The Reds announced that pitcher Homer Bailey had surgery this morning to remove bone spurs in his right elbow. Dr. David Altchek in New York performed the surgery. Bailey had seen Altchek for a second opinion last year.

Read more about Bailey’s surgery in this article by Zach Buchanan.

Bailey will shut down his offseason program for 4-6 weeks. It’s likely he’ll start the season on the DL. Opening Day is just under 8 weeks away.

The Reds will have to decide whether they want to look for more pitching on the free agent market or use the temporary opening as an opportunity for one of the younger pitchers.

90 Responses

  1. greenmtred

    Steve: The article seems to imply that Homer will miss the entire year, though the meaning may simply have been that he wouldn’t start the season in rotation. Any insights?

    • Steve Mancuso

      Not entire year. 4-6 weeks behind spring training. Just miss the first few weeks if everything goes ok. Return from bone spurs is pretty routine. Could have been worse things causing his elbow pain. Encouraging that doctors said the rest of elbow looks fine.

      • Old-school

        Steve- the article says shut down for 4-6 weeks…that’s rest and physical therapy and no baseball. That puts him at mid-march at ground zero…Then likely baby steps with 4-6 weeks of a progressing throwing program on flat ground plus elbow rehab ..that’s Mid to late April….then another 2-3 weeks of bullpens off a mound….that’s early to mid May….then a rehab stint at Louisville….which is Memorial day….I think the Reds are best to pitch him out of the bullpen this year…give him a structured scripted regimen like they did with Lorenzen and let him pitch 10-15 innings a month from June to September….that’s 50-65 innings this year- and then try again as a starter in 2018.

      • Kyle Farmer

        And all that assumes no setbacks. Anybody willing to place a bet on no setbacks.

        I guess he can still whine about decisions made by the front office, though.

      • Michael E

        Actually he’ll start throwing in early March most likely and get in a few games in last week or so of spring. I would think first week of May is likely target return, but of course that hinges on a 5 week recovery and no dead arm or set backs from mid March to late April.

      • Pablo

        That is certainly a conservative approach to it. I guess it depends on if the Reds feel pressure for him to earn that paycheck, how good his insurance policy is, and if the Reds are in a competitive position. I like the idea though and certainly hope that the Reds consider him for a reliever role. It could turn into a permanent thing especially if Lorenzen finds success as a starter with no arm fatigue.

  2. Old-school

    What a shame- Good luck to Homer. We now understand the Feldman signing.
    Garrett is #4 starter. Bob Steve and Reed compete for #5.

  3. Old-school

    Homer should pitch out of the bullpen in 2017 when he comes back- like Lorenzen did last year.

  4. DHud

    This song and dance is really getting old

    • greenmtred

      Imagine how old it’s getting for Homer.

      • Michael E

        Exactly. It’s not like Homer signed the contract and then said, I’d love to earn it all in perpetual rehabilitation. He is putting in more work rehabilitating than any other pitcher is putting in healthy. Unfortunately that doesn’t help the Reds or show up in the box score.

      • lwblogger2

        And I’ll add that no ballplayer wants to be rehabbing instead of playing. Ballplayers want to play ball!

      • jessecuster44

        Yeah, really old. He won’t be able to lift that elbow to count all his money.

  5. Kurt Frost

    Will be every pitch in a Reds uniform again?

      • DHud

        I’ll believe it when I see it. Says he will shut down throwing for 4-6 weeks. Add rehab onto that

        These things have a way of dragging themselves out. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if he’s pitching for the Reds by July

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        I’m with you on that one. I said before on his return from TJ. People were saying he should have returned something like beginning of May (talking in a Reds uniform with the big league club). I said we would be lucky to see him pitching by the All-Star break. When did we see him? A couple of weeks after All-Star break.

        I believe, this time, we will see him before the All-Star break. But, I don’t see him being any good until after the All-Star break. As in, he might “accept” the #1 title upon his return, but he won’t be any better than a #4 or #5 man until well after the All-Star break.

        Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if they shut him down the entire season again.

        At least I didn’t read Kremchek’s name.

      • Beavertucky

        You said he’d be pitching last May too. He’s done

      • Jay King

        Yeah your dreaming mate. I think it should be considered a successful season for him if he gets to pitch out of the major league bullpen. I have never liked Bailey, not sure why but I have always from early on never cared for him to be considered so highly as some make him to be. Shakes head. Even with his no hitters. Yes I was impressed but this guy has only put up good stats for maybe 1 or 2 years at most.

  6. WVRedlegs

    No, no, no. Reminiscent of Mat Latos at the start of spring training in 2013. That was the beginning of the end for Mat Latos. Hope that is not the case for Homer Bailey.
    Good luck and speedy recovery Homer.

    • WVRedlegs

      Make that 2014 ST on Latos. My mistake.

  7. lwblogger2

    Just incredibly disappointing that he keeps suffering setback after setback. If it stinks for us fans, imagine how much it stinks for Bailey, and the Reds.

  8. Jeremy Conley

    What a shame. It just feels like Bailey has been cursed. It’s no one’s fault, but Bailey’s contract extension was the beginning of the downward spiral for this team.

  9. Bill Lack

    Best thing that I get from this is they went to a Doc that wasn’t Kremchek…maybe the Reds are figuring him out also.

    • Matt

      My Uncle got rotator cuff surgery recently. Spent a lot of time figuring out the best surgeon to go to, and he said people in the field told him “Whatever you do, don’t go to Kremchek. The guy is a hack.”

      Thought it was veeerrrrry interesting to have our decidedly non-expert opinions validated by someone who knows more what they’re doing.

      • Dewey Roberts

        That makes me concerned about a front office that has put its pitchers in Kremchek’s hands for several years now. Yuck.

      • Kyle Farmer

        Not to mention the quarter of a billion dollar knee of Joey Votto that was messed up and required another surgery.

      • lwblogger2

        I’ve never heard him referred to as a “hack” although there are a lot of people that don’t like him. I imagine he’s a good surgeon or the Reds wouldn’t keep him around. These are multi-million dollar investments and you don’t keep a “hack” working on them. Kremcheck also performs surgery on other teams’ players from time to time. I don’t think the dislike for Kremcheck is due to his incompetence.

  10. Old-school

    segue to the opening day roster post…..
    SP-Disco/Finnegan/Feldman/Garret/Bob Steve
    Bullpen- RH-Iglesias/Storen/Lorenzen/Wood/Adelman(long relief/flex)
    LH- Cingrani/Peralta/Reed
    catchers- Barnhart/Mesoraco
    Inf- Suarez/Cozart/BP/Votto/Peraza
    Utility- Alcantara

  11. Shchi Cossack

    Old BA is now squarely in play in the competition for the starting rotation, along with Tim Adleman. Adleman didn’t pitch poorly last season for a #5 starter, but a fly ball pitcher throwing from the GABP mound will usually struggle.

    The door is wide open for any of the young starters to step through…

  12. Jeremy Conley

    It’s incredible to think that for a guy with so much talent, Bailey has accumulated 13.7 fWAR in 11 years in the league. He just has not been able to stay healthy.

    • Patrick Jeter

      This is one of those weird times when 13.7 fWAR sort of looks impressive if you squint a certain way… then, looks terrible when you squint the other way…

      • Jeremy Conley

        A 14 win career is certainly nothing to be ashamed of, but we saw what he was capable of in 2012 and 2013, which is to be a 3 or 4 win pitcher every year. If he had been healthy in his career it’s easy to see him putting up twice the value in WAR that he has, if not way more.

        It’s sad that he never really got to be the pitcher he looked like he could be, and sad that the Reds paid an injury-prone pitcher a lot of money after the two years that he stayed healthy. They’ve paid about $30M per WAR the last 3 years with him.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        That’s why I would have extended Leake. He hadn’t been injured nearly as much as Homer. His numbers were actually very similar to Homer’s. As well as, Leake could pinch hit, pinch run, and even possibly play some emergency SS if needed. Leake was a much more valuable commodity. And, he wouldn’t have cost nearly as much.

