2016 Reds / Titanic Struggle Recap

Titanic Struggle Recap: Reds narrowly lose the Ohio Cup

Final R H E
Cleveland Indians (21-17) 7 10 1
Cincinnati Reds (15-26) 2 5 2
W: Tomlin (6-0) L: Cotham (0-3)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score

The Good
–Zack Cozart went 2-3 with a double…and he actually drew a walk! He’s now hitting .328/.333/.520. #VoteZack

–Joey Votto hit a two-run homer — after a Billy Hamilton double — in the fourth that tied the game at 2-2 (for a minute or two anyway). It was Votto’s 198th career home run, which tied him with Barry Larkin for 11th on the Reds’ all-time list.

–Eugenio Suarez did not make an error.

The Bad
–The Reds surrendered 43 runs in these four games against Cleveland. That’s not good, friends and neighbors.

–With one out in the fourth inning, Tim Adleman was forced to leave a game with an apparent oblique injury.

This Reds team isn’t good. I know that. But they simply cannot catch a single break. And you really have to feel for Adleman, who has such a great story and was doing pretty darn well in what may be the only shot he will get at a major league career. I was rooting hard for Adleman to keep doing relatively well (his ERA, after giving up two in 3.1 innings tonight, was still 3.72). It was a fun footnote to a miserable season.

–Two more errors tonight, from unlikely sources: Zack Cozart and Brandon Phillips.

–Caleb Cotham:
(a) Allowed 4 runs in 1.2 innings;
(b) Took the loss to drop to 0-3 on the season;
(c) Has an ERA of 7.36;
(d) All of the above.

Not-So-Random Thoughts
–That’s four losses in a row for the ol’ Redlegs, seven of their last eight, and nine of their last eleven. This season ain’t goin’ so well.

–What do the Reds do if Adleman has to go on the disabled list? (And I can’t imagine he won’t go onto the DL. A strained oblique is not fun for a pitcher. Just ask Anthony DeSclafani.) At some point, they’re going to run out of starting pitchers in this organization.

–The Reds lost the Ohio Cup, if that matters to anyone at all.

–As Joel Luckhaupt noted, since 1910, only once since 1910 have the Reds allowed more runs in a four-game series. That was in 1961, when they gave up 46 to the Cubs.

–Aaah, whatever. Go Reds.

60 thoughts on “Titanic Struggle Recap: Reds narrowly lose the Ohio Cup

  1. Aaaand another injury. Since it’s an oblique, the Reds med-staff will butcher diagnosis and treatment (See Cueto, Johnny and DeSclafani, Anthony) and Adleman might return by August.

    Reds 6th in MLB in mangames lost to DL this yr. Courtesy of http://www.mangameslost.com. There’s a chart that goes back to 2010, but it’s behind a paywall.

    • Reds never seem to win the Ohio Cup. I remember year 1 in 1997 when the Indians swept the Reds out of Riverfront…

  2. Whats the update on Raisel? The Reds that go on the “15” day DL are gone so long that you literally forget about them. Oh well…top 3-4 pick again minimum if they don’t screw it up? Laugh at the pen…watch the new guys when they arrive and look forward to football!

  3. Jason Marquis is a phone call away. Andy and Alan Benes. I can’t think of any other former Cardinals.

  4. Ugly.

    The hidden issue, the elephant in the room, the one nobody’s willing to talk about, is the deeper significance of the trainwreck pile of injuries the pitchers have. Sorry, folks, but it’s not a good sign. Pitchers who start going on the DL for long periods are entering the beginning stages of “injury prone” and career ending”. Sure, these guys will probably be back eventually, but there’s the affect it has on the team’s record while they’re gone, the time it takes for them to get their confidence back and then the time it takes to actually be effective, plus the odds increase that they’ll be injured again.

    When pitchers’ bodies begin breaking down, that can be a death knell. Oh you may get one or two years out of them before the knife or early retirement, but even those years are likely to be compromised and ineffective. So, if some of you are holding your breath that happy days are just around the corner when all these guys on the DL get back, I hate to tell you this, but you might wanna hold off and prepare for even more disappointment. What this sez to me is how important it is for the Reds to get a fresh much smarter GM in there asap, revamp the minor league scouting and development to a much higher level of efficiency, and quit messing around with trades for 2nd tier prospects. Oh, and maybe draft/trade for a hitter now and then.

