Titanic Struggle Recap

Reds pound the Dbacks 13-0 as Disco goes the distance

The Reds offense struggled last night, scoring just once through the first eight innings. By the time the Reds finished hitting in their half of the second inning tonight, they had already scored nine times. The Reds would go on to rout the Diamondbacks 13-0, and will go for another series win tomorrow.

The Reds offense was lead by Scott Schebler. He had two home runs in the first two innings of this game, driving in five runs. Joey Votto got the Reds on the scoreboard in the first inning, when he hit his 21st home run of the season. Anthony DeSclafani didn’t allow the big early lead to water down his performance. Disco dominated the Diamondbacks, and threw the first complete game shutout for the Reds since Johnny Cueto in July of 2015.

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (55-73) 13 16 0
Arizona Diamondbacks (54-76) 0 4 1
W: DeSclafani (8-2) L: Godley (4-3)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

RedsDbacksWPA

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Joey Votto’s 2-run home run with 1 out in the 1st inning, giving the Reds a 2-0 lead. That play increased the Reds chances of winning by 15.2% (from 51.8% to 67.0%).

Player of the Game

Scott Schebler: 3 for 5, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 0.19 WPA

Schebler absolutely murdered the first home run he hit in the first inning. He sure is a fun player to watch. I think he could end up being a 4th OF/platoon guy for the Reds in the future. He had a monster night.

Positives

Poor Anthony DeSclafani. He goes the distance, throwing the Reds first complete game shutout since Johnny Cueto in July of 2015, and doesn’t even get named my player of the game. It’s just hard to beat a guy who has two bombs and a much higher WPA. Anyway, Disco was absolutely brilliant. I love that he didn’t let up for a second with the big lead. I’ve never understood that Jack Morris mindset. Disco’s final line: 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K, 1.48 FIP.

Joey Votto hit his 21s home run of the season, and went 2 for 4. He got the night off early with the Reds big lead. Votto has now reached base in each of his last 20 starts, and 39 of his last 40 starts (he failed to reach base in a pinch-hit appearance on 8/21).

Zack Cozart reached base three times (2 hits, 1 walk) in his first start in 11 days. One of those hits was his 16th home run of the season. It was good to see Zack back, and contributing right away.

Brandon Phillips went 3 for 4 tonight. He was also given the night off early.

Adam Duvall hit his 29th home run of the season. It’s pretty crazy that the “throw in” piece to the Mike Leake trade is on the verge of 30 home runs in the big leagues.

Jose Peraza entered the game for Phillips, and in his only at-bat singled. The Reds gotta find a way to get him in the lineup. I had suggested yesterday having him rotate between LF, RF, 3B, SS, and 2B. Just give those guys a day off every five days.

Negatives

Yup, nothing to see here.

Not so random thoughts………………

Walt Jocketty isn’t so bad guys:

Disco for a guy currently in AAA (plus a nice catching prospect)
A guy with 29 HR for 2 months of Mike Leake (plus a Giants top SP prospect).
Suarez for Alfredo Simon.
Peraza and Schebler for a guy currently with a .752 OPS and a lower fWAR than Suarez.
3 SP who have all appeared in the majors this season for 2 months of Cueto.

Ya, the Chapman trade was bad, but 1 out of the last 6 big trades failing is a pretty good percentage.

Up Next:

Reds at Diamondbacks
Sunday, 4:10 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Homer Bailey (5.73 ERA/3.10 FIP) vs Archie Bradley (5.06 ERA/4.59 FIP)

45 thoughts on “Reds pound the Dbacks 13-0 as Disco goes the distance

    • I think Schebler is already a 4th OF/platoon guy right now. If he makes slightly more contact on pitches in the zone and/or gains slightly more plate discipline, I think he’s a 2.0-2.5 WAR sort of player, which is a starter in my book.

        • No problem! I am still on the fence about Shebler and Duvall. More so Duvall because he is such an outlier statistically. Shebler Brings to mind Dave Kingman Shebler is a much better glove man.

