2016 Reds

Second Half Snapshot

How about a quick snapshot of what the Reds have been doing since the All-Star break, while we’re waiting for an update on Homer Bailey’s arm?

  • The Reds have played 40 games in the second half of the season, which represents about 1/4 of the full year. Their record in those games: 23-17. Over the course of a full season, that pace would result in a 93-69 record.
  • Let’s get this one out of the way, since we’ve already discussed it ad nauseum. Joey Votto has been awesome in the second half. As of today: .431/.529/.686, .496 wOBA, 213 wRC+, 2.5 WAR. All of those numbers except SLG and WAR are the best in the entire majors. Votto’s slugging percentage is second only to Minnesota’s Brian Dozier. His WAR is 4th-best in baseball.
  • It looks like Votto is going to hit over .400 for the second consecutive month. The last player to accomplish that in back-to-back months was our old friend Josh Hamilton back in 2010. No Red has ever done it, and only one Red has been able to post two separate months in the same season with a .400+ batting average: Vada Pinson back in 1961.

  • Four Reds’ hitters have accumulated more than 1 win above replacement so far in the second half. Votto is at 2.5, as I already noted. Second on the team: Billy Hamilton, with 1.8 WAR. Brandon Phillips (1.2) and Eugenio Suarez (1.1) are next on the list.
  • Reds hitters who have been below replacement value in the second half: Ramon Cabrera (-0.4 WAR), Tyler Holt (-0.2), Ivan DeJesus Jr. (-0.1), Kyle Waldrop (-0.1), and Tony Renda (-0.1). But at least Holt can pitch, right?
  • Billy Hamilton’s line, in 39 games (173 plate appearances): .299/.372/.344, 31 stolen bases, 28 runs scored.
  • Second best offensive player in the second half? You won’t be surprised to hear that it is Brandon Phillips. BP has hit .351/.379/.500, .377 wOBA, 134 wRC+. Each of those numbers ranks second behind Votto, unless…
  • …unless you include Jose Peraza in this calculation. Peraza has only appeared in 14 games in the second half (53 plate appearances). His line: .373.396/.549, .405 wOBA, 153 wRC+. Peraza has been worth 0.4 WAR; in 30 games, Zack Cozart has been worth 0.5 since the All-Star break.
  • Joey Votto has scored more runs than any other Red in the second half, with 34. Billy Hamilton (28) is second. The Reds have scored 207 as a team, while allowing 164.
  • Eugenio Suarez: .298/.367/.482, .364 wOBA, 125 wRC+ over 40 games. I still think that, by the end of the season, we’re going to look up and find that Suarez has made real strides offensively and defensively (see below) this season. He’s still young, and without a doubt should be a part of this team’s future plans.
  • In case you’re wondering, All-Star Adam Duvall is hitting .236/.336/.465, .342 wOBA, 110 wRC+, with 6 homers. That’s probably more in line with what we can expect from Duvall, as opposed to his first half numbers, and it’s kind of a somewhat almost acceptable stat line, frankly.
  • Let’s compare Duvall’s line to Scott Schebler’s, since they look so similar: .253/.323/.483, .341 wOBA, 110 wRC+, 6 HR. Eerily similar, no? For what it’s worth, Schebler has the same number of homers as Duvall, but Duvall has 53 more plate appearances.
  • Second half home run leaders: Votto and Jay Bruce (7), Duvall and Schebler (6).
  • Let’s move on to the pitchers. Two Reds hurlers are at or above 1.0 WAR in the second half: Anthony DeSclafani (1.3 WAR), Dan Straily (1.0).
  • On the other end of the spectrum: Ross Ohlendorf (-0.5 WAR), Josh Smith (-0.3), John Lamb (-0.2 in his one second half appearance), Tim Adleman (-0.2), Jumbo Diaz (-0.1).
  • Why is Ross Ohlendorf still hanging around this rebuild? Best of luck to the guy, we loved your awesome windup and delivery, but it’s time for the Reds to move on.
  • These sample sizes are even smaller than the ones we looked at for the hitters, but who cares? Anthony DeSclafani is awesome: 5-2, 3.41 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 58 innings. Future #2 guy in the Reds rotation.
  • But in a lot of ways, Tony Disco hasn’t been anywhere in the same neighborhood as the best Reds pitcher in the second half. How about Dan Straily: 6-0, 1.98 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 50 innings. Straily isn’t slowing down at all, is he?
  • Brandon Finnegan: 4-2, 3.30 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 46.1 IP. More than acceptable for a 23 year-old.
  • You won’t be surprised to see this: Michael Lorenzen (2-0, 2.11 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 21.1 IP) and Raisel Iglesias (0-0, 1.19 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 22.2 IP) have been good. Iglesias is just amazing. Please, please, please, let Raisel’s shoulder hold up to the strains of starting next year…
  • Oh, Cody Reed: 0-3, 6.26 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 23 innings pitched. Better luck in September, and next year.
  • Tyler Holt: 1 inning pitched, 0.00 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 0.00 K/9.
  • I can’t find just second half numbers, so let’s see who has been the five best fielders on the Reds during the season, using FanGraphs’ catch-all defense stat (Defensive Runs Above Average): in order, Hamilton (15.6), Cozart (14.2), Tucker Barnhart (8.5), Suarez (4.2), Phillips (3.3). How many of you thought you’d ever see Suarez on that list? Especially above BP?
  • As a team, the Reds are hitting .276./.343/.432 in the second half, with a .332 wOBA and a 105 wRC+. That’ll work.
  • Reds’ starting pitchers in the second half: 18-11, 4.03 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 216.2 innings pitched.
  • Reds’ relievers during that same span: 5-6, 3.58 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 9 saves, 140.2 innings pitched.
  • Since the All-Star break, Redleg Nation has recorded 7 episodes of the podcast. Go listen to the latest one!
  • Okay, that’s just a little snapshot of where we are at the moment, and it’s enough for right now. It has been a fun second half so far. Let’s hope that continues.

