2017 Reds

Core Piece or Tradable Asset?

Acquired at the trade deadline from the San Francisco Giants on July 31, 2015 (along with right-handed pitcher Keury Mella) in a trade for pitcher Mike Leake, Louisville native and former Louisville Cardinal Adam Duvall spent most all of 2016 entrenched as the Reds everyday left fielder and clean-up hitter.  Add to that an All Star selection, a respectable showing during the Home Run Derby, and a finalist for a Gold Glove, and by all accounts, Duvall’s first full major league season could be considered a success.

Adam Duvall Stats

So far in 2017, Duvall has continued to grow and solidify his position not only in the field and in the line-up, but also within the organization.  Already 28 years old, Duvall could certainly be considered to be within his prime.  Some questions still to be answered include:  Is he settling into a consistent 30+ homer threat?  Will his OBP and SLG continue to rise?

Still two years away from arbitration (2019) and controllable through 2022, the current version of Duvall, both with the glove and the bat, is proving to be an asset to Bryan Price on a nightly basis.  Off to a good start, his current projections are below:

Duvall Projections 2017

The question then for Dick Williams becomes not what does a line-up with Duvall look like today, but depending on the timeline, does the next championship contending line-up include Duvall?

If the answer to the question of when does this team expect to contend is within the next couple of years, then perhaps holding onto a (then) 30 year old in his prime right handed power hitter makes sense.  But…if the team is taking a more long-term approach and is thinking that the next window is realistically up to five years away, that (then) 33 year old right handed slugger could perhaps better be utilized as another current tradable asset for younger talent that could become a part of that longer timeline.

Right now, as I see it, is not really the right time to answer this question.  Off to a respectable start in 2017 with a pitching staff still finding its way (and not to mention missing three-fifths of the projected rotation), this year’s Reds have continued to integrate recent acquisitions into the everyday line-up (see Peraza, Jose and Schebler, Scott).  Minor league outfielders Jesse Winker and Phillip Ervin have both been brought up for a cup of coffee and to experience their first taste of the majors, but at this point neither have proven that they have mastered their craft at Louisville.  Aside from Louisville, let us also not forget the talent further down the system in the way of Taylor Trammell, T.J. Friedl, and Aristides Aquino among others.  Perhaps as we move into the summer a more defined outlook for the future composition of the outfield will become apparent, but for right now, the alignment of Duvall, Billy Hamilton, and Schebler seems safe.

Looking ahead into this summer and into next off season, it’s not hard to imagine Williams asking himself the same “are they core pieces or tradable assets?” question about Hamilton, Schebler, third baseman Eugenio Suarez, and even some members of the current pitching staff.  Are the pieces we have now likely to develop into a team capable of competing for a championship?  What current players on the 40 man roster are desirable to other teams so that we may better strengthen any organizational weaknesses?

At this point, and to paraphrase Marty, “these things tend to have a way of working themselves out.”

Until then, let’s continue to enjoy this season for what it is and for what it still might become (you have to love May optimism).  For all we know, the foundation for the core of the next contending Reds team may already be in place.

56 thoughts on “Core Piece or Tradable Asset?

  1. That is the $64,000 question on Duvall. What the Reds have to realize is that Duvall is not a #4 hitter for the lineup. I see him more as a solid #6, but the Reds have a plethora of #6-#8 hitters as it is. Peraza hit his stride in the #7 hole, while the C will bat 8th. Schebler is a #6 or #7 hitter. Suarez looks good at #5. They are just lacking a better, more solid bat for the #4 spot.

    • Schebler and Duvall are both right now 5 hole hitters, look at the numbers. They are both well above average. Suarez is definitely a 5 hole hitter. So, if they bat 4-6 that is just fine. If the reds get a true 4 even better.

