2016 Reds

Sorting the Rotation’s Identity Crisis

May 18, 2016: Raisel Iglesias, Anthony DeSclafani, and Homer Bailey are all on the disabled list; Jumbo Diaz and Keyvius Sampson are recalled to the big league club; J.J. Hoover is in Louisville; Steve Delabar had walked four straight batters with two outs and the bases loaded the night before; and Fox Sports’ Dieter Kurtenbach calls the Reds bullpen “borderline unwatchable” and says it “could be the worst in baseball history.”

Deep breath.

August 5, 2016: Anthony DeSclafani and Homer Bailey have rejoined the rotation; Raisel Iglesias along with Michael Lorenzen are shoring up the bullpen; Keyvius Sampson is on the big league roster despite not having pitched since July 23; J.J. Hoover is still in Louisville; Steve Delabar is in Japan; and Brandon Finnegan and the “borderline unwatchable” bullpen shut out the Cardinals yesterday.

The Reds pitching staff is no longer “the worst in baseball history;” now it’s just your average, everyday bad.

Between May 18 and August 5, the Reds bullpen cut 1.25 points from their ERA and moved safely away from the 1930 Phillies record-setting 8.05 mark. They still have the worst bullpen ERA in all the majors at 5.21 AND the third worst starter ERA at 5.13, but there’s nothing historic about either of those numbers, which feels a bit like a victory.

Steve went over the non-improvement improvement of the bullpen last week, concluding: “The Reds bullpen has snapped out of its April/May death spiral. Over the last 30 days or so they have been functioning approximately as a normal, league-average pen, although not quite.” The cause of the shift? “The performances of Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen replacing those of J.J. Hoover and J.C. Ramirez.”

But while the bullpen took the majority of the headlines at the start of the season, as mentioned before, the starters haven’t been that much better. And to be honest, they still aren’t that good.

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By ERA, the Reds starters have been about 0.70 above the NL average all season, doubling that margin during a rather horrendous May. But as we all know, ERA isn’t always the best measure of a pitcher’s worth.

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Sadly, more accurate measures deem the Reds’ starters to be inadequate too.

On Opening Day, the Reds rotation consisted of Raisel Iglesias, Brandon Finnegan, Robert Stephenson, Alfredo Simon, and Tim Melville. Due to injury, healed injury, and aggressive promotion, the rotation now consists of Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan, Dan Straily, and Cody Reed. While the numbers only show a minor improvement over the Opening Day corps, in this one instance, its not about the numbers at all.

Consider the character types of the Reds original rotation:

  1. Raisel Iglesias–Okay, this one makes sense and if it weren’t for injury, he’d still be starting. But he is single-handedly making a horrible bullpen average, so that’s something.
  2. Brandon Finnegan–Still in the rotation: pass.
  3. Robert Stephenson–Future of the rotation but wasn’t quite ready for the big leagues / his service time considerations took precedent.
  4. Alfredo Simon–Walt playing his greatest hits on his way out the door didn’t quite go as planned.
  5. Tim Melville–Everyone deserves a chance at stardom.

Of the five, only three factor into the Reds future, and one of those three would’ve factored better in AAA at the season’s start. This rotation, numbers aside, was haphazard and bad for the organization as a whole.

Now, the current rotation:

  1. Homer Bailey–Big ticket, ace pitcher. Foundation of this staff who can now use the second half of the season to work out the injury kinks in preparation for next year.
  2. Anthony DeSclafani–The most polished of the young up-and-comers. Like Bailey, can now use the rest of the season to work off the rust and get ready for 2017.
  3. Brandon Finnegan–Has been here from the get-go. He’s doing trial by fire, and I promise that yes, he will eventually “get it.”
  4. Dan Straily–To be honest, it would have been better had he been traded, but Dan Straily has filled the Alfredo Simon 2.0 role far better than Alfredo Simon ever did. Plus, now we know that the Reds have solid number six, spot starter in 2017 should the injury bug strike again.
  5. Cody Reed–Where Robert Stephenson needs time in the minors, Cody Reed needs it in the bigs. Whatever stats he puts up truly don’t matter as long as he gets the experience to perform and perform well in 2017 and beyond.

Scanning the above list, every pitcher serves purpose. Unlike the start of the season, none of these guys are eating innings simply because there was a roster spot open and why not? All of these pitchers can use the rest of 2016 to make the Reds organization better in the long-term, not the present.

When I started to research this post, I assumed I would find that the current Reds’ pitching staff was far better than it was back in May. That there would be this huge, dissonant shift in results proving the Reds are a much better team now than three months ago. In terms of numbers, sure, they probably are marginally better. But we’re at that point in the Reds’ 2016 where numbers only mean fatter contracts and career accolades. We can dream of magical wild card run, but dreams rarely translate to reality.

To get to the heart of it, I don’t think the Reds are any better on the field than they were back in May. Yet, in terms of organizational hopes, dreams, and aspirations, the Reds are aways ahead from where they started the season. (On the pitching side of things at least.)