30 thoughts on “Second Half Snapshot

      • It would have been nice if they would have hit when it would have made a difference.

        • Who do you like on this team? Anyone? The ball boy? An usher? Beer vendor?

        • I don’t like Votto. Never have…Never Will.

          I did not like Bruce’s game. Nor Frazier’s. Nor Messoracco’s.

          Of the hitters games, I like are Hamiton, Peraza, Suarez, Duvall, Phillips, (but would like Peraza in his spot),and Barnhardt. Pitchers I like are Finnegan, Bailey, Lorenzen, and Iggy. And I like Price. The rest I can take or leave.

          There you go LWBLOGGER2, Btw, I do not care who you like, or dislike.

        • Some of those guys you like are hitting and hitting when it makes a difference. Add in how Bruce hit before he left and how Votto is raking and that’s how the team is above water since the break. I wasn’t a believer in Finnegan as a starter but he’s making me one with better command and a vastly improved changeup. I hope Bailey can get back out there and be effective.

          I asked who you liked because I have read where you’ve been critical but don’t recall a lot of cases where you’ve praised someone. Thanks for enlightening me.

        • Wow Scotly… I’m wondering how you see the Reds being competitive based on the kind of hitters that you like? I would posit that one of the reasons that the Reds haven’t thrived over the past few years is having too many of the kind of guys you find as being contributory and “likable.” (opinion withheld on Peraza until he gets more time).

          There is certainly a room for some of those kind of guys, and they might even get better (what we may be seeing from Hamilton, and hopefully Suarez, for instance).

          How do you parse out Duvall from Todd Frazier? In terms of hitting, they seem very, very similar to me.

  1. I have my own preferences, but I feel really good about the starting pitching going into next season. The Reds need to determine who the three best guys are out of Finnegan, Lamb, Iglesias, Lorenzen, Garrett, Stephenson, Straily, and Reed (assuming Disco and Bailey are assured spots).

    That’s a lot of talent. Any of them likely succeed in the pen so pick the best starters and go with it.