    • I doubt that an oblique strain indicates that a pitcher’s body is breaking down. I do think it possible that throwing as hard as pitchers do now might lead to more injuries than pitchers seemed to have years ago, but the Reds pitchers we’re talking about are mostly young enough that such gloom about their long-term success seems premature.

    • I completely disagree with this. Injuries just take time to heal. There is plenty of evidence that once a pitcher is completely healthy after undergoing Tommy John surgery for instance, that they can have a very productive “second” career post injury. I am also pretty sure that Johnny Cueto had his issues with oblique injuries while a Red and he came around and bounced back just fine as well. But you are right. Lets call off the rest of this decade as fans and come back in 2021 when they have a chance to be good again. Don’t even bother calling up any healthy pitchers like Robert Stephenson or Cody Reed. They can’t help us. Give me a break……..

      Injuries are part of the game. The front office cannot decide which of the 10+ (projected good to above average) starters that we have should be moved to bullpen roles because of injuries. Once they are all healthy, this process can begin and then we can see what this team can actually do.

    • If they don’t get Baily, Iglesias, DeSclafani back, probably correct. They might be able to keep it under 100 if they get those guys for the 2nd half.

      • I have zero, and I mean zero confidence in players coming back from injury and being effective. This isn’t just a Reds thing, it’s just injuries in general. The Reds always assume that players will return and be effective after injury. The reverse is much more often the case. There are very often setbacks and issues, especially coming off of serious injury. It is part of what makes Cozart’s return so glee-inducing. You can’t rely on players being back until they are back and effective. Until that point, they are injured. You can hope they are back when the medical and training staff say they’ll be back, but each injury is different and so much can go wrong that you can’t expect they will be.

  5. My family and friends from Cleveland can now talk trash all year after sweeping the Ohio Cup. Let’s call up some of our guys from AA like Davis and Garret.

    • Bring up Davis or Garrett both are on the 40 man. Or how about Josh Smith, or Daniel Wright .

    • The only trash that Clevelanders should be talking is the stuff floating in the Cuyahoga River.

  6. I heard another pitcher went down, Adelman. This is looking like 2011 all over again.

    I’m not worried so much about Price’s managerial abilities. I’m sort of considering again just what’s going on with the medical/training staff when it comes to these pitchers. Not that it is on Price, but it started the season after Price got here. People can say all they want, I don’t ever remember every seeing how we were missing pitchers for 2 years at a time (Masset, Burton, Marshall) or having so many pitchers on the DL like in 2011 and now.

    I mean, I could very well see a scenario working out here. 2010, Price’s first year, he doesn’t do anything much to shake things up. Then, his second season, he puts some sort of training program in place. And, the pitchers can’t handle it. We come back great in 2012, even though we just lost Masset for 2 seasons and Burton just came back from 2 seasons of an injury with us, going to the Twins, as well as Bray and Cingrani going down, Cingrani’s first year of his annual pitching/injury rotation. That season ended with Cueto’s injury in the playoffs. And, since then, the pitching as never really been the same.

    With all the new studs coming up, I can’t help thinking Price put them on some kind of training program. And, they can’t handle it,thus getting injured. Latos even talked down about the medical/training staff.

    I mean, I’ve followed the Reds since the mid-70’s days. And, I’ve “never” have heard of the number of injuries I’ve seen with so many pitchers and/or pitchers being injured for so long to the extent we’ve seen since Price has gotten here. I can’t help wondering if our pitchers are doing something different that other pitching staffs aren’t doing. And, the thing is, that’s probably information we will never know. Fluke? I can’t help thinking, highly doubtful it’s a fluke. If a fluke, it would be going on at all positions, wouldn’t it? For, just thinking simple, bad conditioning or over conditioning can be causing injuries, also. And, that’s something a coach could be looking to initiate, implemented by the medical/training staff. And, the pitchers will follow through with it because they want to get on the good side of the coaches and managers and, thus, get playing time.

    If there’s anything to look forward to, if this is like 2011 all over again, we had a great pitching staff the next season.

