A is Jason Marquis 2015
          Player B is Amir Garrett 2017

          BTW not saying Garrett should be ridden out of town or anything like that. He’s still a rookie going through growing pains although his peripherals are kind of scary.

  27. I hope they keep Arroyo long enough to face Bryce Harper! I want to personally watch the longest HR in major league history!

  28. What happened to Sal Romano anyway? Knowing the Reds…its probably TJ surgery on each arm and he’ll be on the 730 day DL like Homer.

  29. Must be terrible for our offense to be behind all the time.Carrasco with another 9 pitch inning.

  30. They rushed up Lorenzen at 23 years old after barely pitching in college & the minors so why are Castillo (24) and Hernandez (25) still at AA? Hernandez has allowed 1 run in his last 10.2 with 13 Ks. You can only throw 100 for so long so why waste it on AA kids? Is it too much to ask for the Reds FO to be consistent?

  31. I am with you INDY but we don’t count.I am of the belief you just throw guys out there and see what they have got but I don’t know about roster moves or options or service time or anything else.To me its just a game.

  32. Cozy with a tough 0-4 night but Carrasco is good.

  33. Surprised he went back out for the 7th.Votto getting the respect he deserves because here comes the lefty in.

  34. Didn’t matter because Joey singles now if Duvall can go deep we are right back in it.

  35. TIE GAME!!! Suarez 3 run jack!!!!…..he is so much better when he goes oppo.

  36. And this game is tied!!!!!!!

  37. WOW Suarez just tied it with a 3 run homer.

  38. We are watching an offensive rebirth…this isn’t a fluke. Suarez and schebler are good hitters

  39. They are good hitters and young

  40. Francona brought in the right guys but it just didn’t work out.Sometimes it happens.Logan,Shaw and now Miller are really good.

    • The benefit is he’s burning the pen quickly on a tie game in the 8th. Could haunt him in extras

  41. Duvall with a 2 strike rbi hit off a 98 mph heater and Suarez ties it up! Lets get this one now! Its going to be tough to match up with their pen but you never know!

  42. Storen has lost his early season form. Need a shut down inning here.
    Uh oh…leadoff walk

  43. Promptly walks the man in front of the guy who’s hit 2 homers tonight……interesting strategy…..

  44. walk then error

  45. It was fun while it lasted. Storen has been ok but he’s def on the B team….they couldn’t get 1 inning out of Lorenzen to keep the momentum?

  46. This just in….mesoraco is progressing in all phases.

  47. Wow. Just wow.

  48. Devastating wild pitch by Storen…..welp

  49. The pitcher Miller in the on-deck circle and we wild pitch the tie breaking run in with a base open. Unacceptable

  50. So Wandy was warming up. Does Price think Storen is better than Peralta. If Peralta was gonna come in, doesn’t everybody think he’s better than Storen, and should pitch 1st?

  51. With Perazas and Alcantras speed, he should be getting some sort of lead over at 1st

  52. The three fastest guys on the team, and this is what we get?

  53. Reds batters are awesome at getting out of the way of pitches. I recall Choo taking one for the team about 20 times when he was here.

    • Yeah, I admired that about Choo. But honestly, if I have someone who reminds me of Randy Johnson on the mound, I’m moving too

  54. Price? Goes with Storen over Peralta…and then doesn’t walk the guy and bring up automatic out AL pitcher Miller to end the inning. Francona vs Price….is the biggest mismatch in the ballpark tonite!

    • Couldn’t have said it better Indy ! Spot on !

    • I thought that was highly questionable too. How does he go with Storen over Wandy? Right handers batting might be the reason

      • Peralta’s OPS against over the past 2 weeks is a Jumbo Diaz like 1.010.

  55. This walking the leadoff guy is so 2016.

  56. 12-12 in saves….meat of our lineup in a small park = 1st blown save!!

  57. Bring on pinch runner for Tucker

  58. They should pinch run for Barnhart here?

  59. 7 runs can’t get it done. Its a fun year offensively but we just can’t score enough with this pitching. Price is a doofus too! He needs to go!! Good guy but he just makes too many weekly in game mistakes and his knowledge of pitching isn’t rubbing off.

    • Highly improbable that any other managers does much better with this roster. They’re a flawed team that plays like a flawed team.

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About Nick Kirby

Nick is a lifelong Reds fan who was born and raised in Cincinnati. He acquired his love of baseball from his late grandfather. Nick moved to the Cleveland area in 2014 with his wife, and his currently fighting to convert his beautiful baby daughter Emma to Reds fandom. Nick has been writing for Redleg Nation since 2013. Follow Nick on Twitter @nicholaspkirby.

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