A few weeks ago at a social gathering filled with awkward small talk and eventual exhaustion, I was forced to make conversation with a group of people, only one of whom I knew beforehand. Where the situation could have so easily turned to the weather or music tastes or staring at your shoes during the uncomfortable silences while waiting for someone to bring up the weather or music tastes, it instead turned to “what role would you play in a bank heist?” Don’t ask me how or why the conversation got here, just take solace knowing that it did.

I use that preface because the Reds having to select their Opening Day roster is a bit like a band of criminals selecting their heist team. You need your leader (captain), brawn (home run hitter), getaway driver (speed), and various other miscellaneous roles that fill out the baseball field.

However, the Reds having to select their Opening Day roster is also nothing like a band of criminals selecting their heist team because all the interesting jobs have already been taken. Filling out the Opening Day roster is just choosing the most eye-catching names to list and make the whole enterprise sound a lot cooler than it is. “Hey Bonnie, who should we get as our third?” “Find me Terrible Ted Walters, Clyde. He’ll up our credibility.”

At this point in the season though, all anyone wants to know about are the Terrible Teds even though they’ll be riding the bench while Bonnie and Clyde make off with the cash. So I’ll try to appease you and fill out the rest of the Reds’ Opening Day roster.

Screen Shot 2017-02-07 at 10.37.43 PM.png

So the Reds have invited 61 players to Spring Training in order to fill 25 active roster spots. After coming through those 61 players, I decided that there are really only 11 roster spots because 14 of those players could spend all of Spring Training using real cactuses for bats and grapefruits for balls and still make the team. In order to trim the remaining 47 down to 11 though, I — like the Reds front office — must make some exceedingly easy decisions followed by maybe two hard ones.

1. Players who are locks to make the team despite me not including them in the original “Locks to make the team category”

Tony Cingrani, Scott Feldman, Scott Schebler, and Jose Peraza are going to be on the 25-man roster without a doubt. Cingrani will fill the role he has for the last two years in the bullpen until management decides to trade him or he walks out the door on his own. Scott Feldman was paid too much to be a moderately useful old guy in the minors, and he does have the whole moderately useful thing going for him. Scott Schebler is the new Jay Bruce, and Jose Peraza just deserves to be on the roster, plain and simple.

You could maybe put Dilson Herrera in this category as well, but the Reds might want to leave him in AAA for some seasoning until Brandon Phillips makes a mental note to pack his bags.

2. Players who have no shot, not even if they start dating Dick Williams daughter the day Spring Training starts (Valentine’s Day FYI)

Any 40-man roster stashed prospects, any catchers not on the 40-man, and any starting pitcher not named Robert Stephenson, Cody Reed, Bronson Arroyo, or Amir Garrett.

Don’t get me wrong, Keury Mella, Jackson Stephens, and Nick Travieso still have aspirations to contribute to the Reds one day–that day just won’t be in April 2017. The same goes for Sal Romano and Aristides Aquino. The Reds value these guys too much to take them off the 40-man roster, but they just aren’t quite ready for the big leagues.

As for the catchers and the starting pitchers, there simply isn’t enough room on the bench for them. Stuart Turner would be the only backstop put on the 25-man roster if the Reds do want a third field captain, but the organization won’t risk losing someone off the 40-man for one of the other three names. On the pitchers’ side, the competition for the fifth spot has already been narrowed down to those four names above. Some of the other starters could make a 25-man appearance in the bullpen, but there are also probably better options on the list.

Screen Shot 2017-02-07 at 11.36.25 PM.png

Well, with the seventeen easy guys out of the way, the remaining 30 are a eclectic mix of serviceable vets, high risk young guys, and veteran young guys who feel like they’ve been in the minors forever. It’s these decisions that really get your blood pumping.

Basically, the front office has three big decisions to make and one insignificant decision: Who’s the fifth starter, who’s in the bullpen, who are the bench bats, and do we need a third catcher? To go ahead and answer the last question–no, not unless Devin Mesoraco pulls another Humpty Dumpty routine but that’s a problem for the future Reds. Bye Stuart Turner, hope we don’t see you too soon.