      • Patrick Jeter

        Mike Leake can play SS at the major league level?

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        I did say emergency SS.

  13. Jason Linden

    This is why I thought they signed Feldman and Arroyo. Can’t have too much pitching and all that.

    • VaRedsFan

      Having too much “bad” pitching is the problem though, regarding the 2 that you mentioned. At least the 3 rookies could be bad with room to grow.

  14. scottya

    Too bad :(. Opportunities for all of our upcoming starters are there for the taking. If homer bounces back this could turn out to be a positive.

  15. Scott Carter

    Don’t think either will happen but IF Homer comes back he should pitch from pen this year. And Lorenzen should have first opportunity start

  16. Yippee

    Those 6 games he pitched last season are looking sort of goofy now…I argued the Reds should have shut him down completely at the time and save him for 2017 but the FO didn’t listen…the nerve!

  17. WVRedlegs

    The free agent SP market has been picked over like a buzzard on a carcass. It was thin to begin with. There is Travis Wood (30), Doug Fister (33), Jake Peavy (35), Colby Lewis (37), Jorge de la Rosa (36), Edwin Jackson (33) and Jon Neise (30). They could also try a reliever that once started like Wood in hard throwing Tommy Hunter. The pickin’s are mighty slim.
    If, and it is a monster “if”, Robert Stephenson ever figures it out, then Feldman or Wood could be moved into the bullpen. And both would be nice flip candidates. Non-closing relievers were bringing back good returns at last year’s trade deadline.

    • MrRed

      The Reds should, and I think will, hold firm on no additional signings. Unless another injury occurs to a starter, they are going with somebody in the system. Not enough justification to sign any of the folks you mentioned above who will be seeking multi-year deals with AAV’s that the Reds can’t justify given where they are at the competitive cycle. Go with the youngins in 2017 and see what you have for the future, when (hopefully) the Reds are more likely to be competitive.

  18. Tom Mitsoff

    Now we know why Feldman and Arroyo were signed. More so than ever, it’s time to call the rotation spots up for grabs, other than DeSclafani, and may the best men win. No better way to “sort” than let them sort themselves.

    • TR

      Agreed. Spring training of Rebuild year three should be quite interesting.

    • vegastypo

      Also agree with Tom here……………..Ya know, given this news about Homer, if I was the Reds, I’d be tempted to plan on Stephenson and Reed being in the rotation, even if they don’t have the greatest of spring trainings. With Disco, Feldman and Finnegan also in the rotation ………. And if they are faring too poorly to continue more than a month or two, there’s Adleman, maybe Homer comes back, or Garrett (who saves up service time if he’s not in the rotation from the get-go).

  19. GreatRedLegsFan

    Time to pass that page, he’ll never be a rotation workhorse again. Reds should look for other options before forcing the young guys or expecting a miracle from already washed-ups, be realistic!

      • lwblogger2

        Except Smoltz didn’t have setback after setback. He missed time, had a setback and missed more time. Then he came back and pitched out of the pen. Then they started him again.

  20. Michael E

    Homer cannot catch a break. We’re all upset he hasn’t been able to pitch the past few seasons, but you have to feel for the guy a little bit, even if he is making millions for perpetual rehabilitation.

    This sounds like it will mean Bailey would not be ready until early May as I assume he’ll miss the first few weeks of spring training, likely just soft tossing and throwing on the side. He’ll probably get a few games in the last two weeks of March and then go to extended spring training and continue building up arm strength and stamina. Let’s hope for our sake and his sake there are no more setbacks and and 2017 becomes a 25+ start, 160+ innings years.

  21. jessecuster44

    Any reason why the surgery happened NOW instead of earlier in offseason? Could not read article.