  2. At the start of this rebuild, all I kept hearing, all the Reds kept telling us fans was that this rebuild would be a 2 or 3 year process (maybe 4 yrs at the most) which would mean that we should be coming up upon that next window of contention VERY soon. IF, this process takes another 5 yrs (or anywhere close to that) I’ll be pretty ticked. Now, in saying this I wanna let it be known that I fully understand that you ARE NOT saying that this rebuild will indeed take another 5 yrs. I also fully understand that the Reds organization has not officially (or maybe even unofficially) said that this rebuild would be that much longer. And lastly, I wanna let it be known that I fully believe that the Reds will not be rebuilding for the next 5 yrs and that we are on the verge of contending VERY soon (probably even this year). All I AM saying is that that would be a crappy move by Dick to extend this process another 5 yrs.

  3. Just leave Duvall alone. He won’t get you much with his history of low OBP. Let him grow into a stud. If he ever learns how to walk, he’ll be dangerous.

  4. Core piece. The Reds have been searching for years to find an everyday left fielder and now they have one. He is steadily getting better and the team is playing better than it has in the past. Not to mention his cheap price tag and the fact that we control him for the next handful of years. This team will be competitive soon. Why trade him now?

      • Part of the answer will hinge on what other MLB-ready outfielders the Reds have. If somebody is good enough to displace him, he’ll probably be displaced. I don’t consider that likely anytime soon, given his power and defense.

  5. This is a very tough decision for the FO. I love what Duvall brings, solid + defense and power. If were not going for it in 18′ or at least 19′ then trading him might bring us the maximum value. I’m one who wouldn’t mind us trading for a #1 or #2 pitcher and speeding up the process of going for it.

    The Reds offense has been spectacular so far ranked #2 in NL with Runs scored and #3 in all of mlb.

    • A #1 or #2 pitcher would be hard to get in a trade. Duvall alone wouldn’t bring that.

      • I meant, maybe we should keep duvall and go for it in 18′ & 19′ by trading for a #1.

  6. Unless you get blown away with an offer then he is a core piece.He is what he is and that he hits homers and plays defense.If he improves his OBP to the 320/330 range then you have a stud for a few years.Half of our line up(Duvall,Schebler,Peraza and Suarez) are first or second year players in the big leagues and Mesoraco is back after two years so he has something to prove.Hard to make an evaluation right now on anybody but again I feel Duvall is a keeper in left field.He may be a late bloomer or a guy that has taken advantage of his chance.He could be very productive for 4 or 5 more years.

  7. I’m not sure he’s a core piece, but I can’t see the fan base putting up with waiting another 5 years. That would basically show no faith in all the arms they have amassed in AA and AAA. In 2018 they should be able to put out a rotation that doesn’t rely on retreads (Arroyo), fillers (Adleman), and journeymen (Feldman), and the offense should be solid going forward.

    Bailey
    Finnegan
    Reed
    Stephenson
    Desclafani
    Garrett
    Romano
    Davis
    Castillo
    Mahle

    Out of those 10 guys, we should be able to cobble together 5 healthy pitchers to field a competitive team to go with a very solid bullpen and offense. Even then, there would still be guys like Adleman, Jackson Stephens, and Keury Mella to use in spot start scenarions and higher upside guys like Vlad Gutierrez, Scott Moss, Tony Santillan, and potentially the #2 overall pick (Hunter Greene, Kyle Wright, Brendan McKay) in the pipeline for the future. Not to mention Nick Senzel waiting in the wings to help the offense.

  8. The injuries and young pitchers struggles this year are certainly in stark contrast to that 2012 rotation who started 161/162 games I believe. What an accomplishment.

    The Disco and Finnegan injuries can’t be overstated. They were a crucial part of this rebuild. To be optimistic..Garrett will be back soon and looks like a core piece. I get the sense Price, Mack Jenkins and Ted power are working intensely with Stephenson in side bullpens to get him ready for his starting chance. He’s the only young guy who hasn’t been sent down. If Garrett and Stephenson are 2/5 of the rotation from June thru October and pitching well…things are looking very good for this rebuild. I’m going with that.

