Titanic Struggle Recap

Reds Lose, but the Story’s Still a Good Reed

Reds 4
Astros 5 (11 innings)
Box Score | Win Probability

The Good

So, there’s this kid named Cody Reed. You may have heard of him. He debuted for the Reds today. He did allow a couple of homers and thus 4 runs, but otherwise, he was great. 7 innings, 3 walks, and 9 (!) strikeouts. I said on Twitter that this was almost exactly the debut I’d have predicted from Reed, and it’s true.

Adam Duvall homered to tie the game in the ninth. I’ve been very clear about my Duvall skepticism, but there is no doubt that he can hit the ball a long way and it’s saved the Reds tonight.

Billy Hamilton made the most amazing catch in right-center. Transcendent. And, really, the Reds defense was pretty sparkling in general.

Zack Cozart has a homer and Eugenio Suarez had a couple of hits.

Whether he took the loss or not, Josh Smith answered the bell. 3.1 innings of relief is legit.

The Bad

The Reds did not win the baseball game.

Not So Random Thoughts

I can’t find much to complain about with this game. Yes, the Reds lost, but this year that doesn’t matter and a lot of good things happened and so there it is.

Adam Duvall has the lowest OBP ever for a player with a SLG over .600. He is having on of the weirdest good seasons I have ever seen.

I don’t know about you, but I’m excited for the next time Cody Reed pitches.

46 thoughts on “Reds Lose, but the Story’s Still a Good Reed

  1. Not sure why he ran Smith out there for one more inning. The Astros announcers were impressed with the amount of ground Hamilton covered on that catch. Amazing. Love the stuff Reed showed today. His next start will be better without the jitters. Welcome to the big league kid!

  2. This has definitely been an entertaining and interesting road trip so far! Reed debuts, 3 extra inning games, 3 straight lefties start for the Reds all from Cueto trade in a row, goodbye to Turner Field, several instances of 5-man infield and an American League road series to boot.

  3. Was excited to see Reeds and he didn’t disappoint. Scary, he’ll only get better. Hamilton made a catch that only the best ever could have made. He’s one of them in center. This team could have let this one get away twice, especially with Kuechel pitching, but they showed grit.

  4. Great effort by the Reds tonight. Awesome job by Reed, can’t wait to see him get more experience under his belt. If he can add a good change-up, wow he is going to be awesome! I suppose it’s easy to be an arm chair manager but even with a taxed bullpen you have to have someone warmed up and ready go. Can’t put the blame on Smith, Price hung him out there to dry.

    • I didn’t see Smith’s extended use today as being ‘hung out to dry’. Smith started every game at AAA this season and averaged 5+ inning per game. His role in the bullpen is to handle extended outings and he did just that. Smith has pitched very well at the majoe league level this season and he struggled today, but pitched well enough to actually lower his ERA from 3.12 to 3.00. After Duvall’s heroics in the 9th inning, the Reds simply couldn’t generate any offense in extra innings. If they had, Smith probably exits with a W rather than a L today.

      • Being an interleague home road game for the Reds may have played a big role in how Price handled the pen. With the pitcher not batting, he led with his long man in a tie game instead of burning off all his short and middlemen an inning (or two) at a time while holding off his long man in case it got really crazy like the one game in Atlanta earlier in the week. If the Reds had gotten a lead, it appeared he planned to bring in Cingrani to go for the close but otherwise he was going to stick with Smith until he thought his tank was empty.

  5. The Old Cossack is trying very hard to keep an even keel regarding Adam Duvall’s season and his prospects going forward. It’s getting very hard, very very hard.

    I know he has a BB% AVG (slightly above league average)
    .279 => BAbip
    0.49 => GB/FB (more than 50% better than league average)
    21.3% => HR/FB% (almost 3X league average)
    15.3% => XBH% (double league average)
    62% => X/H% (almost double league average)
    .339 => ISO (double league average)

    Duvall now leads the NL in HR @ 20
    Duvall now leads the NL in XBH @ 38

    If I’m designing a flawed #5 hole hitter, someone who will not start rallies or continue rallies, but someone who will clear the bases when the #3 & #4 hole hitters don’t, Adam Duvall is my prototype. Top that off with GG caliber LF defense (and I swear Duvall’s defense gets better every game) and I would go to war with one such hitter in the lineup.

