Tonight the Reds will try  to gain a series split as they conclude this two games series against the Yankees and wrap up a 9 game homestand. The good news is that no matter what happens tonight, this has been a positive homestand for our favorite home team. Depending on what transpires tonight at GABP, the Reds will finish the homestand at either 7-2 or 6-3. A Reds team which limped home at 11-12 on the season after a disastrous 1-5 road trip will hit the road no worse than 1 game over .500. Maybe it is because things are starting to get better that bumps in the road like last night feel a little harder than when we knew all hope was gone.

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Starting Pitchers

Reds

Righthander Tim Adleman makes the start for the Reds tonight. In three previous starts in 2017, Adelman has pitched a total of 17.1 innings making him an almost 6 inning pitcher. As a starter Adleman strikes out nearly 4 batters for every batter he walks. His WHIP is a marginal 1.27. But fly balls hit off of Adleman find their way over the wall at an above league average rate. Thus while his xFIP says maybe he is a back of the rotation grinder, his FIP and innings per start rate suggest  looking  elsewhere.

Yankees

Veteran lefty CC Sabathia will start for the Yankees. Once upon a time Sabathia was one of the premier pitchers in MLB as his career 63.3 fWAR total attests.  But only 3.9 of those fWAR  have come after 2103.  In 6 starts this season, Sabathia has completed 33  innings of work.  Like Adelman, he too is a not quite six inning pitcher at this point in his career. Walks have become a major issue for Sabathia. He has struggled mightily in his last two starts, completing just 9.2 total innings while allowing 13 earned runs.

PITCHER xFIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9
Tim Adleman 4.44 2.08 2.08 7.79
CC Sabathia 4.64 1.64 4.09 6.82

Bullpens

Neither of the current Reds “A team”, Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen, were used last night. Robert Stephenson should be ready if when a long man is needed tonight. Nobody went more than an inning last night. With an off day tomorrow, all other hands are likely on deck except for Drew Storen and Barrett Astin who suffered through nightmarish 30+ pitch innings on Monday.

Ty Clippard and  Tommy Layne each threw an inning for the Yankees on Monday. Aroldis Chapman and the rest of the crew should be ready and willing tonight.

Lineups

              Yankees

1. Brett Gardner (LF)
2. Gary Sanchez (C)
3. Starlin Castro (2B)
4. Jacoby Ellsbury (CF)
5. Aaron Judge (RF)
6. Didi Gregorius (SS)
7. Chris Carter (1B)
8. Ronald Torreyes (3B)
9. CC Sabathia (P)

                 Reds

1. Billy Hamilton (CF)
2. Zack Cozart (SS)
3. Joey Votto (1B)
4. Adam Duvall (LF)
5. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
6. Scott Schebler (RF)
7. Jose Peraza (2B)
8. Devin Mesoraco (C)
9. Tim Adleman (P)

Final Thoughts 

Hopefully the Reds will score early and many then later and even more. That way we can  enjoy watching Yankees rookie sensation Aaron Judge instead of having to gnash our teeth and sweat bullets every time he comes to the plate.

Fangraphs’ prediction software says there is a 52.2% chance that the Yankees will win tonight.  I wonder how much if any  of that projection is based on CC Sabathia’s reputation versus Tim Adleman’s instead of the relevant current numbers?

Go Reds! Find a way to tie a fancy Reds ribbon around the wrap up of an excellent homestand!

Stats and related information from Fangraphs, MLB, and Baseball Reference

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Twitter: @jn_walkerjr

Join the conversation! 108 Comments

  1. It has been many years since I’ve seen Sabathia pitch. Will be interesting to see what he still has.

    Maybe Billy and Jose try for bunt hits tonight since Sabathia isn’t looking very athletic in his “old” age.

    • He did not look athletic in his young age but he did move like a cat.

      He has always looked like and offensive tackle

    • I saw Sabathia pitch against Price in August of 2011. He looked huge even from the stands. He struck out a bunch of guys but gave up four or five solo homers.

  2. This game is a microcosm of the season.
    Go back to Opening Day and ask….Adelman vs Sabathia???? That’s a 9-1 loss.
    I still think it is…. but if this team finds a way…it sort of validates that first 32 games and the next 32 games. I’m watching.

    • Vegas thinks its pretty even. -108 NYY

    • Old man Sabathia in GABP? Of course the new Yankee Stadium is a launching pad too but the Reds should beat on the old-timer tonite! With CCs big slider dipping down & away on lefties, it does seem like Kivlehan should be in RF but I still think the Reds get a 7-5 win tonite!

