Game Thread

Reds at Braves – June 14, 2016

Cincinnati+Reds+v+Atlanta+Braves+U7VBkI4nKSel

The Cincinnati Reds (25-39) have won 8 of their last 11 games. They will look to keep up their winning ways tonight at 7:10 against the Atlanta Braves (18-45). The Reds won a wild game in Atlanta last night 9-8, a game where they blew three separate leads. Tonight, we will see a great starting pitching matchup of two highly talented young pitchers.

Starting Pitchers

FinneganTeheran

Brandon Finnegan is coming off his best start of 2016 (according to FIP), which came against the mighty Cardinals lineup: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 7 K, 1.54 FIP. The most impressive aspect of his last start was that he only walked one batter in seven innings. Finnegan has really struggled with walks this season, as he has walked 35 batters in 76.1 innings.

It will also be interesting to see if Finnegan will get back to striking out more batters. He struck out 7 batters in his last start, but has been below average this season in K/9. The Braves hitters surprisingly only have a 20.6 K%, which is the 17th highest in baseball. Finnegan was projected by ZiPS to put up 8.16 K/9 after posting a 8.44 K/9 rate last season.

Tonight will be Finnegan’s first career appearance against the Braves.


Julio Teheran currently has the 19th best ERA in the MLB at 2.85. However, his FIP and xFIP show that he is been pretty lucky, and more of an average pitcher than a great one. Teheran has nice strikeout and walk rates, but he has been subject to the long ball. He has already allowed 12 home runs through his first 13 starts.

Teheran was signed by the Braves as an amateur free agent in 2007 out of Columbia. He was only 16 years old at the time. He made his way through the minors fairly quickly, and made his debut in 2011. In 2011, Teheran was ranked as the #5 prospect in all of baseball. He would only make 7 appearances with the Braves between 2011-12, but he burst onto the scene in 2013. That season, Teheran posted a 3.20 ERA/3.69 FIP in 30 starts. The Braves smartly signed Teheran to a 6-year, $32.4 million extension.

Teheran had another nice year following his contract extension, as he posted a 2.89 ERA/3.49 FIP in 33 starts in 2014. He struggled some last season, posting a 4.04 ERA/4.40 FIP in 33 starts. He is currently a hot trade rumor, as the Red Sox have expressed interest. Teheran would however require a big haul in return with his team friendly contract, and rightfully so.

Teheran has dominated the Reds in four career starts. He has a 1.78 ERA over 25.1 IP, and has struck out 17 batters, while walking just 6. The Reds actually scored 5 runs off him in his first start against them in 2013. Teheran has not allowed a run against the Reds in his last 3 starts (20.0 IP, 0 R, 10 H, 4 BB, 14 K).

Starting Lineups

Reds Braves
1. Zack Cozart (SS)
2. Joey Votto (1B)
3. Brandon Phillips (2B)
4. Jay Bruce (RF)
5. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
6. Kyle Waldrop (LF)
7. Tyler Holt (CF)
8. Tucker Barnhart (C)
9. Brandon Finnegan (P)
1. Mallex Smith (CF)
2. Chase d’Arnaud (SS)
3. Freddie Freeman (1B)
4. Jeff Francoeur (LF)
5. Nick Markakis (RF)
6. Adonis Garcia (3B)
7. Tyler Flowers (C)
8. Erick Aybar (SS)
9. Jace Peterson (2B)
10. Julio Teheran (P)

Adam Duvall hit his 18th home run last night, but he will get the night off against a tough RHP. Kyle Waldrop will make his first MLB start tonight. Waldrop is 3 for 6 this season. Joey Votto reached base four times last night, and now has a 14 game on-base streak. Votto is hitting .340/.468/.700 during the streak. Votto’s OPS is over .800 for the first time this season at .805. Votto had a .697 OPS back on May 29th.

Jeff Francoeur gets the start tonight for the Braves. Francoeur has hit .329/.375/.452/ with 2 HR and 123 wRC+ in 80 PA against LHP this season.

