2016 Reds / Titanic Struggle Recap

Titanic Struggle Recap: T.O.S.

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (55-77) 0 4 0
Los Angeles Angels (59-74) 3 7 2
W: Nolasco (5-12) L: Finnegan (8-10)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score

The Good
–The game went by very quickly.

–Once again, Brandon Finnegan had a strong start: 7 innings, two runs allowed on 5 hits. Finnegan struck out nine Angels and didn’t walk a single one.

–Ramon Cabrera went 2-3 with a double, so I guess we’ll put that under the “good” column.

The Bad
–When Cabrera has half of the teams’ hits, you know it’s a bad night. The Reds looked foolish against a bad pitcher, Angels starter Ricky Nolasco.

–Nolasco hadn’t thrown a shutout in four years, and he’d only thrown four shutouts in his ten-year career before tonight. Sheesh.

–Raisel Iglesias gave up a run on two hits and a walk in his one inning of work. He had a poor outing to punish me for picking him up for my fantasy team’s bullpen. (Don’t judge me; the free agent pool was very shallow, and I have four pitchers on the disabled list.)

Not-So-Random Thoughts
–Swept by the lowly Angels to complete a disastrous 1-5 road trip against two bad teams (Arizona, LAA). After they got us a little excited, the Reds have now lost eight out of ten games.

–Brandon Finnegan’s age-23 season has been an unqualified success in my mind. Really excited to see this guy progress over the next few years.

–Votto finished the month just shy of a .400 batting average; it would have been the first time in Reds history that a hitter had hit .400+ in back-to-back months. If he had collected a hit in his final at-bat, Votto would have turned the trick. Alas, he flew out to left field.

40 thoughts on “Titanic Struggle Recap: T.O.S.

  1. Dont forget about the Billy sacrifice in the 6th inning when down one. Runner stranded on third. Nice.

    • Billy bunting may change the odds of a sacrifice in that situation compared to a normal batter (less likely to get a hit and more likely to beat out a bunt). But otherwise I agree.

  2. #Playingforthedraftpick. That’s the purported memo from the Reds FO for the remainder of the year.

  3. Hamilton and Cozart went 1-24 in the series in the 1-2 holes. Yes, its a West coast road trip and many times 3-3 is the best you can hope for ,,,,,but this was against 2 bad teams and a big hiccup. Series like this and road trips like this prove you need 4 good outfielders and Winker is the best of the 4. Glad to see Finnegan finish strong but this rebuild needs some more energy. Bring up Herrera and Winker and give Cozart some time with the trainers and let Phillips rest. Saurez went 0-3 with 3 K’s…..clearly there is a fine line between being tired and staying sharp and Price failed to find it this road trip. Winker and Peraza need to play. Move forward with this rebuild….20 games under .500.

    • 1-24 at the top says a lot about why they couldn’t score.

      Cozart’s situation is a tough one for both the player and the team. He needs to show he is healthy enough to play and contribute in order to maximize his market value in the off season. This is in the best interest of both parties because the Reds need to trade him to make room for Peraza et al; and, Cozart needs to be in a situation where he can strike a multi year deal with several years at a starting player’s salary.

      However I don’t think he is helping the cause playing in his current condition. It is pretty clear his legs are a mess. He can’t very run well; and, neither can he drive the ball when at bat. It follows that his defensive range also has to be diminished; and, he’s said so publicly.

      I’m not sure how this will play out in September or later in the off season; but, what’s happening now doesn’t bode well for either the team or the player..

      • If I recall he missed 10 games? I generally defend the Reds when a player is day-to-day and they don’t put him on the DL. When it’s one of your starters and he isn’t expected to miss more than 5-7 days, then you may decide to play short and not DL him. As soon as it had gone more than 5 games or so though, the Reds needed to retroactively DL Cozart. He could have used those 15 days off. Heck, it’s possible he could have used a few more. Get him some time in September to build some value back up. They chose not to do it and to play him when he clearly isn’t even close to 100% (nobody is 100% this time of year).

  4. I guess Finnegan is the next Cueto. He’ll pitch a good game and get little to no run support..
    Is it me or does this team have a habit of making bad pitchers look like Kershaw?

    • It’s not you. They seem to always do bad against the soft throwing veteran types

  5. R.Stephenson pitched 7 innings tonite which seemingly eliminates him as a possibility to start for the Reds on Saturday. He had a reasonably strong start, allowing 1 run (earned) on 3 hits. However he did walk 3 batters while racking up 7K’s. His pitch count was 104/68S. The Bats won the game 2-1.

    RS’s AAA WHIP for the season (over 143.1 innings) stands at 1.34. In comparison, Reed’s (AAA) is 1.25(73 innings); and, Garrett’s (AAA) is 1.19(62.1 innings).

    Here is another interesting comp albeit with substantially differing sample sizes. RS’s MLB WHIP is 1.084 (12 innings); Reed’s is 1.804 (47.2 innings). Maybe RS is just one of those folks who just plays to level of his competition?

