2016 Reds

Going For It In 2016

The Cincinnati Reds have made no credible attempt to mask their true intentions for the 2016 season, despite what Walt Jocketty might say. A fan knows a rebuild when they see one and calling it a “reboot” is nothing but PR lip service. From the quotes in the press to their actions on the trading block, the Reds are very clearly making no attempt to stay competitive in 2016. Teams trying to stay competitive don’t trade Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman.  Teams trying to stay competitive also don’t pencil in Chapman for 60 innings pitched, but that’s a different article altogether (one, thankfully, that no longer needs to be written).

What if the Reds did an about-face overnight? What if the Reds front office decided it was in the franchise’s best interest to compete now?

The circumstances revolving around a shift this radical would have to be equally radical.  Perhaps Bob Castellini received a visitor claiming to be from the future with tidings of success.  Perhaps he was being held hostage by anti-rebuilding terrorists.  Regardless of what could cause such a shift, let’s assume a shift has taken place.

So, how do the Reds get from their current position to a World Series title?  As it turns out, this is a very complicated question.  They are in a significantly worse position to compete immediately than they were a few months ago.  How does one go about undoing the damage?

Before we get into that, let us first take stock of what the Reds are working with in the personnel department.  The following chart is each Reds player that has, in my estimation, a shot at receiving some sort of playing time in 2016.  The accompanying number is a projected WAR figure from the Steamer projection system, pro-rated to 600 plate appearance for position players, 450 PA for catchers, 200 innings pitched for starters, and 65 IP for relievers.  This method will give us an idea of what to expect if a certain player plays most of the season.

chart1

This list doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence.  Two of the top 6 players are injured pitchers, one more so than the other, who won’t be ready for opening day.

Before we go further, it is important to remember a few things when dealing with projection systems.  First, projection systems look for a “most likely” outcome.  So, after spitting out all the possibilities of what a player may do or can do, the system will attempt to give that player a rating based on his own injury history, aging data from players of his type, minor-to-major transition data, and other factors.  For example, the fact that Votto is projected for 4.4 WAR is not an indictment of his skill, it’s simply based on the reality that he is getting older and has missed major time in 2 of the last 4 seasons with injuries.

Now, let’s construct a roster based solely on the projections and see what it looks like.  The sWAR (seasonal WAR) column is my guess at playing time adjustments. For example, if Votto is going to be healthy we’ll project him for more than 600 PA and if Adam Duvall is going to be a bench player we’ll project him for less than 600 PA. An asterisk denotes a starter.

chart2

A few particular notes about the above roster.  I’m assuming Homer Bailey misses April and May.  During this time, Daniel Wright will be on the roster as a reliever, netting around 20 IP, and Rookie Davis is in the starting rotation.  When Bailey returns, Davis moves to the bullpen and Wright is optioned back to either AA or AAA.

Also being used in bullpen roles, rather than starting, are Michael Lorenzen, John Moscot, and Keyvius Sampson.  Normally guys like this are left to develop as starters, but if we’re throwing caution into the wind, they could be decent bullpen arms in 2016.

For position players, you see Jesse Winker is pressed into a starting role.  He is simply the most likely to do well in LF for the Reds this year if there are no service time issues to deal with.  Scott Schebler and Adam Duvall are your left- and right-handed bench bats, respectively, while also serving as defensive backups.  Jose Peraza and Alex Blandino are your infield utility men, with Tucker Barnhart spelling Devin Mesoraco behind the plate. Returning starters Votto, Brandon Phillips, Zack Cozart, and Eugenio Suarez round out our beginning roster.

In total, this roster is projected to accumulate 33 wins above an entirely replacement level team.  Let’s make the safe assumption that there will be some amount of injuries and the Reds will have to bring up lesser AAA players for some amount of playing time.  Because of that, let’s adjust the team WAR down by 3 wins making our starting point 30 WAR.  I won’t have to tell you that is quite underwhelming.

From 2013 to 2015, the average National League division winner accumulated 45.2 WAR.  The average NL wild-card team accumulated 41.6 WAR. The team who squeaked in with the lowest team WAR was the 2014 San Francisco Giants at 35.4 WAR. We should probably assume the Reds won’t be overly lucky, so in order to get up to this average level of production we need to find ourselves a minimum of 11.6 more wins.  Let’s begin!

Free Agency

At the time of this writing, there are only 2 impact free agents available that would fit the Reds circumstances, Dexter Fowler and Ian Desmond.  I don’t really like Desmond all that much, for multiple reasons, so, let’s go ahead and sign Dexter Fowler and his 2 WAR for 3 years and $50 million.  Maybe 3/$50M doesn’t do it, but in our scenario that doesn’t matter; make it 3/$70M, because we’re going for it!

