Trade Deadline

Dan Straily trade news

Jerry Crasnick of ESPN tweeted a new Reds player name that came up in trade talks – Dan Straily.

The reluctance to trade Straily could well be a negotiating posture. Starting pitching is scarce at the deadline. Taking advantage of that is smart.

If so, good for them. But there is only so much time left before the trade deadline so they don’t want to pose their way into inaction.

Dan Straily is having a solid year for the Reds. His ERA is 3.84, but he’s benefited an enormous amount from a low BABIP of .227 and a low HR/FB as well. That why the ERA-estimators for him are higher. His FIP is 4.55, his xFIP is 5.03 and his SIERA is 4.81.

The Reds shouldn’t give him away. Straily is cheap and not eligible for arbitration until 2018. That’s four more years of control.

On the other hand, he’s 27 and has limited upside. Because of the organizational depth, Straily is unlikely to be a starting pitcher for the Reds next year, maybe even all the rest of this season. It’s hard to see him contributing as more than a reliever over the duration of his time with the Reds. Maybe a swingman.

That’s not nothing. But it’s also not worth missing the opportunity to take advantage of a situation where an opposing team overvalues his ERA. If they get a good offer they should take it. As I wrote last month, Straily is an Epstein Flip candidate. Let’s see if the Reds front office can execute it.

37 thoughts on “Dan Straily trade news

  1. Steve , I have no confidence that this front office can execute this or any other move as the deadline approaches. Ineptitude rules the day as far as this group is concerned. They are clueless. Hope I am wrong. Waiting on Jokerty’s standard trade deadline mantra of ” Well, we just didn’t see anything out there that we thought would be a good fit ” . Book it , it’s coming .

    • You may well be right, but don’t we hate it when he makes a trade and doesn’t get the return we believe he should? You’d have to believe that he is intentionally dismissing good offers and then taking lesser ones, and I don’t believe that. My guess is that, as many others have posited here, we overvalue Reds players and other teams are–reasonably enough–trying to hold on to their good prospects. There is a lot of depth at pitcher, but very little of it is proven, so I’d hope WJ would demand a good return.

    • I understand that juxtaposition, but my criticism is I never hear about Walt being aggressive and making the deals happen. It’s always “we’re getting calls” or “we’re fielding offers” and never “we went out and found the player we wanted and made it happen”

  2. Steve have you ever noticed how quickly the organization moves players acquired in trade versus home grown youngsters?

  3. Strailey is holding opposing hitters to a .207 batting average! That’s insane…..and most likely not repeatable in the the future. His changeup is good but maybe having a fb that’s 3.5 miles slower then average is actually helping him. They should be trading him though…if he’s in our rotation in 2018 then somethings wrong!

    • “holding” is misleading – batting average against is just the flip side to BABIP, plus strikeouts and home runs. So you’re right it isn’t sustainable.

  4. I’m 58 and a lifelong Reds fan. I guess growing up during the Big Red Machine era spoiled me, but it seems like the Reds front office is consistantly the worst in baseball. They have bumbled around way too many times for my liking.

    • “The Reds front office is consistently the worst in baseball”

      Is there anything that supports that belief? Didn’t the Pirates have 20 straight losing seasons? Didn’t the Royals go 30 years between playoff appearances?

  5. MLBTR is now reporting Reds are not asking for 1 elite player, but 2-3 from the next tier down. Of course, it does not give a definition of elite, so I don’t know if that means no Top 100, no Top 50, and so on.

    I’m wondering if Verdugo is considered elite? If not, are the Reds trying to get him and Barnes or Calhoun? I do believe the latter two would not be considered elite. It’s hard to say, but it’s an interesting strategy if true.

    Ideally, the Reds won’t have too many holes if Winker, Peraza, and Senzel all slot in to the future line up. It would seem RF one of SS/2B and possibly C. I like Barnhart fine enough and there’s still no telling with Mes. I’m counting on Hamilton sticking around.

    Even those “holes” have some options. YRod, Schebler, Ervin, and down the line Aquino are all possible contributors from RF. Duvall may fit in there somewhere as well. Suarez may move to 2B or Blandino may recover from a forgetful year in AA.

    I’m hoping to see some sort of resolution today.

    • Verdugo is elite. Sounds like they want an Aroldis Chapman type haul (if you can call it that).

    • Ugh, I’d rather get one elite and send Bruce with a lesser prospect or reliever or something.

  6. Yes but any of those pieces you mentioned could be traded this off season or next year.

  7. Straily to me is the ultimate trade piece nothing invested in him and very unlikely to be part of the equation going forward. I doubt the return for him though I do see some value to me he is the trade you take a flyer on. That young player with a high upside some team has become discouraged with, maybe it is wishful thinking but again we have nothing invested.

    • This is EXACTLY the player the Braves have traded the past two deadlines. Sign or claim some marginal free agent or cut fodder, hope they have a bit of a turn-around and trade them for a solid prospect. It makes too much (good) sense, and therefore, I feel the Reds front office will do the wrong thing and suddenly conclude Straily is part of the rotation of the next five years. He’s bounced all around for several years, and shouldn’t be viewed as such. Sad.