    • So RS is at 143 innings. That doesn’t leave many September inning for him in MLB does it? What is his innings pitched forecast for the year?

      • I put his innings at 148.2. The innings from MLB do not appear on the MiLB operated stats pages. Here is the BBRef link with the MiLB shown with the MLB.

        http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stephro01.shtml

        He pitched about 135 last year; so, yeah not a lot left. Plus Louisville plays thru Labor Day and has a double header in the mix because of a rain out last week. He could even make another start there.

  6. Mike Trout was involved in a major auto accident last night after the game. I heard he wasn’t injured, but a couple others were.

  7. Tough road trip. It’s easy to lose sight of progress when the most recent results have been poor.

    Since June 1, they’re 38-42.

    Since July 1, they’re 26-26.

    For the season, they’re 32-33 at home

    With Jay Bruce, they averaged 4.29 runs per game. Without Jay Bruce, they’ve averaged 5

    For April, May and June they gave up 5.98 runs per game. Since then it’s down to 4.4.

    In the 80 games since June 1, their run differential is negative 13…or .1625 per game. In the 52 games before June 1, their run differential was negative 110…or 2.1 runs per game. Since July 1, their run differential is a positive 16….or .307 per game.

    They’re still on pace to lose 95 games. However, progress is being made and they’ve made the leap from historically awful to utterly mediocre.

    • Good stuff. However I couldn’t help but wonder how much of the apparent improvement is because the Reds saw so much of the Cubbies before mid June and have seen so little of them since? 🙂

  8. I live in Chicago and was watching the Cub game last night. One of the announcers referred to Addison Russel as a ” RBI Machine” so I decided to look under the hood a bit.

    For the season, Russell has had an astonishing
    .77 Base Runners per plate appearance. To compare, Votto has had .55. Russell drives in 18% of the runners…Votto 19%.

    For every 100 Plate Appearances, Russell has 22 more RBI opportunity than Votto. Assuming 700 PA for the year, Russell is on pace to have 154 more RBI opportunity than Votto.

  9. Even the 2 runs relinquished by Finnegan resulted from good pitching. Maybe one more start for Finnegan and then he rests and lets the arm and shoulder recover for a full season as a starter in 2017. The team looks tired and that may be as much emotional and physical.

    The Reds failure to put Cozart on the DL was a huge mistake. The dive he made last night on the ball to his left looked painful and he was clearly frustrated at not being physically able to make that play. A tender Achilles on one leg and a newly reconstructed knee on the other leg at the end of a long season. A trip tp the DL and a few weeks at the very end of the season after the requisite rest and recovery would have provided Cozart the opportunity to showcase his reasonably healthy talents. Now there will just be questions and concerns regading his health heading into the off season.l

    • the DL is not for this type of injury- it is for players who will be out but ready in about a month and then have setbacks that prolong it to 2 months and sometimes 3 or the entore season. It is much better to not play them a week and just play short handed and make them come back before they are ready

      • That is EXACTLY what the DL is for. Cozart didn’t start in 11 days….ELEVEN. The 15DL would have given him 4 extra days of ‘rest’ and allowed an extra bench bat/healthy player for this AL series. Instead, we got to see a DH of Cozart & BP….

        • And they could’ve put him on the DL retroactively if they didn’t want to commit early on. Another example of how roster management practices need to be reviewed and overhauled by the incoming GM.

      • Vic, we are talking about two entirely different DL lists. The 15-day DL is for short term injuries. The 60-day Dl list is for long term injuries. You are appropriately describing the 60-day DL list. As BRM noted, this is 15-day DL list move.

      • My thoughts are above in an earlier response to OhioJimW, if anyone is at all interested.

      • All of you are completely wrong, you only use the 15 day DL if they are going to be out 59 days. If you have a catcher that cannot catch, let him remain on the roster as a PH until a series of games come up in AL parks, then test him out to see he has regressed and only then put him on the DL- then transfer him to the 60 day.
        Every knows every other player put on the 15 day DL must automatically be transferred to the 60 day. If you did not, just watch how the Reds are forced into doing this and it makes sense.

    • I agree with looking tired and really agree about the emotional. These are professionals who have been on a very bad team it has to be draining. The last point is they played 600 ball at home against very good teams in other words they played out of their backside and then you get the let down!

  10. Finnegan was a lot of fun to watch tonight. I enjoyed listening to the Fox Sports crew talk about his changeup and Mr. Strailys influence after already reading about it on here. Props to Matt for the article!

    It made it all the more painful that we could get absolutely nothing going on offense. Simmons made a couple of nice plays up the middle that might have normally gone for hits and could have maybe gotten Nolasco more uncomfortable but realistically he only threw 94 pitches so it probably wouldnt have mattered anyway.

  11. The hit Votto missed was actually in the 6th inning with 2 outs and Cabrera on 3B (after the stupid sacrifice bunt!). Votto connected with a hard, top-spin line drive to the 2B playing deep in the shift and almost undressed the leaping 2B, even playing that deep.