  2. Five words of advice for the Reds front office, “No More Home Run Derbies”.
    See second half for Todd Frazier 2014, .244/.312/.396, 10 HR, 27 RBI.
    See second half for Todd Frazier 2015, .220/.274/.390, 10 HR, 32 RBI.
    See second half or Adam Duvall 2016, .236/.336/.465, 6 HR, 22 RBI, so far.
    With a rotation in 2017 of DeSclafani, Iglesias, Finnegan, Straily, and Bailey, there is no room for the young guns.
    I guess we’ll find out in this 3 game series with LAA if the Angels are going to seriously go the re-build route after 2016. If they do, the Reds have the prospects to knock down the Angels door and make a trade offer for Mike Trout. Trout has $19M, $33M, $33M, and $33M due to him over the next 4 years. I think the Reds could offer up about 7-8 prospects or current players for Trout.
    Reed or Garrett (SP’s). Reds keep one.
    R. Stephenson (SP).
    Dilson Herrera (2B).
    Jesse Winker or Phil Ervin (OF). Angels have a Winker-like OF in Kole Calhoun.
    Adam Duvall (OF/3B/1B/DH) or Scott Schebler (OF) or both.
    Chris Okey (C).
    Nick Travieso (SP).
    Kerry Mella (SP).
    That is 4 Starting Pitchers and 4 Position Players.
    And there is plenty of negotiating room with Ervin, Schebler, TJ Friedl, Aristedes Aquino, Taylor Trammell, Shed Long, Alex Blandino, and AlfRod available among position players.
    And Jose Lopez, Tony Santillan, Tyler Mahle, Sal Romano, and Jackson Stephens among the Starting Pitching still in the ranks.
    That leaves Jose Peraza, Nick Senzel, and one of Reed or Garrett as untouchables. And possibly Winker too, if the Angels would rather have some power back.

    • I’m surprised at how convinced many fans are that the Reds have a settled rotation going into 2017. How are we so sure that those five are the best? Does anyone have any hesitations/reservations about the following:

      Iglesias’ shoulder?

      Straily’s 4.89 xFIP and .235 BABIP (almost 60 points better than Randy Johnson’s career mark. Does he really produce weaker contact at a rate that much better than Johnson’s?

      Finnegan’s control issues?

      Homer’s continued recovery from TJS?

      And besides, is it crazy to think that Reed, Stephenson, Lorenzen, or Garrett might be better than one or two of those guys long term?

      I just don’t see how the picture seems to clear to some people. Maybe I’m the misguided one.

      • I don’t think much is settled with the rotation or anything else going into next season, But that’s probably the situation with almost all the other 29 teams.

      • Many Reds fans have cut bait on Robert Stephenson as a starter. I have.
        Will Lorenzen’s elbow hold up to a workload of 200 innings pitched? Remember he had a PRP Therapy injection in his elbow this spring. Next elbow flare up could mean surgery.
        Can Garrett sustain his minor league numbers at the ML level? Reed hasn’t been able too. Garrett and Reed are not destined for the bullpen like Stephenson and Lorenzen. They have a chance and will be at AAA to step in and step up when needed.
        Finnegan looks like he has nailed down one spot for 2017. Straily too for 2017. The only real question is Iglesias’s shoulder. Homer ‘s situation could become a concern, but he should bounce back given some time.
        As many, and maybe more, questions about your 4.

        • No doubt there are questions about all of them. I never said there werent. I disagree that Straily and Finnegan should have a spot. Why should they? Again, why is it crazy to think they might have better options? You can easily argue that other people have better stuff and will be more effective with a little experience.

          Giving up on Stephenson as a starter is silly. He’s young with control problems but borderline elite stuff. Lots of young pitchers with control issues just like Finnegan. No way those rotation spots should be so obvious.

        • Saying Stephenson and Lorenzen are destined for the bullpen is short sighted. No way to know that yet. And giving up on Reed because he started poorly is so silly. If that’s the standard, both Bailey and Cueto would have been in the bullpen.

        • Wait a minute, are we already concluding that Reed isn’t going to pan out because of his inauspicious start? And that by extension, because Reed couldn’t immediately come in and dominate like he did in the minors that we should also assume that Garret won’t pan out?

          And why are we cutting bait on 23 year old Robert Stephenson as a starter? There’s no way he can improve either? I see like everyone else that he has major control issues that have to improve but at his age, there is a distinct possibility that he can. Couple that with one of the best arms in baseball and you have plenty of reasons to stick with him.