Question 1: Who’s the fifth starter?

Options: Amir Garrett, Robert Stephenson, Cody Reed, Bronson Arroyo

My heart wants Garrett, but my brain is telling me Reed. Despite pitching decently well in AAA at the end of last season, Amir Garrett won’t be rushed to the majors by a front office with nothing to lose this season. He’ll warm up in Louisville, make his debut around July or August, and be in it for the long haul next year.

As for Stephenson and Reed, both have had their issues (re: playing well), but the organization has given Reed more of shot so far (re: contracts and player control), so I don’t entirely anticipate that changing. If Reed does falter early on, expect Stephenson to be called upon, hopefully with a desire not to give the spot up.

Where does that leave Bronson Arroyo you ask? Well, there is always the option of the organization prioritizing well-loved veterans over up-and-coming young guys to the detriment of the club’s future potential, but the Reds have never been prone to such tomfoolery. Seriously, Arroyo shouldn’t take the fifth spot unless he unseats Feldman, but that’s unlikely. Bronson is just back to provide some guidance, a few laughs, and some eye candy for spectators down in Goodyear.

Question 2: Who’s in the bullpen?

Options: Barrett Astin, Austin Brice, Rookie Davis, Jumbo Diaz, Wandy Peralta, Blake Wood, Alejandro Chacin, Vladimir Gutierrez, Jimmy Herget, Evan Mitchell, Kevin Shackelford, Lucas Luetge, Nick Routt, Louis Coleman

Leave it to the Reds to make their bullpen the most competitive and least exciting component of the entire Spring Training ordeal.

The Reds usually go with a five man bench out of Spring Training, so there are likely only three bullpen spots available. Granted, injuries will always change that dynamic and will inevitably occur, but let’s pretend we can ignore those pesky things for the time being.

Doing a quick run through of the above list, you can sort the relievers into three categories and then basically pick one from each list, dust off your hands, and call it a day.

Screen Shot 2017-02-07 at 11.49.17 PM.png

The Reds have actually optimally positioned themselves here because they have a bunch of young guys getting exposure amongst a few guys who have been around the block and some more seasoned, hungry players their age. Go Reds.

As for who’s going to make the roster, my hunch is Rookie Davis, Austin Brice, and Jumbo Diaz.

Davis makes the most sense for the immediate longterm, 2018, to become accustomed to high leverage situations. Brice has a decent upside and has gotten Major League exposure before, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Shackelford beat him out. (Gutierrez profiles as a late reliever–I think the Reds have a type–but I imagine the organization will test him out as a starter at the lower levels before sending him to the pen.) As for Jumbo Diaz, he’s a familiar face and is objectively better than Blake Wood. Luetge and Coleman’s stats don’t send out any flares of excitement, but who knows, maybe they’ll turn into the new Kevin Gregg. (Does Jumbo sound better now?)

Question 3: Who’s on the bench?

Options: Arismendy Alcantara, Phillip Ervin, Dilson Herrera, Jesse Winker, Tony Renda, Hernan Iribarren, Sebastian Elizalde, Gabriel Guerrero, Patrick Kivlehan, Zack Vincej, Brandon Dixon

With three open bench spots and no obvious takers, maybe I ruled out Stuart Turner too early. Arismendy Alcantara has the experience. Dilson Herrera and Jesse Winker have the hype. Everyone else has a first and last name.

This decision is another spot where the 40-man roster will quite easily play a factor. Unless one of the non-roster invitees just absolutely steals the show (you thought I forgot the theme of this post, didn’t you?), there’s no way the Reds will drop someone off the 40-man to make room for them. So that rules out Dixon, Renda, Vincej, Elizalde, Guerrero, Iribarren, and Kivlehan.

As much as I’d love to see Phillip Ervin make the team out of camp, he hit under .240 at AA last year, which could be overlooked given his OBP if he was at the Major League level, but he’s not so it cannot. The Reds also probably want to see the outfielder at AAA before taking any chances on his weak bat at the highest level.