    Not everyone succeeds. Reed might be a bullpen guy. Andrew Miller once was a young struggling starter. The Reds need a dominant lefty in the pen to join Iggy and Lorenzen.

    • Cingrani is making that case this year. I like his approach (prior to injury but shoot which Reds Pitcher has not been injured?)

      I look forward to him finishing what he started this year

    • Peralta looks pretty dominant to me….or atleast has the talent for the late innings!

  9. Duvall is a core piece until somebody better comes along. Hows that for a hedge? Regardless, I think this is accurate. There is a lot of talk on this site about how the Cardinals do thing. Given how they handled the likes of David Freese and Alan Craig probably most notably among others, that’s how they’d likely view Duvall.

    The Reds look to be far enough along in their cycle that they shouldn’t be moving Duvall only for prospects several years away. He should bring somebody who is going to come immediately onto the MLB roster and contribute; and, depending exactly who that guy is, perhaps there should be solid prospect also coming with him.

    • And, obviously, the Reds would have to believe that the guy(s) they got in return would be more help than Duvall is.

      • Yes. The Reds are at point now where the Doctors’ oath “do no harm” in regard to the current MLB team should be their mantra in trades. The net needs to be an overall plus on the field at the MLB level for them.

    • WInker just had his first extra base hit in weeks for Lville the other night. Duvall isn’t going anywhere! His swing is pretty short and the ball jumps off his bat! The Reds were getting shutdown by Cole from the Pirates the other night and Duvall hit a 3 run HR to deep left-center and it didn’t even look like he even got all of it! Not to mention…his defense is pretty good. Now Schebler’s swing is kind of loopy and he looks like he could might be a platoon guy down the road but he also has some of the best bat speed/power on the team! If it took Schebler/Stephenson to bring in a reliable starter type then I could live with that!

      • I would rather have Schebler and Stephenson. This is not the final product for either of them. If they bring back value you cannot turn down (Mike Trout) well then everyone is traceable.

        But as Jim says above, do no harm. We can win with these guys when we have our starting rotation back.

        From there, it is selective upgrade where we improve the roster

  10. The time for selling major league assets for prospects might be over. This team is on the upswing. By my estimation, Duvall is the best left fielder they’ve had since Adam Dunn (even if he has limitations). He is in his prime and controllable for many years to come. Dick Williams talks a lot about the life cycle of teams. The past several years has been all about trading players that won’t be around for the next contending team. Even if the Reds aren’t ready this year, virtually every key player on the team will be here for several more years. The life cycle has evolved. It’s becoming apparent that the offense players and relief pitchers needed to compete are already in place. What this team needs is to figure out who are the major league ready starters. At this point or at some point in the near future, the Reds are likely looking at a trade of prospects to gain a MLB starting pitcher as well as a free agent signing of a 2nd MLB starting pitcher. That depends on how some of the current starting pitching prospects pan out this year, but it’s not necessary at this point to dump MLB players for any reason. I’m not sure that Zach Cozart will even be on the block if the Reds are still competing at the All-Star break.

  11. Duvall is another current tradable asset for younger talent that could become a part of that longer timeline.

    I’m tired of the rebuilding and waiting another three or four years. Its time to focus on the present and try to win now. The problem with the younger talent is you don’t know how they’ll pan out. I know what we have with Duvall. We also have the hitters and bullpen. Let’s do what it takes to make the SP better this year!

    • It’s all relative. A team that is more sure of competing right now than the Reds are might pay more heavily for a guy like Duvall, especially with years of team control remaining. All GMs aren’t going to see the same potential in a player. I kinda don’t envy the decision Williams has to make, and I hope Duvall keeps making it a harder decision by continuing to produce.

      Williams’ task is twofold: Getting the Reds to contend, and then having enough resources to keep them in contention year in and year out rather than having to break everything down and suffer two or three straight 68-win seasons and rebuilding.

  12. He’s a modern Dave Kingman who’s trade value is limited due to some serious red flags. He wouldn’t garner that much in a trade so they might as well keep him and hope the walk rate increases over time. If he does improve, he’s a core piece of a good team. If not, he’s a guy that hits some home runs while making an out 75% of the time.