    Think the Reds have totally butchered Bailey’s health over the last 3 years. Encouraging that another doctor was used besides Kremchek, but this med staff has a fairly poor success rate.

    I don’t think Bailey ever pitches effectively again. Flat out amazing that over 20% of Reds payroll is tied up in two players who cannot keep healthy. Hopefully management has learned a lesson about who to award a large contract to.

    • Steve Mancuso

      Bailey was going through a normal ramp-up to the 2017 season. Felt the pain in his elbow as he threw more.

      Can’t understand the view that the Reds should have somehow known that Bailey and Mesoraco would have been so injured. What lesson exactly do you think the Reds should have learned? Don’t sign pitchers who are older than 28 and catchers older than 26?

      Are there statistics that back up your claim that this medical staff has a fairly poor success rate, compared to other medical staffs? Would be interested to see that.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        They shouldn’t have extended a rookie catcher. As in, “Prove you can repeat it and not a one-season wonder.”

        Homer was simply the wrong pitcher to extend. It should have been Leake. Leake was a much more valuable commodity. Less injured. Not as much a headcase. Numbers similar to Homer’s (people talked of Homer’s WAR in 10 seasons, 13.7; Leake should pass that this season, his 8th). As well as Leake could pinch hit, pinch run, and possibly even play emergency SS if needed. Also, Leake wouldn’t have cost as much, either.

      • Steve Mancuso

        Mesoraco wasn’t a rookie catcher. They extended him one year.

        Homer was a much better pitcher than Mike Leake. Leake has never been much more than a #5 on a good staff. The Reds were looking for someone to anchor their staff in 2013, not a pitcher who could play SS in an emergency (as if Leake could really do that). Bailey looked like a good bet.

      • Patrick Jeter

        Also, guys who have 2 good years in a row often cost twice as much (or more) than guys who just had 1 good year.

        It’s a balancing act of risk and trying to maximize performance while minimizing cost. Sometimes you get it wrong. Sometimes, you extend Paul Goldschmidt or Chris Sale on insanely under-market contracts.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        First full year catching, whatever, he was barely considered a 2nd string catcher under Baker.

      • Patrick Jeter

        Who cares what Baker considered him?

        They saw a chance to extend a potential game-changing bat at below-market rates and took the chance. He got hurt. That’s sports. Nothing wrong with taking a chance there, I think.

      • Chuck Schick

        Bailey’s contract was signed in early 2014. He was coming off 2 straight 200 inning seasons and the Reds had made the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years. He was scheduled to be a UFA at the end of 2014.

        The general expectation going into that season was that the Reds would be good and likely be a playoff contender. While they were 1.5 games out at mid season, the wheels fell off and it wasn’t a particularly good year.

        If you’re the Reds, you have a sense that 2015 is the last year of your competitive cycle as both Leake and Cueto were UFA at season end and they knew they couldn’t afford both…or even just 1 of them.
        Based on what the circumstances were at the time, signing Bailey made sense. It was the sensible move. Had things shaken out the right way it would’ve bought them 2 years in which to compete with their full arsenal of pitchers.

        It’s easy to be a hindsight GM

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        The thing is, I said before the Reds extended Bailey that it was a stupid contract. So, there was no hindsight involved.

      • Patrick Jeter

        But, it wasn’t a stupid contract when it was signed. So, there’s that…

      • jessecuster44

        I just look at the history of injury and re-injury of Reds players from 2012 – today. For my eye test, it looks bad. Every team has players who get hurt. Not every team has players who consistently get re-injured.

        Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Broxton, Mez, Bailey – all these players have gotten hurt, then hurt again. I don’t think their initial injuries were vetted properly.

        Considering how “small-market” the Reds are – and remember that management has cited payroll constraint many times – this trend of “star” players getting injured is alarming.

        If you can’t vet and diagnose an injury correctly, you shouldn’t sign players to contracts that would cripple a team should said player get hurt.