This season, we’ve learned a lot about the young arms–Finnegan, Iglesias, DeSclafani, Lorenzen, Reed, and Stephenson–that have been touted as the organization’s future bedrock for the past year. Now that Homer Bailey is back, we can start to figure out how he fits into this big, messy rebuild as well. Even Dan Straily, picked up from the Padres on the last day of March, has found a potential long-term role with the club (even if it is on the small side).

Trust me, I’m beyond relieved that the Reds bullpen has somewhat turned itself around, and while bottom-feeding isn’t fun, at least it’s productive. We’re starting to see the fruits of this rebuild–a good pitching staff in 2017 and beyond–and I don’t think we could’ve asked for much more than that from 2016.

13 thoughts on “Sorting the Rotation’s Identity Crisis

  1. On the team’s overall ERA, currently at 5.11, they’re only .04 worse than AZ. As long as they can go out and give up at least one ER less in the same number of innings, this dumpster fire of first half pitching will have only the second worst ERA in baseball!

  2. “When I started to research this post, I assumed I would find that the current Reds’ pitching staff was far better than it was back in May”
    I feel like you saying that the current staff is not. But they are so much better in things a staff can do, like go deep into games and not depend on a bullpen to bail them out of a jam, which is what was not happening in April and May.
    There was no Iglesias-type to move to an awful bullpen so it is hard to fairly compare him to this current staff as he has made their decent performances hold up. Cody Reed has been far the worst of the current bunch but is much better than Mellville and Simon or the handful of other guys who were just as lousy- save Adleman.
    How often has someone had to warm-up in the 4th inning since the summer Soltice? This has preventive the parade of AAA cast-offs wearing out the road from Louisville just to have a fresh arm.

  3. Maybe I’m way off here, but I feel like the starting staff’s recent numbers would look much more like what you thought you’d see if you took Reed’s performances out. His numbers may be inflating the rest of the group. Finnegan has had some ugly performances, but he’s had a few decent ones in there to balance that out a little.

    • That was 1 of the points I tried to make above, but regardless Reed has been better than Mellville or Simon despite his poor performance. Disco has been much better than Iglesias, Finnegan’s a wash, Bailey is comparable to Stephenson. Strailey takes this current rotation to an entirely different level.

  4. The more I see DeSclafani, the more I think he’ll usurp Homer’s role of de facto ace. And not because of any fault of Homer’s.

  5. I missed the part where all the other teams were clamoring to have Dan Strailey on their staffs. What were we going to get for him?

  6. Where is there ANY evidence that Bailey is an ace of any staff. That is such a ridiculous misconception. Homer’s best season was barely above league average ERA (and none of his seasons were anywhere near as good as any of Cueto). This is not opinion, just look at his stats.

  7. I’m hoping the passage of time will eventually sort the varying ways the cases of Reed, Stephenson, and Sampson have been handled this year.

    Let’s start with Sampson since his story is likely less familiar to most folks. He didn’t make the grade as a starter last year; struggled as an MLB reliever early on this year and found himself back at AAA. He ended up in the AAA starting rotation and over a six week to two month period arguably out pitched both Reed and Stephenson. It is there in the numbers for anyone to see in WhIP, HR/9, K/9 rates where Sampson had the best of all 3 rates during that period while Reed had the better BB/9. Sampson eventually made it back to the MLB club but has been sparsely used, last pitching almost 2 weeks ago in a spot start where he gave a solid accounting of himself similar to what he had done as a starter at AAA. Before moving on I’ll add for those who may not know that Sampson is still only in his age 25 season and not a wizened vet bedazzling kids a AAA with 4A stuff.

    Stephenson of course had the two early MLB spot starts. He pitched 12 innings in them; and, the team team won both games, We were told when he was sent back to AAA after each performance that it was due to service time considerations. At AAA he has had his ups and downs, largely related to control issues. Still he has taken the ball every 5 days and made 19 AAA starts in which he pitched 109.2 innings with a WhIP of 1.3, a HR/9 of 1,1, K/9 of 7.9 and BB/9 of 4.8. The party line is that he needs to improve his command to earn a recall to MLB, However I’m starting to have doubts that we will see Stephenson back in the MLB this season, even in September, His total innings for the season (AAA+MLB) now stand at over 120. The most innings he has ever pitched in a season is ~135. If he continues to take his regular turns at AAA all through August and pitch his typical 6+ innings, I’m not certain he will have innings left to use in September with the Reds.

    I’ve gotten long winded here. Let’s just say we all know what’s happened with Reed at MLB in the last going on a month. It’s painful at this point to see him continue to be beaten around. While he may need to learn what it is he needs to learn at the MLB level, it certainly looks like he could use a breather at this juncture.

    • Pretty much sums it up. As for Reed, it is a breather that he needs. He needs to go back down to a place where he can work on some things and not have to worry about every mistake getting killed.

      • I look for Sampson to start picking up some starter innings at MLB later in August and through September. That’s about the only way to make sense of his current inactivity, other than possible injury; and, he looked pretty healthy in Pittsburgh Saturday.

        Reed is at 105 innings and has a career top end of 145 (last year). Sampson could pick some innings up from him as well as from Finnegan.

        Sampson is probably in good shape on innings. He has a career high of 150+ (20123) but has done only 90 then 80 in the last two years. Hes just under 80 now but I’d think they’s let him go as high 120 given his prior history.

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