2016 Reds / Game Thread

Reds at Phillies – May 15, 2016

Despite Eugenio Suarez’s best efforts, the Reds (14-22) just can’t seem to bust out of their slump. With last night’s loss, the Reds are now 1-5 in their last six after starting the month of May 4-2. The race for the Central cellar is still hotly contested though as the Brewers lost as well and only sit half a game above the Reds.

Starting Pitchers
The following stats are from 2016:

Screen Shot 2016-05-15 at 9.49.04 AM.png

For the Reds, Dan Straily takes the mound riding a string of three straight quality starts, albeit not the most quality. Over that stretch, Straily has a 3.44 ERA with a 5.26 FIP and has walked eight batters compared 13 strikeouts. Control has not been Straily’s strong suit this season, as he has walked at least one batter in every appearance and has 17 walks on the year.

After three impressive starts at AAA this season, Adam Morgan was called up by the Phillies to fill in at the back of the rotation. So far, he’s been solid in the pros, not having problems with control or home runs, but he hasn’t lasted too deep into games yet. Morgan’s last time out was his best, a 7.0 inning, one-run performance that is only tempered because it came against the hapless Braves.

Starting Lineups

Reds Phillies
1. Tyler Holt (CF)
2. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
3. Joey Votto (1B)
4. Brandon Phillips (2B)
5. Jay Bruce (RF)
6. Adam Duvall (LF)
7. Ivan De Jesus (SS)
8. Tucker Barnhart (C)
9. Dan Straily (P)
1. Odubel Herrera (CF)
2. Cesar Hernandez (2B)
3. Maikel Franco (3B)
4. Ryan Howard (1B)
5. Carlos Ruiz (C)
6. Freddy Galvis (SS)
7. Tyler Goeddel (LF)
8. Adam Morgan (P)
9. David Lough (RF)

Jose Peraza will once again resume his role as moral support.

Rehab Blues
Three Reds pitchers are being put on slower rehab programs following setbacks in each of their returns. Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafani, and Raisel Iglesias all have felt discomfort at one point or another in their rehab process, causing them to be shut down and then start over again. According to manager Bryan Price, the setbacks were not due to a rush to the field, but just a string of bad luck.

“I think we’re being even more deliberate now because of the run of bad luck we’ve had with this. What I want to make sure is clear is we were never fast tracking anybody but it feels like now what we’re doing is pulling back and trying to make sure everyone has even more time,” Price said.

Billy Hamil-run

Billy is still a below-average power hitter even with this uptick in production (.141 ISO and .662 OPS this season), but closer to average is much better than the absolute floor where he was before. The only logical explanation that I can find is that Billy is hitting far more line drives than he has in the past (an uptick of 7.4 percent), but he’s not hitting the ball any harder. Beats me, but I’ll take it.

Sunday Funday

I only wish there was a video of hist bunt attempt later in the game.

Concluding Thoughts
As enticing as a pitcher’s duel between Dan Straily and Adam Morgan may be, I think I’ll watch my Commodores take on #1 Florida instead. It’s almost College World Series time folks, and with the Reds draft coming up, it might just be more important than the actual World Series this time around.

Go Reds!

87 thoughts on “Reds at Phillies – May 15, 2016

  1. I’d like to say how exciting rebuild/reboot/retool process could be, recalling recent Astros, Cubs and/or Royals experiences, but no, Reds process is just boring and discouraging. I hope an ownership change could happen, I think is the only way out of this mediocrity.

  2. Why the Reds continue to waste the time of prospects is beyond my understanding. It’s maddening, really.

    • I’m guessing Peraza is only up because the 10 days minimum down rule disqualified Waldrop or Schebler from being recalled. The rule is waivable in case of injury; I would think it would be for bereavement. However all the info I can find indicates sending a player to the DL is the only event for which the 10 day down rule can be waived.

      • Yes, and important to remember that if Peraza gets hurt at MLB level, his DL time counts as service time. Reds still need about another month of Peraza in minors to get an extra year.

        • I ran the math a couple of days ago. If my logic and calcs were correct, he is within 2 weeks of covering on the year of control issue but then will need probably at least to 1st of July to avoid Super2. To be really sure on the Super2, more like the ASB.

  3. It’s time to get Cozart dealt before he dings the knee or his numbers drop off much further. Cozart in April .361/.355/.556/.911 in 76 PA. Cozart in May .222/.237/.444 .681 in 38 PA. The May Cozart looks very familiar and has no business batting leadoff.

    • As much as I’d love to trade Cozart and get something back for him, I think the rest of MLB knows what he is. He’s a light-hitting, defense-first 30+ yr old reconstructed shortstop who can occasionally throw together short stints of looking like an all-star!

      Even “defense first” isn’t what it used to be. He’s currently 8th in “FG Def” among qualified SS.

      The teams that could use an upgrade at SS really aren’t contending, so what would they want a Cozart for?