Peraza and Hoover recalled

Peraza.KE

It’s already been a busy day so far for the Reds, as Jose Peraza (the Reds current #5 prospect on MLB Pipeline) and J.J. Hoover were recalled. Daniel Wright was sent down to AAA, and Jordan Pacheco was placed on the DL (retroactive to 6/3). Pacheco will begin a rehab stint with the Bats right away

Peraza is hitting .274/.318/.354 with 9 SB, and a 91 wRC+ for the AAA-Louisville Bats. He went 3 for 12 on his short stint with the MLB club earlier this year. You would imagine that he will see some time in CF with Billy Hamilton currently on the DL. The Reds certainly want Peraza to play regularly.

J.J. Hoover had a 3.38 ERA/3.56 FIP in 13.1 IP with the AAA-Louisville Bats. Hoover allowed 4 ER in one game, and 1 ER in another game. He didn’t allow a run in his other 9 appearances. Hoover’s last 3 appearances have been very good: 3.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K.

The big question is what Daniel Wright being sent down means to the Reds rotation. Wright took over Alfredo Simon‘s spot in the rotation yesterday, and this simply could just mean that Simon will be taking it back. Or, it could mean that Cody Reed will be called up to take the spot. Reed pitched last night for Louisville. Stay tuned.

Conclusion

The Reds are on a nice roll of late. The Reds are tied for second with the most runs scored in the MLB in June with 70. Reds hitters are hitting .280/.340/.494 this month. The Reds will be facing their toughest test of the series in Julio Tehrean, a guy who has dominated them in the past. It will be interesting to see if they can keep it up. Go Reds!

76 thoughts on “Reds at Braves – June 14, 2016

  1. It sort of snuck up on us, but current wRC+ has Votto (112) ahead of Cozart (109) for the first time this season.

    Now is an important time for Zack. He started hot, and hasn’t been all that good lately. If he can maintain around the 100-105 wRC+ level, he’s still got a bunch of value with that glove. If he reverts back to a sub-90 wRC+ guy, he doesn’t have much value.

  2. What happened to Wright was almost predictable. He was brought up in almost desparation, but really needs more work in the high minors.
    Depending on what Hoover/ and or Simon does in the next few days in relief, I would almost wager that Simon gets DFA’d on Saturday to make room on the 40 man for Cody Reed.
    Or Simon starts on Sunday and all us commenting wags are wrong again. 🙂

    • I heard Price talking on the radio about Simon’s removal from the rotation. I don’t think he goes back in unless Price is given no other options at all.

      Keyvius Sampson (remember him) is my choice for the likely suspect if they aren’t ready to bring up Reed. Sampson has been pitching well as a starter in Louisville since the last time he was sent down. He is on the 40 man and could be brought up for a one off start. He last pitched on Sunday; so, they’d just have to hold him back one day.

  3. A couple of thoughts before we get started with tonight’s Titanic Struggle….

    1. I would miss Marty if he retired, but I would get over it. I love Marty and been listening to him since I can remember, Prob started listening to him and Joe around the age of 4 or 5 with my dad. Joe was my favorite, but lately Marty has become even more critical than I am. lol

    2. I still think Cody Reed will be the “jewel” of the Cueto trade, but I also think Finnegan is getting better with every start. Lamb will have a nice, long career as a LOOGUY boucing from team to team like Aurthur Rhodes.

    3. I could see Finnegan throwing 8 innings, of 4 hit, 0 run, 7K baseball tonight.

    4. I can’t get Iggy going to the bullpen off my mind. It really bothers me. Other than JV, that’s my guy. I just think he could be an All Star Starter one day just like Cueto. I pray his shoulder gains strength.

    5. If Brandon just wouldn’t swing at so many bad pitches he would be the best all around 2nd baseman in the NL.

    • Lamb does not have the stuff of Arthur Rhodes, who was nasty and had many good seasons. Lamb is much more like Eric Milton was with the Reds. He’ll end up in long relief.

    • One would think the pitching is going to get better for the Reds as new arms come in, which could make watching the games more bearable. On the flip side, the bats might get worse once Bruce and then maybe Cozy are dealt. Might be a wash. 🙂

    • Your going to want to watch the new guys in the,second half. I wasn’t going to get the MLB extra innings on directv but I didn’t want to miss watching these young guys.