Fowler would play LF and relegate Winker to a bench role which sends Schebler and his 0 WAR projection back to AAA.  Adding Fowler’s 2 wins and adjusting Winker from 1.1 wins to 0.3 wins brings in a grand total of 1.2 extra WAR.  There is still quite a way to go.

Trades

The trading block is where big gains need to be made if the Reds are to compete.  The Reds have a fairly well-stocked and fairly well-regarded farm system.  The Reds will have to leverage it heavily if they are going for it in 2016.

There is a pretty big hole in RF in the guise of Jay Bruce.  He’s been bad the last 2 years, injuries notwithstanding.  His peripherals looked promising for a lot of 2015, but ultimately reverted to normalcy.  While I tend to agree with keeping Bruce in the real world and letting him rebuild some trade value, in “Go for It Land” we can’t wait around for that. Also, the potential PR backlash of trading Bruce, Frazier, and Chapman would go away when the fans see how dedicated the Reds are to going for it in 2016!

To find an impact trade, I decided to look for productive, expensive, older players.  These are the kind of players that contenders would be more likely to part with since they are unlikely to be build-around pieces for the future. Bruce’s replacement should be Jose Bautista and his 4 WAR; a huge upgrade.  The Reds could attempt to acquire Bautista from Toronto for Bruce and minor leaguers Amir Garret and Nick Howard.  Maybe that doesn’t get it done, so the Reds could offer to eat Bruce’s contract.  They are going for it, after all! The success of Edwin Encarnacion in Toronto might be the grease needed to push this deal through. Adding Bautista for Bruce increases the Reds team WAR by another 3.3 wins.

Another older, expensive, productive veteran that the Reds could grab is Adrian Beltre, along with his 4 WAR projection.  This one might be a bit tricky to pull off since Beltre is likely going into the Hall of Fame as a Texas Ranger. If Jocketty and Dick Williams can convince Texas that super-prospect Joey Gallo needs the starting role at 3B in Texas, they might be able to bring Beltre back for Jose Peraza, Eric Jagiello, and Nick Travieso. If Texas in interested in unloading the contract of Elvis Andrus, the Reds may have to take that on in place of Jagiello or Travieso. Once Beltre is acquired Suarez can move back to SS and Cozart can be benched.  These moves will net another 3.4 WAR. Peraza has now been traded 3 times in less than a year.

On the pitching side, the Reds aren’t in quite as bad shape. If Raisel Iglesias, Anthony DeSclafani, and John Lamb keep on their paths, Bailey comes back strong, and a few things fall the Reds way, this staff may be fringe playoff caliber.  That is a big “if.”  Adding a single front-line starter should be considered a priority.  Since the Reds are going for it, it’s time to make a bold move.  Let’s have the Reds trade Robert Stephenson, Tyler Stephenson, Yorman Rodriguez, Keury Mella, and whomever else they want to the Dodgers for Clayton Kershaw.

The Dodgers might be averse to trading their franchise player, so this is certainly going to have to be an overwhelming package.  You may be thinking “no way the Dodgers trade Sandy Koufax 2.0” and you are probably correct.  In “Go for It Land,” however, we throw caution into the wind! The Dodgers, after all, have the prospects needed to succeed at the trade deadline by adding the best available starter for their stretch run. The Los Angeles roster is deep enough to stay in contention up until that point, while simultaneously emptying every remaining Reds prospect of note. After this move, the Dodgers are still the best in the West and would have the consensus #1 farm system in baseball along with the ability to carry the #1 payroll.  Can you say dynasty?  This is likely how the Reds would try to sell this to the Dodgers front office. Perhaps some smoke and mirrors would also be required.  This move brings in Kershaw’s 6.5 WAR in place of Stephenson’s 1.9 WAR; a staggering increase of 4.6 WAR.

Without further ado, here is our shiny, new roster:

chart3

At 44.8 total WAR, we are closer to the average division winner (45.2 WAR) than the average wild-card team (41.6 WAR) from the previously discussed 2013-2015 period. While additive team WAR is definitely not an exact science, there is a strong correlation between high team WAR and final win-loss records.  The main things that can tip the playoff needle one way or another are sequencing variance, batted ball variance, and injuries.  Let’s just go ahead and assume everything will break right for the Reds; might as well!

Well, we’ve made it, folks.  That was a long, busy off-season.  I’m glad it’s over. Given a lot of luck, a lot of phone calls, a lot of shrewd negotiating…as well as two future Hall-of-Famers and two all-stars…even the Cincinnati Reds could be contenders in 2016!

What’s that? Yeah. I agree. It’s probably a good thing we’re rebuilding. Or is that rebooting? I always get those confused.