    • Kingman with bat, but my recollection is that Kingman was a defensive liability. Duvall most certainly is not.

  13. Holy Bat Roster…

    For the last 3 games, Winker has been hitting in the #2 hole, but hold on to your wishbone C’s…

    Today Winker not only hit in the #2 hole, but he played CF.

    Is DeShields still managing the Bats?

  14. Duvall’s got four more years of team control, there may be a time to deal him but I can’t see it anytime soon. Considering they got him for a few week loaner, it’s all gravy at this point.

    To me, I’d say Suarez is the guy you want to sign him to a contract through the rest of his pre-free agent years and try to get an extra season like the Reds did with Cueto and Jay Bruce etc.

    Adam Duvall can be Dave Kingman all he likes as long as the Reds get Kong’s 1979.

    • I’m old enough to remember Kingman and he was a one-dimensional slug. Duvall is pretty good in the outfield and hustles enough to have average speed. I don’t remember Kingman hitting a single up the middle to bring a guy in with 2 outs either. He was a lifetime .236 hitter and I think Duvall will be atleast a .260ish hitter with his compact swing. Unfortunately he’s no George Foster either but he’s pretty good! Better by far that we kept him then Todd Frazier!

      • Adam Duvall==.240 career batting average. A .295 career OBP. On most teams, a #6 or #7 hitter. Certainly not a #4 clean up hitter. Just don’t miscast Duvall as something that he is not, and that is as a middle of the lineup hitter.

  15. 4.5 more years of control, slightly above average offensive LF, very above average defensive LF, costs peanuts, still improving. I would have to be pretty blown away in a trade to move him. Not because I’m enamored with him, but just typing those things generically demonstrates his value.

    • 33 hrs/103 rbis last year and on pace for 40+/120+ and thats slightly above average? Those kind of numbers used to win MVPs before the roid era! I get that rbis are kind of a skewed statistic because opportunities vary so much from team to team but thats a excellent year either way!

      • Isolated Power….Duvall is 16th in baseball, 8th best Outfielder, and 2nd best Leftfielder! Joey is 11th, Schebler 18th, and Suarez is 27th

  16. I sure had doubts about Williams, a legacy guy, a banker, all of that. But he’s done many things right (not that I would have a clue about how to run a baseball team). The biggest signal is that he sat quietly and absorbed the game without getting sucked in to the groupthink mentality that does everything by the book. He is my biggest reason for optimism about the future of this franchise.

  17. I think the answer in the Reds outfield corners lies in the question of versatility. Duvall, Schebler, Winker and Ervin have all mostly played in the corners. There is not room on a 25 man roster for 4 players who can only play LF or RF. Can any of those 4 be a reliable back up CF? Can any of them reasonably back up 1B or 3B?

    • Ervin can be a solid backup CF, but some aren’t sure if he’d be a good every day guy there.

  18. When are the Cincinnati Reds going to address fan behavior at GABP? I hate to agree with Paul Daugherty, but this Woooooo thing has got to go. It is annoying. It is a huge embarrassment. What a disgrace Reds “fans” made of themselves on national TV during the Reds-Yankees game on FS1 Tuesday night. And it is only a few, handful of “fans” that are ruining the game experience for everyone else. These drunk punk millennials have no respect for anyone.
    How do these Wooos add to the fan experience at GABP??
    They don’t, they take away from it. So why is it allowed to continue??

    • Who cares? Everyone talking about it only calls more attention to it and perpetuates it. Just ignore it and it will fade away. Harp on it and its always in the forefront

      • Watching from home, I rate the Woooooos on an 80 pt scale just for fun. They get bonus pts if TB or CW makes a comment about it.

    • If more fans filled the seats at GABP, their physical mass would dampen the wooos into imperceptibility. Why aren’t more fans going to the games?

