Money stuff

Report: Dan Straily just misses Super Two status

Tim Dierkes of the site MLB Trade Rumors confirmed last night that the Super Two cutoff for arbitration eligibility in 2017 is 2.131.

Translation: Players with at least two years and 131 days qualify for an extra year of arbitration.

By contract, major league players are under team control for six years of service time. The first three of those they work for whatever the team wants to pay them, a figure bounded only by the league minimum salary established by the Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and the MLB Players Association. The minimum salary has been about $508,000 recently. After those three seasons, players have the right to arbitrate their salary if they aren’t satisfied with the team offer. (You can read more detail about service time and arbitration clocks here.)

A few players at the upper end of the range between two and three seasons of service time, qualify for what’s called Super Two status and are eligible for arbitration instead of league minimum. The Super Two cut-off point varies each year based on the number of players at each level of service time. The top 22 percent in terms of service time qualify for ST. So the cut-off can be determined only after regular season service time has finished accruing league wide.

The one Reds player who might have reached Super Two status in 2017 is pitcher Dan Straily, who had accumulated 2 years and 126 days of service time. Since Straily’s service time ended up falling just short of the cut-off, he can’t elect arbitration and will earn what the team wants to pay him, presumably league minimum. That saves the Reds several million dollars in 2017. One estimate had Straily’s arbitration-aided salary at $3.9 million.

The only Reds players eligible for arbitration in 2017 are: Zack Cozart (3rd year), Blake Wood (2nd year), Tony Cingrani (1st year) and Billy Hamilton (1st year). Most of the Reds roster will be made up of players earning league minimum.

12 thoughts on “Report: Dan Straily just misses Super Two status

    • Yep. The poor guy will have to ply his trade for a mere half a mil. Oh the humanity….!

    • Dan Straily earned any benefir he might have received after the 2016 season. The fact that he missed the super2 cutoff by 5 days does in-fact stink, but the issue really lies with MLB’s unwillingness to force a competitive framework on the teams through the CBA.

      The league minimum should be raised to something around $1MM. The soft cap needs to be raised to accomodate the influx of new $$$ rolling into MLB and the penatlies for exceeding the cap need teeth…big, sharp penetrating teeth. The minor league salaries need to be addressed. The joke of the system for managing international signings using an award basis for bonus pool determination has some merit, but the penalties for exceeding the bonus pool allotment create more competitive imbalance than creating any competitive balance. I’m not sure the basis for an international draft is anywhere close to implementation yet. If the overages were tied to the rule 4 draft and the penalties distributed among MLB teams along with the funds from the salary cap, the system might have more effectiveness in providing an impact on competitive balance.

    • Not out of the question that the Reds tender him at a pretty significant raise. Some teams do it as a “thank you”. It’s not likely to be anywhere near the $3.9-million he would have possibly gotten as a super-2 though.

      • I hadn’t remembered the Reds ever doing this (it does set a thorny precedent). But it looks like they paid Votto $525,000 in 2010 when the league minimum was around $410, 000. Some teams give graduated raises over the course of three years, like $500,000 then $510,000 then $520,000. Would be interesting to collect data on team practices in that area. I’ve never seen it.

        • The Angels paid Mike Trout $1 million in 2014, which was a record salary for a pre-arbitration player. Trout had been a 10+ WAR player in each of the previous two seasons. That’s paying $1 million for $140 million in value.

        • It’s usually not in the multi-million range and I don’t think it happens often. I’m not sure how often the Reds do it. The one that sticks out somewhat recently is the Angel’s tender to Trout of $1-million in 2014.

        • I think when the Angels gave Trout that $1 million, it was kind of a de facto down payment to the bigger deal that was to come just months later. $1 million was quite a bargain for that season, of course, but it had to be easier for Trout to take given what followed, something like $145 million over the next six years!

  1. We should probably bear in mind that the CBA expires on 1 December 2016. While both sides have indicated they expect a new agreement or at least an extension of some sort to be in place in time to avoid major upheaval, arbitration has historically been an area where tweaks and changes happen.

  2. I’ve recently finished research on something I’ve been working on-and-off all year long…

    Next week I’ll have a post going up about how much teams will pay for certain stats in salary arbitration. Unfortunately, for this pass I looked only at hitters, so I won’t be able to see how Straily’s situation fits with my model!

  3. I think the Reds need to ink him to a multi-year contract(say 5 years) because of his performance last year(20 quality starts). He has super command, deserves to be our opening day starter, & is like a 2nd pitching coach, It should be incentive sensitive, based on last year’s performance and in an amount, generally, of what 20 quality starters make. Otherwise, trading him should be an option.

    • No team would do that….none.

      He had a nice year after being ” the bad kind of free agent.” He has a number of analytical red flags that would give any reasonable person great pause in making a multi year commitment to him.

      Since every MLB team has WI Fi, his trade value is limited.

      Lastly, they don’t have to pay him more than x amount next year and they won’t….. if his BABIP normalizes then he has the potential to be rather bad.

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