Titanic Struggle Recap

Votto and Straily help Reds end losing skid

The four game losing streak is over. The Reds took care of the business in Milwaukee with a 6-1 win on Saturday evening. The Reds had lost eight of their last nine games entering tonight.

The Reds got rolling right away, as Joey Votto hit a two run home run in the first inning. That would be more than enough for Dan Straily. He allowed just one run over 6.2 innings, and the Reds bullpen finished the job. The Reds also padded the lead in the top of the ninth, thanks to some patient walks, and some shaky Brewers defense.

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (64-90) 6 10 0
Milwaukee Brewers (70-85) 1 6 1
W: Straily (14-8) L: Jungmann (0-5) S: ()
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

redsbrewerswpa

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Joey Votto’s 2-run home run with 1 out in the 1st inning, giving the Reds a 2-0 lead. That play increased the Reds chances of winning by 16.9% (from 50.2% to 67.1%).

Player of the Game

Dan Straily: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Just another really nice start from Dan Straily. I mentioned this is in the game preview, but it is really incredible that Straily leads the club in IP this season. Sure, his FIP shows he is due for some regression next season, but it is remarkable that he now has a 3.74 ERA this season. Well done Dan, well done.

I actually have to give a shoutout to my best man Matt. He gave me grief for saying that I liked Straily in the RN game preview before his first start with the Reds back in April.

Positives

Joey Votto hit his 26th home run of 2016 tonight in the 1st inning. It was Votto’s 4th HR in his last 14 PA. Votto also walked three times (once intentional). In both of the unintentional walks, Votto was down in the count 0-2 before he worked the walks. This guy is incredible.

Jose Peraza had another two hit night, and added a walk. Peraza is now hitting .330/.354/.425 in 222 PA.

Scott Schebler had a three hit night, including a double.

Eugenio Suarez also had a two hit night.

Adam Duvall had a “hustling” double in the 6th inning, and then stole third base by getting a huge jump.

Michael Lorezen got Straily out of a jam in the 7th, and then pitched a scoreless in 8th inning. Raisel Iglesias pitched a perfect 9th inning.

Negatives

I’ve got nothing tonight.

Not so random thoughts………..

Up Next:

Reds at Brewers
Saturday, 2:10 PM
TV: None; Radio: 700 WLW
Brandon Finnegan (4.10 ERA) vs Wily Peralta (5.21 ERA)

30 thoughts on “Votto and Straily help Reds end losing skid

    • Welsh and whoever was with him Friday night were talking about the sacrifice leaders by team. Welsh had the good sense to point out that maybe it isn’t such a great stat given that the leaders are all among the worst teams in the league. That’s totally paraphrasing what Welsh actually said but at least he wasn’t complimenting the Reds for being in love with the sacrifice bunt.

  1. Nice recap, Nick. I like your mention of Straily’s innings pitched – he’s up to 178 now.
    He’s doing what the Reds paid Simon $2M to do.

    And when he did lose it, walking a weak hitter on 4 pitches with 2 outs in the 7th, putting the tying run at the plate, Price had Lorenzen ready. “Little” decisions like that win games.

    • We won’t ever know but I wonder what would have happened had Price pulled Disco after the first walk Friday night and brought in either Lorenzen or Iglesias. Just looking at the number of first batters Tony C has faced that walked or got hits made bringing him in with the bases loaded risky, to put it mildly.

  2. I picked this game to watch the whole thing and lucked out. A really nicely pitched game by the Reds. Sraily was on his game, pitching to the edge of the plate in/out, up/down, changing speeds, etc.

    Lorenzen was outstanding. His fastball used to be straight, now nothing he throws is straight. He had a lot of pitches breaking out of the strike zone just as the batter was swinging (and missing). His only straight pitch was a fastball that froze Braun for strike 3.

    And Iglesis was just ridiculous – he toyed with the hitters, total domination.

    • The strikeout of Braun was sweet. Lorenzen had thrown him a couple 78-80 MPH curve balls that Braun barely got a piece of. Then, Lorenzen threw gas on the corner for the strikeout. Braun immediately began walking toward the dugout.

      Fun to watch Lorenzen pitch.

    • Also, Lorenzen’s fastball isn’t straught anymore because he now throws a sinker and cutter more often than his straight 4-seamer. He didn’t throw either the sinker or cutter last year, and both those pitches move a lot. They are hard too. His stuff is very different than it was during his rookie season.

      • Maybe the Reds will prove to be correct in assessing his future being on the mound rather than the outfield when they drafted him.

      • Agreed with these observations. He used to have such a straight and flat fastball that it negated the benefit of the velocity. Those pitches show terrific action. Coupled with improved control, these are the reasons I would give him a shot at the starting rotation next year.

  3. In addition to his stuff, Lorenzen impresses me with his poise. In the 8th inning, he threw a 2-1 pitch to Carter that was right over the center of the plate and and about 6 inches from the top of the strike zone. The ump somehow called it a ball.

    Even the Brewer broadcasters couldn’t believe it – the ump is sure getting a demerit on that one, they said. Lorenzen didn’t even flinch, just went about his business and retired Carter from there.