  4. 1) The umpire is calling some serious out of the zone strikes according to the foxtrax. Guys better be ready to swing.
    2) Bruce seems to just keep it going. I, for one, will miss him in a Reds uniform, but I also understand the logistics of the business…

  5. I’m having to watch this game on the Braves network. The Braves broadcaster might be the worst in baseball. They have laughed, and hooted about how bad the Reds bullpen is yet the Reds won yesterday.
    And everything a Braves player does is a “super-athletic” play. Even if they just walked down the stairs to the dugout.

    They even make George Grande look good, and that is saying something.

    • Joe Simpson used to be a decent announcer, but a few years ago he fell off the deep edge of “homerism”. Chip Caray is pretty awful also. I get MLB Extra Innings, so I watch a lot of different team’s broadcasts, and you have your homers, but these guys are atrocious.

  6. I may just get a Twitter account so I can complain about the Reds announcers talking about anything but baseball.

  7. Bruce’s trade value is sky high right now. Brantley said after his home run tonight that he doesn’t expect Bruce to be in a Reds uniform much longer. I wrote that article a couple weeks ago about the possibility of the Reds and Bruce working out an extension. But that was assuming the Reds could get Bruce for $43/3 years. No way Bruce would agree to that right now.

    Expect a big return for Bruce.

    • Yep … with corner OF’ers going down out there and races getting tighter, I have to think the calls and texts are starting to pour in.

    • 11 months ago, he was worth a guy on the DL..recovering from TJS. While it would be difficult to imagine that his value hasn’t increased, he’s still Jay Bruce.

      I believe it needs to be a contending team…that is desperate because they believe they have a very limited window and they’re willing to dramatically over pay….the Addison Russell trade comes to mind. That requires an enormous amount of luck.

      I hope the Reds make a killing,but I’m skeptical.

  8. Had a flashback last night … watched our old friend Chris Heisey come to the plate with the bases loaded and a chance to crush the Stupid Cubs (who were already losing). After the inevitable (and rather expected happened), I said to the guy next to me …

    Makes me think of Geena Davis to her pitcher about her “sister” in League of Their Own saying, “High fastballs … can’t hit ’em, can’t lay off ’em.”

    Heisey whiffed at one almost at his eyes to end the inning.

    Ah … good memories! And a very nice ballpark to boot!

  9. Always been a big fan and thought last year he finally turned the corner but then he tanked.I wish him well and hope we get a good return for him.

  10. Hope Finnegan realizes you just can’t walk guys in the big leagues.If he does he can be something special.

  11. WOW 15 in a row by Teheran.No watching tonight but I don’t remember him being above 90 on his fastball.

  12. Outstanding 6 innings of what should have been no run baseball if he would have just looked Garcia back on a routine bunt by the pitcher.
    But you can GUARANTEE Mr. Bryan “By The Book” Price will pull Finnegan just cause he’s at 100 pitches. So what? A young strong lefty like Finnegan could easily throw 110-115 pitches with no difference what so ever on the arm vs 100 pitches.
    But Price is so scared he might have to answerr a question after the game, he’ll pull Finnegan in favor of that STRONG Reds bullpen. Who can blame him I guess….

    • Schebler has a lot more power. Waldrop wasn’t hitting well at AAA, which Schebler is now tearing up. Schebler projects to be a starter, Waldrop a reserve, but maybe a good one.

  13. I was on the opposite side with Bruce pretty much every year but what have we played now 40% of the season and he’s really been consistent! That ball he just hit was prob off the wall or 1st few rows in GABP! How can trade a guy we can’t replace? Are they going with the 5 year plan when Votto has gone Ryan Howard on us? Rebuilding with some decent talent but they can’t afford more because they have this $25 mil dollar guy choking up halfway up the bat and doing more “Ole’s” than a Spanish bullfighter on groundballs? We won’t get proven talent back anyway?