        Sure you could argue that the Reds have been “unlucky” with injuries. But you can create your own luck by having a good med staff. The fact that Kremcheck didn’t do Homer’s surgery tells me a lot.

        If the Reds want to be good, they need to look for every advantage they can get, because they can’t outspend most other teams. So having one of the best med staffs would be a big advantage. IMHO, they’re pretty far away from this.

        I’ve posted in the past about a site that displays time spent on the DL for each MLB team. It’s behind a paywall.

        How would you like the “success” rate of med staffs quantified?

      • greenmtred

        It would be hard to quantify in any way that isn’t apples to oranges,for reasons that should be too obvious to need listing. But for your eye test to be valid, you’d need to follow other teams as closely as you do the Reds. I don’t, and I feel as though the Reds are snakebit, as you do. But I can’t help noticing, particularly in season, that the bottom line crawl is rarely short of guys going on the DL who aren’t Reds. It’s the sort of game that does that, and the medical staff really can’t foresee many injuries or prevent their recurrence with 100% success, given the needs of the ballclub, the competitive nature of the players and the unfortunate fact that many stress injuries don’t re-emerge until they’re exposed to full-on, don’t-hold-back game situations. I don’t know anything about Dr. Kremchek, but I do know that it’s possible to find detractors for any professional or tradesperson.

      • Steve Mancuso

        I’m with you on the way the Votto’s initial injury was handled. I think that was close to a one-off given Votto’s status and Dusty Baker’s “players manager” bias. Even there, we’re just speculating. It’s hard to know what role the training staff (and it would be the training staff, not the medical staff) played in Votto’s quad strain caused by overwork.

        Homer switching surgeons is also an interesting bit of information. That’s why I asked Zach Buchanan about it and included that detail in the original post. But again, maybe Homer just liked that surgeon better when he talked to him last year. If I’d been through what he had, I’d be questioning lots of people, whether justified or not.

        I’ll certainly agree that the Reds roster management of injuries under Jocketty seemed to leave a lot to be desired.

        All that said, maybe all teams go through this. I suppose we could start to measure relative success rates based on repeated trips to the DL for the same injury, or measuring the relative length of time on the DL for equal injuries. That would at least *start* to provide rigor to our claims about the Reds medical staff. But even then, we’d be confronted with pretty small sample sizes.

        From what I’ve read about Mesoraco’s injury and Bailey’s surgeries, there isn’t anything the medical staff itself could have done differently. Players get hurt. Some players get hurt more often than others. We remember the players who have repeated serious injuries. But there are also players who return successfully that we tend to forget about. Again, rigor in approach is called for.

        I’ve been ready to go after the Reds orthopedic staff. Goodness knows Reds fans have plenty of reasons to be frustrated. But Kremchek has a great reputation. Other teams send their players to him, not just the Reds. He might not be in the top three orthopedic surgeons in the country, but if he really was bad at his job, with the millions of dollars at stake for major league teams, why would they keep using him? My inference (and that’s all it is) would be that he’s competent. I’ve back-channeled with sources whose business it is to care about sports injuries, and they vouch for Kremchek.

        On the bright side, the new front office has convinced ownership to invest heavily in the area of injury prevention, including science.

      • Steve Mancuso

        Look, you might be right about the Reds medical staff. I’m just saying we don’t really know anything compared to other medical staffs.

      • jessecuster44

        Gotcha. Thanks for the detailed response.

    • Steve Schoenbaechler

      I told people last season, when they were talking we would see him by the beginning of May, that we won’t see him until after the All-Star break. When did we (we, as in Reds fans watching a Reds game and seeing Homer in a Reds jersey pitching of a major league mound) see him? A couple of weeks after the All-Star break.

      I believe we will see him before the All-Star break this season. But, even though he may be “given” the #1 man position, he won’t be any better than a #4 or #5 for a while. We might see a shade or two of what he “can be” this season. But, we probably won’t see Homer be a #1 again until next season “possibly”.