    • How exactly should the Reds stop ” the woo”?
      Its not profanity. It’s not racist, sexist, homophobic. It’s obnoxious and stupid, but I doubt it actually keeps people away.

    • WVREDLEGS: Agree with you and PDoc 1,000% whether it’s at GABP, PNC, or wherever. I did read the article, but couldn’t get into the comments; hope they are all in agreement with us.

      CHUCK SCHICK: Think back to the Power Stack Pack at GABP in 2013. A couple of drunk Cardinals fans complained to an usher (so I’ve read) about the PSP being offensive and hurting their feelings. “Jon Jay — 2 first names!” Ownership/management quickly stepped in (or on) to quell the PSP’s cheerleading activities so as not to offend any more guests at GABP. Just like the woo, the PSP was not, nor is profane, racist, etc., but they sure got hit with limiting their in-game performances. With some well-founded complaints to GABP officials, I don’t see why the woos could not significantly be reduced.

  19. Here’s what I’ve been thinking……the next good Reds team has an outfield roster of Hamilton, Duvall, Schebler, WInker, and Ervin. Billy plays everyday, Duvall 4 out of 5 days, and the other 3 platoon, fill in off days, PH, etc. No real studs except Billy, but no need to get rid of any of them. All of them bring something offensively, and every good team needs a deep bench. Duvall and Scheb give you the power, Winker OBP, and Ervin the speed. Maybe not the greatest offensive outfield ever assembled, but its ours, its young, lets roll with them and see what can happen. We’ve got no good reason to believe that a trade (realistic return) will make us better in the next 2 years.

  20. No Red on the 25 or 40 man roster should be deemed untouchable. Let’s face it, if a deal comes along that includes Duvall, Dick Willaims should get it done if it helps the club.

    The only player that I consider untouchable is Nick Senzel at this time.

    • I tend to agree with you. The problem becomes, at some point the organization will have to make the decision of when tomorrow becomes today and the future is now vice down the road.

      • Hi Adam, if some GM knocks on Dick Williams door today offering a player(s) for any Red(s) not named Senzel, that can help this ball club now or in the near future, he should make that deal.

    • You bring up an interesting player as an untouchable, Doofus. Nick senzel is a mionor league player the Old Cossack follows on virtually a daily basis. As a #2 overall selection in the 1st round of the rule 4 draft and coming out of college with a plethora of accolades, Senzel has received a lot of attention and his play has certainly justified that attention. Since being drafted, Senzel has a career slash of .297/.381/.479 with a slick .860 OPS and a .954 FPCT playing 3B. As a 21-year-old player in A+ this season, Senzel has aquitted himself nicely with a slash of .284/.348/.418 and a .767 OPS, well above league average.

      #2 overall selections with solid minor league performances get a lot of attention and deservedly so. Sometimes don’t begin their minor league careers as #2 overall selctions coming out of a major college baseball program. Some players begin their careers drafted out of high school as, oh say, an anonymous 12th round selection as a catcher and spend 2 seasons in ROK ball playing catcher before converting to a full time 2B and finally getting a sniff of full-season A ball. Yet such a player might put up an anonymous OPS of .836 & .842 in his 1st 2 seasons of A & A+ ball with a slash of .299/.357/.474 and a sizzling .832 OPS as a 21-year-old with a career .971 FPCT as a 2B in A+ ball this season.

      Stories of two 21-year-old infielders playing for A+ Daytona Tortugas, Nick Senzel and Shed Long. We hear a lot of noise about Herrera and Peraza as middle IF for the future, but Shed Long may be creating a new discourse regarding the future middle infield for the Reds.

      • Funny, everyday I also look to see what Senzel did the previous game. Last night 2 for 4, Hr, 2B, 4 RBI’s.

        Shed Long is showing something. From what I hear he needs to work on his ‘D’.

        I’m not sold on Herrera.

      • I’m intrigued by Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo. I read where Mahle had a no hitter last year also.

  21. Is it me, or did the Reds get virtually nothing in return for Chapman and Bruce?

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