Titanic Struggle Recap

Reds Recap is Joey, Tucker and Scott

The Cincinnati Reds (63-86) broke their four-game losing streak and knocked the Pirates (74-75) below .500. The team heads out for their last road trip of the season. They next play three night games in the Friendly Confines starting tomorrow. Then they visit Milwaukee and St. Louis.

Pittsburgh 4 • Cincinnati 7 | FanGraphs  

Dan Straily had a Dan Straily start. He gave up three runs in six innings. Along the way Straily walked four and struck out five. He pitched behind in the count much of the day and generated few ground balls (23.5%). I hope the Reds front office hasn’t fallen in love with Straily the way today’s radio broadcast pair has. Right role: Straily as long-man in the bullpen. Straily did snap his 0-48 career donut at the plate today, lining a single into right field. Within seconds of the game ending:

Michael Lorenzen pitched two shutout innings, with two strikeouts and no walks. Take your pick because the old school (ERA 2.57) and new school (SIERA 2.90) agree on how well he’s pitched this year. The Reds may want to keep Lorenzen in the bullpen (my guess is the closer role), but his performance could knock down the door, or at least earn a serious look in the starting rotation.

Tucker Barnhart drove in four runs with a pair of sacrifice flies and a double.

Scott Schebler had three hits, including a double. When Schebler was demoted to AAA in early May, he was hitting just .188/.246/.344. His run production (wRC+) was 48. Schebler has hit well (.285/.357/.464) since he was recalled after in August after Jay Bruce was traded. Schebler’s run production is now 103. Imagine a Reds roster good enough that Schebler is the power, left-handed hitting bat off the bench.

Joey Votto was 4-for-4 with a walk a double and a homer. It was Votto’s 25th homer of the year. He’s now hitting .319/.432/.531. Votto trails only Kris Bryant and Daniel Murphy in the NL in run production with wRC+ of 153. Still JoeyMVP.

Eugenio Suarez committed his 22nd error of the season. I wasn’t able to watch the game, but according to the radio broadcast, Jose Peraza had his first iffy day in centerfield. Just guessing that’s because he’s an infielder.

99 thoughts on “Reds Recap is Joey, Tucker and Scott

  1. If Hamilton were in CF today, that would have been a shutout.

    For that matter, Holt would easily have caught the 2 run triple and possibly the HR.

    • He didn’t look good in center, but I’ll bet that Steve is right: He’s an infielder. He could probably learn it–Billy did–but the Reds need him in the infield, anyway.

  2. About the most I ever wanted to see a sac bunt was with DeJesus batting in the 7th.
    An important insurance run on 2nd, none out. DeJesus is a good bunter and not a good hitter, and Barnhart is MONEY with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out.

  3. It’s clear from the statistical splits, but even just watching you can see how Iglesias dominates RHed hitters but lefties give him some trouble.

    Next year I want to see him and Lorenzen in the pen, both throwing at least 100 innings.

    • ^this x 1000. I have no issues with these two in the bullpen with their health history, as long as they’re utilized as a hybrid, “high-leverage, multiple-inning-use” pitcher. They have the stuff for starters but Lorenzen has never been stretched out and Iglesias seems too frail for ~200 innings.

      If Baker had these two back in 2012. I have no issue with him handing the ball to either one of these two in Game 5 for a few innings.

      • Right, they have nasty stuff. And both are relievers that the Reds tried to convert to starters. They had to shut Iglesias down with his shoulder problem 3 times as a starter. Lorenzon lost velocity and was not pitch-efficient as a starter, and also had arm problems.

        The main point is the value of having those two guys pitch in total more than 200 high leverage innings. High-quality relief pitchers (especially closers) have been underutilized for more than 30 years now. There’s a rebellion going on among smart managers and this would be a big step.

        I could hardly believe it when I heard Price say we’re not going to go with “7th inning guy, 8th inning guy, closer, set roles like that.” But I’m still not sure whether he was just talking about 2016 or into the future.

