2017 Reds / Big League Ready

One Month Down

A month has now gone by and it seems like a good time to go down the line, look at the numbers and handout grades. For the position players, I give the typical slash line. For the pitchers, I decided to list ERA/FIP/xFIP to give us a sense of what they might do going forward.

 

Pitchers:

Amir Garrett 5.09/4.39/3.65 – Aside from one bad start, Garrett had a truly fabulous beginning to his major league career. xFIP is, generally speaking, the best predictor of what a player will do going forward, but with Garrett, it’s all a matter of how often those blow up outings occur. Grade: B+

Cody Reed 6.00/5.41/3.80 – After many people questioned his abilities last year, Reed has at least shown enough flashes of excellence that we should all believe he has the capacity to be a major league pitcher. The question now is whether his final role will be in the bullpen or the rotation. For now, I’ll put my money on the rotation, but he needs to show genuine consistency at the major league level. Grade: B-

Robert Stephenson 8.71/6.38/4.87 – With Stephenson, so far, it’s been the same thing over and over and over. Control. Control. Control. He has great stuff, but he throws too many pitches. He’s 24, sure, but eventually there have to be results. Grade: D

Rookie Davis 11.17/7.34/5.37 – As bad as he’s been, I feel like Davis is the best candidate to improve. His primary problem has been with control and that has never been an issue with him before. We may be looking at a simple case of nerves stemming from his first major league time, but I suppose he’ll let us know in time. For now, he has to get better, or he’s going to be in Louisville when someone else is healthy. Grade: F

 

Position Players:

Jose Peraza .226/.258/.258 – Terrible is the only word for Peraza’s hitting to this point. He turned 23 yesterday. But still. He’s young enough that, if he does this for another month, the Reds might decide he needs a little more seasoning. Grade: F

Adam Duvall .247/.292/.551 – What we’re seeing from Duvall so far is basically what he did in the first half of last year. Is it enough? I don’t know. There’s a ton of power still, but his control of the strike zone has been somewhat lacking. Grade: C

Scott Schebler .244/.319/.598 – It’s a good reminder of how early it is that Schebler’s numbers a week ago paled in comparison to what we see right now. Given that his BABIP is still only .222, its’ reasonable to assume that his numbers could be even better than they are. Even where they are now, he’s a viable major league starter. If he can keep his OBP around league average and his slugging over .500, he won’t be going anywhere. Grade: B+

33 thoughts on “One Month Down

  1. Or if Schebler keeps using LF like he did on that RBI single yesterday that was a line drive that would have been caught by a SS in their standard positioning without moving. If he keeps using LF, he will be dangerous

  2. Are we back in the roids era? 47 HRs/114 rbi projected for Duvall and that’s only a C? I think he is what he is but that’s not bad! I agree with Peraza…..guy seems to lack a little baseball smarts! How did he not manage to score from 1st yesterday on Barnharts 2 out double? He also didn’t break right away on the double steal attempt in the 9th. I still like him but he needs to pick it up! Schebler is 3x more streaky then Bruce which is crazy but he’s a monster when he’s on!

    • Can you imagine the advance scouts heartburn with Schebler when they watch him play their club ? He’s going to get a scout fired or demoted to the minors.

    • I can tell you this, we are not back in the era when we used HRs and RBI to determine if a player was good or now. Duvall makes too many outs to get an A.

      • We can agree to disagree on Duvall but he’s certainly not Chris Carter…or Mark Trumbo. He plays LF pretty well and hits the ball the other way regularly which makes me think he could improve with the bat atleast somewhat!

        • That would be correct. Trumbo was a better hitter last year .316 .533 .850 with ops+ 121.

          Having said that I think Duval can be a better hitter than Trumbo and is better in the field.

      • I would at least give Davull a C+, maybe B- He has not been bad really. He took a walk in the 9th inning tonight. I was a little impressed honestly. But yeah I wish he took a few more walks but honestly his numbers are not horrible.

      • Yeah, there’s no way he gets an A but there’s also no way he gets a C either. Clearly better than average offensive production (123 wRC+) and at least average in the field. To be fair, he’s at least B- level right now, probably a B.

  3. I agree with your assessments, hoping Schebler gets a little more into defense. And I would not be sorry to see Davis go back to AAA. Its not that I don’t think he has talent, I just don’t think he is ready yet. Time for Stephenson prove he has what it takes.

    • Incomplete grade for Reed/Bob Steve imo….not starting and not relieving often enough to get in a rhythm Reed getting rocked by the Cubs was predictable but lets see him get some other starts? Bob Steve stinks but atleast he has real arm talent unlike Adleman, Arroyo, and Rookie.

  4. Going into last week Schebler was atrocious. I like the way he is adjusting and getting better. Maybe he can show the centerfielder how to take a pitch. F- for Hamilton.

    • Winker’s slash line right now is .268/.349/.324 (.673 OPS). He is not going to wrest a MLB spot from anybody until he gets those numbers up Ervin’s OPS is +180 to Winker’s; and his OPB is only -20 to Winker’s.

      • Schebler was player of the month in May in Louisville last year I believe. I think Winker or Ervin will take a big step forward this month. Maybe this is the year Ervin puts it all together. I want to see another productive outfielder with on-base skills on the 25 man roster. Its got to come from one of those 2 guys.