Leaving us with Arismendy Alcantara, Dilson Herrera, and Jesse Winker–a fearsome back of the bench if I’ve ever seen one. Hopefully, Winker takes the season to blossom and Herrera can find some playing time somewhere as 2017 is shaping up to be one big learning experience.

On paper though, this Reds 2017 Opening Day roster couldn’t even rob their own pockets.

Screen Shot 2017-02-08 at 12.11.43 AM.png

33 Responses

  1. David Eberly

    I would not want Herrera or Winker to make the roster if they aren’t playing at least 50% of the time.

    • lwblogger2

      Agreed. They don’t need to be up and there are service time as well as development issues to contend with, assuming they are up sitting on the bench. They need to be playing somewhere, rather it be AAA or MLB.

  2. DHud

    You only have 24 (you crossed out Scott Schebler on the second and third charts).

  3. Scott Carter

    Good article, except I only count 24 players on your Roster. I see Blake Wood making the roster (unfortunately) over Rookie Davis simply due to the fact of what Wood is being paid and is a known quality at the Major League level. I also don’t see Winker making roster out of ST simply do to service time consideration nor Herrera as long as Phillips is still here. I’m not sure where that leaves us on the bench but I think new addition Jennings will probably make the team. I think I am still short on roster spaces.

  4. Daytonian

    Add back Alejandro Chacin–and pull someone else out of the bullpen.

  5. scott

    I think you meant to keep Schebler, not cross him out

  6. WVRedlegs

    Dilson Herrera is going to be parked at AAA until the BP situation at 2B is settled. Bryan Price has pretty much said so. Therefore, the Reds should make a waiver claim on just DFA’d Phil Gosselin, a RH hitter that can play all INF and OF positions. Good stick and pretty good defender.
    With Barnhart on paper at least as the backup C, there are only 4 bench spots open. Versatility on the bench is going to be very crucial. Therefore, that is why I make the waiver claim on Gosselin. Jennings is supposed to be signed, but it is not official yet. Irabarren and his versatility should pay nicely on the Reds bench. That other spot looks to be either Cozart or Peraza.
    That’s a pretty good bench. If Jennings fails his physical, the Reds should go get OF Franklin Guitierrez as the RH bench bat. Gosselin and Irabarren can cover CF in a pinch if needed. Versatility.

    • lwblogger2

      Gosselin is intriguing. I have no real idea how he ended up in DFA limbo as part of a roster crunch. He’s exactly the kind of guy who should be on a bench. I don’t think his offense is quite what you’re making of it but it isn’t bad for a guy who plays everywhere and it’s nothing to shake a stick at… Yeah, sorry about that pun… Not really.

      Not sure I’d drop someone off the 40-man to claim him but I certainly hope the Reds are at least considering it.

      • WVRedlegs

        Gosselin hits RHP almost as well as LHP (.280 vs. .289) and has a pretty good pinch hitting track record, a .257 BA in 112 PA’s. That is pretty good for a PH. Gosselin is a pretty good contact hitter, too. He would make the bench better. Worth a 40-man roster spot? Yes, I think so. Good-bye Jumbo or another reliever.
        Gosselin, if picked up on a waiver claim, would require an immediate 40-man spot. Jennings and Irabarren, if either makes the 25-man roster out of spring training won’t require a spot until the conclusion of spring training. That helps with a tight 40-man roster.

  7. Hotto4Votto

    On the bench I think we’ll see Peraza, Alcantara, Jennings (oddly omitted in this article), Barnhart, and a player to be decided based on Mesoraco’s ability to catch once or twice a week to start off. Turner will be there if not, I think we’ll see Renda or Irribarren make the team.

    In the pen I see Iglesias, Lorenzen, Storen, Cingrani, Wood, Diaz, and Brice as the long man.