      Reds couldnt’ deal Bruce or BP, so i’m almost positive they won’t be able to deal Cozart.

      Fun stat: HIs AVG is 63 points above average. His OBP is 6 points below average.

      • Nobody on this team should be on the All star team. This team is a train wreck. Right now they can’t trade Bruce for squat. Did I catch it last night that is OBP is 285? He just gets worse and worse. Duvall should be batting 4th. I think Votto is trying to hard to carry this team and he has to realize this team is weak at best.

        • I agree. Duvall should be batting cleanup. Makes too much sense though. I like Bruce but: he is what we thought he is.

        • You mean Jay “my .770 OPS is better than the MLB Avg RF .757 OPS” Bruce? Yeah nobody will ever want him. 🙂

      • Yeah, it’ll take a decent trade match up, and most likely a injury to a contenders SS to arise for it to happen. Not expecting a big haul return by any means, but point being that Cozart has show the knee healthy now and they need to pull the trigger as soon as the opportunity arises. All Star votes or not. Keeping my eye on 37 year old Jimmy Rollins for the White Sox. If he gets dinged up, that might make a good fit.

        • Jay has better OPS than JD Martinez , Puig, Peralta, Heyward, Carlos Gonzalez, Mookie Betts and all 6 of them are better than Bruce. That shows you what OPS is. Bruce has a war only better than 2 other RFs. Terrible.

  4. Sure has been a lot of “bad luck” regarding injuries. Did Walt and Bob break a mirror, or is there something fundamentally wrong with how the organization treats injuries?

    • You keep making the same assertion but offer no actual facts. Do the Reds suffer injuries at a higher rate than other teams? Do they have a longer rehab process than other team? Do they suffer “re-injuries” more than other teams?

      • It is rather odd that the Reds are further slowing the rehab efforts of these pitchers, after maintaining all along that they were never rushing the guys in the first place. … Kinda makes me wonder whether the medical staff was too reliant on the players insisting they felt fine, instead of creating a reasonable recovery schedule and having the players stick to it. ….. Heck, Price at one point said Homer could have been ready for Opening Day because they thought his recovery was going so well.

        • I’ve been thinking the same sort of thing. Price also said at one point before Disco’s most recent setback that Disco could be pitching in MLB if the situation were such that the games “meant something” and then quickly covered up by adding a reference to like playoff races in September.

          A person can’t help but wonder given the team’s long term situation why they were taking the quick route to begin with and alternately why they’ve throttled them back to the degree they seem to have done.

      • I don’t have the hard numbers, but I have never seen a run of injuries like the Reds have had over the past three seasons.

        The fact that Bryan Price alluded to taking a closer look at how injuries are dealt with told me a lot.

        Until the injury bug decreases, I’ll be skeptical of the competence of the Reds’ training staff.

  5. I’m sure it will not happen, but the offense could be energizes a bit by having Votto bat second, and it might get him out of his season-long slump, and then Duvall in the cleanup position. The Reds get leads early in many games and then nothing later on.

  6. One thing I’m curious about… If so much of Votto’s problem is how the rest of the league is pitching him, more hard and inside, why did it take opposing pitchers SIX YEARS to catch on?

    • Votto has to be at least a tick slower at reading pitches and getting his bat where he wants it. People are commenting on that funky looking chop swing he takes when he steps out of the box. To me, that looks like his spoiler swing he uses to foul off pitchers’ pitches; and, he is struggling to get it to the pitches he wants to spoil.

      • The Ferrari has blown a gasket and the parts to fix it seem to be on backorder? Its hard to watch….esp after the spring he had and after his 2nd half last year!

  7. Also thought it was interesting that Price said on the pregame show that Votto was supposed to get caught in a rundown in the first inning yesterday, give Pereza time to score before the out was recorded, but Votto thought he could get there, so he didn’t stop and was tagged out. … Terrible base-running team.

  8. Looked like ball 4 but instead its 4-6-3…..the Reds are like the nursing home for big innings.

  9. I caught a bat one time in Atlanta swung by Andrew Jones. There was a 12 year old kid sitting straight across from me with an Andrew Jones jersey on with such a sad face I couldn’t help myself, I gave him the bat. Turns out Jones was his absolute favorite and he cherished that bat for many years. His parents still send me a Xmas card every year lol

    • Heck, I’m wondering how far Lamb will be able to go on Monday. Hate to see him come walking off the mound after only a few innings again. Price said on the pregame show that Lamb still has just a small amount of discomfort but that he could pitch. Hope so.

  10. This is the last 20 mil year for Joey….up to 25/mil next year! I sort of believe him when he says he would walk away if he sucked but that’s like $175 mil? He needs Marty to say he’s no longer elite again?

