2017 Reds / Game Thread

Reds vs. Pirates – May 4th, 2017

Holy dinger! The Reds hit three home runs last night, including one each from haven’t-seen-you-dinger-in-a-while candidates Billy Hamilton and, more importantly, Devin Mesoraco. Rookie Davis was able to gain his first Major League win by the skin of his teeth, walking three and striking out two.

The worst the Reds can do in today’s matinee is walk away with an even series against the Pirates. But, where’s the fun in that?

Starting Pitchers

Name IP ERA xFIP K% BB%
Ivan Nova 36.0 1.50 3.38 16.5% 0.8%
Tim Adleman 15.1 4.70 4.15 24.2% 4.8%

Tim Adleman takes the mound for the Reds today. For the most part, Adleman has been serviceable so far in 2017. He’s striking out nearly a quarter of the batters he’s facing, and his 4.8% walk rate is what you’d like to see from all of your pitchers. For that reason, he’s on the ‘things should get better’ side of the xFIP equation, projecting to progress soon and lower his ERA by over .50 points. We’ll see if he can get a solid run of quality starts strung together today against the Pirates.

No, that’s not a typo. Ivan Nova is currently sporting an 0.8% walk rate, having only surrendered one base on balls in his 36 innings on the mound. Nova has been very good. In fact, he recently took home some hardware as April’s best National League pitcher. The Reds are a top-10 team in terms of OBP, but also feature a few hitters who would seemingly rather get out than take a walk. It’ll be interesting to see how Nova pitches to the red-hot Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Scott Schebler, and Adam Duvall.

The lineups

Pirates Reds
3B Josh Harrison (143 wRC+) CF Billy Hamilton (44 wRC+)
RF John Jaso (50 wRC+) SS Jose Peraza (49 wRC+)
CF Andrew McCutchen (103 wRC+) 1B Joey Votto (139 wRC+)
LF Gregory Polanco (74 wRC+) LF Adam Duvall (122 wRC+)
1B Josh Bell (105 wRC+) 3B Eugenio Suarez (164 wRC+)
C Francisco Cervelli (84 wRC+) RF Scott Schebler (111 wRC+)
2B Alen Hanson (68 wRC+) 2B Arismendy Alcantara (68 wRC+)
SS Gift Ngoepe (204 wRC+) C Tucker Barnhart (70 wRC+)
P Ivan Nova (3.38 xFIP) P Tim Adleman (4.15 xFIP)

Zack Cozart gets the day off today, sending Jose Peraza to shortstop and back up to the #2 hole in the lineup. Arismendy Alcantara will get the start at second. For as bad as Alcantara has seemed, he still has a higher wRC+ than Hamilton and Peraza. For their credit, both speedsters have started to turn things around. Let’s hop all of that continues to happen.

For the Pirates, their best Catcher Francisco Cervelli is back in the starting nine today. He’s been banged up throughout the season, but will get the start behind the plate in game four. Cincinnati’s own Josh Harrison will start the fourth straight game batting leadoff, and will look to continue his good fortune in his hometown.

News and Notes

Final Thoughts

Man, you really like to win games like today’s game. The Reds have a tough test in Ivan Nova, who has been lights out in ’17. The Reds would further distance themselves from last place by winning this game, and therefore the series, and continue the overall positive vibes of the young season.

79 thoughts on “Reds vs. Pirates – May 4th, 2017

    • I like this move. He should have started the year in AAA where he could have gotten some work instead of throwing and inning here and there. Very poor planning of the Reds’s part. Robert Stephenson should be down there also so he can get some work in as well.

  1. Earlier, I was ready to write this game off to the weather. But now I’m not so sure. Rain will be around for much of the day, but I’m seeing breaks that might allow some baseball to be played.

    Normally, I don’t root for a postponement — but going up against Nova, this might not be a bad day for one.

    • Alcantara started slowly, but he has contributed in the last two weeks in his limited appearances.

      He’s now 5-for-14 as a pinch hitter or late-game sub, with a double and a triple.

      Yes, I understand sample sizes. But he’s gone from contributing nothing to contributing something as a utility player and pinch runner/hitter.

  2. I was at the game last night. Reed has no idea where is is pitching the ball. He is wild by feet not inches. He is a thrower not a pitcher. When he does get it over his stuff is not good enough to fool a major league hitter. He should stay in the minors until he proves he belongs. I fear he is a bust and it was easy for KC to trade him to the Reds.

    • Waaaaay too early to call Cody Reed a bust, especially because we’ve seen him dominate major league hitting in short spurts. This is the season where failure is not only expected, but somewhat welcome. A lot of guys can’t succeed in the league without failing at the Major League level.

      Cy Young Award Winner Jake Arietta bounced back and forth from the majors to the minors for SIX SEASONS before he did anything worth noting at the major league level. He was 28 when he ‘figured it out’ in 2014, and 29 when he won the Cy Young the following season.

