Tonight the Reds will try to gain a series split as they conclude this two games series against the Yankees and wrap up a 9 game homestand. The good news is that no matter what happens tonight, this has been a positive homestand for our favorite home team. Depending on what transpires tonight at GABP, the Reds will finish the homestand at either 7-2 or 6-3. A Reds team which limped home at 11-12 on the season after a disastrous 1-5 road trip will hit the road no worse than 1 game over .500. Maybe it is because things are starting to get better that bumps in the road like last night feel a little harder than when we knew all hope was gone.
A reminder to everyone who normally watches the Reds via FoxSports Ohio or can’t watch the Reds because they are normally on FoxSports Ohio:
— FOX Sports Ohio (@FOXSportsOH) May 9, 2017
While we are doing reminders, here’s another one:
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) May 9, 2017
Righthander Tim Adleman makes the start for the Reds tonight. In three previous starts in 2017, Adelman has pitched a total of 17.1 innings making him an almost 6 inning pitcher. As a starter Adleman strikes out nearly 4 batters for every batter he walks. His WHIP is a marginal 1.27. But fly balls hit off of Adleman find their way over the wall at an above league average rate. Thus while his xFIP says maybe he is a back of the rotation grinder, his FIP and innings per start rate suggest looking elsewhere.
Veteran lefty CC Sabathia will start for the Yankees. Once upon a time Sabathia was one of the premier pitchers in MLB as his career 63.3 fWAR total attests. But only 3.9 of those fWAR have come after 2103. In 6 starts this season, Sabathia has completed 33 innings of work. Like Adelman, he too is a not quite six inning pitcher at this point in his career. Walks have become a major issue for Sabathia. He has struggled mightily in his last two starts, completing just 9.2 total innings while allowing 13 earned runs.
Neither of the current Reds “A team”, Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen, were used last night. Robert Stephenson should be ready
if when a long man is needed tonight. Nobody went more than an inning last night. With an off day tomorrow, all other hands are likely on deck except for Drew Storen and Barrett Astin who suffered through nightmarish 30+ pitch innings on Monday.
Ty Clippard and Tommy Layne each threw an inning for the Yankees on Monday. Aroldis Chapman and the rest of the crew should be ready and willing tonight.
Hopefully the Reds will score early and many then later and even more. That way we can enjoy watching Yankees rookie sensation Aaron Judge instead of having to gnash our teeth and sweat bullets every time he comes to the plate.
Fangraphs’ prediction software says there is a 52.2% chance that the Yankees will win tonight. I wonder how much if any of that projection is based on CC Sabathia’s reputation versus Tim Adleman’s instead of the relevant current numbers?
Go Reds! Find a way to tie a fancy Reds ribbon around the wrap up of an excellent homestand!