Well, last night was ugly. Things aren’t looking so good for the Redlegs lately. They’ve dropped seven games in a row, and Milton has made multiple appearances in our recent recaps. The club’s starting pitching has given them virtually no chance to win for the better part of a week, and their bullpen is worn down. The good news is the offense is still hitting the ball well, but the team desperately needs a good performance from their pitching staff today.
Few pitchers make a leap from Double-A to the majors, but that’s what Antonio Senzatela did when he made the Rockies out of spring training. In fact, he only pitched in seven career games at that level before he got to the big leagues. When you consider his inexperience, it makes his start to the 2017 season all the more impressive.
MLB Pipeline named him the Rockies No. 9 prospect coming into the season. Senzatela has a fastball that touches 98 mph, but he doesn’t strikeout many hitters without a great secondary pitch. When and if he develops more consistency with his slider and changeup, the Rockies could have a special pitcher.
After his last start was cut short after one inning due to neck tightness, Tim Adleman is making today’s start as scheduled. The right-hander hasn’t been spectacular by any means, but — his last start aside — he’s been a solid innings eater at the very least. The Reds need him to eat a whole lot of innings today. His strikeout and walk rates are both above average, but the home run ball has hurt him; against a potent Rockies offense, that might be a problem.
Ian Desmond is the only Rockies hitters he’s faced before, giving up a solo home run in three at-bats.
|CF Charlie Blackmon (131 wRC+)||CF Billy Hamilton (76 wRC+)|
|2B DJ LeMahieu (78 wRC+)||SS Zack Cozart (167 wRC+)|
|3B Nolan Arenado (129 wRC+)||1B Joey Votto (152 wRC+)|
|1B Mark Reynolds (148 wRC+)||LF Adam Duvall (106 wRC+)|
|RF Carlos Gonzalez (41 wRC+)||3B Eugenio Suarez (139 wRC+)|
|LF Ian Desmond (78 wRC+)||RF Scott Schebler (111 wRC+)|
|SS Alexi Amarista (124 wRC+)||2B Jose Peraza (59 wRC+)|
|C Tony Wolters (99 wRC+)||C Devin Mesoraco (106 wRC+)|
|P Antonio Senzatela (4.69 xFIP)||P Tim Adleman (4.47 xFIP)|
After a five-game absence due to a hamstring injury, Devin Mesoraco is returning to the lineup today. Scott Schebler is back, as well.
The Rockies are rolling out the same batting order as yesterday. After scoring 12 runs, why mess with a good thing?
News and Notes
Stat of the Day
Every once in a while, I like to get on Fangraphs just to see how much better of a baserunner Billy Hamilton is than everyone else according to their BsR statistic. It works similarly to wRC+, OPS+, etc. in that it compares players to a league average baserunner. A player with a zero is considered league average. A player with around 8 BsR is considered “excellent.” Here’s a brief description on that stat (you can read more about it here, if you’re interested):
Base Running (BsR) is FanGraphs’ all encompassing base running statistic that turns stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc) into runs above and below average.
Here’s how much better Hamilton was than everyone else last season:
Keep in mind, Hamilton missed the last month of the season, and of this group, only Rajai Davis had a lower on-base percentage.
Here’s how Hamilton stacks up this year:
He’s got a little more competition in Mariners outfielder Jarrod Dyson, but he’s still No. 1 on the list.
Unsurprisingly, Hamilton has the Reds’ all-time record for BsR, which he set back in 2015 (13.4). That number ranks 11th in MLB history. Vince Coleman holds the single-season record (15.7 in 1986), followed closely by Maury Wills (15.6 in 1962).
This losing business is getting old. Hopefully the Reds will go this afternoon. go reds