    Duvall hits the ball in the air, religiously, and when he does, it goes a long way. Duvall drives the ball to the wall, through the wall and over the wall, and he doesn’t provide the OF much time to get to the ball. Even his fly ball outs have the OF heading back to the wall. Duvall’s power numbers are other-worldly. He’s no longer a secret to the league. Fans and broadcasters are hip to his tricks, not to mention the scouts and coaches, but yet, Duvall continues to crush the ball against everyone.

    Votto’s detractors complain that Votto takes too many pitches that are very hittable. Duvall doesn’t believe in taking such pitches and drives those pitches to the wall. I wouldn’t want a lineup filled with such hitters, but he fits nicely within the middle of a lineup.

    Can Duvall continue his onslaught against the league? Dang if I know. Jason made a strong argument that Duvall could not continue with his onsluaght against the league. I’m inclined to ride this wave up the beach as far as it takes us and if it turns out to be a tsunami, well hang ten!

    • Now that wasn’t how it was typed…

      I know he has a BB% AVG (slightly above league average)
      .279 => BAbip
      0.49 => GB/FB (more than 50% better than league average)
      21.3% => HR/FB% (almost 3X league average)
      15.3% => XBH% (double league average)
      62% => X/H% (almost double league average)
      .339 => ISO (double league average)

      • Oh well, I guess I’m running into some html conflict or such.

        Duvall doesn’t walk and strikes out a lot. His AVG is slightly above league average.

      • I haven’t been charting Duvall’s ABs and haven’t checked any of the sites that do; but, I have been trying to pay particular attention to them as to pitch and count progression.

        So what I will call my focused eye test is that Duvall is seeing more pitches than earlier in the year. From 0/2 and 1/2 counts he is beginning to show an ability to get back to 2/2 and even full counts when he is thrown bait pitches. A number of his K’s lately have come when he chased high fastballs off of 2/2 or 3/2 counts. I see this as progress; I am holding out the hope that eventually he will be able to lay off the high fastballs at a better rate since earlier in the year he was generally toast in short order when he went down 0/2 or 1/2 and is now able to get back into counts with regularity.

        For those who missed it, his HR today was off a 2/2 count on the 6th pitch of the AB reported by MLB Gameday to have been a slider. In other ABs, he K’d swinging on a 3/2 and grounded out on a 2/2 pitch but also made 2 outs first pitch swinging.

    • Well, if it doesn’t continue, we’re nearing the half-way point in the season. Most on here would have been happy with his production as it stands for a full season (assuming a platoon with Schebler ). Guy finally gets a chance to play full time and is tearing it up. Hats off.

    • I’m on the Duvall bandwagon, too. He almost has to cool down, but he’s not a one-dimensional player. He also plays hard, and is part of what appears to be a growing bit of excitement around the Reds. They’re getting fun to watch.

      • They are getting fun to watch. Along with that aspect comes the flickering of expectations for success and disappointment whe they don’t succeed, but that’s a good thing. I know whwn Votto dropped that sinking line drive into center field in the 9th, I turned to Mrs. Cossack and told her that if Phillips doesn’t GIDP, the Reds have a chance with Bruce and Duvall coming up. After Phillips struck out, Mrs. Cossack asked if that was a good thing and I told her it was, because they still had a chance with Votto on base. When the Duvall’s bat connected with the ball, the Old Cossack launched himself from the Old Recliner (no small feat!). Every time Smith worked out of trouble, we cheered. At the beginning of the season, watching the games was more of a mental exercise. Now, we can actually start enjoying the games again.

  6. Loving the growth of a couple of players! Certainly Duvall is unexpected yet for me Billy hamilton’s growth this year is key. He is a defensive wonder and if he can become a legitimate major league hitter, then my friends we have a star. Can’t wait to see all of the young arms develop further and Reed might just be THE next pitching stud for the Reds. When will Winker come to town and share his glory with us? We are going through the transition, yet there are flashes of excitement with many of the young players. Can’t wait to cheer for the new guys and develop that love for each of them. Now to begin with the new nicknames for the boys.