      • Steve Mancuso

        Everyone associated with the Reds thought Bailey would be back by May. A May return is consistent with the vast majority of experience that major league pitchers like Bailey have with Tommy John surgery. Bailey had a set-back with a nerve issue in his elbow. Unless you had specific knowledge of Bailey’s medical condition, there was no basis for your claim about his return date. Throwing darts blindfolded isn’t analysis.

      • big5ed

        Well, if he’s out 6 weeks, then it stands to reason that he will be starting from scratch (if not behind “scratch”) on March 21, and not on February 14 as planned. Given that spring training is supposed to get a guy ready, and that ST spans about 7 weeks, then without a set-back, Bailey would be ready at best 7 weeks from April 3, or May 22. Maybe he can get ahead of the curve and start throwing well before March 21.

        And we should know better by now than to use “Bailey” and “without a set-back” in the same sentence. I realistically expect him back in June. It’s a shame, with nobody to blame.

        As to Kremchek, the report of the NY doctor was that the TJ surgery looks fine, so Kremchek apparently did a good job on it. To me, it is a huge stretch for non-doctors to complain about how somebody else’s medical treatment is going, having neither talked to the patient nor seen the medical records. I’ll chalk up the “he’s a hack” talk to professional backbiting about Kremchek’s financial success.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        No, it’s not consistent. You are only looking at the ones who do return from TJ. There are a load of pitchers who never return from TJ surgery, also. You also weren’t considering what you just said earlier about how poor the medical and/or training staff has been with the Reds, what you couldn’t see the last 2 years but others could see quite easily.

      • Steve Mancuso

        There aren’t many pitchers of Bailey’s stature (150+ starts, 8 years major leagues, 3 years of sub-4 ERA) who don’t return from TJS. If its easy to find them, then name a few of them, please. Most of the pitchers who don’t return are either marginal guys or ones who just give up. An extremely large percentage of established major league pitchers return to being major league pitchers after TJS. I could list dozens. How many can you list who didn’t?

        I didn’t say the Reds had a poor medical or training staff. In fact, if anything I said the opposite.

      • Steve Mancuso

        You said: There are a load of pitchers who never return from TJ surgery. I asked you to name a few. Still waiting on that.

        Here are some of the pitchers who have returned from Tommy John, ones who have had success afterward: Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, A. J. Burnett, John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, David Wells, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Ivan Nova, Jordan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, Jose Fernandez, Yu Darvish, Rick Ankiel, Eric Bedard, Chris Capuano., Carlos Carrasco, Ryan Dempster, Scott Feldman, Eric Gagne, Jaime Garcia, Jason Grilli, Jason Isringhausen, Tommy John, John Lackey, Jon Lieber, Francisco Liriano, Steven Matz, Matt Moore, Jamie Moyer, Joe Nathan, Jose Rijo, Fernando Rodney, Danny Salazar, Anibal Sanchez, Joakim Soria, Rafael Soriano, Edinson Volquez, Billy Wagner, Kerry Wood

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        I never said it was doctors. I’ve always said it was the medical and/or training staff. It might be the strength coach. It might be strengthening exercises that Price brought here with him (we have had an awful lot of pitchers on the DL since he’s been here; I remember his second year here, we were reaching for AA pitchers just to cover innings). It might be the strength coach. It could even be the player simply working too hard to get back. But, something is going on there.

      • Steve Mancuso

        Do you have any data that the Reds have more injuries to their pitching staff than the average organization? If not, why would you make this claim?

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        You know the way to, Steve M. I don’t need to show you how to look up the data.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        Or any of the other websites, like Fangraphs.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        “There aren’t many pitchers of Bailey’s stature (150+ starts, 8 years major leagues, 3 years of sub-4 ERA) who don’t return from TJS”

        There aren’t that many pitchers with those numbers who have TJS, period, Steve M. Actually, they would probably have 150+ starts in fewer seasons than that. You know, like Leake.

        Not to mention, you are questioning where I am getting my numbers? Just where are you getting your numbers? And, remember, it’s numbers, not names.