  1. Cozart is most certainly an offseason trade waiting to happen.

    I fear Votto may also be playing his way off the team as is contract looks like a savvy move like it did at the time it was written up.

    If a team is buying high, then even Duvall should be moveable.

    Suarez, Peraza, Hamilton, Winker, and others are he future core. Mes will be the elder statesman and if a Votto goes I think his position needs to become 1st.

    • I think Cozart is gone pending there is a team in need of a short stop. Selling high on Duvall is intriguing depending on the return but Votto? What do you think this is MLB 2k or something? Let’s throw Phillips in and make whatever team that trades for Votto has to take Phillips and give us their best two prospects and take on all of Votto and Phillips salary? Don’t worry if Votto, Phillips, or the trading team say no, you have overriding authority in 2K! 🙂

      • +50 for the solid sarcastic retort. I’m in agreement with you. These aren’t fantasy players or contracts and none of us is an MLB GM.

      • It’s not completely out of the question that something could be worked for a Votto trade. Yes, he’s owed a ton of money but I think if the Reds wanted to move him, they probably could, assuming that Votto would waive his full no-trade clause (a huge assumption). Look at the Prince Fielder deal when it happened. Look at how the Angels signed Pujols. Look at Rodriguez last contract. Teams are willing to be upside down on the back end if they think that a player can give them 2-3 years of helping them win division titles. The Reds wouldn’t likely get much in return unless they took on a bad contract (shorter term) or sent some money in the deal but there is no doubt in my mind that they could work a trade for Votto and not pay a dime of his salary if they simply wanted to shed the contract.

  2. Duvall and Schebler are both having good a good series. They both have an OBP of .500 with 3 runs scored.

    Duvall’s seasonal OBP is up over .300 after Saturday; Schebler’s is .299.

    If they continue to play as of late, Winkier could have his work cut out to replace one of them, no more than he he has been slugging of late.

    • At this point if you are having trouble find Peraza playing time, how are they going to find any AB for Winker. Why waste his clock if he is not going to play everyday?

    • Winker’s OBP is around .390 and has always shown solid power until this season, a year where he suffered a wrist injury. Hes also younger than both and has had a superior milb career.

      It’s possible that Duvall and Schebler are better MLB players than Winker; it just isn’t likely.

      • Winker projects better but Duvall has put together the kind of season that is going to force Winker to produce at the MLB level about as well as he has at MiLB levels if he is to displace him.

        Duvall has evolved and progressed over the season beyond what anyone expected. Going forward, the ~35HRs he is likely to end up with this season may be a bit of an outlier; however, the Duvall we’ve seen since late June in terms of increasing OBP is still hitting HRs at an annual rate of right around 30 with an OBP rate over that period of .333 or better. He’s at 2.9 BWAR for the season with a month and a week to go.

        On top of that Duvall has turned out defensively to be no worse and in some aspects better than an average corner outfielder which would seem to be equal or better than how Winker projects defensively. Duvall has also shown to be a good baserunner with what appears to be average of better speed; and, I haven’t seen any projections that place Winker any better in this portion of his game.

        Perhaps it will come down to which a team prefers from 2 guys who OPS similarly, the guy that gets there with ~30HR and a .330ish OBP or the guy who gets there with 15-20HR and an OBP around .380. But one final caveat. Until Winker actually produces his numbers at MLB, it is really an apples to oranges comparison with Duvall now 5 months through his 1st full MLB season.

  3. According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Joey Votto’s 2-run home run with 1 out in the 1st inning, giving the Reds a 2-0 lead. That play increased the Reds chances of winning by 15.2% (from 51.8% to 67.0%).

    Not in my mind. Schebler’s 2nd HR, the 3-run blast, iced the game and made it 9-0 which increased the Reds chances of winning to about 99.9% from where I was sitting.