  4. Steve, wake up and smell the roses. Straily pitches misses like Robin Roberts and Greg Maddox. You’re carrying this sybermatics ? too far. This guy is a number one starter. He hits the target and gets outs like no one else on the staff.

    • A Number One starter? Do you really mean that? You just compared Straily to two Hall of Famers. If I’ve missed something and he becomes a legitimate #1 Starter, I will gladly come back on here and apologize but that seems unfathomable to me.

      • #1 starter stuff is either a troll job or, as my 5 yr old daughter says, “being the sarcasm”…

        That stated, I find it odd that Steve will point out the foibles of the announcers (without fail), yet is utterly blind to his own whipping boys.

        We all talk about being supportive of the team and critical of play, not players. I wish BP were a Nat as well, but he isn’t, and hasn’t been half as horrid as some writers on this site would have you believe this year for the Reds. I get that everyone’s (least) favorite announcing family overrates guys like BP and Straily. All while unnecessarily denegrating Votto. But why engage at that level and try to belittle “their” guy or guys when it is also unnecessary?

        Dan Straily has more than replaced Mike Leake this season at a fraction of the cost. Straily is a clear “bright spot” or positive in a season where the Reds will most likely be among the 5 worst teams in baseball.

        I agree that in the long term I hope the Reds have 5 better starting pitching options than Straily, but that isn’t close to the case in 2016 and I am willing to bet any amount of $ you want (barring trade or injury) that Straily is among the rotation to begin 2017. Of course I want Reed, Stephenson, and Garrett to develop into #1 starters each and reduce Straily to a pen arm. Of course I would also save this type of commentary for a separate article and not whip my personal dead horse if I were talking about the Reds game and Straily’s performance in the Sept 18th game against the Pirates.

        As was noted above, my take away from watching the game is Straily missed Billy more than anything as Peraza not only missed the tough catches Billy always makes for him, but also blew multiple other chances a decent CF would have made. Not sure how much I would blame Straily for that today.

        Glad the Reds salvaged a game and I hope Straily can continue his performance in 2017 as the 3rd, 4th, or 5th starter in the rotation.

        • Believe me, I pass up hundreds of opportunities to criticize the announcers.

        • Steve is a bit hard on Straily who has been the best Reds pitcher this season. He has earned a spot in next year’s rotation along with DeSclafani. All the other spots are open as I do not assume Homer is healthy yet. No one else has proved anything.

        • Steve: I am not a big fan of Thom and while I freely admit Marty is a curmudgeon and a biased opinionated announcer whose opinions I disagree with more and more, he is a Hall of Famer and part of a generation of Reds fans memories. How do you propose the new Reds leadership transition the radio/TV announcing?

          • The reality is that Marty will leave when Marty wants to leave and not before. In a sense, he’s earned that right, within limits. Given the personal situation, there’s probably no replacing Thom until Marty is ready to go. That’s the downside of nepotism.

            The other announcers – removed from Marty – are fine. The TV team of Jim Kelch and Chris Welsh would be fine. Brantley is fine, too. When they need to hire another announcer, they should make sure he/she has a working understanding of new statistics and isn’t hostile toward the people who follow them. For example, it’s ridiculous that our radio broadcast NEVER mentions on base percentage.

            If the Reds want to move forward smartly with the support of their fans, they can’t have fans evaluating hitters based on batting average and pitchers based on wins and losses.

            Marty was telling a great story this afternoon. I can’t remember what it was about. But it was charming. He has so many of those stories, but he seldom tells them during a game. His broadcast would be much easier to listen to (for me) if he drew more on his vast experience with players over the years and less on trying to analyze the game now. Vin Scully tells stories all the time and Marty could do that, too. I don’t know why he doesn’t because it seems like such a natural fit for him. It does take preparation, because most people can’t recall their stories just off the top of their heads.

