Titanic Struggle Recap

Reds lose 13th straight game against the Mets

The Reds losing streak against the Mets reached thirteen games on Tuesday evening. The Reds have not beaten the Mets since 2014.

phillips-out

The Reds fell behind quickly as Brandon Finnegan allowed a pair of solo home runs in the second and third innings. Adam Duvall responded by hitting his 30th home run of the season in the bottom of the third. The Reds took a 3-2 lead in the fifth inning on a sacrifice fly by Joey Votto.

Yoenis Cespedes spoiled a solid start by Brandon Finnegan earlier this season by hitting a big three-run home run in a game in April. Tonight, Cespedes hit a two-run home run in the seventh inning, giving the Mets a 4-3 lead. Blake Wood allowed a home run later in the ninth, and the Reds would end up falling 5-3. The loss was number 80 for the Reds in 2016.

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (57-80) 3 5 1
New York Mets (73-66) 5 8 1
W: Smoker (2-0) L: Lorenzen (2-1) S: Familia (46)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

redsmetswpa

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Michael Lorenzen allowing a 2-run home run to Yoenis Cespedes with 1 out in the 7th inning, giving the Mets a 4-3 lead. That play decreased the Reds chances of winning by 36.5% (from 69.2% to 32.7%).

Player of the Game

Adam Duvall: 1 for 3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 RBI, 0.21 WPA

duvall

Duvall hit his 30th home run of the season. It is pretty incredible that the “throw-in” piece in a trade for nine starts of Mike Leake has hit 30 bombs at the MLB level. Or is it?

Positives

Hernan Iribarren had a pinch-hit triple for a second consecutive day! Our own Jason Linden wrote a cool story about Iribarren from his time around the Bats this season.

Joey Votto had a hit and a sacrifice fly.

Raisel Iglesias pitched a perfect 8th inning with a strikeout.

I guess this goes in the positives……What happened to Jay Bruce‘s arm? He made a really poor throw on a Votto sacrifice fly in the 5th inning, resulting in the Reds taking a 3-2 lead.

Negatives

Rough night for Michael Lorenzen. He has been great for the Reds in the pen this year, but he got smoked by the mighty Yoenis Cespedes tonight.

Jose Peraza was 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts.

The second pitch Blake Wood threw ended up in the seats.

Meh

I had to make a separate category for Brandon Finnegan. Looking at the surface, 2 ER in 5.0 innings is pretty solid. Looking at the peripherals, not so much: 2 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 8.35 FIP. Both of the home runs were solo shots, so that is the best way to give up home runs. He is however very lucky those home runs didn’t happen when one of his four walks were on base. Still, it is nice to see Finnegan finishing the season with success. He has allowed 3 ER or less in 10 of his last 11 starts.

Not so random thoughts…………….

Kudos to the Reds for not wasting service time on Jesse Winker, Amir Garrett, and Dilson Herrera. ICYMI, Dick Williams basically confirmed that those guys will not get called up. There is no reason to call up Winker and Herrera when the Reds already want to get looks at Scott Schebler and Jose Peraza. There is also no reason to rush Garrett like Reed either.

Up Next:

Mets at Reds
Wednesday, 12:35 PM
TV: None; Radio: 700 WLW
Anthony DeSclafani (2.93 ERA) vs Noah Syndergaard (2.56 ERA)

 

All photographs used courtesy of the Cincinnati Enquirer and Kareem Elgazzar, and are used by persmission. All statistics are used courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and ESPN Stats & Info.

33 thoughts on “Reds lose 13th straight game against the Mets

  1. Good pitching match coming up. Time for the Reds to break the winless streak against the Mets.

  2. and to think Duvall may not even be a starter next year. I can see the Reds trading him based on those 30 HRs and gettng plenty of takers. I get the feeling that the Reds, writers, and fans don’t like his long term over all value.

    • I think the concerns over Duvall’s sustainability are rooted in fact. Other teams know Duvall’s walk rate as well, so I can’t imagine there would be a huge market for a guy that has some major red flags.

      • Agreed. Unless someone over pays, which is always the caveat for trading someone, I don’t think the Reds add any value. Even if he is a 4th outfielder, he is still a solid piece to the puzzle

    • I think the Reds could, and have, done much worse than Duvall starting in one of the outfield corners. I would prefer though that they acquire another corner outfielder with a more sustainable approach at the plate. I think Duvall would be great as a power bat off the bench also getting a couple starts a week backing up LF, RF, 1B and 3B.

      • If a guy is not going to be an All-star why not trade him? Surely all the GM’s do not have all the inside information that we have and will foolishly give up a top prospect. I love that the Reds rarely have any talent on their bench therefore do not have waste effort on strategy, things were much better when Jordan Pacheco was here. More Benadina’s and Boesch’s and less Duvall’s

        • You mean you wouldn’t want Tyler Holt versus Duvall at the plate as the tying or winning run late in a game against a reliever with a suspect breaking ball and flat fastball 😉

        • Definitely in a sacrifice situation go with Holt, guys like that are great because you can just release them when they go to arbitration and replace them with someone else’s cast off for league minimum. I wonder if Bourgeois is available.

    • I don’t get the eagerness to dump on Duvall. Offensively his OPS+ is at 112; he has the OBP component edged over .300 precisely because he has learned to take a walk; and, he runs the bases aggressively without a lot of TOOTBLANs. Defensively, he plays a better than average corner OF on either side and can also cover both infield corners. He’s everything folks kept hoping Chris Heisey might be and probably a little more.

