Well, last night was ugly. Things aren’t looking so good for the Redlegs lately. They’ve dropped seven games in a row, and Milton has made multiple appearances in our recent recaps. The club’s starting pitching has given them virtually no chance to win for the better part of a week, and their bullpen is worn down. The good news is the offense is still hitting the ball well, but the team desperately needs a good performance from their pitching staff today.

Starting Pitchers

Antonio Senzatela 49.0 3.31 4.69 14.4% 7.0%
Tim Adleman 27.1 5.27 4.47 22.4% 6.9%

Few pitchers make a leap from Double-A to the majors, but that’s what Antonio Senzatela did when he made the Rockies out of spring training. In fact, he only pitched in seven career games at that level before he got to the big leagues. When you consider his inexperience, it makes his start to the 2017 season all the more impressive.

MLB Pipeline named him the Rockies No. 9 prospect coming into the season. Senzatela has a fastball that touches 98 mph, but he doesn’t strikeout many hitters without a great secondary pitch. When and if he develops more consistency with his slider and changeup, the Rockies could have a special pitcher.

After his last start was cut short after one inning due to neck tightness, Tim Adleman is making today’s start as scheduled. The right-hander hasn’t been spectacular by any means, but — his last start aside — he’s been a solid innings eater at the very least. The Reds need him to eat a whole lot of innings today. His strikeout and walk rates are both above average, but the home run ball has hurt him; against a potent Rockies offense, that might be a problem.

Ian Desmond is the only Rockies hitters he’s faced before, giving up a solo home run in three at-bats.


Rockies Reds
CF Charlie Blackmon (131 wRC+) CF Billy Hamilton (76 wRC+)
2B DJ LeMahieu (78 wRC+) SS Zack Cozart (167 wRC+)
3B Nolan Arenado (129 wRC+) 1B Joey Votto (152 wRC+)
1B Mark Reynolds (148 wRC+) LF Adam Duvall (106 wRC+)
RF Carlos Gonzalez (41 wRC+) 3B Eugenio Suarez (139 wRC+)
LF Ian Desmond (78 wRC+) RF Scott Schebler (111 wRC+)
SS Alexi Amarista (124 wRC+) 2B Jose Peraza (59 wRC+)
Tony Wolters (99 wRC+) C Devin Mesoraco (106 wRC+)
P Antonio Senzatela (4.69 xFIP) P Tim Adleman (4.47 xFIP)

After a five-game absence due to a hamstring injury, Devin Mesoraco is returning to the lineup today. Scott Schebler is back, as well.

The Rockies are rolling out the same batting order as yesterday. After scoring 12 runs, why mess with a good thing?

News and Notes

Stat of the Day

Every once in a while, I like to get on Fangraphs just to see how much better of a baserunner Billy Hamilton is than everyone else according to their BsR statistic. It works similarly to wRC+, OPS+, etc. in that it compares players to a league average baserunner. A player with a zero is considered league average. A player with around 8 BsR is considered “excellent.” Here’s a brief description on that stat (you can read more about it here, if you’re interested):

Base Running (BsR) is FanGraphs’ all encompassing base running statistic that turns stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc) into runs above and below average.

Here’s how much better Hamilton was than everyone else last season:

Billy Hamilton 12.8 .321
Rajai Davis 10.0 .306
Mookie Betts 9.8 .363
Mike Trout 9.3 .441
Jose Ramirez 8.8 .363
Wil Myers 7.8 .336
Brett Gardner 7.3 .351
Kris Bryant 7.3 .385
Starling Marte 7.0 .362
Kevin Kiermaier 6.8 .331

Keep in mind, Hamilton missed the last month of the season, and of this group, only Rajai Davis had a lower on-base percentage.

Here’s how Hamilton stacks up this year:

Billy Hamilton 5.2 .309
Jarrod Dyson 4.7 .324
Paul Goldschmidt 3.5 .443
Joey Gallo 3.4 .306
Jacoby Ellsbury 2.8 .356
Yasmany Tomas 2.8 .309
Jason Kipnis 2.7 .237
Byron Buxton 2.7 .261
Mookie Betts 2.6 .365
Mike Trout 2.6 .451

He’s got a little more competition in Mariners outfielder Jarrod Dyson, but he’s still No. 1 on the list.

Unsurprisingly, Hamilton has the Reds’ all-time record for BsR, which he set back in 2015 (13.4). That number ranks 11th in MLB history. Vince Coleman holds the single-season record (15.7 in 1986), followed closely by Maury Wills (15.6 in 1962).

Final Thoughts

This losing business is getting old. Hopefully the Reds will go this afternoon. go reds

Growing up just north of Cincinnati, Matt has been a Reds fan for as long as he can remember. As a kid, he was often found leading the Reds to 162-0 seasons in MVP Baseball 2005 and imitating his favorite players (Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, and Austin Kearns) in the backyard. One of his earliest baseball memories is attending the final night game at Cinergy Field. Matt is also a graduate of The Ohio State University and currently lives in the Dayton area. Follow him on Twitter at @_MattWilkes.

