Titanic Struggle Recap

Reds gutsy comeback in 9th, lose on a wild pitch in the 11th

There has been no definitive word on when Brandon Finnegan will hit his innings limit for 2016, but it is certainly looming. Finnegan is doing his best to end his 2016 season on a high note, whenever that end might be.

Tonight, eight of Finnegan’s first ten outs recorded were strikeouts. Finnegan ended the night with a new career high of twelve, the second highest total by a Reds pitcher this season. Finnegan finished the night allowing just three hits and two runs over six innings. That coming off his last start when he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning.

The Reds offense was held in check for the majority of the night. They were however able to get an unlikely rally started in the eleventh hour. Ivan De Jesus Jr. singled on a 3-2 cout with two outs to keep the Reds alive down 2-1 in the ninth. Billy Hamilton followed that with a single of his own on another 3-2 count. Jose Peraza then singled the other way to right field to tied the game at two.

The Reds got right back to business in the top of the tenth inning. Eugenio Suarez singled, and then Scott Schebler had a bunt single, beating the shift. The Reds caught a break on a Diamondbacks balk, and Ramon Cabrera hit a sacrifice fly to give the Reds a 3-2 lead.

Raisel Iglesias has been dominant this season as a reliever, but he couldn’t close the door on the Diamondbacks in the bottom of the tenth. He allowed a walk, then a wild pitch, and a balk to move the runner over to third base. A weak ground ball hit by A.J. Pollack was just enough to score the runner from third base, despite a great effort from Brandon Phillips. Iglesias was able to get out of jam later in the inning, stranding runners on first and second base.

Blake Wood

The Reds would however lose the game in the bottom of the eleventh inning on a walk-off wild pitch by Blake Wood.

Final/11 innings R H E
Cincinnati Reds (54-73) 3 12 0
Arizona Diamondbacks (54-75) 4 7 0
W: Escobar (1-2) L: Wood (5-3)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

RedsDbacksWPA

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Blake Wood’s wild pitch in the 11th inning, allowing the Diamondbacks to score for a walk-off 4-3 win. That play decreased the Reds chances of winning by 36.2% (from 36.2% to 0.0%).

Player of the Game

Finnegan2

Brandon Finnegan: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 12 K, 2.31 FIP

Finnegan was absolutely terrific tonight. There have been several times that I’ve wrote this season about how Finnegan’s strikeouts have been down. That has been far from the case in his last two starts (13.0 IP, 20 K, 4 BB). I am sure that Finnegan is going have an innings cap very soon, and if so it sure would be great for him to finish out 2016 on a high note. I haven’t given up on him as starter on the next Reds contender.

Positives

Duvall

Adam Duvall had a two hit evening, including a double.

Zack Cozart pinch hit in the 7th inning. It was the first time Cozart had appeared in a game in 10 days. Cozy wasted no time, ripping a double to left field.

Michael Lorenzen pitched a perfect 7th inning. Through 32.0 IP this season, he has a 2.53 ERA/3.68 FIP with 32 K and 9 BB. Lorenzen looks like he will be a really great bullpen arm for the next Reds contender.

Joey Votto had a hit, and walked three times tonight (twice were intentional….how selfish of Joey!). Votto has now reached base in each of his last 19 starts, and 38 of his last 39 starts (he failed to reach base in a pinch-hit appearance on 8/21).

Jose Peraza was 0 for his last 9 heading into the 9th inning tonight, but he had the big RBI single to tie the game. Peraza also doubled in the 11th inning. It will be interesting to see what happens to Peraza with Cozart expected to return to the starting lineup tomorrow. I am sure Bryan Price will try to ease Cozart back into the lineup, so there will be some starts at SS. I’d like to see Peraza just rotate through LF, RF, 3B, SS, and 2B. Surely the Reds could afford to give Duvall, Schebler, Suarez, Cozart, and Phillips a day off once out of every 5 days the rest of the season, right?

Billy Hamilton reached base twice (a hit and a walk).

Eugenio Suarez reached base three times (a hit and a pair of walks).

Scott Schebler had two hits, including a big bunt single in the 10th inning beating the shift.

Negatives

Votto

There was some shaky defense from the Reds in the second inning. Billy Hamilton misplayed a ball off the wall that allowed Rickie Weeks to turn it into a triple. Later in the inning, Jose Peraza made a really brilliant play recovering a ball that went off Eugenio Suarez’ glove. Peraza made a great throw to first base, but Joey Votto couldn’t handle it, and it allowed Weeks to score with two outs. Votto probably should have made that play.