    I see Reed being tabbed the 5th starter. He’s not had the same control issues as Stephenson (or Garrett to a lesser degree) in AAA and with a more normalized HR/FB rate his numbers last year with the Reds look a lot better.

    I don’t think we’ll see Winker start the year with the Reds because keeping him down two weeks would add a year of control. In fact I wouldn’t expect to see him until after Super Two cut off because the Reds could use that time to evaluate who will stick as a starter between Duvall and Schebler.

    Price has already said Herrera won’t make the team to sit on the bench. It would be a waste of service time and hinder development if he’s riding the bench. He needs regular ABs and he’s only getting those in AAA until the Reds rid themselves of Phillips.

    Adding Jennings would mean a roster move, and I’d expect Turner (if not needed) Peralta or one of Diaz/Wood/Adelman would be near the cut line. If Turner is not needed that would mean two roster moves but there are options based on how the bullpen sorts out.

    • MrRed

      I think your conclusions are closer to what will happen. I wish it weren’t the case that BP is among the locks for a spot on the 25 man. But if the Reds elected to release him (which they should in the interest of moving forward), Herrera then goes from odd man out to a cinch to make the 25 man and to start at 2B. Then, instead of the Reds potentially utilizing 2 spots on the 25 man to accommodate BP and Herrera, they have some flexibility with the bench and bullpen spots.

  8. lwblogger2

    How is this for a bad scenario? I foresee the Reds doing something crazy, such as carrying 13 pitchers and 3 catchers. That would leave just 2 other bench spots.

  9. larry

    I think both Diaz and Wood make the 25 man squad , leaving “Rookie” in the minors until a reliever fails or gets hurt.

  10. larry

    or gets traded. I also think the reds will carry three catchers (unfortunately), as L W B already stated.

  11. Scott Carter

    Gosselin has a decent bat but really is limited in the field as primarily a second or third baseman which we definitely do not need.

  12. Shchi Cossack

    With just 5 days until pitchers and catchers report, the baseball juices are beginning to percolate after an invisibly passive off season.

    The 40-man roster is filled, but not as tight as it appears. I think the results of the rule-5 draft and the lack of action on the plethora of prospects left unprotected by the Reds.

    Stuart Turner was a rule-5 selection. If he does not make the 25-man roster, he must be offered back to the Twins and this opens a 40-man roster spot immediately. That puts several non-roster invitees in play for the 25-man roster. Unless Mesoraco proves incapable of catching in even a part-time or platoon role during spring training, Stuart will not make the 25-man roster. He’s played the last 2 seasons in AA and couldn’t even manage a .700 OPS. If Mesoraco proves incapable of reguilar playing time during spring training, then he should be relegated to to 60-day DL and stay in Arizona until he is completely ready for a minor league rehab assignment and activation. This also opens a 40-man roster spot with Stuart platooning with Barnhart on the 25-man roster.

    Cozart’s time wearing the Wishbone-C is nearing an end…quickly. The market for middle IF has been scarce this off season, but Cozart represents real value as an injury replacement on a contending team. His catastrophic knee injury during the 2015 season was well documented, but Cozart proved himself (and his knee) capable of playing at a very competitive level during the 1st half of the 2016 season. No one expected Cozart to return from that injury play at such a high level, offensively and defensively. Cozart’s playing time was very poorly managed last season after such a devastating injury and surgery. The knee was simply not ready to take a full season of pounding. Cozart is now a year removed from the injury and surgery with an additional off season of recovery and rehab. once Cozart demonstrates he is ready to go physically during spring training, DW’s phone will be ringing after the first injury to a starting middle IF on a contending team. Cozart’s contract makes him readily marketable in a trade when the opportunity arises. That opens an additional 40-man roster spot, possible prior to the end of spring training.

    Duvall & Schebler are locks for the 25-man roster and starting corner OF position, at least for probably 3 months. The Reds simply have to find out if either, both or neither of those two players can start in the Reds OF for the 2018 season.

    Peraza is also a lock for the 25-man roster. Hopefully his playing time will be maximized at SS & 2B until the starting SS position opens full time.

