2016 Reds

Adam Duvall and Chasing History

Adam Duvall and George Foster have at least one thing in common: through their first 71 games to start a season they have both hit 20 home runs. George Foster’s 20 homers to start a season came in 1977 when he eventually set the Reds single season home run record. Duvall’s home run happy start to the season is currently happening right before our eyes. He has jacked 20 home runs in 71 games and needs 5 more before the midsummer classic to tie Foster through 84 games. That’s 5 more home runs in 13 games.

Duvall is currently projected to hit right around 45 home runs. He has hit 20 home runs in 71 games which averages out to .28 home runs per game. If you multiply the .28 home runs per game by his remaining number of games (91) you get 25. Add that to his current home run total and you get right around 45 home runs to end the year.

What’s remarkable about Duvall’s 20 home runs is the pace at which they have come. Through the first 26 games of the regular season he only hit 2 home runs. The 45 games since his slow start, Duvall has hit a whopping 18. That’s roughly .4 home runs a game. Another interesting note is that through the first 71 games of their 20 home run seasons, Foster had a noticeable 53 more plate appearances than Duvall.

Below is the stat breakdown of Duvall and Foster’s first 71 games:

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No one is suggesting that Duvall is going to continue to hit at his torrid .4 home run per game pace, but I don’t think it’s out of the question to think that Duvall has another 20 to 25 home runs in him this season, especially given his slow start to the season, increased plate appearances in the second half, and the fact that he plays in a home run friendly ballpark.

In the dog days of a losing baseball season, we fans look for little nuances to keep us entertained and occupied until the uniforms are hung up and the gloves are stored away in October. The Cincinnati Reds single season home run record is a pretty substantial mark. If Duvall can continue to consistently hit home runs throughout the second half of the season and keep pace with Foster, it should make for a pretty entertaining story line to keep up with as the season winds down.

6 thoughts on “Adam Duvall and Chasing History

  1. When traded to the Reds from the Giants Foster had the reputation of not being able to hit a curve ball. Once he developed a swing for the curve he was astronomical home run hitter.

  2. Please take a little time to vote Duvall into the All-Star game!

    (While you’re at it, throw some votes Buster Posey’s way…)

  3. George not only hit a lot of home runs in 1977, hit some homers that went a long way. He hit more than a few into the upper deck (red seats) of old Riverfront Stadium. He had a tremendous upper body musculature, and was wasp-waisted for his size (28 inch waist or something like that). He could really torque his body and put a charge into the ball.

    Duvall is a fairly strong guy, and has really distinguished himself (to me) as becoming a pretty good outfielder. He really has worked at it. If Duvall bats 0.280 and hits 35 Hr, I’d be thrilled. I’m just afraid we’ll see some regression as the pitching pattern to him changes.

  4. If Duvall was moved up in the lineup, corresponding to dropping Phillips, he’d probably net another homer or two for the rest of the year!

  5. George hit a homer at my first game at Riverfront (agains the astros I think).

    Then met George face-to-face at Goodyear a couple of years ago while he was fundraising for his foundation via autographs (got one as a fathers day gift for my dad) and it was great that we got to the ballyard early. Was able to chat a bit, he joked with my sons (4 and a half then) and added to the fun of our first ST trip to AZ.

    On our way back by him after buying t-shirts and foam #1 fingers, he caught sight of us and said, there’s my guy’s! We’re number one! Fun times all-around, kids loved it.

    Duvall has had a great season. Maybe he turns into a bit of late bloomer ala the Toddfather, but even if he coos off and/or loses the starting job down the road, he could still be a quality bench bat through his arb years.

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