Titanic Struggle Recap

Barnhart’s grand slam lifts the Reds past the fish

The Reds got off to a big start on Tuesday evening, in route to a 6-3 win over the Marlins. Ivan De Jesus Jr. walked with the bases loaded in the first inning to get the Reds on the board. Tucker Barnhart followed that with a grand slam, to push the Reds lead to 5-1.

Anthony DeSclafani worked around base-runners all evening long. That didn’t stop him from another solid pitching performance. DeSclafani has now allowed 3 ER or less in 12 of his 13 starts this season.

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (49-69) 6 8 0
Miami Marlins (62-57) 3 8 0
W: DeSclafani (7-1) L: Urena (1-4) S: Cingrani (14)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Thread

Reds Marlins WPA

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Tucker Barnhart’s grand slam with 2 outs in the 1st inning, giving the Reds a 5-1 lead. That play increased the Reds chances of winning by 28.2% (from 57.1% to 85.3%).

Player of the Game

Tucker Barnhart: 1 for 3, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 0.27 WPA

Tucker 2

Barnhart had the big grand slam in the first inning. He also threw out the speedy Dee Gordon in the 5th inning. Barnhart has really been terrific for the Reds this season. He is now hitting .267/.331/.410 on the season. Barnhart now has a .741 OPS on the season. At the moment, Yadier Molina has a .739 OPS.

Positives

Scott Schebler had three hits. That was good to see for Schebs. He has struggled at the major league level this season in a small sample size, despite positing a .934 OPS at AAA.

That Joey Votto guy had another hit tonight, and has now hit safely in 26 of his last 28 games. Votto has reached base safely in 28 of his last 29 games.

Disco

Anthony DeSclafani continues to roll. He did allowed 7 hits on the evening, but he didn’t walk a batter and struck out 6. Disco now has a 3.10 ERA/3.71 FIP through 13 starts this season. Right now you have to feel good with a rotation in 2017 anchored by Bailey and DeSclafani.

Raisel Iglesias allowed a solo home run to Christian Yelich, but that was all over two innings. Iglesias struck out 4 batters tonight. I’ve said it before, this two inning relief role for Iglesias is really great if he can’t start.

Negatives

Tony Renda, Ivan De Jesus Jr., and Tyler Holt were all in the lineup on the same night. Yikes.

Not so random thoughts……………

I’ll be completely honest, I haven’t watched the Reds closely the last couple weeks. I’m a big fan of the Olympics, and that has kept my focus. I had my eye on both tonight (it was a pretty slow night of competition in Rio), so hopefully I didn’t miss anything important in tonight’s recap.

Up Next:

Marlins at Reds
Wednesday, 7:05 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Homer Bailey (4.30 ERA/1.70 FIP) vs Andrew Cashner (5.08 ERA/4.87 FIP)

 

All statistics used courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and ESPN Stats and Info. All photos used courtesy of the Cincinnati Enquirer, and are used by permission.

42 thoughts on “Barnhart’s grand slam lifts the Reds past the fish

  1. I see progress…. Suarez is playing better defensively at third, has an absolute bazooka of an arm and appears to be improving at the plate. I would not move him elsewhere. Barnhart is an everyday catcher. Terrific defensively and appears to be improving at the plate. I might consider having him drop the switch-hitting but cannot back that up with numbers. Love Disco’s competitiveness. And Iglesias is terrific.

    On the flip side:

    Joey needs to keep his head in the game when not at bat. I do not like Cingrani as closer… He does not come into the game with the “killer/I’m gonna kick your ass” attitude needed. I hate Olendorf. There’s a reason that complicated delivery went out with the Boston Braves. Just because he is purportedly ” the smartest player in the Majors” as reported by the Marlins announcers… They ridiculed the delivery where the ball is not even gripped until it is half-over.

    • That line up was painful. Reds should’ve sold those tickets at half the face value. Take away Votto and that may be the cheapest lineup In the league.

      Good to see timely hitting and solid pitching. This team has been downright pleasant to watch since the ASB.