  4. We need more data on Schebler, but it appears he can give a team outfield depth and a left handed power bat. He will get an opportunity. Todd Frazier has the lowest BABIP in all of baseball and leads baseball in infield popups. Even his defense is down. Tough year for him.

    • And Suarez made a couple of good plays last night. I’m increasingly more comfortable with his time at 3B.

      • I’m also impressed by Suarez lately: He still has lapses, but he’s making some good plays and most of the routine ones, and I’m happy that my doubts about him are being proved wrong. Maybe I’m wrong about Cingrani, too. One can only hope.

        • I’ve been as critical as anyone about Suarez’ defense but maybe his cast iron glove is turning into a softer metal (not gold though). I’ve most definitely been pleasantly surprised by him on defense the last few weeks.

  5. Everywhere I read its implied that Cozart is gone and when Winker comes up either Duvall or Schebler becomes irrelevant.Take a good look at the Cubs.They have 13 offensive players that with the exception of Bryant and Rizzo are all interchangable.Its called depth.They dont have 8 starters and 5 bench guys.They plug and play all of them per Maddons perception of game situations.Seems to be working well.Its how you get the most out of each player.
    What would be wrong with keeping Cozart,Schebler Duvall and Winker?
    You would actually have a legit bench.Players that were basically the same as the player that they would replace,unlike what we have now.Holt,Dejesus etc.are much less talented than who they step in for and are only used in a spot situation.
    I love the idea of having a bench(?) that consists of Barnhart,Schebler,Cozart,and Herrera.Sounds a lot better than Renda,Cabrera,Holt and Dejesus doesnt it.

    • I like your idea of a vastly upgraded “legit” or “real” bench.

      However, I believe the issue with Cozart is cost and team control. He is only under team control thru 2017 and is likely to cost them $5M or maybe more for that one season.

      This is his age 30 season. He’s at the age where normally steep decline begins for middle IF on defense, which is still his best asset. We know he has had major knee surgery; and in addition, he now has an achilles issue with the “other” leg, both of which will work against him on the open market. Would Cozart would take a multiyear deal (4yrs/ $10M starting with the 2017 season?) to be a bench player with the Reds; I doubt it. I think he’s looking for several years of starter money and needs to be somewhere else to try roll 2017 into such a deal because of his age and health history.

      • Dont disagree at all with your post.However if I were the GM I would certainly sit down with Zack and try to make him realize everything that you said.I would try to get him to sign a 3 yr extension taking him thru age 34 for 10 million.If you look around the league 3.3 million per is a very reasonable price for Zack Cozart.There are many many inferior players to him making equal or more money,and with Zack you know you are getting a great team guy.A dedicated Red,an overall good team mate.I would certainly give it a serious effort,rather than trying to dump him for an A league kid or 2 that more than likely will never see the field of gabp other than from row 16.

        • If you can sign Cozart for a 3 year/$10MM contract extention, the Old Cossack is not only on board, but loading the wagon. I don’t think that’s a realistic option after the season Cozart had had in 2016. I think he’s fully addressed an concerns regarding his knee injury and his offensive production in 2016 combined with his 1st half of 2015 have stymied the concerns abaout his bat. His defense is still top shelf.

          The problem results when teams start paying $12MM-$15MM per season on multi-year contracts for middle infielders over 32 years old. The Reds simply can’t (and shouldn’t ever) do that.

        • Does your 3yr/$10M include 2017? Maybe if it does. No from me on the club side if it doesn’t.

          Unless he is nontendered by somebody, he’s going to make I think at least $5M, probably more, for 2017 via the arb process, whether he settles or actually goes to arb. So, I don’t think that value can be depreciated unless a team is willing to cut him loose. Another $5M for two years as a bench player is a bit pricey; but, I might do it. $10M for three years after 2017, I wouldn’t touch.

        • Cozart will not want to sit on the Reds bench. He will get at least $5 million in arbitration next season. He will want at least a 3 year $18 million deal. If he gets it Peraza will never play.