    Winker & Herrera do not make the 25-man roster coming out of spring training. They both fall into that next-man-up status when an opening materializes for a starter at the major league level. That probably happens after 3 months has passed and their time to prove themselves arrives.

    Jumbo Diaz, Tony Cingrani & Blake Wood proved to be serviceable pitchers in the bullpen, just not as elite or high-leverage relievers. They probably join Lorenzen, Iglesias & Storen in the bullpen on opening day. That leaves Wandy Peralta, Barrett Astin, Austin Brice & Luis Castillo competing for the final bullpen positions on opening day before unleashing the younger pitchers with higher upside (Rookie Davis, Ariel Hernandez, Keury Mella, Sal Romano, Jackson Stephens, Nick Travieso, etc). The later options would come into play if and when the opening day relievers on the 25-man roster struggle or are traded.

  13. big5ed

    This stuff emphasizes that there isn’t any real point in keeping Phillips beyond the end of spring training. Nobody will give any value for him, even if he accepted a trade. (To the Mets for fourth outfielder Jay Bruce, in an exchange of bad contracts?)

    Barring a major injury to a second baseman on a contending team–one with no other options at 2B and one that doesn’t understand decline rates–nobody will even really inquire about him, at least until the trade deadline. If the Reds are playing Phillips even semi-regularly through July, the terrorists win.

    They are going to have to eat this year of the Phillips contract, anyway. They may as well DFA him. I’d do it as soon as they are comfortable that Herrera is ready, even by late February; or even before ST opens, with the idea of at least playing Peraza there.

    • larry

      I absolutely agree with you on B P, and I understand sunk costs. But to you and I the 14 million is monopoly money. I wish, but don’t see Bob C cutting B P in spring training, and then watching him play for someone else for a additional 500,000.00 I think if B P doesn’t accept a trade by 7-31-17, I think Bob C would give him his unconditional release. The cost should “only” be about 4.8 million then, an easier pill to swallow. Here’s hoping I’m wrong. Free B P! Go reds.

      • lwblogger2

        It really depends on how he’s playing. If he’s playing poorly, then benching him or even releasing him can be sold to the general fans, teammates, and other players around the league.

  14. Hammer

    Another roster (and rotation) spot just opened up…

    Homer had surgery on that pesky right elbow again. Out 4-6 weeks, likely start the season on the DL…

    Arroyo signing making a little more sense now.

    • lwblogger2

      Sure sounds like my dad was right and he is done. Jason’s data is looking more and more solid in that Homer ever returning to his previous form seems unlikely. Heck, at this point it would be a minor miracle if he can give them 15 good, healthy starts.

      • greenmtred

        Arthroscopic elbow surgery isn’t, by itself, necessarily the end of the line, LW, though we’re all pretty gun-shy at this point. I assume, but don’t know, that it indicates osteoarthritis of the elbow, which I have and have had surgery for, and which I’m not happy about, but I bet a whole lot of veteran pitchers have it to some degree. He might surprise us.

      • Hammer

        True, and I would suspect 100% that he has osteoarthritis in his throwing elbow due to what’s called post-surgical change. Any time you open a joint capsule like they do in surgery, you will likely develop arthritides. I’m certain he has also developed a lot of scar tissue in the elbow due to the multiple surgeries as well. I’m 31 and have had osteoarthritis due to post-surgical change in my right shoulder for about 6 years now due to Kremcheck’s own scalpel.

        I’m now a healthcare provider, and had I known then what I know now about how the body heals and repairs (not just 20/20 hindsight) I would have never let him cut on my shoulder. Surgery, in most cases, is NOT the answer. In fact, lower back surgery in particular only has between an 18-30% “success” rate. Ie, reduction of symptoms; not the surgeon’s claim of success if the patient just makes it off the operating table.

      • lwblogger2

        I have osteoarthritis in both knees. Yeah, it stinks. The scope itself isn’t the end of the world but each setback makes it harder to come back. Bailey has had so many. I feel for the guy. I know people say “Well, he’s already got his millions!” but this is a person and his health and livelihood we’re talking about. The money matters a ton but there’s so much more to it for him and for the Reds.

