Game Thread

Reds at Pirates – August 6, 2016

Billy

The Cincinnati Reds (44-64) will look to rebound from a tough 3-2 loss last night to the Pittsburgh Pirates (54-53). The two teams will square off again at PNC Park tonight at 7:05.

Starting Pitchers

BaileyNova

Homer Bailey was very good in his 2016 debut on Sunday (5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 HR, 3 BB, 6 K, 2.61 FIP). Here is what I wrote about Bailey in Sunday’s recap:

It was awesome to see Bailey back on the hill. He dominated through the first five innings, and at one point retired 13 consecutive batters. He ran into trouble in the 6th inning, walking all three of his batters in the game in the inning. He had a bit of a mental breakdown when he walked he bases loaded, then turned around in frustration knowing he was going to be taken out of the game. Wil Myers alertly stole home without a throw. Still, none of that should take away from a really great first start back for Bailey. His stuff was electric today.

Bailey has pitched very well in his career against the Pirates, especially at PNC Park. He threw a no-hitter there in 2012, and has 3.28 career ERA against the Pirates in 18 starts (1.92 ERA in 8 starts at PNC Park).


Ivan Nova will be making his Pittsburgh Pirates debut tonight. Nova was acquired on Monday from the Yankees for two players to be named later. Nova has sort of fallen off the cliff the last few seasons. In 2013, Nova posted a 3.10 ERA/3.47 FIP in 20 starts for the Yankees. Since then, he has posted a 5.31 ERA/5.16 FIP in 36 starts between 2014-16. David Slusser of Fansided wrote a nice piece explaining why the Pirates went after Nova, and why he could actually help their rotation. Here is part of that:

Ivan Nova does not have solid numbers, as he has a 4.90 ERA, but that number is still better than the 5.63 ERA from Jeff Locke and the 5.46 ERA from Francisco Liriano, ranking second and fourth worst in all of baseball respectively. The one thing Locke has that the other two don’t is a FIP under 5, with Nova at 5.09 and Liriano at 5.27. Nova’s SIERA, however, is the best of the three at 4.00, whereas Locke is 5.18 and Liriano is at 4.68.

When looking to see how the three pitchers will proceed in the future, Nova’s xFIP of 4.07 is better than Liriano’s 4.52 and Locke’s 4.97. Not to say, Nova will be better than Liriano, because if Frank finds his command, he’ll be back to being filthy Frank once more, and that would be better than anything Nova will likely provide. But with the numbers that the three have posted this season, Nova looks like he will be the safer bet going forward.

Starting Lineup

Reds Pirates
1. Billy Hamilton (CF)
2. Zack Cozart (SS)
3. Joey Votto (1B)
4. Adam Duvall (LF)
5. Brandon Phillips (2B)
6. Scott Schebler (RF)
7. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
8. Tucker Barnhart (C)
9. Homer Bailey (P)
1. Josh Harrison (2B)
2. Starling Marte (LF)
3. Andrew McCutchen (CF)
4. Matt Joyce (RF)
5. David Freese (3B)
6. John Jaso (1B)
7. Francisco Cervelli (C)
8. Jordy Mercer (SS)
9. Ivan Nova (P)

Conclusion

The Reds currently have won six consecutive series. If they want to keep that cool streak alive, they’ll have to win tonight and tomorrow. Go Reds!

59 thoughts on “Reds at Pirates – August 6, 2016

  1. I see “old friend” Curtis Partch has been called up by the Pirates to fill the bullpen spot created by their waiver deal earlier in the day

      • I got into a debate several years ago about the significance of one-run loses. I tried to argue that they were no more significant than two-run losses, three-run loses, etc. I recall that at the time of the debate five of the six division leaders were below 500 in one-run games. This year the Cubs have the best record in baseball. They are 15-16 in one-run games.

        • Record in one-run games is thought to be essentially random, with little to no correlation with overall record. Might be an interesting project for an undergraduate.

        • Yes, it would be a good project. An argument I often hear is that good managers win one-run games. I often counter with, “how do you know good managers aren’t turning potential two or three-run losses into one-run losses.”

    • The Reds winning percentage in 1 run games is higher than their overall winning percentage.