        • I think Steve is speaking more to the fact to avoid looking at the W/L of the pitcher and the fact that although Straily has been an innings eater, that is all he’ll be. In this case he’s done a fine job of doing so and has been lucky to have some great defense behind him to make him look better. I like straily as a starter, but I think he needs to earn it. Competition creates performance, creates harder work. That’s why managers who avoid defined roles while respecting their players (Maddon) seem to do so well.

        • I don’t understand why Marty is hostile at times. I used to like his honesty about calling dumb base-running blunders exactly that and getting on pitchers who didn’t throw strikes. RLN will have a louder voice during the lean years.

      • I believe Straily will be in the rotation to start the year, unless other pitchers are so dominating in spring training that they force the Reds’ hand. I, too, hope we have five better options by Opening Day, but between the inconsistency that young players show and the idea of not burning service time needlessly, I’d be surprised if Straily isn’t in the rotation to start the year.

        I’m very concerned that putting Iglesias back in the rotation is only going to leave him injured again. They were supposedly trying to build up his shoulder strength this past spring, and look how that turned out. (Though I believe they also rushed him back, which didn’t help matters any.)

        So I guess my question is at what point do you put Reed, Stephenson and/or or Garrett in the rotation and leave them there for a few months, even if they’re not having the greatest success,

      • Steve, I am usually on board with your takes but why call out Dan Strailey? Who is to say he would be worth much in mop up role? On the other hand, Finnegan has been horrible as a starter but would likely be a decent bullpen guy. Lorenzen and Iglesis have been great in bullpen and may not hold up to starting. I think we need to start with guys who have been successful and go from there. My take is NONE of these guys are part of a championship starting 5 but could make up a decent bullpen. Now we just need 3 good quality starters who are not currently on the roster. Here’s hoping . . . .

        • Gaff, I’m usually with you but Finnegan has not been horrible. Yes, yesterday was a bust but he’s made great progress during the year developing his change up and getting outs with it. Definitely should be a part of next year’s rotation, as should Strailly. Steve, WHEN Strailly proves he’s no longer starter quality and some of the younger arms develop, THEN move him to the long relief/spot starter role.

        • Interestingly straily has a higher WAR this year than ANY season Mike Leake had (and 5 times higher this year!)

          • Not in FanGraphs WAR. Leake almost double Straily this year and previous years. You were probably looking at Baseball Reference. They value pitchers quite a bit differently. BR cares a lot more about runs actually given up. FanGraphs is based more on fielding independent (run independent) stats. That’s a huge difference in Straily’s case. You might find this interesting, it’s a chart comparing the differences in how WAR is calculated: http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_comparison.shtml

        • I feel bad pounding on Finegan but any look at the numbers (all the meaningful advanced ones included) shows Finnegan to have been bad this year. He needs a major overhaul to be a decent starter but I think he has value long term. I just prefer conclusions to be based on data and Straily has been better this year (although not much). I would gladly trade Straily for value but he is also is cheap and better than many expensive Free Agents.

      • I think Straily has earned a spot in the 2017 rotation to start the season. It’s more of an old-school feel thing as I’m well aware of his indicators and underlying stats. I’m also very, very concerned about his fly-ball tendencies and pitching at GABP. It’s most likely that you’re right and the indicators are going to be a lot closer to his ERA going forward than this year’s ERA. That said, there are some guys who regularly out-perform their indicators. 2017 stands to be a lost season as well and I’d like to see if Straily can continue to be a good starting pitcher (final outcome wise). Because of the indicators however, there is no way I’d sign him to a long term deal nor would I assume he’ll bounce back should he start 2017 very poorly (a la Simon this year). The more traditional baseball guy in my though says that he’s performed this year and has earned a shot to stick in the rotation in 2017. Make sense?

      • +1, Chuck. If Dan Straily is number one starter material, then we fell into the Hot Tub Time Machine back to the mid 2000’s. Jimmy Haynes, come on down!

  5. Straily has pitched very well for a very poor baseball team. Do I want him starting a playoff game on the next great Reds team? No….but if/when is there a next great Reds team??? Starting to look like not many current Reds will be stars on that team.