        • No team is going to offer him 12-15 mil a year.He’s still a physical risk.He doesnt have to sit on the bench either.Peraza has shown an ability to play multiple positions.Cozart,I would think feels he can still play at a high level and deserves some $ but that amount is ridiculous.

        • Having depth on a team is certainly worth the difference you would pay a Dejesus type versus what Cozart would get.If his agent rejects a reasonable offer thats another story,but the Reds should certainly entertain offering him an extension rather than just shuffling him away.

  6. ALERT – ALERT – ALERT: VOTTO UPDATE AHEAD…

    Votto continues to make an emphatic statement against NL pitching with his 2nd half surge of .444/.541/.707/1.248. Daniel Murphy put up a modest 8-game run with a 1.163 OPS to maintain his lead among the NL top hitters, but that lead is becoming more tenuous. Kris Bryant put up a monster 11-game run with a 1.529 OPS to vault himself among the NL top hitters. After his own brief 1.500+ OPS run, Votto has settled into a consistent 1.200+ OPS for an extended time and has consistently gained on all the top NL hitters for more than 2+ months

    During the past 68 games, Votto has increased:

    .197 OPS from .765 to .962 & 3rd in the NL
    .106 SLG from .421 to .527 & 14th in the NL
    .089 OBP from .345 to .435 & 1st in the NL
    .090 AVG from .221 to .311 & 10th in the NL

    There are 34 games remaining in the season.

    Votto’s full-season results of .311/.435/.527/.962 leave him:

    .041 OPS behind NL leader Murphy @ 1.003
    .019 OPS behind NL 2nd place Bryant @ .981

    .085 SLG behind NL leader Murphy @ .612
    .059 SLG behind NL 2nd place Bryant @ .586

    .015 OBP ahead NL 2nd place Goldschmidt @ .420
    .016 OBP ahead NL 3rd place LeMahieu @ .419

    .036 AVG behind NL leader LeMahieu @ .347
    .035 AVG behind NL 2nd place Murphy @ .346

    During the remaining 34 games, Votto now a legitimate shot at taking or holding the NL lead in OPS, OBP & AVG and finishing among the top 10 in SLG.

    • Thanks, Cossack. About a week ago, when Joey was at .304/.431/.515/.945, I posted a season projection for him to end up at ,319/,442/.528/.970. Taking a look at what he’s done in the past week, I’d say my projections may have been too conservative, but I think the AVG gap is too big overcome.

      • The AVG gap is close, but Votto has made up .090 points in AVG over the past 68 games and only needs about .035 over the next 34 games. That’s doable, but I’ll grant that the higher his AVG gets, the more difficult it will be to increase it more.

  7. Reds Sunday lineup has posted. SOSO. If Cozart plays (he does), Peraza sits (he is). I was thinking BHaM was the prime suspect for a day off; but that does seems to be a big park across the gaps I suppose…..

        • Hit send too quickly….

          I’d guess Price really wants to win this series and also giving his best (defensive) support to Bailey may be a consideration. While I’ll agree BHam>Peraza at CF; I’m not sure in current condition that Cozart>Peraza at SS.

  8. The Old Cossack is really sorry to see Jay Bruce struggle since the trade to the Metropolitans, but I’m ecstatic to see the Mets (or any other large market team) come out on the short end of a trade. It does beg the question – what if Bruce struggles through the next month or two? I could see the Mets deciding to take the $1MM buyout rather than picking up the $13MM team option. Hmmmmmm…

    Speaking of contracts, I wonder what Cubbie fans are thinking about the Jason Heyward contract about now? Heyward is putting up a whopping .629 OPS (and it’s getting worse in the 2nd half) for his $22MM this season and $28MM for each of the next 2 seasons before proceeding to $110MM over the following 5 seasons. That’s Joey Votto money and nothing close to Joey Votto production.

    • Yeah, I don’t think people really grasp sometimes what players other than Reds’ players are making.

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