56 thoughts on “Going For It In 2016

  1. It’s not as crazy as it sounds when you lay it out like that. Other teams (looking at you Orioles, Angels, WhiteSox) routinely gut their farm systems to win now and are no better or worse off for it. And on the flipside, the Cubs had to reaaaaally suck for 4 years in order to build via the draft just to gett to the position they’re in now—-a team with a 3-4 year window of competitiveness like the Reds enjoyed. Still, they haven’t won anything, so we’ll see.

    • My O’s are getting ready to sacrifice 2 draft picks to sign Fowler and Gallardo. I’m on board with that. I’m not on board with that horrible Chris Davis contract though. That one is gonna come back and bite them sooner rather than later I’m afraid.

    • True that the Cubs haven’t won anything yet, but I’d say they are looking at more than a “3-4 year window.”
      They just promoted their top 4 prospects from last year (Bryant, Russel, Soler and Schwarber) and since they all didn’t play a full season in 2015, the Cubs will have them for at least 6 more seasons. Not to mention Anthony Rizzo who is at least a top-20 player in the league, only 26 years old and signed to a very reasonable contract through at least 2019.
      Even after promoting those 4 players, they still have a top-5 farm system with 6 top-100 level prospects.
      They also have deep pockets, one of the games best managers in Joe Maddon and one of the most highly regarded GMs in Theo Epstein.

      I’m in no way a Cubs fan and hope the Reds beat them every game they play but if I’m betting on 1 team to be competitive for the next 10 years its the Cubs.

      • The way the Cube reinvented themselves and their current situation is the envy of every other baseball team. They built themselves a franchise for the long haul.

  2. That was a fun article. Only if….
    Since you are going for it, you would have to re-build the front office first. Fire Jocketty and Williams and bring in Trader Jack McKeon as President of Baseball Ops and Ned Colletti as GM. Colletti, the ex-Dodger GM would trade his mother for an expensive, aging veteran player. That Dodger connection might help with Kershaw too.
    I’m glad you have Iglesias as the 2nd highest projected WAR. He is my pick for breakout player of the year in the NL.

  3. Good exercise in additive WAR. My first thought was that Peraza is becoming the personification of the influence of fantasy concepts on the real world game having been traded twice within a year in the real world and now again in your exercise all based on projections of what he might be able to do once he actually starts playing at the MLB level.

    • Very astute observation, Jim. That’s pretty much exactly where I was coming from. Everyone agrees that he has some future value; perhaps no on wants to find out how much future value.

  4. If Raisel Iglesias, Anthony DeSclafani, and John Lamb keep on their paths, Bailey comes back strong, and a few things fall the Reds way, this staff may be fringe playoff caliber.

    *********

    I agree with this which is why I believe the Reds should take their lumps this year as they focus on getting the pitching sorted out. They have the pitching resources to build a playoff caliber staff and to leverage the sort of big deals they need to make on the position player side; but they need to use this year to define who they keep and who they are willing to let go for various levels of return.

    • Might as well! We’re going for it! We need a LaMarre or two in our lives!

  5. Patrick, you’re a smart man and a fine writer and this was an interesting intellectual exercise….but now the Flat Earthers will be complaining that the Reds could’ve had Kershaw all season.

    • Yep, Patrick, you should have labelled it:

      EXERCISE EXERCISE EXERCISE

      In my old bay we would occasionally hop to and do a couple of jumping jacks or push ups when a newbie was present and such a message came through just to add to the confusion 🙂

    • Appreciate the complement, Chuck. Just trying to live up to high bar set by the rest of the writers here.

    • I almost put a note about Hoover in the column because I figured someone would ask. A gold star for you, Scott.

      Basically, from 2014 to 2015, Hoover’s K% dropped more than 30% (from around 27.3% to around 19.7%) and his walk rates both years were north of 11%. There isn’t much success to be had from relievers with those kinds of numbers.

      As such, pro-rating the projections for guys like Sampson, Moscot, and Lorenzen to 65 IP instead of 200 IP, they actually all project to be better relievers than Hoover. Of course, that doesn’t take the mental aspect into account of shifting from SP to RP, but that was beyond the scope of this article.

  6. Price said yesterday Hoover is first in line to take the closer role. Leaving him off must have been an oversight.

    • Nope. See above. The Reds aren’t going for it in 2016 in the real-world, which is why they’ll use a sub-par pitcher like Hoover in that role.

  7. Thanks everyone for reading. I won’t be making anymore comments for awhile. My wife gave birth to our first child last night and I’m just home showering and grabbing a few things. Won’t have access to a decent posting platform until Sunday or so.

    Everyone enjoy your weekend!