    Do other high ceiling pitchers who are now just prospects( Bob Steve, Garrett, Reed ) need to show their high ceiling? Yes. Lorenzen is doing it in a limited role this year. Iglesias is as well. Finnegan looks tired, Disco is stumbling at the finish line despite a relatively low workload and that’s a bad way to head into the offseason for a guy who most every Reds fan had penciled in as a core guy in 2017 to keep progressing. Homer isn’t pitching anytime soon. Repeat…..Homer is not making any progress……again. Not a good week.
    Straily has been a positive in a year of negatives….so lets give him his due. Ill gladly trade him or make him a long reliever when 5 other guys prove they are better. Who is making 30 starts and pitching effectively for 200 innings next year? Anyone?

    • I’m so disappointed about Bailey’s lack of progress this year. I worry that my father and other doubters are right and he’ll never be like he was in 2012-2013. UCL surgeries are so common and often very successful these days but there are some cases where it just doesn’t work out. These cases are pretty rare but it would be Bailey and the Reds’ dumb luck that Bailey may be one of them. A small-market team can’t have too much salary on the DL. I’m hoping that Homer can come back and contribute in 2017 but I’m getting more and more pessimistic about that prospect.

  6. Straily is not a number one starter, but at this point there are not five better major league starters than him in the organization. When the Reds have five other pitchers who can win double figures in the majors and with sub-3.5 ERAs, I’ll be the first to say Straily goes to the bullpen. He IS part of the future, with four years of Reds control remaining.

  7. Today may have been Lorenzen’s best appearance of the season. A few notes:

    He basically got seven outs because of the error on Suarez.
    Five ground balls and two strikeouts
    Used four different pitches: four-seam and two-seam fastballs, slider, and curveball
    Both strikeouts came on curveballs, his fourth best pitch.

    He dominated and was efficient, especially when you factor in the error. His GB% is now a ridiculous 61.9%. Strong strikeout rate of over 23%.

    He isn’t just throwing heat. He throws four pitches. His pitch profile and distribution are almost the exact same as DeSclafani.

    He looks like a starter and should be given a chance to try. They have plenty of other young guys that can fill the 100+ inning reliever role. If Lorenzen fails for some reason, he can always go back to the pen. Too much potential to not try in the rotation.

    His injury situation is wayyyy different than Iglesias. Lorenzen missed almost all of his time this season because of mono. His elbow was fine by late April. He threw over 150 innings last year.

    Let him compete for it.

    • The Reds need Lorenzen to be a leader of the pitching staff. Its clear 2017 will not be the next Reds great team. With the uncertainty surrounding Homer and Bob Steve not grabbing his opportunity and Iglesias likely headed back to the bullpen….It makes a lot of sense to give Lorenzen another shot in spring training at starting. He could be a rotation anchor in 2018.

      • There is uncertainty about Homer. There is about any player from one year to the next, and he’s coming off surgery. But my understanding is that his rehab is not unusual, and that 2017 was the target year for his being a consistently effective pitcher. I also think that you are being a little tough on BobSteve: He has shown very good stuff (to my eyes), and streaks of shaky command. Just what I’d expect from a very hyped young pitcher in his early starts in MLB.

        • I would tend to agree with you GREENMTRED on both counts. I have had multiple discussions with my physical therapist about TJ surgery rehab. He is also a baseball fan and did not think Homer could be expected to be consistently effective until 2017, anything in 2016 would be just trying to gain consistency. I do hope the bicep issue is unrelated and a minor issue that will have resolved by next spring. Robert S is young and to my untrained eye, has major league stuff, just not major league command yet.

        • We all hope for the best for Homer. He has had a few setbacks but also had that one dominant outing. Lets hope the offseason helps him. Bob Steve had that one great outing too and he will get and should get every opportunity to live up to his perennial top prospect status. That said, he seems to be struggling with the same problem….throwing strikes. He’s not 21 anymore. 2017 is a big year for him. I hope he makes a break through.