  14. Your right but Bruce will demand big bucks which the Reds can’t afford.

    • Its an extension we’re talking about right? So he’s signed thru 2017? Why not play it out for a while and see what happens? They’ll have all the young pitchers together and who knows? Nobody had the Royals doing anything 2 years ago. Nobody had Houston doing anything last year either? Mesoraco might be like my brother-n-law…work a year or two….take 2 years off and chill then eventually back to work? Keep Bruce in the mix unless you get a proven leadoff man or something? If KC would deal Danny Duffy and Cuthbert or somebody then maybe?

      • I agree that Bruce would be a huge loss, not replaced any time soon and that the Reds should not already be giving up on 2017.

  15. Good job by Hoover…..not sure when the last time I typed something similar

  16. It was the Braves, but, decent start by Finnegan.

    Good to see Hoover with a solid inning

  17. Tehran has only given up 11 hits in his last three starts. And look at his record. Talk about lack of run support

  18. Feels good for Hoover to come back from Louisville with a 1-2-3!

    Sadly, I don’t expect Bruce to be manning RF in GABP much longer. He is hotter than a match and could bring in return a couple of very nice pieces to our rebuilding process. I’ve always liked Bruce since his great call up. He had one of the best first months in rookie history. No body could get him out lol. With not many great left handed right fielders out there, I thought he was the next Reggie Jackson! He may not be a career 500 HR hitter, or have a career .300 avg, but he was a 2 time all star for the Reds and flat out CARRIED this franchise sometimes months at a time during our playoff window and peak years. I’ll miss you Bruce!

    *For any of you guys thinking about the possibility of signing Bruce….NOT A CHANCE. The Reds will be signing NO ONE to any major contracts for a few years. For the next 2-3 years minimum, it’s all about paying players the least amount of money and still field a team. And the Redlegs are going NO WHERE…until they get a bullpen. And they obviously aren’t worried about a bullpen right now.

    • You can fix a bullpen fast though! Bob C. might get the checkbook out? My God…they’re already saving the salaries of Cueto, Leake, Frazier, Chapman, and the extra money Marshall was stealing every year? They get BP off the books too!

      • I respectfully disagree. Unless you get lucky and find a couple of guys on the scrap heap, buying s solid bullpen is rather expensive and a very hit or miss endeavour. Developing organizational pitching depth….which is exactly what they’re doing….is the most cost effective and low risk way to build a bullpen. Randy Myers was affordable because Dibble and Charlton were cheap.

        • Lets see what Lorenzen can do? Plus Inglesias and personally I think Homer would do well in the pen! Darvish just came back from TJ surgery and right back on the DL after 3 short starts. Starter turned to closer worked out ok for Eckersley and Smoltz. Wood might be a keeper? Hoover isn’t that bad normally either….pls Straily? Find one good lefty or get him in the Cozart trade and they’d be in good shape

        • Chuck…I was referring to paying Bruce by the way. I didn’t make myself clear!

    • Winker needs a spot to play. Duvall in LF and Hamilton in CF. Unless the Reds decide to trade Winker

      • I know but they don’t know what they have in Duvall really? The league hasn’t worked up a scouting report yet. What do they have in Hamilton? A fun guy to watch with no power and gets hurt a lot!

        • I concur. Who knows with Duvall, two good power months? Hamilton likely is not for sure, but, the Reds seem to think so.

          Winker will need to play, Reds have to find a spot for him

  19. Wood in the game is questionable. He has been pitched a couple of days in a row.

  20. Put this L on Price…..Wood just threw 36 pitches yesterday in 90+ heat? Cingrani threw 1 inning and prob 10 or less?

  21. We had it all the way:) All those lefties? Cingrani must be sore or something?

      • they gave some stat like he had pitched in 7 of the last 10 games, or something. Not sure if that was the exact number, but that was part of the reason the Reds added to the bullpen. There were a few guys who Price didn’t want to use. (As opposed to a lot of them I didn’t want him to use. Ha.)

    • Smith also did a major favor for Ohlendorf last night. Bases loaded, 2-0 count, O. can’t throw a strike, Smith lines out on a pitch way low.

  22. First time all year I thought we were tanking on purpose and it worked out.

  23. Why didn’t they give Wood the pep talk sooner ? He was obviously overthrowing, especially after the weal single.

  24. Wow. Thank the Braves for not being patient when Wood could not throw a strike.

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