  15. MrRed

    Wes, I know you said that you weren’t accounting for injuries in this exercise, but with the news today that Bailey has undergone arthroscopic surgery on his arm and won’t be able to throw for at least another 4-6 weeks, I think we can now move him off of the usual suspects list and discuss how that affects the team’s decisions for the 25 man roster at least for the early portion of the season.

    Maybe now Arroyo gets more than just a courtesy tryout? Or perhaps there’s more room for one of the youngsters to grab a spot out of spring training?

    • KetteringRedsFan

      General observation:

      -Everyone- here is working on the presumption that (assuming he can pitch) Arroyo, because he has been a starter, would be used as a starter. Rigid conception of role.

      Given Bailey out (still) two marginal starters (Adelman, Feldman) and a bunch of candidates with unproven reliability and duration (Reed, Bob Steve just for openers) due to control and long-ball issues, it would appear that we have a raft full of 5 inning starters in the rotation.

      Would Arroyo (if/when he serves with the big club, not Louisville) be better utilized as the long reliever of choice – 2-4 inning stints with shorter (two-three?) day turnarounds? Sort of what LeCure used to provide. Also the option of a short-duration spot start when the inevitable DL roll calls and Louisville Shuttle kick in.

      Advantage: would stabilize the rotation to a degree, would (hopefully) salvage some poor starts, would have Arroyo on hand to work with and council the youth.

      Disadvantage: Assumes he can pitch, for openers, but we already know that. Athis age, does he have a recovery trajectory that matches the work load, he’s not down at Louisville mentoring the youth, we don’t have Corky Miller to catch for him.

      Just thinking….feel free to slap this down.

  16. David

    Desmond Jennings? Is he not even considered? He has to be a front runner for the bench, mainly due to nobody else can play a decent CF behind Hamilton.

  17. greenmtred

    Wesley: Really entertaining, as always.

  18. Wesley Jenkins

    So 3 addendums to this from me:

    1. I totally forgot the Reds signed Desmond Jennings, which is my fault. He will absolutely take the roster spot currently designated for Jesse Winker above. Because Stuart Turner is Rule 5 and likely to be returned to the Twins (unless Mes can’t play), Jennings will take his 40-man spot.

    2. With the Homer Bailey news, I would expect Robert Stephenson to fill his spot. Bringing Arroyo on board, while my dream, just wouldn’t make sense in terms of development. Garrett needs to stay down for service time considerations.

    3. A bunch of people have brought up substituting a different reliever for Dilson Herrera to get him more time at AAA and/or service time. To that end, it is more likely for the Reds to hang on to Blake Wood and leave Dilson down, but if they do, it’ll be solely for money reasons. Same thing for substituting Adleman for Rookie Davis. Basically, I constructed this roster outside of the “baseball as a business” mindset, which is foolhardy I admit, but in terms of being a competitive team in 2018, keeping Dilson and Rookie after camp makes more sense to me.

  19. Steve

    Did the Reds sign Jennings already? Bailey should be put on the 60 day DL on 2/14 and open up a roster spot. SP- Disco, Finnegan, Feldman, Reed, Stephenson RP- Adleman, Cingrani, Diaz, Iglesias, Lorenzen, Storen, Wood C-Mes, Barnhart, Turner IF- JV, BP, Cozart, Suarez, Peraza OF- Schebler, BHam, Duvall, Alcantara, whoever performs best of Iribarren, Kivlehan, Jennings if signed or Brice as 13th pitcher if they decide to go that route

  20. Shchi Cossack

    I don’t believe the 60-day DL doesn’t retro back prior to opening day. If I understand the process correctly (big if sometimes!), the 60-day DL must be cleared after the World Series and doesn’t become effective again until opening day. I think a that should certainoly be considered as an option for Bailey, but there is time left before that decision needs to be made.