2016 Reds

Breaking Down Dilson Herrera

A little over a month ago Dilson Herrera was traded from the Mets in exchange for Red’s right fielder Jay Bruce. Herrera is a 22 year old right handed second baseman of Columbian decent. He was signed by the Pirates in 2010, spent a few seasons in their farm system, and was eventually traded to the Mets in 2013.

Herrera progressed through the Met’s farm system relatively quick, making his major league debut in August of 2014. When he did arrive in the big leagues, Herrera seemed over matched. He never batted above .220 and his OBP was in the low .300s. Below are the stat lines from his major league service time with the Mets:

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Herrera was called up both times by the Mets to fill an injury void in their infield. Many Mets’ fans believed that Dilson Herrera was going to be their future starting second basemen in 2016, but his play during his initial call ups never did much to solidify those beliefs with the fan base.

None the less, Dilson Herrera is an extremely interesting prospect for the Reds. Herrera has a load of potential based on his minor league play. In his 2014 and 2015 minor league campaigns, Herrera hit over .323 with an OBP hovering around .380 and OPS no lower than .858.  Those are all very good numbers that display just how much potential he has at the plate. Below is a summary of his minor league stats from 2011 to his current season in Louisville with the Reds:

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Herrera’s current 2016 minor league season is some cause for concern. He has basically regressed in every important statistical category and has especially struggled in Triple-A Louisville. Some site him being hurt (shoulder) as part of the issue, but his production this year is somewhat disappointing none the less.

Baring some unforeseen situation, Dilson Herrera will be the future starting second basemen for the Reds. Whether that is going to happen in 2017 or 2018 is the question. Brandon Phillips is currently blocking Herrera’s position until the end of the 2017 season. Herrera is still relatively young (22) and could find himself starting the year in Louisville if the Reds are unable to move Brandon Phillips in the off season.

From what I have read from various scouting sources is that Herrera projects to be a solid middle infielder. His ceiling isn’t All Star caliber high, but he has the ability to be a good offensive player with average to above average defensive ability. It will be interesting to watch the transition from Brandon Phillips to Dilson Herrera over the next year. Phillips has been an elite defensive second basemen and a solid offensive player for the Reds over the last decade and there is sure to be some production drop off during the initial transition.

With the trading for Dilson Herrera the Reds seem to have solidified their future starting infield. An infield consisting of Joey Votto, Jose Peraza, Dilson Herrera, and Nick Senzel could be fun to watch for many years to come.

12 thoughts on “Breaking Down Dilson Herrera

  1. In his time in Louisville, he posted a 13.8% walk rate, 372 OBP, and a 130 wRC+. Granted, it’s only in a 24-game sample, but I like how those numbers look so far.

  2. It will be interesting to see how the 2B situation turns out. There are folks who post or comment here, myself included, who believe the person Herrera may have to best for the spot over time is Eugenio Suarez. Then there is the SS situation. If the guy from Cuba (Rodriguez) were to win the SS position over Peraza, Peraza might well fall back into the 2B mix also.

    • Hopefully 2B is sorted out before Senzel would be ready to take 3B from Suarez. If Suarez is not the guy at that point he could always be traded.

  3. Why spend $7 million on AlfRod if he can’t hit? I still don’t understand the logic.

    • This a mystery to me and others. Why the Reds drafted a no-hit shortstop to play in a hitters park should be investigated as one of the dumbest signings ever. The Reds are over loaded with infield prospects who all appear to be better hitters than Rodriquez. The Reds paid $7 million to sign him which was almost double what other teams paid to sign the 3 shortstops picked ahead of him. There are reasons teams lose 95 games and signings like this show why.

      • I figure he’s somebody in the organizations cousin, or something of the sort.

  4. Assuming that Herrera has a decent glove at 2nd, in my mind his future boils down to OBP. The Reds will have some power in the middle of the lineup, whether that’s Votto, Duvall, Schebler, or even Senzel or Winker or – dare we dream – Mesoraco? but the key to this offense in my mind will be OBP at the top and bottom of the order. I suspect Winker will be more about on base and less about over the wall, and I like the progress Hamilton is making. But if the Reds are going to have a potent offense they need men on base from the 1, 2, 7 and 8 slots. If Herrara is one of those guys he’s the Reds 2nd baseman as long as he’s healthy. If not, Suarez probably slides over when Senzel gets to Cincinnati. But it’s nice to have options, isn’t it?

  5. Exactly, Nick. And, if you’re going to criticize someone for making an error, at least make sure you begin your sentences with a capital letter.

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