      • I would love to see the record in 1 run games for playoff teams in the past 10 years or so.I would think it would answer the “no correlation statement”.
        It may not be the only factor reflecting the ability of a manager but it certainly must be an indication.Another interesting project for someone with a lot of time on their hands would be to find the records in 1 run games of the 10 winningest managers of all time

  2. Opposition pitchers wo make their debuts are often tough on the Reds. Let’s hope the offense can give Homer some support.

  3. My guess is we will struggle at the plate but their our signs from time to time that we are beginning to work the pitcher more.

  4. Nova looked pretty good in that first inning. Threw a couple really nice fastballs with life right on the inside corner to Cozart and Duvall

  5. Good for Phillips! I’m glad he’s got that monkey off his back. Good job by the bottom of the lineup to come back and take the lead. Now Homer needs to step up and shut ’em down for a few innings.

  6. The one run game thing:

    It can indeed be random, if it occurs in a statistically insignificant way, at random times throughout the season.

    It can also be indicative of a bad bullpen, or a weakness in the bullpen. One run losses standing alone may be meaningless. What would be interesting is to correlate the effectiveness of the bullpen in holding a lead, or run scoring by the offense in innings later than the 6th inning. Pittsburgh has had a very good bullpen the last few years. Maybe not so good this year?

    How many games have the Reds lost this year because the first man someone out of the bullpen faced hit a home run. That has happened 22 times this year, I think. Is that just statistically random? I’ve never seen a team do that this often, but I could be wrong.

    How many of the one run losses came after the team held a lead? How many were due to the offense inability to score in the last three innings?

    Losing isn’t random, but how you lose may appear to be. There are always reasons why a team loses games, or a particular game. Bad teams lose more games than good teams; tell me that is random.

    • Watching every Reds game this season,I dont think the losses by 1 run are random.I think our brilliant manager has mismanaged a majority of them.

      • Reds winning percentage in 1-run games (.432) is better than their winning percentage overall (.404). Proves the opposite.

  7. BP seems to have bounced back nicely from early injuries to his leg and wrist. He seemed to be less aggressive at the plate opting for contact over power. (Most likely due to the injuries), thus mostly singles and the occasional double. July produced a 16 game hitting streak, followed by 3 pretty strong games in a row.

  8. 59 pitches in 2.2 innings…Homer needs to battle off the bases loaded hook

  9. Bunt,walk,hit by pitch,hit by pitch gives them a run.One of those years.

  10. Homer seems to be throwing an awful lot of breaking pitches. Pirates are just taking them for balls.

  11. Every Buc hitter has an OBP of 300 or higher except Harrison.I don’t know if they walk a lot but they get on base.

  12. Actually it looked like if BP would’ve covered 2nd on the dribbler up the middle that they could’ve got the force at 2nd. Oh well.

    The thing that gets me is that Homer really isn’t the guy to question the Reds management. Not when he’s one of the reasons we are where we are! They said tonite that he’s been on the DL 7 times! Doesn’t that make it 5 times before the contract? I know we’ve beat this in the ground so I apologize but it bugs me.

  13. Three up and 3 down on 12 pitches and Schleber saw 8 of them.I am done for tonight.Go Reds.

    • That was ridiculous though….lol. It was like he doesn’t understand the rules! That ball was never going to be caught.

  14. I love Homer but when he had the quote after the JB trade about ‘is the front office even trying to win’ I thought he was due for a slice of humble pie. One of the biggest contracts on the team and gone for over a year — does he not realize that made life a lot tougher in the front office? Hopefully he shakes this one off.

    • That’s a fair assessment. That’s the 1st thing I thought of after the comment

    • We are fortunate. Especially adding the HBP with the hard hit balls. Bit we have been able to get to this guy. Dont think its over yet.

  15. I believe Bailey should be one of the worst investments made by Reds in the last 10 years or so in terms of WAR/$

  16. Can’t believe the bad luck on the backhand stab by Kang on Billy’s smash to 3rd

    • Had to stay with bunt play, runners in 2nd & 3rd with one out at worst

  17. So who would you have signed AT THAT TIME? Injured Cueto, Latos, or emerging Bailey?

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