Adam Duvall and George Foster have at least one thing in common: through their first 71 games to start a season they have both hit 20 home runs. George Foster’s 20 homers to start a season came in 1977 when he eventually set the Reds single season home run record. Duvall’s home run happy start to the season is currently happening right before our eyes. He has jacked 20 home runs in 71 games and needs 5 more before the midsummer classic to tie Foster through 84 games. That’s 5 more home runs in 13 games.
Duvall is currently projected to hit right around 45 home runs. He has hit 20 home runs in 71 games which averages out to .28 home runs per game. If you multiply the .28 home runs per game by his remaining number of games (91) you get 25. Add that to his current home run total and you get right around 45 home runs to end the year.
What’s remarkable about Duvall’s 20 home runs is the pace at which they have come. Through the first 26 games of the regular season he only hit 2 home runs. The 45 games since his slow start, Duvall has hit a whopping 18. That’s roughly .4 home runs a game. Another interesting note is that through the first 71 games of their 20 home run seasons, Foster had a noticeable 53 more plate appearances than Duvall.
Below is the stat breakdown of Duvall and Foster’s first 71 games:
No one is suggesting that Duvall is going to continue to hit at his torrid .4 home run per game pace, but I don’t think it’s out of the question to think that Duvall has another 20 to 25 home runs in him this season, especially given his slow start to the season, increased plate appearances in the second half, and the fact that he plays in a home run friendly ballpark.
In the dog days of a losing baseball season, we fans look for little nuances to keep us entertained and occupied until the uniforms are hung up and the gloves are stored away in October. The Cincinnati Reds single season home run record is a pretty substantial mark. If Duvall can continue to consistently hit home runs throughout the second half of the season and keep pace with Foster, it should make for a pretty entertaining story line to keep up with as the season winds down.