      The Reds potential internal options to replace Duvall’s power from the right side would all seem to be at least a year and quite possibly two or more years away (Ervin, Aquino, and perhaps Senzel if the Reds would decide to move him to OF). Unless a trade or FA signing bring them a better option in the short run, the Reds should keep Duvall.

      • Ha,

        Free agent signing by the Reds

        Last night I was dreaming that I was ride a horse at the beach

      • But if they can package him a deal with Iglesias for some great prospects then they can move Disco at next years trade deadline before he costs too much. Save some money so they can compete in 2020.

        • And if not 2020 maybe 2022 if they can move the prospects they get for Duvall, so they get even better prospects that need a bit more time.

        • Maybe it’s about my own age but 2020 is too long for me; and, playing for then would represent a lost opportunity to at least sniff the playoffs in 2018/19 without sacrificing the future beyond then.

        • I am just coming up with ridiculous arguments because it would be ridiculous to trade Duvall. OhioJim I think we agree, PDUNC made great points…it feels to me so many people think either Reds need All-star player or you should just move him for prospects without considering needing 4 OFers and utility guys to spot start 90-100 games

      • Keeping Duvall is a no-brainer to me as long as someone doesn’t show up with an offer that really can’t be refused. At worst, I think he’s a solid corner player and at best he’s a starting OF. The guy is technically an All-Star. His walk-rate has been better as teams are pitching around him more. He’s been in an extended slump but that crap happens.

        • Duvall was on the Reds pregame radio and Wednesday. He said he had been doing extra work to get back to “driving” the ball and not just putting it in play.

          He could also be running on empty. He and Price had both commented earlier about the need to closely monitor the impact of heat and humidity on his stamina given his diabetes. Also he has played nearly every day and does not have that experience playing a 6 month season versus a 5 month season.

  3. ‘Member when Jesse Winker was penciled in at LF for the second half of 2015?

    • We’ve been talking about Winker’s arrival for so long that it seems he must be approaching 30 years old.

      • And yet he just finished his age 22 season. It was his worst season as a professional, and he still finished the year with a .397 OBP in a league where he was 4.5 years younger than the average player. Will be interesting to see what happens with him going forward.

    • Just curious what Winker’s ceiling is to most,…definitely not Bryce Harper or Trout, not Eric Davis even, maybe Paul O’Neil??

      • You’re asking for a comp and the Old Cossack can’t help with an opinion in that regard, but I do have an opinion on floor and ceiling possibilities for Winker:

        Ceiling => .300/.400/.500 with average corner OF defense
        Floor => .260/.350/.400 with below average OF defense

      • Not Eric Davis even? Injuries make it hard to judge, but I would have bet on a healthy Eric Davis against Trout or Harper, good as they are. Davis could do everything.

  4. The baseballs are juiced again this year, and it started last season.
    30+ HR hitters are again growing on trees. MLB has 20 players with 30+ HR’s at this stage and there are another 24 players that have between 25-29 HR’s. By season’s end, there might be 40 players with 30+ HR’s and about 10 have the chance to surpass 40 this year. Nine are already at 35+.
    2015: 19 players 30+ HR’s, 9 players 40+ HR’s
    2014: 11 players 30+ HR’s, 1 player 40+ HR’s
    2013: 14 players 30+ HR’s, 2 players 40+ HR’s, 1 player 50+ HR’s
    2012: 26 players 30+ HR’s, 6 players 40+ HR’s
    2011: 23 players 30+ HR’s, 2 players 40+ HR’s
    2010: 18 players 30+ HR’s, 2 players 40+ HR’s, 1 player 50+ HR’s

    Adam Duvall == a cheaper Mark Trumbo, FWIW.

    • Offensively, Trumbo is not a bad comp for Duvall, but defensively, Duvall can run circles around Trumbo and then make the play. He also offers a huge advantage in flexibility with the capability to cover 4 defensive positions. The only reason Trumbo ever plays anywhere other than DH is that the team he’s playing for has no better defensive option who can also hit a lick and the existing DH is worse defensively than Trumbo.

      • Yes offensively. You and Nick are both correct defensively. Trumbo is limited in the field to LF and 1B, plus DH. Duvall has the added versatility to add RF and 3B to his LF and 1B duties, and can DH. In my guesstimation, Duvall will have a better OBP over the next 2-3 years as he gains more experience. Maybe up around .325-.330. Having him around and on the roster is not a bad thing. Not a bad thing at all. I like him more in the #6 hole, maybe #5, than in the #4 hole though.
        I wouldn’t advocate trading Duvall, unless something interesting would come up that really improves the team. Duvall’s power for a great OBP bat. Maybe a big blockbuster trade presents itself this winter. Who knows. Only if the Reds can upgrade the position.
        However, it is going to be hard for the Reds front office to come up with a new solid lineup next year without resolving all 3 of the BP, Cozart, and Mesoraco situations. As it stands, I think we’ll have Peraza bat #2, Votto #3, and the rest of the lineup is up in the air. BHam, Duvall and Suarez will be in the order somewhere. Barnhart will be C half the time. The P will bat somewhere. Two places in the order will have to be replaced (Cozart & BP) and an answer to the other half of the C tandem will have to be found.

        • Mez will be part of the catching tandem.

          Herrera will be given every opportunity to play second if BP is traded

          Winker will compete with Duvall, Y-Rod and Schebler for the corner outfield spots.

    • Interesting numbers. Either they’ve found better, more non-detectable juice or perhaps the offensive explosion of the “steroids era” didn’t have everything to do with PEDs. There’s also the possibility that the weather conditions have been just right lately or that the balls are harder. Who knows, exactly?

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