    But, no one can tell me that all these pitchers on the DL or the pitchers we’ve had being out for so long, that all of that is just a fluke, when it hasn’t happened to this team for decades. I mean, how many of any of the other teams have you heard reaching down to the AA farm system just to find pitchers to take some innings? Or, how many other pitchers have you heard of missing 2 consecutive seasons, all with the same organization? Do some accidents that happen, are some of them flukes? Sure. But, then, there are also reasons for many of them occurring, also, mainly negligence of personnel.

    • I took a look at the current injury report on MLB and didn’t include Reds in what follows. I only took the pitchers but there are 22 recovering from TJ surgery, 21 with other shoulder injuries or surgery, 14 with other elbow injuries or surgery besides TJ, 19 with various leg issues, 12 with other arm or hand injuries (triceps, biceps, forearm), 7 with oblique or lat injuries and a few other hip, rib, abdominal, etc. injuries. Don’t know what that says about the Reds but there are a lot of elbow and shoulder injuries among pitchers around MLB, which shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone.

  7. (Deep Breath) I’ve hesitated to comment on this series…lol.
    I live 5 1/2 hours from Cincinnati, but usually go to at least 15 to 18 games a year at GABP. Each trip is pricey between gas, tickets, lodging and food. I decided I couldn’t financially justify spending that watching a 100 loss (or more) team. But Cleveland is close and I regretfully talked myself into buying tickets to the first 2 games of this series. As a long time Reds fan I’ve seen some bad Reds baseball, but witnessing in person those 2 brutal games in Cleveland were among the most embarrassed I have been as a Reds fan. Just awful, brutal baseball. And of course the team has continued to blow leads, give up gopher balls (up to 71 given up now?), make errors, etc, anything possible to lose. It also made me realize, at least IMO, we got fleeced in the Chapman and Frazier trades. Wasn’t impressed with Peraza in center field or 2nd base. But I’m happy for Frazier and hope he gets to the WS, somewhere he wouldn’t have gotten to with the Reds. Going to Chicago later this year, hoping to catch up with the Toddfather. Until then I will watch this trainwreck known as Reds baseball from afar, and long for the day the team is sold and Walt and all his cronies are gone, and we have a real Manager running this team. Good things happen when you have a good owner and GM, just ask the Pirates and their fans……

    • I agree on the Frazier trade but not the Chapman trade. Chapman is making a lot of money and is a FA after the season, pitches minimal innings that are often very high leverage but just as often not; and was facing a likely suspension from MLB for his domestic violence incident. He just didn’t have a lot of value unfortunately.

      • If they would have traded Chapman when they should have (last summer), they would have gotten a lot more value for him. Alas, they got what they got.

        • I would love to hear what the DBacks were offering in July last year. Rumors were it was quite a package.

        • The All Star game show in July blinded the Reds front office to offers from competitive teams when they would have got a better haul for Chapman and Frazier in comparison to what they got in the off-season.

    • I think it’s way too early to evaluate both the Frazier and Chapman trades. You said you weren’t impressed with Peraza in CF or 2B, neither of which are not his natural positions on the field. IMO, you can’t say we got fleeced after watching him play 2 games. That’s a big overstatement. As for chapman, we weren’t going to sign him anyway, plus with all his issues, they got what they could. People are raving about Rookie Davis thus far, and Jagielo is supposed to be a possible replacement for Frazier.

      As far as your comments about the ownership group, I will leave those alone. I think most of us on here know that Bob is not afraid to spend the money. It may not always be justified, but I would take him 10 out of 10 times versus any of the past few ownership groups. Even a “real” manager couldn’t win with this injury riddled team. I understand the frustration, but pull back the reigns a bit…..

  8. Chances that Stephenson (or Reed) to take Adelman’s spot??

    If anyone else is also wondering, last year the Super 2 service time fell all the way to 2 years plus 130 days (2.130). I can’t find the link right off but i believe I read that MLBTR was projecting 135 days for this year (they had projected 140 last year and were 10 high). If my math is right, 23 May is 130 days to the end of this season which would mean 135 days to season’s end has already passed. But recall that Stephenson would require several extra days at AAA to cover the MLB time involved with the two MLB starts he made in April.