      • Agree on both counts. When I first saw the line up my thought was that running that group out together in spring training would probably get them a nastygram from MLB HQ about not playing the required number of “regulars”.

        • I had to chuckle when DeJesus came up with the bases loaded, it struck me how I didn’t want him batting second for those few games, because he kept coming to the plate when the Reds really needed Votto there, so even when he gets moved down in the lineup, the big RBI chance still fell to him. And he actually got one.

      • Looking at all the empty seats my guess is the scalpers were practically giving tickets away.

        • Probably… Bad team, bad weather… I got tickets last year through TiqIQ here at RLN for below face value a handful of times.

      • Kinda stuck with Hamilton and Phillips (who no one seems to like…I do) out. Really the only other missing was Duvall.

    • I’m not supporting Ohlendorf, but that complicated delivery, or one much like it,was used by a lot of great pitchers. I’d be delighted to have Warren Spahn in my rotation, delivery and all.

  2. The Marlins announcers kept referring to DeSclafani as Disco. He must have got that nickname in Miami or at UF in Gainesville. Barnhart has become a solid ML player at a key position for a winning team.

    • Agree on Barnhart. He seems to have really stabilized since Cabrera has been catching a couple of games a week. Thus looking ahead, I hope they get a strong backup guy to compliment Barnhart next year rather than counting ahead of time on getting any meaningful contribution from Mesoraco. If Meso would happen to come around, well then, that would be one of those good problems to have.

      • And yes, I think the page has turned to where Mesoraco has to win back the job on the field if he is to be then regular catcher.

        • This. Barnhardt is no longer the backup. Mesoraco better be demonstrate that he is a force to be reckoned with in spring training. Otherwise the Reds might as well take as long as they want before bringing him up as the backup.

        • Mesoraco is owed $7 million in 2017 and $13 million in 2018. He will play. The question is will he be any good or are his best 3 months in 2014 and his only good months part of history never to be seen again.

          • The man who will be GM and Pres (or is it VP?) of Reds Baseball Ops next season won’t be the guy who did Meso’s contract.

            Hopefully he won’t feel tied to it and will tell his mgr to dole out PT based on merit and production.

            Maybe he would even consider eating up to half of the contract to get it off the books to a team in the DH league which is most likely where Meso’s best hope for a successful future lies.

      • With his reputation when he came up to the Reds as a good defense/no offense receiver, I would have never guess he would have a 12 game hitting streak at any point in his career. He’s always been better defensively than Mesoraco but whatever he’s done to improve his hitting is impressing me.

        • I always liked Barnhart’s swing…compact, usually good contact. Meso has that big swing, which, while he had it working a couple of years ago, I’m not sure he’s had enough success with to demonstrate that he’s more than an Adam Dunn kind of slugger. I’m sure there are those who disagree.

  3. “Tony Renda, Ivan De Jesus Jr., and Tyler Holt were all in the lineup on the same night. Yikes.”
    NIck, might want to get used to this. It is called the youth movement. Granted these are the B stringers but you never know. Looking at how frail some of our guys are in the minors these just might be the ones that wind up sticking around.

        • Looks like when Lorenzen comes back which will be ahead of the roster expansion date, the Reds are going to have (at least) one little bit of 25 man roster shell game still to play, assuming none of the walking wounded go to the DL.
          I don’t think they will send down a pitcher. The obvious person is Waldrop; but, Holt hasn’t played well of late. Thus if they are comfortable with Schebler in CF, why not option Holt. Whoever it is can come back after the expansion date once they’ve been down the minimum10 days; and, in Holt’s case since he would have spent less than 20 days on option during the season, the option would not be be lost for future use.
          I’d read somewhere that they were also in a little bit of a box over YRod’s rehab period because it was going to expire before the expansion date. However, when he tweaked his leg a couple of weeks back, I think they temporarily pulled him off rehab which if accurate remedied that situation.

  4. “That play increased the Reds chances of winning by 28.2% (from 57.1% to 85.3%).”

    Just a minor nitpick, not a criticism, but that play increased the Reds chances of winning by 28.2 percentage POINTS.

    But it actually increased their chances of winning by 49.3% (28.2 divided by 57.1).