  3. I am hoping for 6 innings of three or four run baseball from Adelman. I think that the bullpen can shut the Yankees out with some run support and we roll onto the road trip with a win.

  4. Looks like we start from behind again tonight.

    • Man their lineup is scary! All the young guys have rejuvenated Castro, Ellsbury, etc

      • It’s hard to believe but Castro is only 27. He has close to 1200 hits already. At that pace he could get 3000

  5. The game is on Fox Sports 1 for those that didn’t know

  6. Another wasted opportunity just like yesterday.

  7. Adleman….sign him up for HR derby. Jeez?

  8. Can’t stand to listen to O’Neil anymore. He does nothing but ridicule the Reds players. I watch alot of Yankee games here in NY and he usually isn’t this bad. Must be still pissed about Reds trading him.

  9. None of us expect the 4 starters we have going to do much.The Reds leadership doesn’t expect it either.All are 4 or 5 inning guys that give up about the same number of runs.

  10. The Reds hitting prospects stay in the minors while the Yankees stick 3 in their lineup and mash. Aren’t the Reds supposed to be doing the young guy thing instead of the deep pocket Yankees?

    • Sanchez was in the minors for 6 years. Judge was drafted after his junior year in college and stayed in the minors 3 full years. You aren’t comparing apples to apples.

  11. With Sabathia on the mound there’s plenty of time to come back, but this Reds rotation is tough to watch.

  12. Schebler no fear against sabathia..crushed that….schebler is really hitting well and sorting himself in the mix

  13. Wouldn’t it be cool if the ball stuck to the Gorilla Tape sign behind home plate?

  14. Sabathia has walked a bunch but we won’t make him throw strikes.

  15. BILLY!! 2 run single!!

  16. This 2017 reds team is different. They compete. Not sure how many wins that means….but light years ahead. Go reds.

    • It’s gotta do wonders for the psyche knowing that the bullpen can actually hold late leads. Last year, even if they scored 10 runs, it was like “What’s the point? We’re still going to lose.”

      If the Reds can get 3 or 4 young starters to pan out and fill the gaps through trade and free agency, they could be scary good very soon.

  17. Billy coming up clutch with that hit, hopefully we can do some more damage here.

  18. Hope everyone took the over

  19. You said it all Jeremy.

  20. You get 5 runs then walk the pitcher leading off…oy

  21. Is it just me or are these two of them most low energy announcers I have ever heard?

  22. Another worthless Peraza at bat…swings at high inside ball and hits a 12 year old pop up to the 2b….

  23. The stat boys don’t think rbis or hitting with runners in scoring position matters but Duvall is now hitting .297 with 3 HRs with risp! I think its sort of important….call me crazy:)

  24. Game on FS1, thanks to the Yankees. I feel like I’m big time.

  25. Adleman isn’t very good. He has heart but not enough talent.

    • I’d be ok with him as a #5 starter.

      But only if there’s no one else available. If Adleman is the Reds’ #5 in 2019, something went wrong with the rebuild along the way.

  26. Big time DP there.

  27. Well, that one wasn’t on a homer. There’s that.

  28. The Reds are going to beat the Yankees.
    Tim adleman is going to win.
    All of us are going to say…yeah…but….

  29. O’Neil is wrong about Machado v. Trout, but jeez, the Yanks guys just had a semi-intelligent discussion about WAR.

    • I was actually in agreement with him, just because of the position(s) Machado plays. But, it’s not like you could go wrong with any of the 4

      • Now I feel like I missed part of the conversation due to toddlers. Machado and Donaldson are different types of players but they were neck and neck in value last year. I don’t think Trout really has a peer.

  30. I’d go to Lorenzen or Peralta pretty quick here if I was Price. They just had a shutout the other day so the pen is fresh!

  31. Red Sox just got “Thamesed” in Milwaukee.

  32. We will need to score a few more runs to win this one.

  33. Nice bunt for Gardner.

  34. Mez just took 2 shots to the head from the bat of Judge….not good

  35. 4.44 era for Adleman. Thats not that bad for our park. If Arroyo & Rookie were at 4.44 we’d be 3 games ahead in the division.