    • That was a pretty odd statement from Joey. What I took from that is that he’s tried (most likely) a few different adjustments and none of them have worked. Gotta be frustrating when you’re accustomed to being one of the best 20 or 30 hitters in history and suddenly you’re a AAAA-level replacement player.

      • He obv a bright guy and I think he’s just thinking up there too much! He’ll get it going….kind of scared the new normal is .280 with 22 HRs and .390 obp but time will tell?

      • Replacement player, he leads to team in obp and is basically league average in OPS, if this is replacement player why do they not just replace their current roster with these replacements

        • Replacement level takes defense and base running into account. Not trying to be negative, just trying to see it from his point of view.

          Coming into this game he was at 0.1 fWAR, so technically above replacement level.

        • So technically his fWAR is also saying that pretty much Joey Votto = Brandon Allen then right? 🙂

    • I judt don’t understand JV sometimes.
      It seems like he doesn’t swing hard sometimes, he makes AT LEAST 1 out per series on that rinky dink check swing he does, he chokes up like a little leaguer, etc, I think he could be a top 2-3 player in baseball if his approach was different.
      Also, how do you play like an MVP the entire 2nd half of last season and all the way thru spring training this season, but then fall off the map as soon as the season starts?

      • Pitchers are throwing him inside now. Go to Brooks Baseball and look at his heatmaps. He basically has to learn how to hit all over again.

      • Its only Mid-may, Votto was great in April last year, Awful in May and other-worldly in the 2nd half. Barry Larkin was always dreadful in april and even Marlon Byrd last year was horrendous before Memorial Day. Its a long season and Votto will be ok. Wait for the humidity and heat and a long home stand. He does seem to overthink/analyze though.

  11. In Louisville, Moscot’s finished. He goes 5 innings for the day, throws 69 pitches/ 38 strikes. He was definitely running out of gas starting in the 4th as he had gotten through 3 innings on less than 30 pitches
    Moscot’s line: 5.0IP;2H;2R;2ER;3BB;4K;1HR

  12. You have to go to a righty there? Your lefty has been awful and now you’ve got a guy that’s 2-2 against him w/2 men on. We’ll gladly take it though! I said last week that we’d know when Suarez is getting right when he gets a hit to right and he had one last night!

  13. Suarez will be a 270-280 hitter with 15 homers for a lot of years.I will take a bunch more just like him.

    • He’s got more power than that….esp playing in GASmallpark. I’m going to say 24-25+

  14. INDY you are probably right about more homers.I just like him and others that can hit between 270-275 on a consistent basis

  15. It seems that Suarez hits well in the 2 hole with Votto protecting him. Duvall continues to perform.

  16. He got out of it but 2 walks and a hit by the pitcher can’t happen after your team puts up 5 runs.

  17. After what 35 games this year,Suarez,Duvall and Barnhart have stepped up when given a chance.Now lets see Peraza,Winker and others to see what they can do

  18. I just tuned in. Didnt want to watch another disappointment…..and its 7-0 Reds. Figures

  19. Hardest part of the season for me if watching Votto struggle. I knew we were going to be bad, but I was hoping to get to at least watch a master at work when Joey was at the plate. Really sucks to know the haters just love they can bad mouth him this year.

    • Me too.
      Votto is my guy. And has been since he was in AAA
      Kills me to watch him struggle.
      Even on a day like today with a guy like Morgan on the hill he struggles.

      • I know. I keep saying to myself, “it’s still early, Votto will be fine”. At what point is it now “still early”? He’s looked lost for awhile now and down to .215 after today.

    • He got out of some jams, but I’m not sure I’d say he pitched well. He allowed 9 base runners through 5 IP, a 1.8 WHIP and was not very efficient with his pitches at all. 109 P should have got through about 7 IP not 5. Kudos to him for hanging in there tough to get out of the jams he got himself into though.

  20. Hope Joey throws a couple of balls to the kids above the dugout before this one is over. Otherwise its a bit of a jerk move.

  21. Anyone else besides me feel like we needed those two runs before the Phillies bat in the ninth?

  22. Brandon is great, but those plays are the plays that make me mad.
    He was trying to be “Brandon Phillips” when he could have EASILY just turned and flipped for an out at 2nd.

  23. Is Moscot going to come off the DL? If so, is it time for Mr. Hayes to take a little trip down I-71 to Louisville?

  24. as a lifelong reds fan, i was upset by Votto’s behavior today. in 1965 as a10 year old i had the pleasure of meeting my hero Vada Pinson at Connie Mack Stadium. i know Philly fans can be tough, but what he did today made me lose all respect for him.

    • Lost all respect for him? LMAO!
      He was having a very rough day not to mention a rough season so far.
      He was clowning around and having some fun with the fans.
      Lost all respect for him…..GIVE ME A BREAL lololol

  25. I can’t believe all the people giving Votto grief (including the Phillies announcers) over him having some fun with the fans. He likes to joke around. It was a joke. The fans laughed at it. Chill out.

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