  4. Joey Votto, best hitter in the game and I hope he’s a Red his whole career.

    But his defense has made me cringe all season. In the 8th, on Gannett’s hard ground ball that was within his reach, he dives and it goes right under his glove. The exact phrase the Brewer broadcasters used was “dove over it” – I’ve heard that phrase used so many times this season for ground balls that have gotten past him.

    I jus hope that his defense doesn’t get worse.

    • The chances are Votto’s defense is going to continue to decline. He just turned 33 years old. You need look no further than our own Brandon Phillips to see what’s in store for him, and Phillips was a much better defender and played a much more difficult position to begin with.

      Votto has surprised me in that he has at least maintained his offensive production, but I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop. This is why I had hoped the Reds would trade him now while they can still get some really, really good value for him, just like they should have done with Phillips 2 or 3 years ago.

      • Other teams understand that his defense is in decline, that the offense will decline at some point and that he has 7 years and over 150 million left on his deal. He has full no trade protection. Trading him would be difficult to impossible

        • A homecoming to Toronto where he wouldn’t have to play defense is perhaps the top possibility for Votto ever leaving the Reds. I would not be at all surprised if eventually that sort of situation will be up to JV to decide with both teams willing/ wanting to do a deal if he will approve.

  5. I really love the StatCast stuff. The Brewer broadcasters were saying that Straily puts all kinds of time into studying “analytics” for hitters, and mentioned quadrants, holes, “don’t go there” locations, and spin rate.

    I know that spin rate effects the trajectory of a pitch, but I hadn’t heard of associating it with hitters. I assume it means that some hitters are more susceptible to high spin rates (sharp breaking pitches) than others.
    I would think a hitter like Votto recognizes a lot of spin.

  6. I wonder if Straily is little like Cueto in the fip department. I believe Cueto’s fip was usually significantly higher than his era. I believe redlegnation did an article about that a few years back.

    • I think he’s done enough this year that he has earned the chance for the Reds to find out if that’s the case. I mean, it isn’t like the Reds are going to contend next year. They may as well see if Straily can be one of the rare guys that outperforms his peripherals.

  7. Granted this game was against the Brew Crew and a starting pitcher of questionable capability at the major league level, but…

    Peraza => 2-4 w/ 1-BB
    Schebler => 3-5 w/ 1-2B
    Votto => 1-2 w/ 1-HR & 3-BB
    Duvall => 1-4 w/ 1-2B & 1-BB
    Suarez => 2-4 w/ 1-BB

    Those are names we expect to see in the lineup to begin the 2017 season and that ain’t bad at all.

  8. What to make of Scott Schebler???

    During the 1st month+ of the 2016 season, Schebler managed a 7.3% BB%, 29.0% SO% & a pitiful .590 OPS in 69 PA, earning a trip to AAA. Then at AAA, Schebler put up monster production with a 6.0% BB%, 18.5% SO% & .934 OPS, earning another shot against major league pitching.

    Schebler started his 2nd go-round with a monster game (3-5 w/ a game-winning, walkoff HR) but then tanked over the next 7 games & 25 PA (0.0% BB%, 36.0% SO% & .290 OPS). This was the Scott Schebler that earned an early demotion to AAA with a pressing, all-or-nothing approach at the plate.

    Since that 7 game skid, Schebler has been a different hitter. Over the last 41 games & 163 PA, Schebler has been different hitter at the plate. He’s refined his strike zone and hit to all fields rather than resorting to his pressing, all-or-nothing approach at the plate. This has produced results (8.6% BB%, 16.0% SO% & .850 OPS) at the major league level that could lead to a nice career as a corner OF for the 25-year-old Scott Schebler.

    The Old Cossack votes for more of the last 41 games!

    • So the Reds got both Schebler and Peraza in the Todd Frazier trade. Is that trade starting to look a lot better than it did at the time it was made? I’m liking Schebler and really, really liking Peraza.

      • Yes, if those guys both turn into productive MLB players (even if one is a utility guy and the other a regular starter), that trade looks good for the Reds. I totally poo pooed that trade when the Reds made it too. I’m very much hoping that they make me eat crow.

  9. Jose Fernandez and atleast 2 others killed. What a tragedy!! That kid had an amazing career going! He was about to be a father too! Horrible!!

    • WOW, that is too sad. He could pitch!!! Seemed to have a very outgoing positive outlook on life, at least from the few interviews I heard him do.

  10. The bunt stat confirmed what I’ve been saying all along: total waste of an out plus it doesn’t always accomplish much. If it’s the Pitcher, okay, I understand but I’ve seen Peraza and BP given the bunt sign. You kidding me? Price is bunt happy and that drives me nuts. Especially, in September with nothing on the line.

  11. The sac bunt statistic and the corollary to the bad teams is interesting. I don’t think the sac bunting makes the teams bad, but I think it is “defensive baseball” in trying to win close games when you are a bad team, knowing that you have limited talent.
    Craig Counsell is supposed to be quite a student of advanced metrics, and yet he is still calling for sac bunts. It would be interesting for an enterprising individual to look at stats over the last dozen years and see how the number of sac bunts per team correlates to wins and losses.

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