2017 Reds

Early 2017 Reds pitching projections

Last week, I covered the first early 2017 Reds hitting projections. This week, we will take a look at the 2017 Reds pitching projections from Steamer. As a reminder, one of the more popular projection systems, ZiPS is still likely a few weeks out (they were released on December 11th last season for the Reds). ZiPS is typically known as more reliable, while Steamer is typically more pessimistic. So take these for what they are.

reds-pitching-projections

Raisel Iglesias leads the way as the Reds best pitcher (3.64 ERA/3.73 FIP). Steamer, like all of us, are confused on if he will be a starter or not. Either way, he should be the Reds best pitcher, which doesn’t come as a surprise.

Anthony DeSclafani and Homer Bailey lead the way in fWAR among SP, but both pitchers have just slightly above average ERA’s and FIP’s. The biggest surprise is that Cody Reed leads the way among SP (if you exclude Iglesias) in both ERA (3.82) and FIP (3.98).

The most encouraging thing is the bullpen projections. If Iglesias is the closer, that makes the pen even better. Cingrani, Lorenzen, Diaz, and Wood all have ERA’s below 3.76, and all have high strikeout numbers.

It will however be a very long season if Tim Adleman actually makes 19 starts.

17 thoughts on “Early 2017 Reds pitching projections

  1. So much of this depends on health, and it (mostly) neglects development of prospects that this is almost meaningless. Bailey and Iglesias are total wild cards relative to health and durability. Lorenzen should pitch a good bit more than 55 innings, and Adleman better not get 19 starts. Stephenson, Garrett, Reed and maybe one or two other prospects may get a lot more starts than listed here, or may get none at all. I’m much more interested in the makeup of the bullpen and the battle for starting slots than Steamer pitching projections. And as you point out Nick, even those starters who can reasonably be expected to have a regular slot may be underrated here. So just because it’s free and everyone will forget I even made these predictions if (when) I’m wrong, I’ll predict that Bailey is top five in the 2017 Cy Young voting, Reed has a break through year, and Iglesias and Lorenzen both get serious consideration for an All Star spot coming out of the bullpen. We can dream, right?

  2. Thank goodness these predictions are almost always wrong. Those stats would indicated a losing season close to 90 games. Impossible to predict the breakout season or how well someone responds from injury recovery. The more mid 20’s guys we have the more likely we have a chance of a breakout season from one of them. I don’t see any CY Young winners but I am certainly more optimisitc than the above projected stat lines. With that said I wouldn’t mind seeing the Reds spend money in free agency and picking up an all star pitcher (if any are still available).

  3. I am not liking Steamer at all. They seem like numbers pulled out of a hat based on last years stats.
    The bullpen has a look of Iglesias, Lorenzen, Wood and Cingrani. Jumbo and Peralta shouldn’t even be on the 40-man roster, let alone in the bullpen on the 25-man roster. Not much ready in the minors to step up to a ML bullpen.
    That leaves 3 spots to fill. There will be a slew of bargain basement signings of pitchers to minor league deals, but rarely does something good materialize out of that. There are many bullpen pitchers available out on the open free agent market. But strangely enough with the Reds coming off a very bad bullpen year, only a handful are a serious fit for the Reds.
    The Reds could look at hard throwing RHP Daniel Hudson formerly of Arizona. Formerly a starter, he has 4 pitches, and he averaged 96 mph on his fastball last year. He had an inconsistent 2016, but his peripherals weren’t bad. His 2015 bullpen numbers were very good. Hudson could be on the verge of a breakout as a closer. He could be at the back of the pen with Iglesias and Lorenzen, and take Jumbo’s spot. Cingrani and Wood would compliment this trio.
    That leaves 2 spots. LHers are needed. Former Dodgers bullpen pitcher, LHP JP Howell would make a nice target and addition. Or Mr. Scrabble, LHP Marc Rzepczynski, might make a good target to acquire.
    The last spot then could be for the long man in the bullpen and can be either RH or LH. Adelman could fit that spot.

    • Somebody, Doug Gray, I believe, pointed out that Jumbo pitched better than Cingrani. Regarding Cingrani, our memories are too long: He had good results early in his MLB career before the league figured him out. He seems unlikely to be a component of a good bullpen, barring a miraculous change in his command and the addition of a legitimate off-speed pitch.