    My guess is that the may prestage Stephenson to take Adelman’s next turn but then send him back like they’ve done previously rather than risk the Super2. The hope would be that in 11 days (there’s an off day in the mix), Moscot would then be available to take the next start in Adelman’s spot.

  9. Thanks, but no thanks. I have no interest in a team that management has no interest in. I’ll just take my almost 50 years of fandom and go away.

      • I wish I shared your confidence in the Reds rebuild. From my mixed traditional and analytic view, I think the rebuild will be a flop and the Reds are going to need to pretty much start over again after 2017. This puts them on a 2020 timetable. It’s sad. I hope I’m wrong and I certainly may be. I’d love to see them in the playoff hunt in 2017 and in the playoffs in 2018 but I think they have targeted the wrong players, got unlucky with injuries and Chapman’s issues, still lack an overall organizational philosophy that I can figure, and have some unmovable contracts that I’m fearing has a good chance to be dead money in not only the far future but the immediate future. They are also not likely to get the influx of TV money they had hoped from their now local TV deal. More money yes, but not as much as hoped. These are really, really troubling signs.

        I would point out that the rebuilding plan is in a ‘binder’ but that is just kicking them while they are down 😉

    • Wally, where were you and what did you do from 2000-2009? Years in which Joey Hamilton, Corey Lidle, and Jimmy Haynes were Opening Day starters?

  10. It is very hard to watch them anymore. I guess I will have to buy the MLB pkg and find another team for the year. Last couple of years it has been the Royals.

    • In 1982, the Reds made some horrid trades in the offseason, let pricey free agents walk, and players they acquired (Clint Hurdle, Cesar Cedeno, Alex Trevino, Jim Kern…) none worked out. The youngsters weren’t ready to play (Paul Householder) and its was a disaster that no one could really see coming at the end of 1981.

      2016? You could see this coming for quite some time.

    • I have a good time floating around watching whichever great, young players are playing at the time… Trout, Harper, Machado, Correa, Arenado, Bryant…. or whatever great pitchers are going that day… Kershaw, Scherzer, Arrieta, Sale, Strasburg, Velazquez, etc.

      Usually, there’s something cool going on! Also gives you a greater appreciation for the game, as a whole, I think.

  11. It might not all be Price’s fault, but I don’t think he’s going to be the man to take us back to winning ways in the future, so in my opinion he needs to go to shake things up. His tenure here has been an unmitigated disaster full of injuries, losing, and bad luck. Just cut the cord and see if things will get better. It can’t get much worse. Back to the pitcher injuries. i know most see it as bad luck, but no other team has anything like this. The Reds need to evaluate their strength and throwing programs for pitchers. I mean, this injury stuff is getting ridiculous. There’s bad luck then there is the Reds.

    • I disagree with your statement that no other teams have anything like this when it comes to pitcher injuries. A look at current injuries by team shows only the Pirates and Astros have no pitchers listed. Most have anywhere from 4-6 with lots of elbow and shoulder injuries and surgeries. It’s the reality of pitchers in this day and age.

      • How many of those have the team’s 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 starters hurt? None. Maybe the Angels… poor Angels.

        • That’s true, Patrick, but that really could have to do with chance. The total number of injured pitchers on a staff seems like a more accurate measure, although even that is not definitive (in evaluating medical staff/conditioning). The Reds’ injured pitchers (exception of Bailey) are mostly young and that might be a factor.

      • Then I disagree on your disagreement. Yeah, pitchers do get hurt for every team, but there is not one team that has had the injuries the Reds have. Check out the lists and tell me one other team that has. Some of it is “chance”, but there is something else to it. As I said the Reds need to reevaluate their strength, conditioning, and throwing programs for pitchers. What could it hurt? Maybe they already have. We’ve had too many injuries for the “dumb luck” excuse. Maybe we’ve just drafted and acquired fragile pitchers.

        • A comment above indicates that there are currently 95 MLB pitchers recovering from injury. I don’t disagree that evaluating the conditioning program makes sense, but remind you that it was only a few years ago when Reds starters didn’t miss a start all year, which is likely more improbable than the number of injuries they now have.

        • I don’t know that this “proves” anything and I’m really not interested in being disagreeable but looking only at arm injuries to pitchers on the first 4 teams on the list I referred to earlier, the A;s have 6 ages 24-28; Angels have 3 ages 24, 27 and CJ Wilson at age 35 and the only “old guy” on the list; Blue Jays 2 ages 29 & 28; Braves 6 ages 24-26.