    • First, I agree that Lorenzen was brilliant today. Second, I agree that Iglesias and Lorenzen are two different stories.

      I’ve advocated for Lorenzen/Igesias pitching a total of 200+ innings in the pen but at the same time i agree with giving Lorenzen a shot to start in spring training. It needs to be seen how much his improvement this year translates to starting.

      If he pitches like an ace starter, it’s a no brainer to put him in the rotation. But if he pitches like a back end of the rotation guy, leave him in the pen, he’s so much better than that there.

    • I agree with Nick, great assessment

      Lorenzen should start in 2017

      He can always fall back to the pen but I do not see that happening next year. The guy is a competitor and he wants to hit!

    • I think the Reds are already committed to keeping him in the pen and I think that’s a huge mistake.

  8. How about Tucker Barnhart? At this point, would most of you be comfortable penciling him in as the #1 starting catcher for the next 5 years or so? If all the other players pan out, the Reds can afford to have a low-power catcher who gets on base at about league average hitting low in the order.

    • Don’t know about the next 5 years, but unless Meso can stay healthy Barnhart’s the guy right now. Excellent defensively, which for the majority of teams is priority one, and continues to improve at the plate. BIG rbi today down 2 strikes. He’s a gamer.

        • Mesoraco is signed for just one year (2018) beyond his arbitration years. So unless you are in favor of releasing him, the contract amounts aren’t much different through 2017 than they would be if they hadn’t signed him. His 2018 salary ($13.1 million) is about 1.5 WAR. He’ll have a great chance of earning that, and possibly way more.

          None of the current signings (Votto, Bailey, Mesoraco, Phillips, Iglesias) are in any way a payroll hindrance. They’ve traded away so much payroll they have plenty of room to sign a new player or two if they want. People forget, or underestimate, how cheap the rest of the team will be.

        • He has to play to be worth the money. I am pretty sure he would not have made the same money in arbitration, which does not give raises to guys who don’t play due to injury. I think the point of this train of posts was that maybe Tucker is a better option but the money going to Mes likely tips the scales. So even if Mes is worth 1.5 WAR that could be less than Barnhardt would have been.

        • Gaffer does have a point in that the extension is paying him in 2016/2017 far more than he would have earn in arb alone. Even if DM is healthy in 2017/2018, big decisions are ahead.

        • His health makes me wish they kept Grandal and traded Mes, but I guess the crytal ball wasn’t working that day

        • Agree. I’ve been very happy with Barnhart and if they need to use him as the #1, he has shown he can do that. I think they need a better #2 to handle the 45 or so games that Tucker won’t be back there.

  9. Reds should wear the green jerseys for the rest of the season. Because why not?

  10. I don’t think Steve is being hard on Straily, I think he is just looking at the facts and beyond just what the results have been this year. Straily is easy to like and easy to root for but let us not forget that he has been the beneficiary many times of some fantastic defensive plays behind him. If there are not five better starters ahead of him next year by all means let him start, but he is definitely not a No 1 starters and the compares a whole lot more to Sam Leclure than he does Maddux or Roberts. Eventually he will come back to his level. Still I have enjoyed watching him pitch this year.

  11. When I evaluate pitchers, I primarily look at their K% and BB%. Other stuff – GB%, fastball velocity, plays a role, too. I don’t put any weight on wins/losses and only a little bit on runs. That’s just me. If you want to evaluate pitchers on runs, that’s up to you. If you want to evaluate pitchers based on wins and losses, you can stop reading this comment right now.

    I feel that K% and BB% are better indicators of how a pitcher has pitched and also better predictors. Studies bear that out. To me, the single best pitcher evaluation stat is SIERA. It combines a lot of that stuff.

    The claim that Straily has been the Reds best pitcher this year can’t be supported. Anthony DeSclafani has clearly been the Reds best starter. Iglesias and Lorenzen have been miles better than Straily. Even Homer Bailey pitched better than Straily.

    Again, it depends on the stats one uses to judge most of that.