      • I beg to differ Cingrani was good until his shoulder acted up. His 6 or so last starts prior to his going on the dl the first time were atrocious. His 15 before that were record setting.

        • I don’t put as much weight on his early starts as you do–the point of my first comment. He didn’t look good enough for the results he was getting: Hitting-speed fastball, no secondary pitches to speak of. He hid the ball well, but people (MLB hitters, in particular) figure that sort of thing out, as they seem to have in Cingrani’s case. He still hasn’t learned a good secondary pitch, and, though he throws a bit harder than before, he frequently lacks command. He’s not awful, but he’s not reliable.

  4. Is there somewhere to go that explains where these numbers come from? I went to the link above for Steamer and it appears to show predictions of what Sam LeCure, Ryan Mattheus and Manny Parra will do for the Reds in 2017, with ERAs of 4.07, 4.11 and 3.65 respectively … in only 1 inning pitched each. Of course, those are mathematical impossibilities. And, of course, all three are long gone. I used to play Strat-O-Matic baseball a lot, including the online simulations. It seems that the Steamer stats could be extracted from something like that. Any insight, anyone?

  5. I like to think of these projections as betting lines. They are not necessarily trying to predict exactly what will happen, but instead trying to find a 50th percentile projection that will bring even money on both sides. In other words, a line where there is a 50 percent chance they go over and a 50 percent chance they go under.

    Also, steamer is not good at projecting playing time. So disregard the innings and WAR totals. Its the rate stats that matter.

    If I had to bet, I would bet Disco, Iggy, and Lorenzen to over perform and Cingrani, Reed, and Garrett to under perform the rate stats in those projections.

  6. This seems very pessimistic for the ERA on quite a few of these pitchers in my opinion.

    Here’s the ones I think are pessimistic, and here’s my ERA projections:

    Iglesias (if he’s a starter) – 3.20 ERA
    Iglesias (if he’s a reliever) – 2.50 ERA
    DeSclafani – 3.60 ERA
    Straily – 4.20 ERA
    Lorenzen (strictly as a reliever) – 3.00 ERA

    Reed and Stephenson’s projections probably can’t be taken at face value either, since Steamer projects each to be split between starting and being in the bullpen.

  7. I’m surprised Jumbo is even still in the mix for the bullpen. Hate to be a Donnie Downer but our staff doesn’t scare anybody unless Homer and Disco are healthy and pitch effectively the whole year.

  8. So much about this team depends on Bailey it seems to me. With him as the 1, it makes every other starter more effective because they are lower in the rotation. I’d love to see him make a full comeback, but there are pitchers who never fully recover from Tommy John. It’s a miracle surgery but it’s not a guarantee. At this point, it seems more and more likely that Bailey is among those who never make it back.

    • I’ve never understood that line of thinking. A pitcher is either effective, or he’s not. Without Bailey, only ONE ‘lesser’ starter is needed. It doesn’t really matter if Disco is the ” #1 ” guy or the ” #2 ” guy. Either way, he faces the same opposition lineup. So yes, that ONE starter would theoretically be impacted, but not everyone.

      The only ‘impact’ to “every other starter” would possibly be the worst pitching stat W-L. Disco giving up 3 runs against the opposition’s #1, may result in an L, but lined up with the #2 may end with a W. Either way, he still gave up 3 runs.

  9. This seems like such nonsense. Many of these guys have shown a propensity to get better and better each year. These projections don’t seem to line up with the way the pitchers are trending. Also, don’t you have to say, at some point, that no one has any idea whatsoever about Homer? There is absolutely nothing to go on other than he seems to be consistently fragile. And why aren’t wins and losses important anymore, as a tool to assess a pitcher? Anyone who had a .500 w/l record on the Reds last year should be deemed a success.

  10. The rays are shopping starters. I’d trade Hamilton and Bob Steve for Chris Archer and bullpen help. Team control and adds proven starter for years with Disco. Odorizzi is reportedly available as well.

  11. I think this is pretty obvious. Barring any trade or terrific improvement/collapse by a player, 4 of the starters are going to be Homer (I still say trade him), Straily, Finnegan, and DeSclafani. The #5 man will be up for grabs amongst most everyone else.

    I do believe you can put Cingrani, Lorenzen, and Racial in the pen. Out of the others, whoever they decide to go to. Bullpen is such a crapshoot, I don’t think I would be surprised with anything they put out there.

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