    • Price gets fired, and I give you …..Jim Riggleman. Exciting, isn’t it?

      This so-called organization likes to dwell on mediocrity, sub-mediocrity and losing. The team that Walt built.

      Josh Smith, already tried AAA mediocrity, will come up to replace the injured Adelman. Or may…….Tim Melville!

      • It will very, very likely be Riggleman with a chance that DeShields will get the call. I’m not happy with either of those choices.

  12. It’s real easy to be a fan of a dominate winning team, real fans stick with their team/players through the winning and losing. I live in Indy and again this season will make the 200+ mile round trip to see them play live on at least 3-4 occasions, with the first being this Saturday vs. Seattle. Would I rather see them win, sure, but I go and support and enjoy the day at the park win or lose. It’s baseball, it’s a grand game and to bail on your team just because they are not winning is sad and pathetic in my opinion.

    • Exactly. We can’t change who we root for any more than we can change our mother. I do sometimes pick an ancillary team with good announcers to root for and to flip to when the Reds’ games get bad. White Sox (announcers are iffy), Marlins and D-Backs are candidates this year.

      I don’t see how the rash of injuries this year are a training problem, or anything more than bad luck. If anything, the Reds have been on the fortunate side of the Tommy John issue over the last 10 years, and the injuries to Disco, Adleman, Moscot don’t seem to have much to do with the arm. Lorenzen got mono, which is nobody’s fault. Lamb had the back problem going back to his KC days.

      Assuming the staff does stabilize by the end of June, I would like to see them go to a 6-man rotation. It spreads the innings out for a staff that has no reason to be overtaxed, and allows everybody to rehab slowly. Plus, it gives management a better look at more guys as starters.

      This organization is much closer to being good than this year indicates. The top 5 starters are out, but apparently not for much longer, and Amir Garrett, Robert Stephenson, and Cody Reed are almost ready. The staff is going to be very good by mid-2017. They do need some offense in the organization.

      • What about the rash of injuries last year? Or the year before? Or the year before that?

        Yes, yes, just all bad luck.

        • Only 3-4 years, ago, they had the same 5 guys start 161 games, and the other was the second game of a double header. None of the starters were really hurt last year, other than Lorenzen and Iglesias getting tired late after having been stretched out for the first time.

          What exactly can the Reds do about oblique injuries and mono? Or Lamb’s back injury when he was with the Royals? Or Moscot’s injuring his non-throwing shoulder in a rundown?

          With hitters, can they coach Cozart to hit the base better? Or Votto not to overwork his quad in the weight room? Or Phillips to dive better? I said in late 2014 that the Reds should move Mesoraco to left, because his bat was too good to leave in an injury-prone position like catcher.

          Injuries happen. Sometimes they cluster, like they have this year to the pitching staff.

    • Don’t think we’re bailing. I think if the fans didn’t care, they wouldn’t be here on a blog about the Reds.

  13. As Swayze said in Roadhouse: “It’s gonna get worse before it gets better”. That and “pain don’t hurt”. Unless it’s your oblique.

  14. There is a certain amount of masochistic pleasure (stay with me here) in bashing your own team, because maybe tomorrow they will surprise you and be a lot better than you expect. Then there is a certain elation or euphoria associated with that.

    What I have seen since 2014 is a lot of fail. Three years in a row. Floundering management decisions. “BAD LUCK”. And so it goes. It’s like they are running in place with repetitive bad decisions.

    Someone brought up 1982 earlier in the thread. Yes, 1982 was a lousy season, and 1983 was not much better (they did have Mario Soto, who made the Reds competitive every 5th day). But by 1984, you could see the young talent starting to emerge from the farm system. I remember when I first saw Eric Davis play in 1984, and I knew right away he was going to be good. 1985 saw more young players emerging, and the Reds signed Dave Parker, who frankly had an MVP year to carry the team to a second place finish in the NL West.

    There is some very good young pitching talent about to come out of the Reds farm system. And this has been a really bad year for injuries. But still, I get the sense that management will fail the fans again. They will make….all the wrong moves.

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