Jose Fernandez entered play today as one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball, and one of the toughest to hit a home run against. Fernandez 0.65 HR/9 is good for the 7th best in the majors.

Ramon Cabrera entered play today with 0 home runs in 100 at-bats in 2016. Cabrera only had 22 career home runs in nearly 3,000 at-bats in the minors.

You can’t predict baseball.

Cabrera ripped a three run bomb in the second inning off one of the best pitchers on the planet. It was his first home run of 2016. The Reds added two more runs off Fernandez, and chased him after just four innings. The Reds bullpen was shaky, but Raisel Iglesias finished off the Marlins in the 9th for 5-4 win. The Reds took three of four from the Marlins, and have now won eight of ten series to begin the second half of the season.

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (51-69) 5 8 2
Miami Marlins (62-59) 4 8 2
W: Straily (9-6) L: Fernandez (12-7) S: Iglesias (2)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Ramon Cabrera’s 3-run home run off Jose Fernandez with 1 out in the 2nd inning, giving the Reds a 3-0 lead (video). That play increased the Reds chances of winning by 22.5% (from 59.0% to 81.5%).


Player of the Game

Dan Straily: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 2.98 FIP, 0.15 WPA


Just another nice start from Dan Straily. In his last 3 starts, he has 17 strikeouts and ZERO walks. That is flat out getting it done.



Big night for Ramon Cabrera. He had two hits on the night, including the big three run bomb off Jose Fernandez (video). That had to feel really good for Ramon.

Blake Wood got out of Jumbo Diaz mess in this 7th inning with a big strikeout. He also pitched a scoreless 8th inning.

Joey Votto‘s hit streak might have come to an end at 8, but he did walk twice (once was intentional). Votto has now reached base in 30 of his last 31 games. Votto also made a really nice defensive play in the 1st inning (video). Votto has looked much better defensively of late.

Eugenio Surarez had an RBI double (video), and also made a really nice catch reaching into the stands (video).

Billy Hamilton is so freaking fast. He tagged up from second base on a fly ball to center, appeared to bait Marcell Ozuna into a throw, and Ozuna made a bad throw allowing Billy to score (video).

Raisel Iglesias pitched a perfect 9th inning for his second save.


Jumbo Diaz not only gave up a hit and walk in his two-thirds of an inning, but he also had a throwing error.

Not so random thoughts………

Raisel Iglesias = great as a starter…..move him to the bullpen

Raisel Iglesias = even better as a two inning reliever……move him to a 1 inning closer role

Oh boy.

Up Next:

Dodgers at Reds
Friday, 7:10 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Tim Adleman (3.72 ERA) vs Bud Norris (4.26 ERA)


All statistics used courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and ESPN Stats & Info. All photos are used courtesy of the Cincinnati Enquirer, and are used by permission.

29 Responses

  1. msanmoore

    I’m thinking 3 of 4 from the Fish is a good thing. That’s what I’m thinking.

  2. Vicferrari

    Why in the world are they not starting Sampson tomorrow? Adleman made some nice starts while he was up and dominated AAA since he came back from injury but who is the prospect? Are they seriously grooming Sampson for the mop up roll, long relief guy when the starter gets rocked. Sampson threw 5 solid innings and had 4 days rest

    • Jay King

      Don’t like the choice either there are so many other options that would be better.

  3. Dan

    I guess you didn’t read the post on where Price said he is not going to define pitching roles . 1 game doesn’t equal a pattern. He was part of the winning solution and I think Price did a fantastic job of managing the pitching element of this game.

    • Nick Kirby

      Yes, I read it. I actually posted a quote about that in tonight’s game preview. There is valid reason to be concerned about Iglesias ending up being wasted as a closer.

      1. See Aroldis Chapman
      2. This quote from Iglesias: “I like coming in from the bullpen. I want to be a closer,” Iglesias said this week in Washington, according to interpreter Julio Morillo.

      • mdhabel

        I am just going to ignore this problem that is seemingly developing right in front of our eyes and hope it goes away. It’s easy to do when the Reds play as well as they are.

      • Jay King

        Those two statements have scared the crap out of me too…. Iglesias needs to be a starter. Don’t make the same stupid mistake as with Chapman.

  4. CI3J

    After the ASB, the Reds’ record sat at 33-57, 24 games below .500.

    As of today, their record is 51-69, 18 games under .500.

    Is it just me, or does it feel like their record should have improved a lot more than that given how much they’ve been winning lately?

    • Chad Dotson

      Perhaps, but their record after the ASB is 18-12. Stretched out over a full season, that’s a 97 win pace. Long season, can’t turn it around in one month when you get in that big a hole.