  8. Congratulations. Hope Momma Jeter and baby are doing fine. If it is a boy, keep putting the whiffle ball or any ball in his left hand.

  9. College baseball games got started yesterday. With the Reds #2 overall pick in the June draft they more than likely go the college route. Not a good year talent-wise on positional players for the Reds to have the #2 pick. No Kris Bryants or Kyle Schwarbers available this year. Unlike recent past drafts, a lack of SS’s at the top of the draft is a bit of a concern. Reds are still linked to University of Florida LH pitcher AJ Puk. If you would like a handful of college names to watch here is a small list.

    1. LHP Jason Groome IMG Academy 6’6″ 180
    2. LHP AJ Puk Univ. of FL 6’7″ 230
    3. OF Corey Ray Univ. Of Lou. 5’11” 185
    4. RHP Alec Hansen Univ.of OK 6’7″ 235
    5. OF Kyle Lewis Mercer Col. 6’4″ 200
    6. OF Buddy Reed Univ. of FL 6’3″ 200
    7. SS Delvin Perez Int. Bas. Acad. 6’3″ 170
    8. RHP Connor Jones Univ. of VA 6’3″ 200
    9. 3B Nick Senzel Univ. of TN 6’1″ 205
    10. RHP Kyle Funkenhouser U. of Lou. 6’2″ 220
    11. 3B Bobby Dalbec Univ. of AZ 6’4″ 215
    12. RHP Logan Shore Univ. of FL 6’2″ 215
    13. OF Nick Banks TX A&M 6’0″ 200
    14. RHP Cal Quantrill Stanford 6’3″ 185
    15. RHP Jordan Sheffield Vandy 6’0″ 185

    One note, the U of FL team has three 1st round projections and the UF baseball team will be at UK in Lexington, KY on March 25-27, a Fri-Sat-Sun.

  10. Baseball related news…..RIP Tony Phillips! Haven’t looked but has Votto even pulled off a .443 obp season? You just don’t have career seasons in your mid to late 30s naturally though? This news just in….steroids aren’t good for your heart!

    • Hard to say if he used PEDs or not. Do PEDs help your batting eye? I mean the guy wasn’t exactly a power hitter and pitchers generally didn’t work around him. He just didn’t swing at bad pitches.

      Phillips was a really fine ballplayer and it’s a shame that he’s gone. You could put him pretty much anywhere on the diamond and he would provide great ABs without embarrassing himself defensively.

      • And he had a neat stance and swing. That is always worth bonus points in my book.

  11. I saw a Reds ST camp picture today in which two guys who looked like Brandon Finnegan and Mike Lorenzen were wearing uniform numbers previously worn by Tony Peña and Todd Frazier. From there I somehow ended up on the BBRef team uniform numbers page for the Reds:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/uniform-numbers.shtml

    If you are having a slow time when you read this consider being like me and hop on over there and while some time away looking at the list of players who have worn each uniform number in the history of the Reds franchise including the years each person wore the specific number..

    I was amazed in two ways. First, by the names from during my teen years and adult lifetime which I did not recognize at all; and, secondly by the names I recognized but had no recollection of them ever being a Red. Also there are a lot of familiar Reds names who switched numbers; for instance Barry Larkin was #15 until Kurt Stillwell was traded opening up not just SS for Barry but also uniform #11.

  12. Patrick, congrats on the birth of your child! Always enjoyed your jdx posts. Looking forward to your articles.

  13. +500 for this post (and another +250 for the first one)

    Of all the “newfangled stats” I find WAR one of the easier ones to grasp and apply. You did a great job of laying out the HUGE gap we’d have to close to contend this year (and probably next). Thanks for the insight … and some hope for the coming years.

  14. If that’s what it would take to compete, woof…

    Definitely a fun article to read and fantasize about, but I personally would hate to see the farm system gutted like that.

    Congrats on the new child. Hope the wife and the little one are healthy and happy!

  15. Congrats on the new child. Hope the wife and the little one are healthy and happy!

    Your nights of peaceful sleep are over for at least the next 18 years! 🙂

  16. Looks like Gallardo to O’s is a done deal. O’s forfeit #14 pick if it becomes official. Next up, will O’s go for Fowler which would cost them the #28 pick; or, might they be ready to get serious about trading for JBruce???

    • I think Fowler will be the route they go but it isn’t a forgone conclusion. The O’s farm system isn’t so great and it’s likely that the talent they’d need to part with to get Bruce won’t be nearly what the 28th pick will turn out to be. There are some serious questions about Bruce and rather he can turn it around after 2 bad seasons. There are also other OF still on the market who could be had in trade for less than the value of that 28th pick. I’m curious as to what they’ll do.

  17. Been away from computer a couple days, but congrats on new baby, Patrick. Hope all is well.

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