    I just can’t imagine Straily will be one of the best five starters for the Reds next year. Maybe at first, if none of the Reed/Garrett/Stephenson group emerges. But Straily isn’t even a league average pitcher. I hope the Reds have five candidates who are better than league average.

    I get that the Reds pitching has been so awful this year that Straily’s season looks on its face to be who-hoo! But if you look at it more closely, it just doesn’t hold up.

    • Steve, I look at the same stats for a pitcher as you do.
      Straly’s 172 innings with 150 Ks vs. 143 hits allowed is highly impressive.
      The problem of course is with the 28 HRs allowed and the 69 walks.
      That’s the problem with his FIP and one would expect it to be a bigger problem with his ERA.
      The comparison with Robin Roberts above was made because Roberts gave up so many solo HRs. Straly recently said that that’s the key: it’s hard to lose a game when all the runs allowed are on solo HRs.
      He freely admits that he’s a fly ball pitcher who relies on OF defense.
      But then why all the walks, and why isn’t his ERA worse ?
      (This year isn’t out of nowhere, he had a very similar season, but with lower FIP due to fewer HRs, in 2013.)

      There are two answers: 1. He’s been lucky. 2. He’s a smart situational pitcher who knows who to challenge and who to pitch around to get out of an inning.
      I’ll leave that as an open question, but it is a fair question.

      Bottom line: Not even league average ? Even if that’s true, 172 innings of almost league average for this pitching staff, from a guy picked up off the scrap heap, has been a Godsend. Getting swept at home in 4 by the Pirates for the first time since 1991 would have been a major bummer, today I thank Dan for giving the Reds a chance to win, and managing it with a CFer who should have stayed in bed.

      • PS I really don’t mean to put down Peraza with my CF comments, I think he’s already a good player. But he is an infielder. And he did play both of yesterday’s game, followed by the day game today. Don’t know what Price was thinking.

        • I don’t think Brian Price does all that much thinking. I think that there are a lot of problems with how Brian Price makes decisions, and how he DOES NOT seem to coordinate how the club is run on the field with the long term strategies for the team set by the Front Office. That is, if the Front Office actually does have any long term strategies.

      • “That’s the problem with his FIP and one would expect it to be a bigger problem with his ERA.” => “That’s the problem with his FIP and one would expect it to be a bigger problem with his ERA than it already is.”

  12. After today’s game, Schebler is actually .297/.366/.477 since coming back up. That’s with the 0 for 20 something stretch where it looked like he was pressing after the walk off against the Birds. The kid can hit.

    • It wasn’t that he was pressing after the walk off, he got beamed by Leake and limped to 1B and toughed it out, and then came the 0 for 20 stretch. I’ve said it multiple times now.

    • I was very much against trading Jay Bruce.

      I felt it would hurt Votto’s hot streak and that we would have a hole in right field

      Can I say that I was wrong on both accounts?

      Scott S using LF has made all the difference for I’m as a hitter, same as Bruce. With Scott S. At 265, we do not miss Jay at all.

      I do not think that Cozart should be traded. I would have him back up SS and 3rd next year. How about Zach’s bat off the bench?

      • Cozart has to be traded

        1) he has 1 year and no way you extend him ( news flash we are not going to WS next year)

        2) we have several players who need to play now

        3) wasted money on bench (he will get 5-6 million)

        4) trade value – one more top 150- 200 prospect

      • More rumblings over the weekend that the Mets might not even keep Bruce for next season. If that happens, I wonder where he ends up???

        • Good question… I think someone will offer him a 1-year “make good” deal at $10-million or so if the Mets buy out the option and he becomes a free agent. I don’t see him getting a big free-agent deal with the way he has struggled since the trade.

  13. The Reds are 11-2 in Strailey’s last 13 starts. Whats to dislike? You pencil him into the back of the rotation next year and see what happens? Its not like he’s 34-35 years old.