Join the conversation! 39 Comments

  1. Second day in a row I have to ask a question then I’ll probably feel silly asking when I hear the answer: what is a “camp” game?

    • From context only and not because I found it for sure…… I’m guessing a “camp game” is a game using the guys in extended spring training playing against each other. Probably more like a scrimmage than a real game.

  2. Stewart Turner has a Hamstring injury. I bet he does. To d.l. for Asher Wojo

    • Probably not a bad move if Meso is healthy enough to pull his weight.. I just checked and the minimum number of days Turner has to be active to meet the Rule5 regulations is 90. So, he’s halfway there. September and the spillover of the season into October are “free” days because of roster expansion; so they’ll only need to squeeze another of couple weeks on the 25 man roster between now and the first of September to have cleared his Rule5 status.

    • Must of pulled it going back and forth for sunflower seeds.

  3. I would make Arroyo long man today. And start Asher tomorrow. Won’t happen but that is what I would do.

  4. WhiteSox sign Luis Robert. I am glad it wasn’t STL.

  5. Lets see.Since our pen is still over worked will Price ride Aldeman longer then he should just like he did Bonilla.My guess is that the Rockies hope he does.Tune in.

  6. You really just have to laugh at how bad our starting pitching is right now.Boy if we are trying to lose now and win later on we are sure doing great at the first part.

  7. Yeah we take strike 3 and they take ball 4.

    • If it’s not exactly where you want it, why swing on a close pitch with two strikes and a runner on third? Oh wait, now I remember… because it’s professional baseball.

  8. We must be the most undisciplined,non thinking and just outright in la la land team in baseball.Two on,one run in,the pitcher can’t throw strikes and our pitcher bunts into a out at third on the first pitch and Billy makes an out on the next pitch.Inning over back in the filed and nobody really knows what just happened.I hate bunting and I hate swinging at the first pitch.

  9. We’ve seen some good fielding by both teams today.

    I think that seven pitch inning in the top of the third was very helpful

  10. Joey with a double play grounder with runners on the corners.This is a big big inning for Aldeman to get through.

    • Shame. Because he’s had two hard hit balls today that went for out and a good AB for his bloop single. Overall, he looks locked in but BABIP is down

  11. Blackman with and 0-2 pitch single.Bounce one up there.

  12. Of course he steals second and Mes throws it away and they score on a grounder.At least we led an inning today.I am gone.

  13. If Arenado was playing in New York or Boston, his face would be plastered everywhere by the New York-based national media. As much as Jeter was in his prime, but moreso now with 24/7 social media.

  14. Please make it stop.

  15. It won’t because we walk guys and give up hits on 0-2.They of course are hitting with two outs and RISP and we look at strike 3 and ground into DP’S.

  16. Does Drew Storen lead the majors in HBP per innings? Sheesh dude. You got like 3ft to work with

  17. Bloodbath…

  18. In all my years of following Reds baseball (and they are many), I don’t remember a time when three poorly played balls — Schebler, Cozart and now Duvall — have had such an impact on a long losing streak in the way we have seen in the past week. No doubt there are more such instances, but I can’t recall them.

  19. I get it, this is knee jerk in lieu of the current losing streak, but I keep hearing that “when our starters get healthy” hopefully things will improve.

    By my count there are two mlb exeperienced starter missing from this lineup. By the looks of things, the Reds need an additional two MLB starters coming back from DL.

    It’s a long season, and there are ups and downs with young pitching, but it’s hard to see that silver lining with this young group.

    I feel like I’m watching the pitching version of Drew Stubs in these pitchers. Have the tools, but not the right mind

  20. Today is literally Coors Field on the Riverfront.

    Great comeback, but this game is still far from over.

  21. Wojciechowski is throwing strikes! I hope all of the other pitchers are watching!

    • Yes. Every pitcher should be paying attention. Rare as gold in the Ohio river to see a pitcher on this team throw strikes.

  22. Check out the USA flag. The stars are on top right not top left. Or am I just brain dead from the losing.

    • It’s worn like that because that’s how the flag will be seen when running into war. Imagine somebody carrying the flag and running into a fight. That’s what it will look like. Not a dumb question. Most people don’t care.

  23. Thom’s man crush on Wojciechowski is getting a little silly. But, hey, we’re back on top after that monster inning and playing add-on, so who am I to complain?

    • man crush jealous that it isn’t Votto he is dreaming of?

      • 28-year old drafted first 7 years ago … I’m happy he got the job done and did throw strikes, but I don’t expect him to be around for very long.

    • He was just thrilled to see a pitcher throwing strikes. I fully endorse his admiration.

Comments are closed.

About Matt Wilkes

Growing up just north of Cincinnati, Matt has been a Reds fan for as long as he can remember. As a kid, he was often found leading the Reds to 162-0 seasons in MVP Baseball 2005 and imitating his favorite players (Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, Sean Casey, and Austin Kearns) in the backyard. One of his earliest baseball memories is attending the final night game at Cinergy Field. Matt is also a graduate of The Ohio State University and currently lives in the Dayton area. Follow him on Twitter at @_MattWilkes.


Game Thread


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