    • Well to start with, full credit to Dan above. Cody Reed = Code Red. Or just to provide a slightly different option, Codey Red. Hamilton can’t really be anything other than Billy the Kid, can he?

  7. Just a heads up on early results from the Reds top 2 draftees…

    Yesterday:
    Taylor Tramell was 2-5 w/ 1 SO
    Nick Senzel was 2-3 w/ 1 SB & 1 SF

    Today (thru 5 innings):
    Taylor Tramell is was 1-3
    Nick Senzel was 0-2 w/ 2 BB

  8. I don’t know what I expect from the LF but I am still concerned about Duvall but he is fun to watch until the answer comes along. That is a pleasant thought a left fielder to come along to send Duvall’s power and his unexpected glove to the bench. I think if that were to happen he would still be a great option, a power bat off the bench that you don’t give up defense or have to use 2 players in a switch. Hamilton in the .265 to .280 average at the end of the season may be too much to hope for but his approach does look a lot better to me. Iglesias and Lorenzen on rehab assignments and Reed was impressive for his debut. I have to shake myself from getting carried away but being respectable in 17 and contenders in 18 too optimistic? Trade Bruce for a top 100 prospect? A top 50? or extend him?

    • Maybe as impressive as anything else Reed did was that both times after getting tagged with (massive) two run HRs before recording an out in the inning, he came back to finish the innings with no more runs allowed; and in fact, allowed no following batters in the inning to even reach base. Compare that to the parade of meltdowns and huge crooked number innings we’ve seen from so many Reds pitchers this year.

      • That is an excellent catch! Reed looks to have enough grit to pass out to the whole team.

  9. It’s great how you’re talking up all these new, fresh, up and coming stars guys. But enjoy it. Once that service time clock starts ticking, 5 years will go by before you know it. With MLB’s flawed economics, for most of these guys, if they have any success at all here in the bigs they’ll be gone. The Reds simply cannot or will not pay the salaries comparable Major League stars are getting these days, and I don’t think the vaults will ever be opened again as they were with a couple of the current Reds.

    • You’re right, of course. But give us a few years, Gary, before we have to dwell on such sad thoughts.

    • The system is what it is, but is can be managed. It’s all about roster management and the Reds haave been pitiful at roster management. If the Reds do not get better, then history with certainly repeat itself. We’ll find out in a year or two if the Reds have actually learned from their mistakes or are destined to just repeat their mistakes. The upcoming international signing period should provide some insight for the future and it’s not looking good from early reports.

  10. The MiLB.com recap of the Louisville Bats Saturday game says that Stephen Johnson is the expected Sunday starter for the Bats. If this is correct, I believe Robert Stephenson has been skipped on this turn of the rotation. I haven’t read anything about him being hurt or tired etc or being given a rest just to catch his breath. I wonder…..

    • Yeah, you are correct, on turn he would have started on the 17th when Daniel Wright started. They are showing him as the scheduled starter for Tuesday though. I hadn’t heard anything about an issue with him either. Maybe it was just that they were still doing their super 2 math and held him back because he was still in consideration for the start Sat against Houston.

      I’m more concerned with Jesse Winker, who the Bat’s placed on the DL yesterday. He hasn’t played since 6/12 with a sore wrist that they did an MRI on and claimed he was just day to day.

      • Yes on Winker. The talk yesterday on radio and TV was that he would be making his way up to Cincy sometime this week for Dr. Kremchek to have an in person look at the wrist. It seemed indefinite when the exam would take place. I found the seeming lack of urgency a bit unsettling.

        • It’s also troubling since it is the same wrist (the right one) he injured in the car accident in 2014.

  11. Lorenzen pitched the 9th inning Saturday in Louisville’s 4-1 loss to Pawtucket. He allowed a hit and recorded a K. From what I previously read, he will pitch on Sunday to establish his back to back day creds then assuming all is well, he will report back to the Reds for activation.

  12. Brandon Philips hitting in the 3rd slot is killing the offensive, line-up shall be re-shuffled.

  13. I figured Jason would have preferred that Duvall draw a walk in that PA to his hitting a homer. It would have indicated that he could continue to hit homers in the future.