      Bet the Orioles fans calling him a bust are kicking themselves now.

      • Why not. Robert Stephenson is a bust. Tony Cingrani is a bust. Billy Hamilton is a bust. Peraza, bust. Mesoraco, bust. Cozart, bust. Vote, not an RBI guy. Schebler, bust. Duvall, bust. Cueto, bust. Bailey, bust. Suarez, bust but he may be coming around now. Marty is a bust. Them is a bust. Bryan Price is a bust. Lorenzen is a bust.

        Who did I miss? I guess we keep Amir, Iggy and Tucker and build the team around them

        Win today and we are a 500 broken team

  3. Reds Twitter, as of about 12:28 p.m.:

    Today’s game will not start on time. Further update will be provided when available.

    • Yeah, that’s usually a bad sign.

      The immediate radar situation looks better than it has all day — but there is a lot more coming up from southern KY.

      It seems like a stretch to get five innings in, unless they’re pretty aggressive playing through some moderate rain without any lightning or otherwise severe weather.

  4. So as of today, we have nothing to show for the Cueto trade. One on the DL, one sent to AAA and one already traded.

  5. Alcantara has the only hit through three, not to mention the second best batting average in the lineup today. 😉

  6. Haven’t posted in a while. I’ve been reading a lot. But haven’t had anything interesting to say.

    But I think it’s time for me to tell you all that I have decided to join Mr. Cossack in “abject acceptance’.

    I am enjoying the wins and not busting a gut over the losses.

    Try it, you’ll like it.

    • I like the guy’s hustle. He beat the tag, but then in effect tagged himself out as he reached back for the base. Bad outcome, but love the guy’s hustle.

    • was coming on here to find out, really dumb considering they just took the lead and gave up the first out especially after 2 more batters reach- could have had a huge inning

      • Saw the replay, I guess not so dumb, just a good cut-off and throw, I guess he over slid as it looked like he beat the throw

  7. This is my third or fourth tried posting this in this thread. Sorry for the repeats and other threads

    Haven’t posted in a while. I’ve been reading a lot. But haven’t had anything interesting to say.

    But I think it’s time for me to tell you all that I have decided to join Mr. Cossack in “abject acceptance’.

    I am enjoying the wins and not busting a gut over the losses.

    Try it, you’ll like it.

      • I was shocked too, yeah. … The guy hit a long home run in San Diego last year, but with this year’s approach, didn’t expect it today.

  8. But he swung at the first pitch.Should at least give Billy a pitch or two.

  9. Votto now has 16 extra base hits, 16 walks, and 15 strikeouts.

    That’ll do, Joey. That’ll do.

      • It’s funny, because it took me 4.5 seconds to look up that Votto’s current 13% walk rate is only slightly lower than his 15% career walk rate.

        Marty is so bad.

        Twice this week on my drive home (have to listen to the 1st inning on my phone in the car), Marty called Billy Hamilton “Billy Hatcher.” Twice in two innings of me listening.

        • He’s called Jose Peraza ‘Jose [insert other Central American surname that starts with a P here]’ more times than I can count. Jose Peralta doesn’t exist, Marty.

    • With a .270/.370/.610 line to boot. Oddly enough, his .980 OPS is much higher than his career average, but his 146 wRC+ is 10 points lower. Think that might have something to do with the increased scoring environment this year versus most of Votto’s career.

  10. Price rolled the dice with Adleman pitching to the tieing run.It worked out.Good job on going 6 innings with 2 runs allowed.

  11. Here goes Joey Votto, just like last season, but about two months sooner. Every game his BA is inching up, just small, regular increments at a time. Every game his OBP is making strides up, regular as fine clockwork. Every game his OPS is confounding every known physical law of baseball.

    During his post game interview with Jim Day, Joey had that sheepish grin like ‘I know something no one else knows’. My gosh, Joey Votto may be getting ready to strap this team on his back and take them for a ride.

  12. Alcantara is the man.Good to see him bounce back.For awhile he was really bad at the plate and in the field but he could get a few votes for mayor today.

  13. Good thing the game is moving on with a decent pace. Heavier rain is on the way. Let’s get this bad boy over with.

  14. We’ve got Nova’s number.

    ERA
    vs. Reds: 5.25
    vs. other MLB: 0.9

    Hits per 9 innings
    vs. Reds: 13.5
    vs. other MLB: 5.4

    SO per 9 innings
    vs. Reds: 4.5
    vs. other MLB: 6.3

  15. I don’t know if the rest of the NL has figured it out yet, but Nicasio has certainly taken notice. That walk to Votto was a statement that Votto wasn’t getting another chance to hit while Nicasio was still on the mound.

  16. I thought the same thing especially when he swung on 3-0.Guess they said no more today Mr.Votto.

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