  14. While Dan Straily has pitched well for the Reds in 2016, and does deserve consideration for the Reds 2017 rotation, how well he pitches in spring training next year will be the deciding factor if he is in the rotation.
    It is a good problem to have. Another good thing with having Straily in the 2017 rotation, to at least begin the season, is allowing the Reds to have Amir Garrett at AAA and save the extra year of team control and possible Super 2 status on Garrett’s future. Straily can help to keep Garrett’s service time clock in check. That alone could be worth several million dollars.

    • Homer has pitched better than Straily? In what universe? How do you compare a guy that’s pitched all year to a guy that’s made 3-4 starts anyway?

      Secondly….spring training is just to get warmed up for veterans like Straily. If spring training mattered then it wouldn’t have been Fireworks Night every single time Cody Reed pitched. Straily has a lot of walks because he’s smart and he knows who can hurt him and who he can probably get out. If Straily was pitching for the Yankees this weekend then Hanley Ramirez wouldn’t have beat them 5 times!

      I’m not vouching for the guy past next April but he’s earned a shot in the rotation next year! When a guy like him loses it then it goes downhill immediately….like Sammy LeCure so the decision shouldn’t be that difficult anyway!

  15. Given the analytical red flags associated with Straily, it would be wise to proceed with caution. It would be almost impossible for him to maintain the same rate of success if his BABIP were to rise to league average. However, he’s good until he’s not good…and right now he’s good.

    • Straily is what he is. He can help this team over the next few years. But if he’s still a starter here in two years, something’s gone wrong.

      • Maybe? Its not like he’s 34 years old though. Did you see the stats a month ago or so about pitchers with the slowest fastball? Kyle Hendricks and Straily were right up there! Since almost everyone hits 93-95+ now then coming in below the hitting speed seems to be effective. In a staff of big arms then he might continue to be effective!

        • Indy….I don’t disagree, but when your BABIP is 55 points lower than Mark Buerhle there is ample reason for concern. I want him to be good….but, at a certain point
          ” the luck” changes.

    • Is there data on how much average velocity there is on BABIP? I know we see that for hitters. Just wondering if it is available for pitchers. Is it not possible that a pitcher who more often than not keeps hitters from making solid contact might therefore have a lower BABIP?

  16. Steve, your take on Straily’s walk/SO ratio is absurd because you don’t factor in at least two factors. One, his ratio would be one of the tops in the league if he didn’t seek to induce the hitters to hit at a bad pitch. Case in point, Warren Spahn, another HOF’er, said he never got swinging strikes over the plate, a pitch over the plate they were hitters’ illusions. 2nd, Straily has a feel for the art of pitching that you’ve never seen before. It is fair by some of us to prefer Straily over Leake, and I loved Leake, but if Leake didn’t have his drop-dead sinker he was toast. Both were born to be pitchers but neither would survive pure Sybermatics because it’s a game of inches, emotion, luck, hitting a round ball with a round bat and most of all skill at the major league level, yes, a game of sybermatics? which explains a lot of what is going on the field but not all.

    • So Dan Straily is Warren Spahn. Sure. He’s done a good job of hiding it before this year. Wonder why Straily didn’t reveal his “feel for the art of pitching” before this year at age 27. Or why the two organizations before the Reds (Cubs, Astros) kept their modern-day Warren Spahn in the minor leagues. BTW, sabermetrics (sybermatics?) would have been all over Spahn’s greatness. His FIP was below 4.00 every year but his last, when he was 44. Straily’s FIP has never been under 4. When Spahn was 26, he led the majors in ERA.

      Look, I’m happy Straily has given up as few runs as he has this year. Innings needed to be eaten and Straily did a solid job. He has earned a shot at the starting rotation next year. But he’s a below-average pitcher. I hope the Reds have five better going forward.

      Straily’s underlying pitching numbers are huge flashing warning signs. Smart organizations base their decision making about the future on data like that, not on one-year-wonder outcomes.

      • So that’s three Hall of Famers you have compared Dan Straily to on this thread Art. I think Straily has been a very pleasant surprise for the Reds this year but you are either trolling, using sarcasm, or are just completely not understanding the difference between a Hall of Fame level of pitching and Mr. Straily.

