2016 Reds

New Bruce trade rumors

Will just post them here:

 

 

 

46 thoughts on “New Bruce trade rumors

  1. Why does it feel like we are going to be taken for a ride again? I hope I am wrong but we will either get marginal prospect or low quality/high quantity type of deal.

  2. What would people think of mid-level prospect and Puig? Change of scenery maybe?

    • I’m not sure that makes a lot of sense for the Reds. I’m worried that Puig may never be what he appeared to be early in his career.

      • You are probably right, but he’s still only 25. All he has to do is learn how to lay off breaking pitches away. Seems easy when you type it, but i’m sure that’s very hard to do.

    • One of the reasons Bruce is on the block is that the Reds ultimately hope Winker can give 90% of the production at 4% of the cost.

      Puig is on the books for about 20 million over the next 2.5 years….if he returns to form then you have to pay him a boatload at the exact same time you expect to be good…an upside is he could be a great trade chip. The real downside is you may get stuck paying decent money to a player that gets worse every year and has the potential to be a horrible distraction. The Reds can miss with prospects…they can miss on guys they’re paying for whom they’re paying retail.

      • Hmmmm…..wonder who that was around here that predicted Wily Mo Puig was on the way? Lol

      • I couldn’t agree more. Although Puig may be an appealing trade piece to some teams, he just doesn’t fit what the Reds currently need/are trying to do.

  3. Reds wont deal with NL Central and Dodgers wont deal with NL West…. Indians would make sense to land a big name like Puig.

  4. When was WJ “taken”? He may have picked a bad time to trade Chapman, and Fraser, but he wasn’t “taken”.

    In fact, his track record with the Reds has been very good on trades.

    • What about the track record of getting worse and worse as an organization on Walt’s watch. The Cardinals weremail smart for firing Walt. The Reds were dumb for hiring Walt. Of course, you can disagree. Walt will never make anyone forget Bob How’s am.

  5. I was all for trading jay for Wheeler, so I’m just going to keep my mouth shut.

  6. I mentioned Puig the other day but I also mentioned him last year and he only seems to get worse with LA. The Reds could be gambling that he just needs a change of scenery. The ball goes nowhere in Dodger Stadium at night and he likes the drive the ball to RF. That might work well in GABP? Its a gamble so it some random 20 year old AA #35 prospect or whatever

    • I can’t type for squat

      likes to drive the ball to RF

      Its a gamble but so is some random 20 yr old AA prospect

    • If the #35 AA prospect doesn’t pan out you’re not financially impaired. There’s limited risk. If Puig doesn’t pan out he’s around 10% of your payroll and you can’t do anything else.

  7. I definitely hope we don’t get Puig. Overhyped and a huge cancer to a clubhouse it seems.

  8. According to Reds Informer (https://www.instagram.com/reds_informer/), “The Seattle Mariners are now reportedly interested in Zack Cozart as well as Jay Bruce. According to a fellow Instagram source the Reds would be willing to complete the deal if Ketel Marte and Tyler O’Neil were involved.” Looks like O’Neill (RF) could be really good power hitter if he keeps progressing with patience at plate. Marte (SS) seems mediocre on paper but I might just be missing something and he is really young.

    The same page says that the Reds are scouting Mets’ Kevin Plewecki(?) and Mets are interested in Bruce. Other than being young ML catcher, don’t know much about him. Are Reds once again looking for prospects close to majors rather than most talented? Hope not!

    Anybody know more about these guys and if it sounds like a good return for Bruce/Cozart? I don’t know how accurate the source is but the info seems to stack up with some info like in this article?

    Fingers Crossed for Reds not to get bad end of this possible trade(s)!

    • O’Neill is a top 100 prospect from MLB.com (73-ish?) and the Mets catcher was a top 100 guy last year based on Baseball – Reference. Don’t know about Marte though.

    • Overall I like O’Neill and think he’d be fine as a centerpiece to a Bruce deal. I would want another, lower tier (in the 10-20 org. range) just for Bruce though.

      Marte is intriguing because he’s young and he did hit well in 2015 in 247 PA (112 wRC+, 1.7 WAR). He’ll turn 23 in October but hasn’t really replicated his first season, and the numbers, especially the BB%, has taken a step back (9.7% in ’15 and 3.7% in ’16). He’s said to bring along the ability to hit for average, score runs, and steal some bases. (I don’t know how scoring runs is a tangible ability as it primarily relies on the people behind you). In the same write up (Fangraphs) it also says that he doesn’t carry a great percentage in swiping bags either. So, while he has speed, he hasn’t refined the art of stealing bases yet. He does hit a lot of ground balls, so that’s good for a speedy youngster. He really doesn’t have much power to speak of, but I think there’s more there than Peraza is expected to show.

      On defense, he’s primarily played SS, but has also seen time at 2B and CF (who else does that remind you of?) Ultimately he seems a lot like Peraza, just slightly younger but with more big league experience. The Reds seem to have a lot of light bat speedsters with good gloves already in the fold. But Marte remains intriguing nonetheless.

      All in all, I’d say O’Neill and Marte would be a solid start, and a few supplemental pieces added in could make this a nice trade.

    • Reds get: Alex Verdugo, Tyler O’Neil, Ketel Marte, Grant Holmes, Nick Neidert

      Dodgers get: Jay Bruce, Tony Cingrani

      Mariners get: Zack Cozart, Yasiel Puig

      • I am not familiar with those guys that that the Reds would get in that trade. Do you have any info on them. Thanks.

