2017 Reds

FanGraphs Fan Projections

One of my favorite things every off season – FanGraphs Fan Projections – is now up and running. For some reason, Reds fans are often underrepresented at FanGraphs and right now the only player with enough data to show a projection is Joey Votto. Anyhow, head over and tell them what you think will happen.

Here’s the link to get you started. 

13 thoughts on “FanGraphs Fan Projections

  1. Get out of my head!!! I did all mine this morning and was thinking about putting something like this up!!

    Here’s where I ended up (by WAR)…

    Votto – 4.6
    Hamilton – 2.7
    Peraza – 2.3
    Cozart – 2.2
    Suarez – 2.0
    Winker – 1.5
    Schebler – 0.9
    Barnhart – 0.8
    Duvall – 0.7
    Herrera – 0.4
    Mesoraco – 0.2
    Phillips – -0.4

    I assumed most regulars would have a full season, I assumed Winker would be called up in May, Herrera would play about 80-90 games, and Mesoraco would play about 30-40 games, with Barnhart playing about 120.

    By wOBA, I ended up with Votto>>>Winker>Schebler>Suarez for my top 4 Reds hitters.

    • I’m higher on Herrera, but we’re not too far away from each other otherwise.

      • Yeah, my projection for Herrera is based on me putting him as a not-great-defender. I haven’t actually seen him play defense, so admittedly, my numbers for him and more feeeel. And I have him as playing only about 80 games, so in a full season, I’d have him around 0.8-1.0 WAR, I think.

      • Ceiling? Well, that involves him developing power. He has a sufficient frame to add some mass, but he’d also need some approach/mechanical changes for more power. He’s so geared towards contact right now it makes homers hard to come by…

        So… I’d say his absolute ceiling based on what we know is something like a .310/.350/.425 with 15 homers and above-average (not stellar) defense at SS. That’s, if my brain power is working today, about a 3.5 WAR player given the SS position.

        Really, he’s a low-ceiling guy to me. If he is an average SS defender (which I think he is) and if doesn’t strike out much (which I don’t think he will) and if he learns to be a bit more selective with steals to increase his success rate (which I think he will), he basically can’t be worse than 1-1.5 WAR in a full season.

  2. I do it every year but it’s going to be a bit for me. I haven’t even started my projections yet.

      • I usually put my projections into Fangraphs Fan projections. My gut isn’t as accurate as my PGPS model… Pretty Good Projection System … Which isn’t as good as Marcel, ZiPS, Steamer, etc but is fun to do and has been at least better than my gut as far as accuracy.

  3. Is this season over with yet? I can’t think of a season that I least look forwarded to as 2017. Zero interest in watching a bunch of over paid whiners and AAA flunkies that no other team wanted.

    • I’m sure plenty of teams would want Winker, Reed, Garrett, Finnegan, Stephenson, Peraza, Herrera, etc.

      Sure, Peraza got traded twice… you have to give value to get value. You can’t get a good return for bad prospects.

      Sure, Herrera got traded… the Mets fans were furious they gave up Herrera for Bruce.

      It’s fine if you have no interest, but your reasons seem dubious.

      • Interesting too that now the Mets seem to be regretting even picking up the option on Bruce. Maybe they really would rather have not made that trade after all.

  4. Not excited to see any of them. Each player mentioned has major flaws. lack of power or high walk rates. Nothing exciting to see and 0 chance of winning anything except a participation trophy.
    Anyone tell me our farm system is top 10? Laughable

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