  8. I have no doubt that the Reds will take what they think is the best offer.

    my personal opinion is that the Reds have done very well trading over the last five years. And yes I realize future Cy Young Award winner Ben Lively was given away for a stack of scale potato chips and an autographed picture of Richie and Scheinblum.

  9. Straily, Bruce, and Cozart to the Mariners will bring in good returns in addition of flipping pitcher Wade Miley from Seattle to Cincy & to the Orioles in three way deal. Reds should get couple good prospects from Baltimore other than Dylan Bundy.

  10. I hope it is just posturing… stupid otherwise. The front office has been stock-piling arms over the years and thats a good thing, but now is the time to cash in on that stock pile and get some guys that can be All Star position players.

  11. The Reds are, no doubt, trying to find a 3rd team to be part of the trade…. that way, the other team can give up good players – but they don’t come to the Reds.

    • Touche!

      Yeah, Jocketty and Co have made it CLEAR they don’t want upside prospects. They just want guys a few years older (to Walt that’s MLB-ready, age is only metric) that have a pulse and several of them.

      Why haven’t we designated Walt and Williams and Castellini for assignment? Can we waive them? I know NO ONE would claim them. Send them all to Dayton to try to learn how to run an organization with 100 times less revenue.

  12. Look – I’m as skeptical as the … never mind, I’m more skeptical than the average Reds’ fan about our FO – but I think the best comp for a Strailly trade was the Alfredo Simon trade. Even today, despite Suarez not quite taking the next step, I still think we won that trade.

    If we execute on Strailly like we did on Alfredo – that’s a win.

    • No one is debating that Streamer, what were debating is IF the Reds FO declares Straily off limits. Seriously, they said it, maybe it’s posturing, but given their track records of recent BAD deals and then claiming there was “no market for the guy”, we’re skeptical. If they get a solid offer like you mention and turn it down, claim Straily is a key piece of the rebuild, THAT is what worries us…wouldn’t it worry you?

      Reds Front Office guidelines:

      – avoid getting elite prospects in trades – CHECK
      – quantity over quailty, stock up on #20 to #30 Reds ranked prospects – CHECK
      – keep players around that don’t move the rebuild needle – CHECK
      – hire manager from within a shaky organization that rarely gets best from prospects, without interviewing any quality outside candidates – CHECK
      – bring in more GM’s that have track records of embarrassing moves (Towers) – CHECK

      If they get a good deal for Bruce, and given the buzz right now, they can’t claim no market for him or no deals we liked (any top 5 prospects is a good deal, any top 3 is a very good deal, most any elite prospect, run, don’t walk, run).

    • yep, noted that on another comments section. They get THE BEST BAT in the Indians system (strong system too). More salt in our wounds. They may NEVER heal. The Reds FO, they won’t be able to hide from the Chapman trade… it was negligence on their part to give Chapman away for some minor league spare parts. We can only hope Rookie Davis makes MLB as a serviceable back end starter or middle reliever. The others stink.

      • Miller has 2.5 years before he is a free agent….Chapman had 1. Huge difference.

        Miller is signed, Chapman was arbitration eligible. Huge difference.

    • Asdrubel Cabrera left the Mets lineup early in Sunday’s game. Maybe an injury, but if not, what in the world would the Reds want with him? Unless he is going elsewhere, and the Mets want Cozart?

  13. “Shortly after reports said the Mets were out Sunday morning, others indicated that New York is back in on the lefty-hitting outfielder. ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported Saturday that the Reds are not asking for “elite prospects” from the Mets, but rather for two or three good players a notch below elite status.”

  14. I have been an avid Reds fan for many years, but their organization has to be the stupidest organization of all major league teams. Instead of trading people like Chapman, Frazier and now Jay Bruce, they ought to get rid of their manager and those dumb individuals who are making all these stupid trades. I cannot remember when the Reds have been next to last place in the National League in wins. Great track records. Then to top it all off, today they made another stupid trade by trading Jay Bruce who leads the National League in RBI’s to the Mets for some no name players. Last year they traded Chapman to the Yankees and Quato to the Giants. I am sure the Cubs were happy to get Chapman from the Yankees who is one of the leaders in saves. Also, Quato is doing a great job for the Giants. The Reds need to take a good look at the Washington Nationals who were in first place of their division the last time I looked and, of course, who is their Manager? None other than Dusty Baker who was terminated last year by the stupid Reds organization. If I was Joey Votto, I would request a trade also and if the Reds didn’t comply with my request, I would refuse to play. The whole organization smells like a rotten animal. They need a complete overhaul and until they do just that and stop making all those dumb trades, they will never get out of the basement. Why don’t you get a manager like Barry Larkin, Ken Griffey, Sr. or Ken Griffey, Jr. or some other person who can bring the Reds out of the gutter and make them a team that is a contender like they were in the 1980’s. They haven’t had a team that has been this bad for years and I certainly wouldn’t wait any longer before I fired their manager as well as some of the higher ups in their organization. I wonder who they will trade next. I am sure the list will go on and on until their whole team is defunct.

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