  5. I think you still have to make every effort next year to develop Iglesias as a starter. His repertoire screams starter to me. Until he proves he can’t hold up physically……

    Anyone else get a Drew Stubbs vibe from Eugenio Suarez? Meaning, he refuses to cut down on his swing with two strikes and is ok with striking out a lot in exchange for the occasional long ball. It just seems bullheaded to me. I get that not adjusting on the fly is standard procedure with most major leaguers, but for guys with long swings, this depresses their numbers more than most.

    • I compared up Stubbs and Saurez, and I can see some statistical similarities, although Saurez came up a bit younger than Stubbs. I didn’t look up swing-and-miss stats on them, which is what I remember as being Stubbs’s downfall.

      The big difference is that Stubbs is 5 inches taller than Saurez, and has a different swing. I don’t thing Saurez’s swing is so much long as it is hard, which causes him to pull off the ball with the left shoulder when he goes cold. I actually like Saurez a lot more than most on this board, and I think he will tighten up his swing over the next year and become a very good offensive player.

      Saurez murders lefties, and has an OPS of .934 this year against them, but can be brutal against RH. If you take out his horrendous month of May, which is fair to do in evaluating a young hitter, then he’s had a decent season. He is playing much better defensively.

      I admit to being an inveterate advocate of position-changing, but I can see the Reds moving Saurez to right field. A lot of 3B guys have moved to rightfield through the years, and he certainly has the arm to play there. That would open 3B for Senzel and leave left for Winker.

  6. Nice game last night. I’d go to battle with Bailey, DeSclafani, and Iglesias as the top 3 in the rotation for 2017. That leaves 2 spots for about 9 guys to battle it out next spring. Finnegan, Reed, Lamb, Garrett, Lorenzen, Stephenson, Moscot, Sampson and Adelman.

    • What about Strailey? I’m impressed with the way he’s pitched this year.

      • Yeah. If Straily keeps performing at an average or slightly better level, I say he’s gotta be in the mix for sure.

        • I love Straily… but I’m afraid he is going to be one of those guys I fall in love with this season who struggles next spring and I make excuses for him, then he starts the year and becomes NON-2016 Straily. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m afraid that is who he will be.

        • Straley gets no respect. He just puts up quality start after quality start. He should be in the rotation next year.

  7. That was fun! Bailey and DeSclafani are a strong #1 and #2. Forget the home run; Raisel was dealing and missing bats! Raisel anchors the pen and shoudl be kept there and used strategically–as he is too fragile for the rotation.

    The only note of discord is Tony C. (Cingrani, not Conigliaro). Despite the double play which got us out of the jam, he was not all that effective. He lacked control and walked a batter to bring the tying run to the plate. He needs to pitch further down in the pen. He is fine but is not a 9th inning closer (dread the word “closer”)..

    All in all, especially looking at the pitchers. I’m feeling good about next year!

  8. The Reds’ pitchers are now a robust 13-for-208 (AVG .063) for the year. Straily is 0-37 with 30 Ks. They are last in the NL with 13 hits; the next worst are the Marlins and Brewers with 22 hits, and Arizona leads with 42. Their pitchers are tied for 3rd in the NL in GIDP, and lead all teams in strikeout rates.

    The Reds are 26th–behind 11 AL teams–in pitchers’ slugging percentage.

    I hope they spend some time at their local colleges this winter, working on their hitting. This is the converse of Bob Gibson’s telling Tim McCarver that “The only thing you know about pitching is that it’s hard to hit.”

    • Yet so many people still think pitchers hitting is “fun” and “interesting.”

      I just don’t get it at all…

      And for the love of all things good, someone better not reply with “But strategy!”

      • The NL is doomed unless it moves to the DH. They have the DH in college ball and all through the minors. Pitchers do not learn to hit or bunt in real games. No issue in the AL but it sure hurts in the NL.

      • I hate the DH… Honestly, I’d rather just go with an 8-man lineup… That said, the union would never go for it.

      • Having said that about hating the DH, I must add that Edgar Martinez should be a HoF and I think Ortiz is headed there.

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