      • Well they based a 100+ mil contract on 2 one-night outcomes so smart isn’t the one adjective I would use

        • Come on now? You don’t really believe that do you? I think it is much more likely that they based Bailey’s contract on his 2012 and 2013 seasons, during which he looked like a solid #2 starter who still may have upside going into his age 28 season. He had just come off back-to-back 200+ inning campaigns. He had just posted ERA numbers about 10% better than league average. He was trending in the right direction, his 2013 better than his 2012 and his 2012 better than his 2011. Bailey was looking like a good bet to continue to be a very good starting pitcher. I don’t think the no-hitters stand as the main reason the Reds offered him the contract.

        • They probably also based the contract on Homer’s stuff and his evident growth as a pitcher. Not a bad bet, until he got hurt, but many pitchers do, and it isn’t usually easy to predict who is next.

  17. Dan Straily may be a one year wonder, he may turn out to be a HOF he could be a serviceable pitcher over his career, there is zero way of knowing, you can look at all the stats you want but nothing is 100%. Right now, I would want him to be in our rotation come spring of 2017 as I have zero faith in Homer being at 100% then and know some of our other pitchers are still young and need to mature. I like the direction this franchise is going, is there bumps ahead, sure but come Oct. 2 this year I will be bumed out cause even bad baseball is better then no baseball…

  18. 2016 Numbers

    K%. BB %. BAPIP

    Arietta. 22.2. 8.6. .227

    Straily. 20.3. 9.3. . 239

    Hamels. 23.6. 9.5. .295

    Pretty close….though the BABIP for Arieta and Straily reflect why there is reason for the Reds to be skeptical and why the Cubs seem very willing to let Arieta walk after next year.
    :

    • I know that it has been explained before, but can a pitcher affect his BABIP? I would think yes, to some extent (fly balls get caught more often than liners).

  19. I can’t wait until his next start. I’m not the only one because his teammates play sterling defense when he pitches.

    • I think the point people are making about him is that whatever happens in his next start is irrelevant, good or bad. The thought would be that over the course of a whole new season, we’d expect to see more bad than good. This isn’t definitive, but it’s the most likely outcome.

      As many have said, let’s not confuse “surprisingly serviceable” with “great.” We are not THAT far removed from a rotation of Cueto, Bailey, Latos, Arroyo, and Leake. On that staff, whose spot would he take?

      So yeah, Straily could be a front end starter for an abysmal staff, or he would be a workable 5th starter for a good staff.

    • I saw an above comment that you’d prefer him over Mike Leake. Fair enough. But doesn’t that pretty much condemn your argument that he’d be anything better than that? Mike Leake will not be going to Cooperstown or even an All-Star game unless he buys a ticket. That’s not much of a shining star.

      Think of this… if the Reds were to dangle Straily in a trade, what would the “get” be?

  20. For the record…I don’t think he’s a long term answer either. GABP isn’t exactly built for flyball pitchers. At the same time….he’s in the same boat as Duvall! Cheap for the time being and possibly valuable in the future….basically found money so just see what happens!

    • I agree, Indy. Nothing to lose, barring bad decision-making down the road.

  21. Good news for Chad, UVA had two of the best hitters in the summer Cape Cod League this year.
    UVA 1B Pavin Smith finished 6th in hitting at a .318 BA, with 4 HR, 18 RBI, 17 BB, 25 K in 151 AB’s.
    UVA OF/2B Ernie Clement finished 2nd in hitting at a .353 BA, with 0 HR, 11 RBI, 8 BB, 10 K, 19 SB in 167 AB’s.
    Both made the All-League team.
    There just aren’t many polished college bats that project near the top of next year’s draft at this time though.

  22. I think it is great we are even talking about Straily when he is way way down the list as far as pure stuff and his upside is what you have seen.However he has earned a job next year either as a starter or a long man.Great problem to have don’t you think?

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