    • agree with that.. He made a play about a week ago against the Brewers that totally reminded me of Phillips in his best days

  5. I never thought I’d be saying it, but I agree with your statement about Peraza perhaps needing some more seasoning at AAA.

    He is physically strong enough to hit the ball harder, but he takes the extreme contact approach, even in hitter’s counts. This causes super weak contact and leads to easily made defensive plays on anything that isn’t a line drive with perfect launch angle.

    If he had coaching guidance for AAA to use a more traditional swing at 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, for example, and only go to his zero-stride, toss-the-bat swing down 0-1 or with 2 strikes, he might learn some plate discipline.

    This is all just spit-balling, of course. I have no evidence to suggest a swing/approach change would actually make JP better.

  6. Suarez A- imo…..his fielding has improved beyond belief and he’s a tough out! Of course he started hot last year then his swing got long and he quit going the other way. Hopefully he’s figured it out this time!

    • A- may even be too conservative. Considering he has been one of the best NL third baseman in both defense and offense, I’d give him an A+, or at least an A

  7. Cody Reed’s issue is purely mental to me. Before his start, and “atrocious” isn’t strong enough for that start, he had thrown 8 hitless innings. But when he starts, he gets so keyed up that he overthrows everything, typically hitting a spot about 8 inches off the ground and about 6 inches off the plate toward third base. Then, he can’t slow the game down enough to calm down, and digs an ever-deeper hole. I gotta believe that he will get control over his adrenaline shortly, and be fine.

    Rookie Davis is being rushed. He isn’t polished enough, and needs about another 3 months in AAA to be ready. If it wasn’t for Always Injured Bailey, Desclafani and Finnegan all being down, he wouldn’t be here. I would prefer to let Adleman have his starts.

    I can’t understand why Ariel Hernandez is in the minors and Robert Stephenson is in the Reds’ bullpen. Stephenson has a given up 15 hits and 10 BBs in 10.1 innings, mostly in mop-up duty.

    • My feeling is that Rookie projects as the lowest ceiling of the pretenders close enough to be given a shot and is taking one for the team.

      Stephenson needs to be pitching somewhere. He pitched as good in September in MLB as Reed or any of the new young guys except Garrett have done as starters since the regular season began. Put him in the MLB rotation and see what happens; or, send him to AAA and use him as a real reliever or rotation starter.

      • Good call on Rookie! He’s the cannon fodder of the staff along with Adleman & Arroyo. Think of the movie Rudy “Your greatest value to us is that we don’t care if you get hurt”!

      • My thoughts on Stephenson as well and that why I have a problem with the Reds starting Arroyo and Davis. Arroyo and Davis should be long relievers, not starters, on this current Reds team. This is a year for finding out whether Reed and Stephenson can be starters not to see if Arroyo still has it or if Davis might become a #5. The funny thing is even with Bailey, Disco and Finnegan all being out, Reed and Stephenson have all of one start between them. No way Davis who struggled in AAA with his middling stuff should have made this team. This also applies to a lesser extent to Garrett who I am not super high on. It was short sighted for Price to open the rotation up for competition coming in to Spring Training and base his decisions on one month of results.

    • I agree with you on Reed. I said in response to another article that I thought Reed’s problems as a starter were mental, that maybe he has a different mentality out of the bullpen for some reason. Hopefully he can get that fixed and be an effective starter.

  8. Schebler and Duvall are keepers and Reed/Stephenson need to pitch every 5th day starting in June.Winker or Ervin need to be up here in June and if Billy hasn’t got his OBP up over 300 then he goes to the bench.He still has value as a pinch runner or a late inning defensive replacement.Peraza needs to split time with Scootter until he proves he can walk or hit with more power.He needs help from the hitting coach in the worst way but he is only 23.This is the year to find out about as many guys as we possibly can but we have to allow our young pitchers a longer rope.Don’t want to give up to soon on young power arms with control issues.

  9. Duvall’s OBP, K%, BB%, HR% are remarkably similar to Dave Kingman’s career numbers.

    Kingman hit more career HR’s than Bench, Perez, Al Kaline, Cal Ripken and roughly 40 other HOF players. Yet he receives virtually zero HOF consideration as he was an extremely flawed player who hit a lot of meaningless home runs for mostly terrible teams.

    • Interesting….I was a teen when Kingman played and didn’t see him play that often but I remember that his atbats were exciting! I did a little quick math and his ops from age 28-32 averaged .837 (per season & not by actual atbats) and Duvall’s is currently .842! Pretty close but Kingman was a complete slug defensively from what I remember.

    • From the era of my youth, Dick “Dr StrangeGlove” Stuart. HR rate 5.2% to Kingman’s 5.9%. Stewart out OPS+ed Kingman 117 to 115. But Kingman out WARed Stuart 17.2 to 7.8 largely because Stuart. did all his damage (good and bad) in just 9 seasons versus ~15 for Kingman.

  10. I want to know if Kevlahan can play 2B. He’s impressed me in the few appearances he’s made. I know spring training counts for nothing, but I recall he raked and hit for power then. Something tells me, he is a ball player with some power.

Comments are closed.