My musings on the Todd Frazier trade…
The Reds really, really like Jose Peraza, who just may be the next Dee Gordon.
I’m not going to sit here and write that the fact that Peraza’s on-base rate sunk once he reached Triple-A, that he’s never walked much, or that he possess basically zero power isn’t worrisome.
But I also see player that rose steadily through the Braves system and reached the majors at age 21. The talent, however raw and unmolded it may be, is clearly there. Perhaps Peraza is the next Dee Gordon? (Hat tip to my good friend Brendan for originally proposing this comparison.)
Let’s compare Gordon and Peraza’s minor league statistics.
|Stolen bases/Success rate||227/76%||210/81%|
|On-base plus slugging||.748||.729|
Gordon first appeared in the majors at age 23. He racked up 4.9 bWAR in his age-27 season last summer, only his second full season in the big leagues. If Peraza — who the Reds control through 2021 — can approach that that level of production in a few years, this trade will go down as a win for the Reds.
A left-field platoon of Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler would be heavy on power…and strikeouts.
Duvall’s combined minor and major league slugging percentage is .409. Schebler’s is .500. On the other hand, Duvall’s combined minor and major league strikeout rate is nearly 31 percent. Schebler’s is nearly 33 percent. And neither player walks at all.
I am interested to see what both Duvall and Schebler do with regular playing time. Between them, the duo have only logged 189 plate appearances in the majors, with Schebler only recording 40 of those.
If there was such a thing as a honeymoon period for new general manager Dick Williams, that time has passed.
For the first time in recent memory, the Reds are being judged harshly in a major trade. The club nailed the Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon trades, and obviously the original deal for Latos and the swap for Shin-Soo Choo worked out really well. The early returns on the Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake trades are encouraging, too.
I don’t think the Reds necessarily boxed themselves into a corner by not wanting additional young pitching (to be potentially flipped later on) and instead settled for lesser-talented position player prospects. I also don’t believe the Reds were content to acquire two position players who are near-ready or ready for the majors in favor of more talented prospects.
It’s clear that the Reds are big Peraza fans. Williams appeared on Mo Egger’s show on Wednesday and said as much.
“It was very important to us to get a key player that had a very good chance of being an everyday big leaguer — especially at an impact position,” Williams said. “That’s why we were keyed on Peraza from the beginning. Our scouts like him a lot.”
Fairly or unfairly — especially since Walt Jocketty retains the final say in baseball operations this season — Peraza’s future performance will always be connected to Williams.