          I’ll take either one of those 3 over Strailey. I like Strailey but he isn’t the future of the Reds (in the rotation anyway). Run him out there long enough and his numbers will make Reed blush.

          And I almost overlooked this notion of trading half the farm system for Mike Trout. Though he may be a hall of famer in the making, it’s going to take a bunch of guys contributing now and in the future for the Reds to be competitive. Have you noticed that the Angels have as bad a record as the Reds and they have Trout? I’m sorry, I just don’t see how this helps the team’s stated goals.

      • I think the better way to look at it is Disco has taken that step forward to firmly establish himself as a solid to very good major league pitcher. Dan Straily and Brandon Finnegan have performed well in 2016 and earned opportunities in the starting rotation in spring training next year. They have pitched and competed at a level in 2016 that other pitchers will have to bring their A game to beat them out. That is a good thing. Who knows with Homer. If his elbow is structurally healthy, there is reason to be optimistic. Joey Votto had a structurally normal knee by June of 2014, but it wasn’t 100%. JV came back to his 2010 form once he was is 100% and had the necessary repetitions. You can’t put a timetable on when a player is 100%. If Garret or Stephenson or Reed or Lorenzen or Iglesias takes the offseason to get ready for a starter role and earn dominates in ST….great. I will look forward to the debate and discussion and competition come March 2017.

  3. My sense is that Duvall has been pitched very carefully in the “2nd half”. He’s not a secret any more; and, despite what happened this weekend (half of Schebler’s three 2nd half homers and a HR by Phillips), the two guys immediately behind aren’t perceived as very likely to hit the ball over the fence. One more factor where the HR count is concerned because it is a counting stat, Duvall missed a number of games. I believe over a season full season, Duvall is likely a 25-30HR guy with an OBP in his 2nd half range.

    Kudos to Phillips for taking advantage of the opportunities he has had batting 5th.

    • I think people are being very careful working to Duvall. They know he can hurt them and they also are seeing how much he’ll chase outside the zone. They sure as heck aren’t giving into him anymore.

      • Exactly. I saw a stat that the Reds are 3rd in scoring in the NL since the ASB. BHam and Votto are getting noticed most; but, Duvall has responded to how he is being pitched now with a 330-350 OBP. BP has accepted he is now a singles hitter with some gap power and keeping the train moving. It would be interesting to see what happened if Peraza was in the #2 slot everyday and Suarez or Schebler were moved to #5 with BP 6th.

  4. I miss Jay Bruce but he is looking at something with the Mets he didn’t have to deal with in Cincy.We didn’t have a better option then him when he was slumping but the Mets do so he is on the bench again tonght.

    • Just imagine the uproar if he had not been moved, everyone screaming should have sold high

      • I’m as big of a Jay Bruce fan as anyone. I’m not in love with the return the Reds got for him but that may have been the best return out there. I don’t know. What I do know is that he probably needed to be moved; not only for the Reds but for Bruce. He’d been the subject of rumors, etc, for over a year. They sold him at the deadline, as they should have. I don’t think anyone can realistically bash the Reds for that trade.

  5. I feel bad for Jay! Its a given that they’re booing him but beer showers (or D batteries) probably aren’t far behind.

    A few of my Reds 30 day stats per my championship bound fbb squads:

    Finnegan 30.1 ip, 32 Ks, 2.67, 1.05 whip
    Straily 29.1, 26 Ks, 2.45, 1.02
    Disco 39 ip, 38 Ks, 2.77, 1.03
    Lorenzen 13.2, 13 Ks, 1.98, 1.17

    Divisional news….where can the Reds pick up a guy like the Brewers Hernan Perez

    30 days stats:

    19 runs, 7 HRs, 17 rbis, 10 steals, .292 (The ole 40/60 club would put you in rarified air….maybe a party of 1?)

    • Hard to know what to make of Hernan Perez… he is only 25, so maybe he’s just coming into his own. He’s slugging the daylights out of the ball. 13HR’s this season in 297 at-bats compared to 1 HR in his 336 previous AB’s in professional games.

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