        • 2 dodgers prospects (Verdugo and Holmes), 2 mariners prospects (O’Neil and Neidert) and Mariners current shortstop in the majors. Can find more info on MLB top prospects grouped by organization.

  9. Getting Puig outta LA may be the best thing for him.

    Didn’t the guy hit like .340 one year? And 25?

    Yes, please.

    • The big year he had at the plate I don’t have fingers and toes to count how many times he threw to the wrong base intentionally airmailed over the cut off guy. I am not talking about the occasional error a ball player will make I am talking he either doesn’t know the game. I doubt that coming out of the Cuban baseball factory it was more like I am special I don’t have to do it correct mode.

  10. The fact it is supposed to be 3 teams involved tells me Puig is not the piece coming to the Reds if he is the return I would much rather have the ball player (Bruce) instead of the headache (Puig)

  11. Jay Bruce is one of the better Reds of the last decade. He is a Reds Hall of Famer and in the top 7 all time in HR for the team, not to mention a former top 10 overall pick. He is enjoying his best year of his career. He has 5 HR 8 runs and 13 RBi in the last week. He has single handedly carried the Reds offense at times and has clearly accounted for 5-6 wins this year the team would not have won if average JOE were in RF. His power numbers are among the best in all of baseball…..yet, he has a WAR barely above a replacement player and far below Billy Hamilton. That is a farce and a joke and renders the metric WAR completely useless. Joey Votto hasn’t been great on defense either but to suggest that Bruce and Votto’s defense undermines their contributions to winning games is preposterous. Lets see how bad this team is when Bruce is gone. He is the best power hitter in the NL right now.Yet Billy Hamilton has a higher WAR and the Reds FO is not seeking a top tier prospect for him? This is Frazier part 2 and another example of how the Reds are butchering the transition from the winning years of 2010-2013 to who knows when.

    • I don’t understand the WAR well enough to discuss the merits the only thing that I can point out is for the real strong year Bruce is having at the plate his defense is as bad as it has been in his career. I am not locked in on trading Bruce because of the option. The chance of injury or a prolonged slump combined with the extra half year of control probably makes Bruce his most appealing right now but it is not do or die. I know that Cozart doesn’t have the value but to me trading him is a bigger concern than Bruce because of the option!

    • There little doubt WAR heavily overvalues defense. There is a good point to be made that Bruce gets to less balls because Hamilton gets to more balls, which makes Bruce D metrics look worse on due to something out of his control. He is slowing down just a tick in the field, not sure why…but he isn’t some stone-handed plodder out there (nothing like Dunn).

      • I will have to do some research to see if this is accounted for – or not – in current defensive metrics. I have posted on here multiple times this idea of defensive range redundancy and the diminishing returns of focusing TOO much on defensive prowess (although there is more to defense than range, I understand). It is possible that B-Ham is robbing Bruce of some of his defensive value. There is no redundancy to slugging or OBP.

        Another culprit of this is Phillips (** now prepare for heavily anecdotal, non-fact based observation). I have noticed over the years that BP is tremendous (and still is, IMO) at going back into shallow RF.

      • I think you are exactly right about Bruce. Metrics are only as good as the assumptions behind them. Bruce is a great player and Reds fans will miss him for years if he is traded. I have followed the Reds for years and the best right fielders during my lifetime have been Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey, Sr., Ken Griffey, Jr., and Jay Bruce. Paul O’Neill flourished with the Yankees but was not that great as a Red. Pete Rose did not play right field long enough to be considered in this list. Reds fans will miss Bruce. He is a great player in my opinion.

    • and you do trade Bruce now…his trade value will NEVER, EVER be higher than right now and we lucked out, don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.

      Now, if you think he’ll be the good Bruce of most of 2016 so far for the next 5 years, sure, keep him and pay him the 5 yr – $120 million he’ll try to get. I don’t buy it, too many mediocre (bad really) years during his prime, injury or not, scares me from any contract beyond 3 years of big dollars.

      I do get that losing your productive hitters is not ideal for rebuilding, but I don’t think many Reds fans buy this version of Bruce for the next 5 years. Do you really think it would be a good value to sign him for 5 years at the rate he’ll seek? I sure don’t, no matter that he FINALLY got professional and fixed his pull-happy tendencies enough to be a REAL hitter in 2016. It only took several years of shifts and a potential contract year to motivate him…sad.

      • Michael, are you going to go to the ceremony when Bruce is inducted into the Reds HOF? He will be inducted someday and you can tell everyone there how mediocre and bad really he was as a Red.
        You will also be frustrated with how hard it will be to replace his production. Plus, he is a good person in the clubhouse.
        I understand the money part, but the rest of your post about Bruce is just wrong.

  12. and now the Yankees get two top 5 prospects for Miller. Two top relievers and the Yankees got their whole farm system upgraded 10 spots +. The Reds trade Chapman at the worst time and the farm system goes sideways. I sure hope someone in the front office is making fun of Jocketty and Castellini and making sure they do it just loud enough to be heard behind a closed door or from the water fountain in the hallway.

    Frazier…the freaking Yankees got the top bat in the Indians system AND a good pitcher. Let that sink in…while the Reds got #8 prospect in a much weaker Yankees system.

    Could you imagine getting Frazier for Chapman? It was certainly possible, even if less control…maybe the Reds would have to add a prospect (love to get rid of Travieso).

    Sigh. I hope no more relievers get traded, it just raises my blood pressure 10 points each time.

    • Why didn’t the Indians trade Frazier for Chapman last week? I think you’re dramatically underestimating the value of Miller being signed for the next 2 seasons.

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