Raisel Iglesias has been great this season, but tonight wasn’t his night. His command was really shaky.

Blake Wood was not very good tonight. He walked the Diamondbacks backup catcher Tuffy Gosewisch, who has a .518 OPS, which lead to him coughing up the winning run.

Not so random thoughts………

Reggie Sanders was on the Dbacks broadcast tonight! Sanders is one of my all-time favorite Reds, and one of the most underrated as well. I wrote earlier this year that Sanders is the biggest Reds HOF snub.

When the Reds turned to their bullpen in the 7th inning, Diamondbacks TV color commentator Bob Brenly said “this is really the strength of this team of late.” Could you imagine if I told you in early May that someone would refer to the Reds bullpen as a strength in 2016? Oh how far we have come.

Up Next:

Reds at Diamondbacks
Saturday, 8:10 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Anthony DeSclafani (3.27 ERA) vs Zack Godley (5.53 ERA)

 

All statistics used courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and ESPN Stats and Info. All photos are used courtesy of the Cincinnati Enquirer, and are used by permission.

18 thoughts on “Reds gutsy comeback in 9th, lose on a wild pitch in the 11th

    • An understatement by me, striking out 8 of the first 10 batters and 12 over 6 innings, allowing only 3 hits and 2 walks, speaks for itself. He’ll be in the rotation in 2017, with Disco and Homer.

  1. A bit of a correction, Nick, in the 10th Iglesias walked the leadoff hitter (not a single).
    The DBacks tied it up in the bottom of the 10th before getting a hit. Iglesias seemed really worked up and was overthrowing. After the walk, a “wild pitch” that was a bit outside and went off Cabrera’s glove, then a strange balk when Iglesias went through an ordinary throwing motion but then held on to the ball, no idea why.

    All Wood needed to do with 2 outs was retire a .159 hitter who was on an 0-14 streak. So he walks him on 5 pitches so he can face Segura instead. Then the walkoff wild pitch that hit about 20 feet in front of the plate, couldn’t blame Cabrera for that one.

    The way the game was blown reminded me of the first half of the season.

    • Just a misstep by Iglesias as told by Welch. His toe hit the back of his calf while pushing to the mound. Mechanics play such a huge role as everybody knows at this level.

  2. As Nick pointed out, a lot of positives. Peraza had a really nice approach to RF in his final 2 ABs. Schebler’s bunt single against the shift made it look easy.

    I like the way Peraza looks at SS.

  3. I hope that the Reds go into September with the mindset to win every game. Finish the season strong. When we expand the roster to 40 the vast majority of those additional players are going to be pitchers. This will be a great time to see who is who in the bullpen for 2017. It is starting to look like we have a solid 5 man for the rotation.

  4. With the exception of a bad August 9 start against the Cardinals, Finnegan’s control has been much better the 2nd part of the season. He also had a tough stretch against the Nationals/Cubs and D-backs in late June/early July where he wasn’t very good at all. For a young pitcher, he has rebounded through that and is pitching his best baseball of the year. Comments were made about how effective his change up was last night, a pitch he didn’t throw when the D-backs knocked him out of the game earlier this summer and that kept them off balance and was a big factor in his 12k performance. That’s progress and adjustment and toughness. Nice to see.
    He may see his last start of the year against the Angels. That is the last game of the road trip and the rosters expand the next day coinciding with the Reds return to Cincinnati.

  5. Nice to see Finnegan back up a really good start against LA with another last night. He’s pitched himself into the rotation for next year until someone knocks him out. It’s his to lose at this point. Bailey, Disco, Finnegan and… Straily, Garrett, Reed, Stephenson, Lorenzen, Iglesias, and/or Chapman? Ok, probably not Chapman. Much more promising than 2016!

  6. Nick, you do a great job on recaps and I’m not being a hater but last nights Fangraphs WPA statistic belongs in the Captain Obvious stats.

    • They always put that stat in, even in those situations like what occurred in this game. Yes indeed, the probability of winning is down to 0.0%!

  7. I did not quite understand Daugherty’s point in his Votto column today. He said the obvious about the financial situation in baseball but offered no rational alternative to staying the course with Joey.

    • I read that, too. Seems to me that Daugherty was trying to make two points: 1. The Reds made a bad deal by offering Joey the long-term high-dollar contract and 2. MLB is at fault for continuing to allow the exorbitant players’ salaries. And, as you said, he offered no alternatives with Joey.

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