2017 Reds

Reds vs Yankees – May 9, 2017

Tonight the Reds will try  to gain a series split as they conclude this two games series against the Yankees and wrap up a 9 game homestand. The good news is that no matter what happens tonight, this has been a positive homestand for our favorite home team. Depending on what transpires tonight at GABP, the Reds will finish the homestand at either 7-2 or 6-3. A Reds team which limped home at 11-12 on the season after a disastrous 1-5 road trip will hit the road no worse than 1 game over .500. Maybe it is because things are starting to get better that bumps in the road like last night feel a little harder than when we knew all hope was gone.

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Starting Pitchers

Reds

Righthander Tim Adleman makes the start for the Reds tonight. In three previous starts in 2017, Adelman has pitched a total of 17.1 innings making him an almost 6 inning pitcher. As a starter Adleman strikes out nearly 4 batters for every batter he walks. His WHIP is a marginal 1.27. But fly balls hit off of Adleman find their way over the wall at an above league average rate. Thus while his xFIP says maybe he is a back of the rotation grinder, his FIP and innings per start rate suggest  looking  elsewhere.

Yankees

Veteran lefty CC Sabathia will start for the Yankees. Once upon a time Sabathia was one of the premier pitchers in MLB as his career 63.3 fWAR total attests.  But only 3.9 of those fWAR  have come after 2103.  In 6 starts this season, Sabathia has completed 33  innings of work.  Like Adelman, he too is a not quite six inning pitcher at this point in his career. Walks have become a major issue for Sabathia. He has struggled mightily in his last two starts, completing just 9.2 total innings while allowing 13 earned runs.

PITCHER xFIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9
Tim Adleman 4.44 2.08 2.08 7.79
CC Sabathia 4.64 1.64 4.09 6.82

Bullpens

Neither of the current Reds “A team”, Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen, were used last night. Robert Stephenson should be ready if when a long man is needed tonight. Nobody went more than an inning last night. With an off day tomorrow, all other hands are likely on deck except for Drew Storen and Barrett Astin who suffered through nightmarish 30+ pitch innings on Monday.

Ty Clippard and  Tommy Layne each threw an inning for the Yankees on Monday. Aroldis Chapman and the rest of the crew should be ready and willing tonight.

Lineups

              Yankees

1. Brett Gardner (LF)
2. Gary Sanchez (C)
3. Starlin Castro (2B)
4. Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
5. Aaron Judge (RF)
6. Didi Gregorius (SS)
7. Chris Carter (1B)
8. Ronald Torreyes (3B)
9. CC Sabathia (P)

                 Reds

1. Billy Hamilton (CF)
2. Zack Cozart (SS)
3. Joey Votto (1B)
4. Adam Duvall (LF)
5. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
6. Scott Schebler (RF)
7. Jose Peraza (2B)
8. Devin Mesoraco (C)
9. Tim Adleman (P)

Final Thoughts 

Hopefully the Reds will score early and many then later and even more. That way we can  enjoy watching Yankees rookie sensation Aaron Judge instead of having to gnash our teeth and sweat bullets every time he comes to the plate.

Fangraphs’ prediction software says there is a 52.2% chance that the Yankees will win tonight.  I wonder how much if any  of that projection is based on CC Sabathia’s reputation versus Tim Adleman’s instead of the relevant current numbers?

Go Reds! Find a way to tie a fancy Reds ribbon around the wrap up of an excellent homestand!

Stats and related information from Fangraphs, MLB, and Baseball Reference

108 thoughts on “Reds vs Yankees – May 9, 2017

  1. A few days ago I complained about Duvall swinging at (and popping up) what would have been ball one after watching the pitcher walk the three guys ahead of him. Today he swings and misses what would have been ball one after watching the two guys ahead of him walk on 8 pitches. Does Price have no control over these guys, or does he think this is a perfectly reasonable approach? Either way, this is a problem.

    • I’m sure Price has a ton of control over the plate discipline of a guy who strikes out 25% of the time and walks about 6%. Duvall is what he is.

  2. Since managers have unlimited power and since Major League Baseball players (millionaires backed by the strongest union in the world) will just do what they’re told, I can’t believe Giradi hasn’t made Chapman a starter.

    • Chapman is a headcase who won’t do it now under any circumstances. Remember he complained when the Stupid Cubs pitched him 2 full innings last Fall. I for one am glad we’re rid of him.

      • In Chapman’s defense, he was completely gassed by game 7 and he seemingly does become less effective the longer he pitches.

        • True enough … but in the WS you do whatever you need to do. And you don’t whine about it.

          • Chapman does not have the pitching chops to be a starter and I think the Reds figured that out pretty early on and just went with what he could do. You got to have a bit of guile to make it work as you can’t go 105% every pitch and you have to do the other parts of the job like hold runners and field the position as a starter – those skills he does not have. Chapman is more of a blunt force instrument, effective but that’s what he can do.

          • I’ve thought that all along. And I’m glad we didn’t see him other than a brief bullpen warm up in this series.

          • When Chapman was a Red he was hit flush in the face by a line drive and a month later he was back pitching like nothing ever happened. 4 All star game appearances, a zillion saves, a WC ring, millions in the bank, and a star in the big apple. Some “head case”.

  3. Most of the time are team is in full blown attack mode.Doesn’t seem to me much thought regarding what the pitcher is doing or has been doing in the game up to that point.Its just see the ball and hit it.It works sometimes but other times its a head scratcher.The argument is always but it was a strike.Remember when the pitcher made an out and the next guy would mess around in the batter’s box and then take a couple pitches?Don’t happen much any more and maybe all teams are this way.We only see our guys.

  4. Regardless of what happens here, we’ve got 3 outs to get for a split against the hottest team in MLB. I’ll take a win any way we get it.

  5. The Cincinnati reds are decent… Give them a healthy disco and Finnegan and 1 solid on base guy and they are an 85+ win team…they also are really watchable.

    • It was….this season has been alot of fun so far minus the Thames horror show:(

  6. This game had a very 2016 feel. Get an early lead, the bats go completely quiet, a couple dumb plays here and there, a little bad luck, bullpen looks shaky….and then the inevitable loss. The 2017 team really does seem to be better.

  7. Jumbo (5.52 era) blowing a lead for the Rays in the 8th…..”Thank God and Greyhound….You’re gone”

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