    Hitting 0.400 is hard. I think Chris observed that the Angels were foolish to pitch to Votto, the most dangerous hitter in the lineup capable of beating them in a close game, with 2 outs and a runner on 3B. The decision to pitch to Votto worked out, but you know Nolasco was gnashing his teeth and cursing under his breath when the ball came screaming off Votto’s bat.

  12. Just another abysmal effort against a soft tossing pitcher. What I don’t get is all the guessing at pitches with two strikes against guys like this. Neither Weaver nor Nolasco throw hard enough that you can’t look for a certain pitch but react if it’s a fastball. Guys like Suarez……who won’t cut down on their swing with 2 strikes because they’re selling out for power. Maddening.

    Here’s my callups:
    Winker
    BobSteve (6 man rotation)
    Herrera
    Chacin
    Reed(bullpen)
    Garrett (bullpen)
    Romano (bullpen)

    If any 40 man shuffling needs to be made, dump Ohlendorf, Diaz, and DeJjesus.

    • got to have Sampson on that list, he and Reed start, not sure who would be on innings limit

      • I’d bump Stephenson for Sampson. I think I am good with everyone else he has up there. As for any 40-man shuffling, I wouldn’t dump DeJesus but Diaz followed by Ohlendorf would be the first two losing their spots if they are needed.

        • I’m down on Stephenson (though not as much as some) and I’m pretty sure he’s about gone as far on innings as the Reds may want him to.

  13. I will stick to what I have been saying all a long and that is unless our current offense improves(some have) and becomes more consistent we better go get some guys or develop some guys that get on base.This road trip shows where we are at in regards to our roster.Cosart needed to set,Billy is worn down it appears and why not its the first of September,yet we do nothing.Going forward with the expanded roster can we please recognize that guys are hurt or need a day or two off.Get these guys up here that we all think or feel are part of the future and lets finish strong this last month.This road trip was terrible but you could see it coming after we lost the first game in Arizona.Five games facing starters with an ERA over 5 and we can’t score outside of the 13 runs in game two.I know wins and losses don’t matter so lets re-group play some of the call ups and beat up on the Cards and Bucs to finish out the year.Go Reds.

  14. I love being wrong about Finnegan and being destined for the bullpen. Another solid outing. He has seized his opportunity this year. Overall too many HR’s and BB’s allowed but he is showing great improvement there and all around.
    Finnegan is at 154.2 Innings Pitched now. With about 5 or 6 possible starts remaining for Finnegan in the season, I would guess the Reds let him go up to around 175 IP’s, maybe 180. That would give him about 20-25 more innings to pitch, or about 3-4 more starts. That is where they probably shut him down. That also will give him a good platform to leap up to 200-210 IP’s for 2017.
    Very, very encouraged about the DeSclafani-Finnegan tandem looking forward.

    • Honestly, I don’t think I’d go to 175 on Finnigan. It isn’t so much about innings caps, because I’m not a believer in them. It’s that he has thrown a lot of pitches and a lot of pitches under duress in those innings; especially earlier in the season. I think I’d let him go 1-2 more starts at most, then shut him down, or go ahead and move him to the pen now and let him work some.

  15. Fellas, it’s September so time to focus on Football. Been a lost Reds season but enjoyment in watching Billy Hamilton develop at the plate and in CF, Votto being Votto, Duvall (that’s Duh-val and not Doo-Val Jim Kelch) with the years biggest surprise plus Tucker Barnhart do nothing wrong but look good.

    The pitching still needs help but Disco and Finnigan are a joy to watch. Make Iglesias the closer. Not a Bryan Price fan so I say time for a Managerial change and finally, props to Redleg Nation for being the best forum out there for Reds fans. Hate to say it but the Bengals actually look good so that’s where I’ll turn my attention. I’m sure they’ll rip my heart out again come playoff time. My best to all until next year Reds fans. I’ll be in AZ next March.

    • I assume Duh-val is with a French accent. This could be the Bengals year to win a playoff game or more. Nothing quite like those matchups against the Steelers and Ravens.

  16. Amir Garrett made what was presumably his final AAA start of the season tonight. He pitched 5.1 innings allowing 4 runs (3 earned) on 4 hits (2HR) and a BB, stricking out 6 on 79pitches/51S.

    The game was the 1st game of a double header necessitated by a rainout last week; and, thus was set to go only 7 innings. Perhaps this was a factor in Garrett being pulled at the 80 pitch mark as only 2 runs scored in his final inning of work; he left the game after allowing a 2 run HR (lead runner had reached on his BB).

    Doug Gray has reported that his sources tell him Garrett win not be among the Reds September call ups. http://redsminorleagues.com/2016/09/01/talking-pitcher-september-call-ups-reds/

    So this is likely it for Garrett in 2016 unless he makes a relief appearance over the Labor Day weekend.

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