      • Steve Mancuso

        You said: There are a load of pitchers who never return from TJ surgery. I asked you to name a few. Still waiting on that.

        Here are some of the pitchers who have returned from Tommy John, ones who have had success afterward: Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, A. J. Burnett, John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, David Wells, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Ivan Nova, Jordan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, Jose Fernandez, Yu Darvish, Rick Ankiel, Eric Bedard, Chris Capuano., Carlos Carrasco, Ryan Dempster, Scott Feldman, Eric Gagne, Jaime Garcia, Jason Grilli, Jason Isringhausen, Tommy John, John Lackey, Jon Lieber, Francisco Liriano, Steven Matz, Matt Moore, Jamie Moyer, Joe Nathan, Jose Rijo, Fernando Rodney, Danny Salazar, Anibal Sanchez, Joakim Soria, Rafael Soriano, Edinson Volquez, Billy Wagner, Kerry Wood

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        Oh, remember, Steve M, when you are looking for those numbers, make sure you define just what success is. For, it seems like to me that you are directly implying that Homer will be back to his old self very soon. In many studies, they don’t define that as success. They define success as simply being able to get back to the major league mound, period, much less having any success.

  22. KetteringRedsFan

    (Posted prior topic – moved here for visibility and relevance. Apologies for redundant redundancy……)

    General observation:

    -Everyone- here is working on the presumption that (assuming he can pitch) Arroyo, because he has been a starter, would be used as a starter. Rigid conception of role.

    Given Bailey out (still) two marginal starters (Adelman, Feldman) and a bunch of candidates with unproven reliability and duration (Reed, Bob Steve just for openers) due to control and long-ball issues, it would appear that we have a raft full of 5 inning starters in the rotation.

    Would Arroyo (if/when he serves with the big club, not Louisville) be better utilized as the long reliever of choice – 2-4 inning stints with shorter (two-three?) day turnarounds? Sort of what LeCure used to provide. Also the option of a short-duration spot start when the inevitable DL roll calls and Louisville Shuttle kick in.

    Advantage: would stabilize the rotation to a degree, would (hopefully) salvage some poor starts, would have Arroyo on hand to work with and council the youth.

    Disadvantage: Assumes he can pitch, for openers, but we already know that. Athis age, does he have a recovery trajectory that matches the work load, he’s not down at Louisville mentoring the youth, we don’t have Corky Miller to catch for him.

    Just thinking….feel free to slap this down.

  23. WVRedlegs

    With his new surgery for Bailey and his impending DL stint to start the season, and with Mesoraco’s uncertainty, we will see what GM Dick Williams is made of concerning roster construction and roster management. How Williams deviates from the old mold of Walt Jocketty and employs his own methods with roster construction will be interesting to watch unfold. Will there be 3 catchers on the 25-man roster to start the season? Will there be 13 pitchers on the 25-man to start? Or both? That will leave for a very thin bench of 2 players. Versatility and flexibility will have to be key in those two players then. Will Cozart and BP start the season on the 25-man? The management of the roster for the first 2 months in particular will be critical too.

  24. Matt WI

    Raisel for starter. Not going to be a lot of high leverage situations to insert him into if the starters are beleaguered… unless they are willing to use him before the 5th inning. Smirk.

  25. Old-school

    Bailey throws a splitter…..A pitch many teams have since forbade for their young pitchers. Joe Madden and many others say the split stresses the elbow and is a bad pitch. Some say it simply ruins arms. It’s my understanding the change up of Bob Steve was an off shoot grip of a splitter and that was a source of conflict in the past with the Reds.

  26. Jay King

    I knew it!!!! I knew it!!!! This contract is such a wash. If Bailey ever pitches again he should pay the team. This contract has been a total disaster and I guess that’s the risk you take signing someone to big money long term.

  27. Abdul

    LOL….he’ll never pitch another game for the Red’s. He’s smoked them for $106MM. He’ll be like Marshall and won’t pitch until another team picks him up.