      • Bruuuuuce

        We’ve lost 7 one run games in that stretch. Win two of those and 20-10 looks a whole lot better.

      • Scotly50

        Yeah, this team needs to go on a ten game winning streak to just get some interest up. But I am glad to see the team winning some series.

      • greenmtred

        They’re pretty interesting now, don’t you think?

    • Vicferrari

      part of being bad enough to get to 25 games under .500 puts you in such a hole playing .600 ball over a 30 games stretch bareley puts a dent. But they should have had a better record improved with better management IMO. I saw they have had the best ERA and BA against in the majors since the ASB. Besides Votto has been out of this world, Billy, Tucker, Suarez and BP are playing at All-star levels and Duvall has been adequate. Bruce was amazing right before being traded, I think Reed and Lamb started half the losses and typically put them too far behind after the first inning

    • ohiojimw

      It is almost like once a game is in the loss column, it takes 2 wins to offset it against overall .500 for the season because each additional loss puts the team -1 to .500 from where it was before the game was played.

      From 33-57 the Red would have to go 48-24 to finish at .500. That would be a .667 rate post ASB.

      Maybe one of the math mavens can explain it.

    • Chuck Schick

      Perhaps if you looked at it as “net wins.” They just took 3/4….but that is only 2 net wins. They’ve won a few series by taking 2 of 3…..but that is only 1 net win.

      Since the ASB,they’ve won 18 of 30…..which is 6 net wins.

      • Vicferrari

        People keep saying it 18-12 they played 31 games since the ASB, pretty sure they
        19-12 since then, Not that makes much of a difference but winning at that pace all season gets you to the playoffs but does little to get you out of a 25 games under hole

      • ohiojimw

        To be on the rate that would get them to .500 for the overall season from the ASB, they would need to have a couple of more wins since they break than they have recorded to date.

        Per the official MLB standings this morning, they are 51-69 which leaves 42 games to go. 30-12 (.714) would get them to .500 for the season. If they continue to play at the rate they have so far since the ASB break, they will win ~25 more games and end up at ~76-86

  5. JB WV

    Reds are now 1 game behind Milwaukee. 1 game to get out of the cellar. That would be an accomplishment.

    • Vicferrari

      What I was going to post, watch out Philadelphia and Oakland as the Reds use you as rudders climbing the ladder to the top 20 in the league

  6. Earl Nash

    If the Reds stay out of 100 losses and last place, it’s a win considering the smoking crater they were in at the end of May. Those were possibly the worst two months of Reds baseball in my lifetime.

    • Scotly50

      I attended this first game as a Red. He pitched three innings and did not give up a hit. Kept us in the game. I liked him then and like him now.

  7. IndyRedMan

    Last 30 days Straily is 5-0 with a 2.68 era and 1.00 whip

    He’s been really good! Its amazing how he basically gives them 1 good strike to hit and then usually gets them to chase something a little bit low or a little bit high or inside/outside but close enough to get a swing and weaker contact!

    • ohiojimw

      Straily seems to get it that his job is really a job and approaches it with the same sort of frame of mind many (hopefully most) work a day folks do. He has an honest assessment of his own strengths and weaknesses and studies video of upcoming batters to figure out the same about them so he can pitch to their weaknesses.

  8. Earl Nash

    So is there any indication that working with Price and/or Power found something that has Straily pitching this well.

    From what I got from some of the articles before about Straily around here they were seeming to say ‘he’s getting lucky’ – is this still the case?

    That said, it is not unheard of for a pitcher that has kicked around for a few years all the sudden at age 27 to 29 figuring it out and becoming really good. I tend to doubt that Straily will be say Dave Stewart good, but it would be nice if he could keep this up going into next year.

  9. james garrett

    His margin for error is small because he can’t over power batters but boy can he pitch.When you consistently do what he has done this year you have to give him credit in a big way.He reminds me a lot of Bronson but on occasion he got bombed and I mean bombed but Straily hasn’t.He will give up some hits but he seems to get that big out or double play when needed.Its going to be real hard for him not be in the rotation is the way I see it.Somebody will have to out pitch him because he won’t give it up.

  10. Shchi Cossack

    If Straily locks down a back-end starting rotation slot for 2017, the Reds will be swimming in gravy, if the front office can manager the 25-mand and 40-man rosters effectively. One of two of the starting candidates may find themselves relagated to an additional season in AAA rather than pitching out of the bullpen or starting rotation at the MLB level, but this would allow the front office to extend the effective service time for the starting rotation candidates and make the best possible trade using one of their starters to land that bat upgrade they may need and possibly even move Bailey’s contract.