    • +1 LoL. yeah it feels like that is where it is heading right? I can’t get over the love of the walk as the metric to rule all other measurements.

      • Not that it matters, because people tend to think what they will think….but not one single person who is an advocate for a solid plate approach (or walking if you prefer) would have preferred a walk to the HR. I realize there is a certain amount of tongue in cheek, but it’s ridiculous to truly believe that would be the case.

        Advocates of plate discipline are such because walks are better than outs. Also because getting on base is directly tied to scoring runs. We like runs because scoring more runs than the other team is how you win ball games. Not swinging at pitches outside of the zone is statistically better than swinging at them because you make more outs than you would if you swing at balls in the zone.

        Most people who are advocates for OBP also like OPS, OPS+, wRC+ and those all take slugging as well as getting on base into consideration. It’s never been an either/or between HRs or hits and walks.

        • Two interesting links to fuel your fire. My fear when people harp on OBP all the time is that they forget there are many other statistics that correlate *very, very well* to scoring runs, and winning games. A commonly posited argument is that OBP correlates the best (of the simple stats). The first link would indirectly suggest a team full of Adam Duvalls would outscore a team full of his equivalent in OBP. The second link refutes OBP’s dominance outright. It discusses OPS mainly, but its 2nd figure shows SLG and OBP very close in run correlation.

          http://www.bigthreesports.com/2015-runs-scored-correlations/
          http://www.hardballtimes.com/ops-for-the-masses/

      • Yeah. Why would anyone care about things that correlate with “sustainable”success? After all, no one has ever hit a bunch of home runs and then been figured out.

    • Two interesting links to fuel your fire. My fear when people harp on OBP all the time is that they forget there are many other statistics that correlate *very, very well* to scoring runs, and winning games. A commonly posited argument is that OBP correlates the best (of the simple stats). The first link would indirectly suggest a team full of Adam Duvalls would outscore a team full of his equivalent in OBP. The second link refutes OBP’s dominance outright. It discusses OPS mainly, but its 2nd figure shows SLG and OBP very close in run correlation.

      http://www.bigthreesports.com/2015-runs-scored-correlations/
      http://www.hardballtimes.com/ops-for-the-masses/

  14. After Saturday’s game, Enquirer beat writer Zach Buchanan (@zachENQ) tweeted the following about Alfredo Simon’s situation:

    “Alfredo Simon said his shoulder is locked up. Has received medication, but feels no improvement”.
    and
    “The Reds hope it doesn’t require a DL stint, otherwise he’d be there. Simon didn’t sound optimistic”.

    So it would appear that an exit strategy for Simon is taking a shape. First a trip to the 15 day DL and then at some point a transfer to the 60 day DL????

    • They’re out the $2 mil for him anyway so let’s just get him off the 25 man active roster in whatever way possible.

  15. I would prefer a DFA for Simon but anything that will keep him off the mound is good for Reds. It was enjoyable watching Reed pitch today, reminded me of Tom Browning, get the ball and pitch. Defense was great behind him not only Hamilton although that catch was amazing, that slow footed defensive metric challenged Bruce made two pretty good catches as well.

    • I think Lorenzen believes he will be at MLB this week, assuming all goes well with his back to back appearance Sunday; and, he feels OK Monday, I haven’t seen anything that definite said by the Reds.

      Iggy has been at AA while Lorenzen has been with AAA. I’d guess he will move on up the food chain to AAA when Lorenzen moves on up to MLB, then take it from there.

  16. For a last place team, the Reds are exciting lately and fun to watch. Reed’s debut was impressive, Hamilton’s catch, Bruce had two nice catches and Duvall’s 9th inning blast made me sit up and cheer. 15 games below .500 is one tall mountain but at least the Reds aren’t boring anymore.

    • Yeah, gotta be folks in the front office who are very relieved that the double digit losing streak happened and with its timing. Otherwise they’d be under real pressure to at least hold their hand and maybe even to become buyers in search for a wild card run.

      • I think they’ve shown a fair amount of discipline and wouldn’t succumb to fan pressure. I think they’ve finally realized that fans are stupid and pleasing them is a one way road to nowhere.

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