  36. I know Lorenzen is an above average hitting pitcher, but they should double switch Alcantara int place of Peraza

  37. Lorenzen is like a box of chocolates …. geeze !

  38. Wow. This is a struggle this inning. Lorenzen is all over the place.

    • Adleman gets the win..the Reds beat the Yankees…lorenzen and Iglesias seal it…it’s happening. Then an off day. The Reds are sniffing first place. All is right with the world

  39. Sabathia needed only 17 pitches to get through innings 5 and 6.Had him out of there early if only a little more patience

  40. Whatever magic Lorenzen had at the start of the season, he seems to have lost some of it recently.

  41. Lorenzen with a 4 pitch walk to Gardner.Just asking for trouble when you do that.

  42. 1 more out please…..Lorenzen is a mess tonite as noted!

  43. He got it but WOW.

  44. Lorenzen hasn’t pitched in 5 days so he was a little rusty I think.

  45. Betances is unhittable when he throws strikes.He is a beast.

    • Can you imagine Betances in the eighth and then Chapman in the ninth? Unbelievable.

      • Yeah….and the reds still win.
        Lorenzen and Iglesias are right there with Yankees. This is nasty boys part 2.
        Reds need cingrani( or my choice Finnegan) to play Charlton.

        Iglesias.Lorenzen and Finnegan could be BETTER than nasty boys V1.

  46. Talk about getting out of trouble.

  47. That may have been the only time I would have had Duvall to bunt em over and Suarez squeeze a run in.Betances is nasty.

  48. Remember when they also had Andrew Miller.

  49. Kivlehan in right field — very interesting and possibly dangerous move in a close game.

  50. Wow. Two on, no outs and the Reds need at least one run and the meat of the order strikes out.

  51. A few days ago I complained about Duvall swinging at (and popping up) what would have been ball one after watching the pitcher walk the three guys ahead of him. Today he swings and misses what would have been ball one after watching the two guys ahead of him walk on 8 pitches. Does Price have no control over these guys, or does he think this is a perfectly reasonable approach? Either way, this is a problem.

    • I’m sure Price has a ton of control over the plate discipline of a guy who strikes out 25% of the time and walks about 6%. Duvall is what he is.

  52. Mes is getting quite the workout tonight.

  53. Since managers have unlimited power and since Major League Baseball players (millionaires backed by the strongest union in the world) will just do what they’re told, I can’t believe Giradi hasn’t made Chapman a starter.

    • Chapman is a headcase who won’t do it now under any circumstances. Remember he complained when the Stupid Cubs pitched him 2 full innings last Fall. I for one am glad we’re rid of him.

      • In Chapman’s defense, he was completely gassed by game 7 and he seemingly does become less effective the longer he pitches.

        • True enough … but in the WS you do whatever you need to do. And you don’t whine about it.

          • Chapman does not have the pitching chops to be a starter and I think the Reds figured that out pretty early on and just went with what he could do. You got to have a bit of guile to make it work as you can’t go 105% every pitch and you have to do the other parts of the job like hold runners and field the position as a starter – those skills he does not have. Chapman is more of a blunt force instrument, effective but that’s what he can do.

          • I’ve thought that all along. And I’m glad we didn’t see him other than a brief bullpen warm up in this series.

          • When Chapman was a Red he was hit flush in the face by a line drive and a month later he was back pitching like nothing ever happened. 4 All star game appearances, a zillion saves, a WC ring, millions in the bank, and a star in the big apple. Some “head case”.

  54. Most of the time are team is in full blown attack mode.Doesn’t seem to me much thought regarding what the pitcher is doing or has been doing in the game up to that point.Its just see the ball and hit it.It works sometimes but other times its a head scratcher.The argument is always but it was a strike.Remember when the pitcher made an out and the next guy would mess around in the batter’s box and then take a couple pitches?Don’t happen much any more and maybe all teams are this way.We only see our guys.

  55. Regardless of what happens here, we’ve got 3 outs to get for a split against the hottest team in MLB. I’ll take a win any way we get it.

  56. 99 mph from Iggy…..wow!

  57. The Cincinnati reds are decent… Give them a healthy disco and Finnegan and 1 solid on base guy and they are an 85+ win team…they also are really watchable.

  58. wow…nice win

    • It was….this season has been alot of fun so far minus the Thames horror show:(

  59. Whew…been a while since I felt that kinda nailbiter tension at the end of the game.

  60. Love me some Suarez at 3B!!!

    Good night, all …

  61. This game had a very 2016 feel. Get an early lead, the bats go completely quiet, a couple dumb plays here and there, a little bad luck, bullpen looks shaky….and then the inevitable loss. The 2017 team really does seem to be better.

  62. Jumbo (5.52 era) blowing a lead for the Rays in the 8th…..”Thank God and Greyhound….You’re gone”

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